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Post by jamesdoyle on Jan 27, 2023 7:36:35 GMT
GWBWI
Lab +55
LDm +14
Con -21
ASV
Lab +0.9
LDm +0.2
Con -0.3
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 27, 2023 7:54:49 GMT
Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the Labour Party. Although their vote was up, it was little more than a third, while 3 effective opposition candidates got 50% more votes combined. Yes the Conservative vote was derisory, but people in this part of Rotherham are still looking to alternatives, rather than turning to Labour.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jan 27, 2023 8:12:30 GMT
As I hinted in my profile, it's a rather disparate ward: Thorpe Hesley and Kimberworth Park don't have that much in common and aren't even that close together. I wonder whether different non-Labour candidates got traction in different parts of the ward.
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 27, 2023 8:25:06 GMT
As I hinted in my profile, it's a rather disparate ward: Thorpe Hesley and Kimberworth Park don't have that much in common and aren't even that close together. I wonder whether different non-Labour candidates got traction in different parts of the ward. There's a fairly similar ward in Gateshead - a disparate mix of the commuter side of a small town, a fairly deprived coal mining village, a very deprived section of Gateshead itself, and an affluent (though sparsely populated) rural section. It often gets these sorts of results - a Labour victory but with rather split opposition. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 27, 2023 8:46:46 GMT
As I hinted in my profile, it's a rather disparate ward: Thorpe Hesley and Kimberworth Park don't have that much in common and aren't even that close together. I wonder whether different non-Labour candidates got traction in different parts of the ward. what share of the population are the two sections respectively? |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jan 27, 2023 9:04:04 GMT
As I hinted in my profile, it's a rather disparate ward: Thorpe Hesley and Kimberworth Park don't have that much in common and aren't even that close together. I wonder whether different non-Labour candidates got traction in different parts of the ward. what share of the population are the two sections respectively? Using the custom area profile for the census (hence using approximations by whole Output Areas): Kimberworth Park 8,400 Thorpe Hesley 4,200 Scholes/Keppel's Column 1,100 I suspect that the latter two areas have better turnout. |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 27, 2023 9:34:57 GMT
Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the Labour Party. Although their vote was up, it was little more than a third, while 3 effective opposition candidates got 50% more votes combined. Yes the Conservative vote was derisory, but people in this part of Rotherham are still looking to alternatives, rather than turning to Labour. I guess the ethnicity of the Conservative candidate might well have caused some of the drop in the Conservative share, and I suspect that people who might have chosen not to vote Conservative for that reason would have voted Independent or Yorkshire party rather than Labour. I suspect UKIP or Reform could have got 10% for that reason if either have stood. But not quite as good a Labour result as some in recent weeks IMO. |
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Post by grahammurray on Jan 27, 2023 10:37:48 GMT
Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the Labour Party. Although their vote was up, it was little more than a third, while 3 effective opposition candidates got 50% more votes combined. Yes the Conservative vote was derisory, but people in this part of Rotherham are still looking to alternatives, rather than turning to Labour. I guess the ethnicity of the Conservative candidate might well have caused some of the drop in the Conservative share, and I suspect that people who might have chosen not to vote Conservative for that reason would have voted Independent or Yorkshire party rather than Labour. I suspect UKIP or Reform could have got 10% for that reason if either have stood. But not quite as good a Labour result as some in recent weeks IMO. So what would explain the Lib Dem vote? |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 27, 2023 11:01:08 GMT
I guess the ethnicity of the Conservative candidate might well have caused some of the drop in the Conservative share, and I suspect that people who might have chosen not to vote Conservative for that reason would have voted Independent or Yorkshire party rather than Labour. I suspect UKIP or Reform could have got 10% for that reason if either have stood. But not quite as good a Labour result as some in recent weeks IMO. So what would explain the Lib Dem vote? That It’s not so much of an issue for Lib Dem voters. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 27, 2023 11:36:04 GMT
Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the Labour Party. Although their vote was up, it was little more than a third, while 3 effective opposition candidates got 50% more votes combined. Yes the Conservative vote was derisory, but people in this part of Rotherham are still looking to alternatives, rather than turning to Labour. Its traditionally one of the strongest Tory/anti-Labour areas in the borough. EDIT: Pete's subsequent post seems fair and I was maybe slightly misremembering. But the above comment still rather overstates how poor a Labour result it was, I feel. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 27, 2023 12:20:47 GMT
Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the Labour Party. Although their vote was up, it was little more than a third, while 3 effective opposition candidates got 50% more votes combined. Yes the Conservative vote was derisory, but people in this part of Rotherham are still looking to alternatives, rather than turning to Labour. Its traditionally one of the strongest Tory/anti-Labour areas in the borough. 'Traditionally' is pushing it somewhat. It's a ward Labour have struggled a bit in some recent years against the populist right but has always been a weak area for the Conservatives as you would expect given the demographics. The old Thorpe Hesley ward (which had not very different boundaries) was always safely Labour. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 27, 2023 12:41:30 GMT
So what would explain the Lib Dem vote? That It’s not so much of an issue for Lib Dem voters. A convenient explanation, but maybe not the whole truth? To a significant degree, the Tory candidate did badly because they were the *Tory* candidate. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 27, 2023 20:38:52 GMT
Well that was a stunning result for the Lib Dems!
Just checking the prediction thread, one person gave them 12%, everyone else 7% or less! No one saw that result coming.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jan 27, 2023 21:51:27 GMT
Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the Labour Party. Although their vote was up, it was little more than a third, while 3 effective opposition candidates got 50% more votes combined. Yes the Conservative vote was derisory, but people in this part of Rotherham are still looking to alternatives, rather than turning to Labour. Its traditionally one of the strongest Tory/anti-Labour areas in the borough. EDIT: Pete's subsequent post seems fair and I was maybe slightly misremembering. But the above comment still rather overstates how poor a Labour result it was, I feel. As you say it's not a ward where they've been winning comfortably for quite a long time (though indeed their troubles have been caused by the populist right, not by the Tories) and it was after all a gain. However I do think a win on 36% is a bit underwhelming and I suspect that partly reflects some continuing concerns about Rotherham council. If you look at the demographics of the Thorpe Hesley and Scholes parts of the ward they do actually look like areas where the Tories would have been winning in recent years: for example they have an older than average population, high owner occupation and lowish deprivation combined with below average levels of higher education. Kimberworth Park is a different matter, though I do wonder who carried the ward in the 2019 General Election where the Tories were only just over 3000 votes behind in Rotherham constituency. bjornhattan, what does your model say? |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 27, 2023 22:21:07 GMT
Its traditionally one of the strongest Tory/anti-Labour areas in the borough. EDIT: Pete's subsequent post seems fair and I was maybe slightly misremembering. But the above comment still rather overstates how poor a Labour result it was, I feel. As you say it's not a ward where they've been winning comfortably for quite a long time (though indeed their troubles have been caused by the populist right, not by the Tories) and it was after all a gain. However I do think a win on 36% is a bit underwhelming and I suspect that partly reflects some continuing concerns about Rotherham council. If you look at the demographics of the Thorpe Hesley and Scholes parts of the ward they do actually look like areas where the Tories would have been winning in recent years: for example they have an older than average population, high owner occupation and lowish deprivation combined with below average levels of higher education. Kimberworth Park is a different matter, though I do wonder who carried the ward in the 2019 General Election where the Tories were only just over 3000 votes behind in Rotherham constituency. bjornhattan, what does your model say? My model has it as CON 36.9% LAB 35.1% BXP 18.0% LD 7.0% OTH 3.0% Very much a ward of two halves - Kimberworth Park is reasonably comfortably Labour in my model, though to a lesser extent than most of the urban core of Rotherham. Thorpe Hesley is a different matter with a Conservative vote approaching 50% (and Labour taking not much more than a quarter of the vote). |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 27, 2023 22:33:00 GMT
Well that was a stunning result for the Lib Dems! Just checking the prediction thread, one person gave them 12%, everyone else 7% or less! No one saw that result coming. It's not a stunning result unless we win the bugger. Still, a good effort. |
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Post by batman on Jan 27, 2023 23:22:07 GMT
It's reasonable enough to say that the result was not a huge endorsement of Labour. But, all the same, their percentage majority was higher than the great majority of us predicted, and the collapse in the Tory vote was pretty spectacular - they were not far off winning a seat in the ward in the previous contest. I think Labour will be broadly satisfied with a majority of exactly 300, although it isn't as great as some other recent results. Perhaps we all believed the hype from Sid Currie a little too readily.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 27, 2023 23:33:18 GMT
Would agree with that. Contrary to some recent contests, this isn't a great Labour result in its own terms, but it's good enough, especially in a contest where multiple parties ran active campaigns. On the other side of the equation, the Tory result is as bad as you'd expect if not worse.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 28, 2023 6:27:28 GMT
As you say it's not a ward where they've been winning comfortably for quite a long time (though indeed their troubles have been caused by the populist right, not by the Tories) and it was after all a gain. However I do think a win on 36% is a bit underwhelming and I suspect that partly reflects some continuing concerns about Rotherham council. If you look at the demographics of the Thorpe Hesley and Scholes parts of the ward they do actually look like areas where the Tories would have been winning in recent years: for example they have an older than average population, high owner occupation and lowish deprivation combined with below average levels of higher education. Kimberworth Park is a different matter, though I do wonder who carried the ward in the 2019 General Election where the Tories were only just over 3000 votes behind in Rotherham constituency. bjornhattan, what does your model say? My model has it as CON 36.9% LAB 35.1% BXP 18.0% LD 7.0% OTH 3.0% Very much a ward of two halves - Kimberworth Park is reasonably comfortably Labour in my model, though to a lesser extent than most of the urban core of Rotherham. Thorpe Hesley is a different matter with a Conservative vote approaching 50% (and Labour taking not much more than a quarter of the vote). My own notional results (fwiw) based on local election voting patterns is very similar Con 36.4% Lab 34.3% BxP 19.3% LD 6.6% |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 28, 2023 10:49:45 GMT
It's reasonable enough to say that the result was not a huge endorsement of Labour. But, all the same, their percentage majority was higher than the great majority of us predicted, and the collapse in the Tory vote was pretty spectacular - they were not far off winning a seat in the ward in the previous contest. I think Labour will be broadly satisfied with a majority of exactly 300, although it isn't as great as some other recent results. Perhaps we all believed the hype from Sid Currie a little too readily. And it was the sort of opportunist effort the LibDems managed in a few contests last year (that's not really a criticism, its what you would expect a party in their position to attempt if they can) As with some of those showings, whether they can repeat it in an all-out election is maybe another matter. |
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