Post by Robert Waller on Jan 8, 2023 16:12:46 GMT
Eastern England has been a significant growth area for several decades now, and therefore is entitled to extra parliamentary representation in the Boundary Commission's periodic reviews. After initially suggesting that a new and extra seat should be shared between Suffolk and Essex, in the revised recommendations published in November 2022 a re-think meant that the county border to be crossed will be that of Suffolk and Norfolk – and the division scheduled to donate the latter’s contribution is South Norfolk, while retaining a seat of that name as well.
Like its neighbour, the SW Norfolk constituency where the MP is Liz Truss, South Norfolk has a history of marginality but has now become very safe for the Conservative party. Unlike South West, this seat was not won by Labour in the 1950s (though Christopher Mayhew did hold it between 1945 and 1950 and agricultural trade unionist George Edwards twice won as far back as the early 1920s). However the margins of the Conservative victories in the ‘50s were consistently slender: somewhat over 2,000 and 3,000 in 1950 and 1951, then a mere 865 in the January 1955 byelection caused by the expulsion of Peter Baker and his seven year jail sentence for forgery. The new MP John Hill then only won by 1,475 in the general election later in 1955 and by 2,733 in 1959. Although it did not fall to Labour as they formed a government in the 1960s, the majorities remained thin; Hill held on by only 119 votes in 1966. From that point on, however, the Tory lead ballooned, surpassing 19,000 in 1979 and 17,000 in 1992. By the time of the first Blair landslide, the former holder of three Cabinet posts John Macgregor still won by well over 7,000 - the second highest majority in 1997 was Gillian Shepherd’s 2,464 next door in South West. In December 2019, Richard Bacon’s majority for the Tories was over 21,000, the highest ever figure in a South Norfolk contest.
Of course there have been boundary changes through the history of the seat, for example the town of Thetford was included between 1950 and 1983, but these have not been very important in explaining South Norfolk’s transition away from marginality. More significant has been the decline of agricultural trade unionism, which was unusually strong in the county of Norfolk, as indeed agriculture itself has become both less labour-intensive and less dominant in the economy. By the time of the 2011 census only 3.1% of all workers in South Norfolk were employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing – though that was still in the top decile of constituencies at 61st place in the rankings. Over four times as many were working in human health and social care activities, for example. Norfolk has also swung towards the Conservatives not only as the political cleavages here have become more aligned with those nationally, but also with that large number of incoming residents which has stimulated the increasing number of constituencies.
South Norfolk on its present boundaries is situated entirely inland form the coast, west and south of Norwich and with a long border with Suffolk. It is based on the small towns of Diss, Harleston and Loddon, and numerous villages. Another centre of population lies in the Norwich suburbs, such as Old Costessey and Cringleford, where the growth of the city has in some places effectively burst its borders into South Norfolk District. Indeed some of these enlarged villages are as populous as the towns in the more rural part of the seat: both Diss and Old Costessey have over 7,000 residents, and Cringleford with 3,000 is a little larger than Loddon.
In local council elections, the main battle in South Norfolk is between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. In the most recent, all out, elections for the South Norfolk authority in May 2019, the overall number of councillors returned was 35 Conservatives, 10 Liberal Democrats and one Labour. Some wards are not currently in the constituency of the same name, but of those which are, the LDs won Ditchingham (two councillors), Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross (one) and Old Costessey (three). Labour’s sole success was in Loddon & Chedgrave ward, split with the Tories. These results are probably largely due to local and personal factors, as there are no discernible correlations with demographic variables: Old Costessey does not have higher educational qualifications than average, for example despite not being far from East Anglia University. Loddon is only a little more working class than the norm for the constituency, and indeed distinctly less so than Harleston (35% routine and semi-routine workers), where the Tories won and Labour finished bottom of the poll in 2019, so behind a Liberal Democrat and an Independent. In the more recent May 2021 Norfolk county council elections, the Conservatives won easily everywhere except Costessey, which was narrowly taken by the Liberal Democrats – but that county electoral division is split between constituencies because New Costessey has been included in the Norwich South seat since 1997. Labour again did reasonably well only in Loddon.
Despite this local election pattern, the Liberal Democrats have finished third in the South Norfolk constituency in the last three general elections – in 2019 they only managed 14% to Labour’s 24%. They and their predecessors, the Liberals, had been runners up in seven successive contests between 1983 and 2010 inclusive; indeed that was probably why South Norfolk was able so effectively to resist the New Labour onslaught in 1997 and 2001, when the opposition was fairly evenly divided with the LDs. South Norfolk was also rather evenly divided between Remain and Leave in the 2016 referendum (the whole council reported around 51% for Leave), which was a strong factor in a rather static December 2019 result, with the Tory share remaining almost unaltered and a six percent swing from Labour to the LDs, which greater enthusiasm for ‘remaining’ will have appealed more to some than Labour’s equivocation.
There will be major boundary changes before the next election, if the Commission’s revised report is enacted. Six wards are transferred out of South Norfolk and into a new and extra constituency that crosses the border with Suffolk, to be called Waveney Valley. The total electorate involved is around 28,500. These are the wards of Beck Vale, Dickleburgh & Scole, Bressingham & Burston, Bunwell, Diss & Roydon, Ditchingham & Earsham and Harleston. Thus two of the small towns in the seat (Diss and Harleston) would be removed. However, as South Norfolk’s electorate needs to be partially topped up in compensation, some territory is added in exchange, from the Mid Norfolk seat. This is essentially the town of Wymondham, which is already in the South Norfolk district, and was in the South Norfolk constituency until 1983. Wymondham (pronounced Windham), with its population of around 14,000 (and growing) will now clearly be the largest in the seat. By the time of the May 2019 local elections redrawn wards were already in use, and Wymondham now covers two wards. The Conservatives won North and the Liberal Democrats South.
Overall, though, both the redrawn South Norfolk and the new Waveney Valley will be safely Tory in parliamentary terms. In South Norfolk the numerical majority will be slightly reduced to notionally less than 20,000. The Suffolk section of Waveney Valley actually includes parts of four Conservative seats: Central Suffolk & Ipswich North (including Eye and Fressingfield), Bury St Edmunds (villages like Ricklingham and Gislington), Waveney (including Bungay) and Suffolk Coastal (such as Halesworth), so the ex-South Norfolk section is actually the largest single ingredient in the pot-pourri, although it only comprises well under half of the whole. As with the extra seats in Cambridgeshire and Hertfordshire, there will be a net gain for the Conservatives at Westminster in the form of the new Suffolk/Norfolk constituency.
One perhaps unlikely concern to be found within South Norfolk (old and new boundaries) is the Lotus car complex at the hamlet of Hethel in Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross ward; set on a former airfield there is as well as the factory also a test track, a driving school and even a visitor facility.
www.lotuscars.com/en-GB/factory-tours
Lotus may no longer be involved in the astronomically expensive international big business that is Formula One racing, but they will forever be known for their six drivers’ championships and an extra constructors’ crown. In South Norfolk, having seen so many chequered flags in the past, the Conservatives will still be in pole position as the red lights go off for the start of future general elections, while other parties risk remaining stuck on the starting grid.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 21.4% 75/650
Owner-occupied 74.7% 78/650
Private rented 11.2% 508/650
Social rented 11.5% 520/650
White 97.6% 166 /650
Black 0.3% 460/650
Asian 1.0% 518 /650
Managerial & professional 34.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 24.3%
Degree level 27.5% 260/650
No qualifications 22.2% 359 /650
Students 5.3% 606/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 74.0% 72/573
Private rented 14.1% 476/573
Social rented 11.9% 428/573
White 95.4 %
Black 0.8%
Asian 1.9%
Managerial & professional 36.9% 173/573
Routine & Semi-routine 22.1% 348/573
Degree level 32.3% 276/573
No qualifications 16.9% 337/573
General Election 2019: South Norfolk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Richard Bacon 36,258 58.0 -0.2
Labour Beth Jones 14,983 24.0 -6.9
Liberal Democrats Christopher Brown 8,744 14.0 +5.7
Green Ben Price 2,499 4.0 +1.5
C Majority 21,275 34.0 +6.7
2019 electorate 86,214
Turnout 62,484 72.5 -1.1
Conservative hold
Swing 3.4 Lab to C
Like its neighbour, the SW Norfolk constituency where the MP is Liz Truss, South Norfolk has a history of marginality but has now become very safe for the Conservative party. Unlike South West, this seat was not won by Labour in the 1950s (though Christopher Mayhew did hold it between 1945 and 1950 and agricultural trade unionist George Edwards twice won as far back as the early 1920s). However the margins of the Conservative victories in the ‘50s were consistently slender: somewhat over 2,000 and 3,000 in 1950 and 1951, then a mere 865 in the January 1955 byelection caused by the expulsion of Peter Baker and his seven year jail sentence for forgery. The new MP John Hill then only won by 1,475 in the general election later in 1955 and by 2,733 in 1959. Although it did not fall to Labour as they formed a government in the 1960s, the majorities remained thin; Hill held on by only 119 votes in 1966. From that point on, however, the Tory lead ballooned, surpassing 19,000 in 1979 and 17,000 in 1992. By the time of the first Blair landslide, the former holder of three Cabinet posts John Macgregor still won by well over 7,000 - the second highest majority in 1997 was Gillian Shepherd’s 2,464 next door in South West. In December 2019, Richard Bacon’s majority for the Tories was over 21,000, the highest ever figure in a South Norfolk contest.
Of course there have been boundary changes through the history of the seat, for example the town of Thetford was included between 1950 and 1983, but these have not been very important in explaining South Norfolk’s transition away from marginality. More significant has been the decline of agricultural trade unionism, which was unusually strong in the county of Norfolk, as indeed agriculture itself has become both less labour-intensive and less dominant in the economy. By the time of the 2011 census only 3.1% of all workers in South Norfolk were employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing – though that was still in the top decile of constituencies at 61st place in the rankings. Over four times as many were working in human health and social care activities, for example. Norfolk has also swung towards the Conservatives not only as the political cleavages here have become more aligned with those nationally, but also with that large number of incoming residents which has stimulated the increasing number of constituencies.
South Norfolk on its present boundaries is situated entirely inland form the coast, west and south of Norwich and with a long border with Suffolk. It is based on the small towns of Diss, Harleston and Loddon, and numerous villages. Another centre of population lies in the Norwich suburbs, such as Old Costessey and Cringleford, where the growth of the city has in some places effectively burst its borders into South Norfolk District. Indeed some of these enlarged villages are as populous as the towns in the more rural part of the seat: both Diss and Old Costessey have over 7,000 residents, and Cringleford with 3,000 is a little larger than Loddon.
In local council elections, the main battle in South Norfolk is between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. In the most recent, all out, elections for the South Norfolk authority in May 2019, the overall number of councillors returned was 35 Conservatives, 10 Liberal Democrats and one Labour. Some wards are not currently in the constituency of the same name, but of those which are, the LDs won Ditchingham (two councillors), Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross (one) and Old Costessey (three). Labour’s sole success was in Loddon & Chedgrave ward, split with the Tories. These results are probably largely due to local and personal factors, as there are no discernible correlations with demographic variables: Old Costessey does not have higher educational qualifications than average, for example despite not being far from East Anglia University. Loddon is only a little more working class than the norm for the constituency, and indeed distinctly less so than Harleston (35% routine and semi-routine workers), where the Tories won and Labour finished bottom of the poll in 2019, so behind a Liberal Democrat and an Independent. In the more recent May 2021 Norfolk county council elections, the Conservatives won easily everywhere except Costessey, which was narrowly taken by the Liberal Democrats – but that county electoral division is split between constituencies because New Costessey has been included in the Norwich South seat since 1997. Labour again did reasonably well only in Loddon.
Despite this local election pattern, the Liberal Democrats have finished third in the South Norfolk constituency in the last three general elections – in 2019 they only managed 14% to Labour’s 24%. They and their predecessors, the Liberals, had been runners up in seven successive contests between 1983 and 2010 inclusive; indeed that was probably why South Norfolk was able so effectively to resist the New Labour onslaught in 1997 and 2001, when the opposition was fairly evenly divided with the LDs. South Norfolk was also rather evenly divided between Remain and Leave in the 2016 referendum (the whole council reported around 51% for Leave), which was a strong factor in a rather static December 2019 result, with the Tory share remaining almost unaltered and a six percent swing from Labour to the LDs, which greater enthusiasm for ‘remaining’ will have appealed more to some than Labour’s equivocation.
There will be major boundary changes before the next election, if the Commission’s revised report is enacted. Six wards are transferred out of South Norfolk and into a new and extra constituency that crosses the border with Suffolk, to be called Waveney Valley. The total electorate involved is around 28,500. These are the wards of Beck Vale, Dickleburgh & Scole, Bressingham & Burston, Bunwell, Diss & Roydon, Ditchingham & Earsham and Harleston. Thus two of the small towns in the seat (Diss and Harleston) would be removed. However, as South Norfolk’s electorate needs to be partially topped up in compensation, some territory is added in exchange, from the Mid Norfolk seat. This is essentially the town of Wymondham, which is already in the South Norfolk district, and was in the South Norfolk constituency until 1983. Wymondham (pronounced Windham), with its population of around 14,000 (and growing) will now clearly be the largest in the seat. By the time of the May 2019 local elections redrawn wards were already in use, and Wymondham now covers two wards. The Conservatives won North and the Liberal Democrats South.
Overall, though, both the redrawn South Norfolk and the new Waveney Valley will be safely Tory in parliamentary terms. In South Norfolk the numerical majority will be slightly reduced to notionally less than 20,000. The Suffolk section of Waveney Valley actually includes parts of four Conservative seats: Central Suffolk & Ipswich North (including Eye and Fressingfield), Bury St Edmunds (villages like Ricklingham and Gislington), Waveney (including Bungay) and Suffolk Coastal (such as Halesworth), so the ex-South Norfolk section is actually the largest single ingredient in the pot-pourri, although it only comprises well under half of the whole. As with the extra seats in Cambridgeshire and Hertfordshire, there will be a net gain for the Conservatives at Westminster in the form of the new Suffolk/Norfolk constituency.
One perhaps unlikely concern to be found within South Norfolk (old and new boundaries) is the Lotus car complex at the hamlet of Hethel in Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross ward; set on a former airfield there is as well as the factory also a test track, a driving school and even a visitor facility.
www.lotuscars.com/en-GB/factory-tours
Lotus may no longer be involved in the astronomically expensive international big business that is Formula One racing, but they will forever be known for their six drivers’ championships and an extra constructors’ crown. In South Norfolk, having seen so many chequered flags in the past, the Conservatives will still be in pole position as the red lights go off for the start of future general elections, while other parties risk remaining stuck on the starting grid.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 21.4% 75/650
Owner-occupied 74.7% 78/650
Private rented 11.2% 508/650
Social rented 11.5% 520/650
White 97.6% 166 /650
Black 0.3% 460/650
Asian 1.0% 518 /650
Managerial & professional 34.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 24.3%
Degree level 27.5% 260/650
No qualifications 22.2% 359 /650
Students 5.3% 606/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 74.0% 72/573
Private rented 14.1% 476/573
Social rented 11.9% 428/573
White 95.4 %
Black 0.8%
Asian 1.9%
Managerial & professional 36.9% 173/573
Routine & Semi-routine 22.1% 348/573
Degree level 32.3% 276/573
No qualifications 16.9% 337/573
General Election 2019: South Norfolk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Richard Bacon 36,258 58.0 -0.2
Labour Beth Jones 14,983 24.0 -6.9
Liberal Democrats Christopher Brown 8,744 14.0 +5.7
Green Ben Price 2,499 4.0 +1.5
C Majority 21,275 34.0 +6.7
2019 electorate 86,214
Turnout 62,484 72.5 -1.1
Conservative hold
Swing 3.4 Lab to C
