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Post by Penddu on Jan 7, 2023 15:18:02 GMT
There should be at least one and possibly two or more changes at the top of Welsh politics this year, in readiness for next Senedd elections in 2026. This will also have a significant impact on UK general election vote in Wales.
Welsh Labour - Mark Drakeford said he will step down this year, with three possible successors but no obvious favourite:
Vaughan Gething (Minister for Economy) is apparently the Union's favourite but not popular with the public or local parties where he is seen as bad-tempered and bullying.
Eluned Morgan (Minister for Health) is arguably the most experienced candidate being a former MEP and is also a Baroness - a title that she tries to hide as it does not resonate with the voters or the party activists.
Jeremy Miles (Minister for Education) is the least well known but seems to be well liked among the party. My tip for the top.
Plaid Cymru - Adam Price has not lived up to his billing as Plaid's lost son, with very little if any electoral success. There is now strong pressure to replace him, but without an obvious succesor:
Rhun ap Iorwerth is arguably the favourite except that he has said that he wants to stand as MP (for Ynys Môn) instead which would rule himself out as leader. He is undoubtedly popular in Plaid's heartlands and is very media savvy (ex BBC presenter) but less popular in the English speaking Valleys.
Mabon ap Gwynfor is again popular in the heartlands but less so elsewhere and cant see him as a viable leader.
Delyth Jewell is a rising star in Plaid - Welsh speaking but from the Rhymey Valley and should apoeal across Wales - despite being the ap-less candidate.
Welsh Conservatives - Andrew RT Davies has become a figure of derision but I think he will cling on to next election simply because the alternatives are even worse. If he does move on, expect to be replaced by another Davies - maybe an MP.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 7, 2023 15:50:17 GMT
There's an interesting (all be it brief) editorial here on two of these:
I think all three will go by the end of 2024 with a minimum of one this year. Andrew RT might be the most likly (he was also the first to go in 2018 when these three parties all changed their leaders). He's just coming up to two years on his second stint as leader.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 7, 2023 15:52:00 GMT
Welsh Labour have BTW recently and quietly updated their leadership rules. Previously candidates needed the support of 20% of AMs (as was) which was five plus themselves, now it's just 10% so 2 plus themselves.
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Post by Penddu on Jan 7, 2023 16:09:06 GMT
Welsh Labour have BTW recently and quietly updated their leadership rules. Previously candidates needed the support of 20% of AMs (as was) which was five plus themselves, now it's just 10% so 2 plus themselves. I had not noticed that - time to read up on the voting process...ps they are now called MSs not AMs. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 7, 2023 16:40:05 GMT
Welsh Labour have BTW recently and quietly updated their leadership rules. Previously candidates needed the support of 20% of AMs (as was) which was five plus themselves, now it's just 10% so 2 plus themselves. I had not noticed that - time to read up on the voting process...ps they are now called MSs not AMs. I know thats why I said "AMs (as was)", as the last time there was a contest they were AMs :-) |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 7, 2023 18:33:33 GMT
Sounds like Morgan should get along well with the Labour leader next door in England.  |
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Post by Penddu on Jan 9, 2023 5:48:13 GMT
Thinking about the Conservatives, seeing as how they are heading for a near wipe-out in Wales - could we see one of their Westminster MPs do a rat run and switch to the Senedd ? I could see David TC Davies jumping over - becoming Leader and guaranteeing himself a List seat???
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jan 11, 2023 9:03:55 GMT
Thinking about the Conservatives, seeing as how they are heading for a near wipe-out in Wales - could we see one of their Westminster MPs do a rat run and switch to the Senedd ? I could see David TC Davies jumping over - becoming Leader and guaranteeing himself a List seat??? Monmouth must be one Welsh seat they have at least a good chance of holding onto? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 11, 2023 9:32:58 GMT
Thinking about the Conservatives, seeing as how they are heading for a near wipe-out in Wales - could we see one of their Westminster MPs do a rat run and switch to the Senedd ? I could see David TC Davies jumping over - becoming Leader and guaranteeing himself a List seat??? Monmouth must be one Welsh seat they have at least a good chance of holding onto? Montgomeryshire is safer on current boundaries, Labour smell blood in Monmouthshire following last years council elections and Labour have held it in the recent past at a Westminster level (1990-92 & 1997-2005). As for David TC Davies doing a chicken run to the Senedd I think that's unlikely given he was so keen to leave the place to start with. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jan 11, 2023 9:40:19 GMT
Monmouth must be one Welsh seat they have at least a good chance of holding onto? Montgomeryshire is safer on current boundaries, Labour smell blood in Monmouthshire following last years council elections and Labour have held it in the recent past at a Westminster level (1990-92 & 1997-2005). As for David TC Davies doing a chicken run to the Senedd I think that's unlikely given he was so keen to leave the place to start with. Douglas Ross went back to the Scottish Parliament after leaving for Westminster before for the purpose of becoming leader, although the Welsh Conservatives don’t seem to have as autonomous a set up so leading their Welsh Parliament group may not be that appealing |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 11, 2023 10:53:16 GMT
Douglas Ross never had the same contempt for the Scottish Parliament as TC Davies did for the then Assembly though.
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Jan 11, 2023 11:02:35 GMT
Douglas Ross never had the same contempt for the Scottish Parliament as TC Davies did for the then Assembly though. It’s a bit before my time being politically aware when he was in the assembly, the Conservatives were against devolution altogether at first but was there something in particular about Davies? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 11, 2023 11:53:29 GMT
Douglas Ross never had the same contempt for the Scottish Parliament as TC Davies did for the then Assembly though. It’s a bit before my time being politically aware when he was in the assembly, the Conservatives were against devolution altogether at first but was there something in particular about Davies? Yes. The Conservatives were against it, but came around with the leadership in Wales accepting the result and even campaigning for more powers in the referendum they called in 2011, yet he remained largely against including campaigning for and voting no in 2011. He’s mellowed somewhat and was a good Welsh Affairs Chair but he’s by no means an enthusiast of the institution. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jan 11, 2023 12:05:10 GMT
It’s a bit before my time being politically aware when he was in the assembly, the Conservatives were against devolution altogether at first but was there something in particular about Davies? Yes. The Conservatives were against it, but came around with the leadership in Wales accepting the result and even campaigning for more powers in the referendum they called in 2011, yet he remained largely against including campaigning for and voting no in 2011. He’s mellowed somewhat and was a good Welsh Affairs Chair but he’s by no means an enthusiast of the institution. Interesting, far as I can tell the Scottish Conservatives all generally fell in line right after devolution was voted for, although the vote in the 97 referendums was of course far more overwhelming in Scotland than it was in Wales |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Jan 11, 2023 12:25:40 GMT
It’s a bit before my time being politically aware when he was in the assembly, the Conservatives were against devolution altogether at first but was there something in particular about Davies? Yes. The Conservatives were against it, but came around with the leadership in Wales accepting the result and even campaigning for more powers in the referendum they called in 2011, yet he remained largely against including campaigning for and voting no in 2011. He’s mellowed somewhat and was a good Welsh Affairs Chair but he’s by no means an enthusiast of the institution. And of course he was appointed leader of the Welsh Conservatives in the then Assembly by the outgoing leader Rod Richards, who described the rest of the party as poisoned dwarfs.... he lasted 30 minutes until ousted by the collective assembly membership. |
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Post by Penddu on May 10, 2023 3:37:06 GMT
And so it happens. Adam Price to stand down asap - looks like a two-horse race to replace him
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Post by Penddu on May 10, 2023 6:19:12 GMT
My prediction for the Plaid leadership is that a deal will be agreed behind closed doors:
Rhun ap Iorweth to be appointed 'interim' Leader with Delyth Jewell as deputy. Rhun should shore up the traditional voters in the heartlands which should deliver the maximum number of MPs in the UK General Election in 2024(?). Assuming Rhun stands as an MP, then Delyth would then take over as Leader which should increase Plaid's votes in the south for the next Senedd election (in 2026?). Rhun would retain a major leadership role becoming UK spokesman and becoming the Plaid face in the UK media (Question Time etc) with Delyth taking the lead in the Welsh media (FWIW).
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Harry Hayfield
Green
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 10, 2023 19:08:21 GMT
And so it happens. Adam Price to stand down asap - looks like a two-horse race to replace him The BBC is reporting this (as of 1907 BST on May 10th) "The future of Adam Price's leadership of Plaid Cymru is in doubt ahead of crunch talks of the party's ruling body on Wednesday night. The meeting of the National Executive Committee (NEC) comes after news website Nation.Cymru reported Mr Price has agreed to quit as party leader. It follows a damning review which alleged misogyny, harassment and bullying in the party. The party said the meeting will consider "the next steps". On Tuesday a Plaid politician could not say if Adam Price would be in charge next week. Sources speaking to BBC Wales said a statement could come from the leader after the NEC meeting" |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 10, 2023 21:41:31 GMT
My prediction for the Plaid leadership is that a deal will be agreed behind closed doors: Rhun ap Iorweth to be appointed 'interim' Leader with Delyth Jewell as deputy. Rhun should shore up the traditional voters in the heartlands which should deliver the maximum number of MPs in the UK General Election in 2024(?). Assuming Rhun stands as an MP, then Delyth would then take over as Leader which should increase Plaid's votes in the south for the next Senedd election (in 2026?). Rhun would retain a major leadership role becoming UK spokesman and becoming the Plaid face in the UK media (Question Time etc) with Delyth taking the lead in the Welsh media (FWIW). Sounds like you’re not alone in thinking an interim leader. It probably wouldn’t be the worst thing for Plaid to get back to ‘normality’ and to try and get their house in order tbf. I did, possibly prematurely, yesterday create a thread, not realising the resignation process would drag out: vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/16960/plaid-cymru-leadership-2023?page=1 |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on May 10, 2023 22:34:31 GMT
It probably wouldn’t be the worst thing for Plaid to get back to ‘normality’ and to try and get their house in order tbf. On the other hand, if the fundamental problem is that the party is dominated by a series of overlapping cliques with rather toxic attitudes towards certain things... |
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