Post by Robert Waller on Dec 29, 2022 17:19:44 GMT
Unlike its classy little near-namesake on the western Isle of Wight, there is nothing up-market about Great Yarmouth. In fact this constituency is one of the top ten per cent as far as working class occupational indicators are concerned, with over a third employed in routine and semi-routine jobs. According to the recently released figures from the 2021 census, it ranks 12th out of the current 573 seats in England in the latter category. However the correlation between class and voting as been declining since around 1960 ( see for example the analysis in Mark Franklin, The Decline in Class Voting in Britain) and reached a new low in 2019; the Conservatives held Great Yarmouth with a majority of 17,663, their highest ever, following a swing of over 11% against Labour - and that on a turnout of scarcely above 60%
Clearly the outcome in 2019 was largely the product of issues relating to the EU to be discussed below, but the (Great) Yarmouth seat has only on rare occasions proved fruitful ground for Labour. Peter Pulzer’s famous 1967 dictum that “Class is the basis of British party politics; all else is embellishment and detail” has in fact never been entirely true. The parliamentary seat’s boundaries have been fairly consistent for many decades due to its geographical position at the eastern coastal extremity of Norfolk. Labour have only prevailed in (Great) Yarmouth in very good years for them nationally: 1997-2005, 1966 and 1945-50. However there have been a remarkable number of close contests. Labour had a majority of less than 3,000 three times (1945, 1950 and 1966), and the Conservatives and allies in 1918, 1924, 1951, 1955, 1964 and October 1974 – that is six times in all. The Liberals won in 1922, 1923 and 1929, but never by more than 2,924. Therefore in all there have been 12 general elections in which the leading two parties were separated by less than 3,000. The Liberal Democrats, by the way, in December 2019 the Liberal Democrats polled just 3.8% in Great Yarmouth, one of their worst performances in England.
This emphatic rejection is closely connected to the Lib Dem campaign led by Jo Swinson in which prominence was given to their dislike of the result of the 2016 European referendum. This would not have gone down well here. As Great Yarmouth as a Westminster constituency is identical to the borough council of the same name, we have no need of estimates to establish how it had voted: 71.5% Leave, 28.5% Remain. In addition to its working class credentials, Great Yarmouth is on the east coast of England, which has a number of favourable credits as far as Europhobia is concerned. These include a 75.6% anti vote in the Boston authority and the UKIP victories in parliamentary byelections in Clacton and Rochester & Strood. The fallout from the referendum and the delay in enacting its decision clearly plays a large role in the record breaking size of the Tory majority in Yarmouth in December 2019.
Great Yarmouth is the largest holiday resort and the largest working port in Norfolk. It used to have a herring fishing fleet and be a ferry centre for travel to northern Europe, especially Holland, and more recently a base for North Sea oil and gas exploitation. None of this, however, has been particularly prosperous in the 21st century. The town of Yarmouth itself (population around 40,000) has also been known for a solid Labour vote. In the most recent borough council elections in May 2019 Labour returned 15 councillors in six wards. These were Claydon, Magdalen, Nelson south of the town centre on the coast), Southtown & Cobholme, St Andrews and Central & Northgate, where representation was shared with a latter-day UKIP councillor, which says something in itself. St Andrew and Magdalen are both in Gorleston-on-Sea, which is really Yarmouth on the other side of the mouth of the River Yare: St Andrews is the northern central section of Gorleston, and Magdalen is in effect the Gorleston council estate ward in its south-western quadrant – it still had 40% housing in the social rented sector in 2011. Claydon in south west Yarmouth also had 35% social rented, and other wards such as Nelson and Southtown/Cobholme have a minority of owner occupiers because of high private rented numbers as well. This central block of wards is clearly overall working class with elements of deprivation. Note too some of the educational statistics: 36% with no qualifications in Claydon, 40% in Nelson, 38% in Magdalen, 36% in Central & Northgate. Overall, in 2021 Great Yarmouth was the seat with the 3rd lowest percentage of those with degrees, out of the 573 in England and Wales.The demographics suggest that although this zone may provide reliable Labour support in council elections, it would not have done so in recent general elections, particularly the most recent, because they also correlation with a very strong Brexit preference.
The Conservatives did manage to win in 2019 in Yarmouth North and Gorleston ward itself. It is also the case that slightly more than half the electorate is not in the Yarmouth and Gorleston ‘conurbation’, The seat, and the borough, also includes Bradwell just inland (with over 10,000 residents), effectively a more middle class and owner occupied suburb. Inland from Gorleston is Lothingland, a large low lying area that, like Bradwell, was in Suffolk before 1974. Further north up the cast is Caister-on-Sea (not to be confused with Caistor in the Lincolnshire Wolds), which, like Bradwell, has two wards and around 10,000 population. Still further north and west, and more rural, are Ormesby, East Flegg and West Flegg, and Fleggburgh.
These are all in effect part of rural Norfolk, which has become very Conservative in recent decades. Not only do they between them elected 16 Tories and three Independents in May 2019, but in the Norfolk county council contests of 2021 the Conservatives could be said to have given Labour a good ‘flegging’: by 72% to 14% in East Flegg, 68% to 14% in West Flegg. At county level Labour only triumphed in Magdalen and Yarmouth Nelson & Southtown, even though 2021 was not one of their worse years. The hinterland is characterised by an older age structure: over 30% in Caister South (for example), which also tends to EU ‘leave’ type opinions.
Therefore on top of a history of Labour only winning in their best general election years, the Great Yarmouth seat has a combination of characteristics that suggest it has become an even less likely target. Relative to the national averages it is aged, less educationally qualified, more working class, more white and more (literally) insular: it had the 7th highest proportion of residents without a passport of the 659 seats in the 2011 census. Because of its rather isolated location and stable population it is again suggested that there should be no boundary changes in the 2023 review – its lines have already remained unaltered since 1983. That is another difference from the Yarmouth on the Isle of Wight, which has by contrast seen one of the most radical changes in the present review, as it has been split for the first time into two whole seats. There is a far chance that the Conservative hold on either of these will be less secure in the foreseeable future than that in Great Yarmouth.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 20.9% 97/650
Owner-occupied 64.3% 402/650
Private rented 16.5% 212/650
Social rented 17.2% 287/650
White 96.9% 236/650
Black 0.5% 385/650
Asian 1.2% 460/650
No passport 28.9% 7/650
Managerial & professional 21.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 36.0%
Semi-Routine 19.9% 12/650
Professional occupations 10.1% 636/650
Degree level 14.2% 639 /650
No qualifications 32.8% 42/650
Students 5.9% 507/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 62.1% 370/573
Private rented 21.7% 167/573
Social rented 16.2% 248/573
White 94.6%
Black 1.1%
Asian 2.0%
Managerial & professional 22.2% 526/573
Routine & Semi-routine 33.8% 23/573
Degree level 18.3% 571/573
No qualifications 26.5% 31/573
General Election 2019: Great Yarmouth
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Brandon Lewis 28,593 65.8 +11.7
Labour Co-op Mike Smith-Clare 10,930 25.1 −11.0
Liberal Democrats James Joyce 1,661 3.8 +1.6
Green Anne Killett 1,064 2.4 +1.1
Veterans and People's Dave Harding 631 1.5 New
Independent Adrian Myers 429 1.0 New
Independent Margaret McMahon-Morris 154 0.4 New
C Majority 17,663 40.7 +22.7
2019 electorate 71,957
Turnout 43,462 60.4 −1.4
Conservative hold
Swing 11.3 Lab to C
Clearly the outcome in 2019 was largely the product of issues relating to the EU to be discussed below, but the (Great) Yarmouth seat has only on rare occasions proved fruitful ground for Labour. Peter Pulzer’s famous 1967 dictum that “Class is the basis of British party politics; all else is embellishment and detail” has in fact never been entirely true. The parliamentary seat’s boundaries have been fairly consistent for many decades due to its geographical position at the eastern coastal extremity of Norfolk. Labour have only prevailed in (Great) Yarmouth in very good years for them nationally: 1997-2005, 1966 and 1945-50. However there have been a remarkable number of close contests. Labour had a majority of less than 3,000 three times (1945, 1950 and 1966), and the Conservatives and allies in 1918, 1924, 1951, 1955, 1964 and October 1974 – that is six times in all. The Liberals won in 1922, 1923 and 1929, but never by more than 2,924. Therefore in all there have been 12 general elections in which the leading two parties were separated by less than 3,000. The Liberal Democrats, by the way, in December 2019 the Liberal Democrats polled just 3.8% in Great Yarmouth, one of their worst performances in England.
This emphatic rejection is closely connected to the Lib Dem campaign led by Jo Swinson in which prominence was given to their dislike of the result of the 2016 European referendum. This would not have gone down well here. As Great Yarmouth as a Westminster constituency is identical to the borough council of the same name, we have no need of estimates to establish how it had voted: 71.5% Leave, 28.5% Remain. In addition to its working class credentials, Great Yarmouth is on the east coast of England, which has a number of favourable credits as far as Europhobia is concerned. These include a 75.6% anti vote in the Boston authority and the UKIP victories in parliamentary byelections in Clacton and Rochester & Strood. The fallout from the referendum and the delay in enacting its decision clearly plays a large role in the record breaking size of the Tory majority in Yarmouth in December 2019.
Great Yarmouth is the largest holiday resort and the largest working port in Norfolk. It used to have a herring fishing fleet and be a ferry centre for travel to northern Europe, especially Holland, and more recently a base for North Sea oil and gas exploitation. None of this, however, has been particularly prosperous in the 21st century. The town of Yarmouth itself (population around 40,000) has also been known for a solid Labour vote. In the most recent borough council elections in May 2019 Labour returned 15 councillors in six wards. These were Claydon, Magdalen, Nelson south of the town centre on the coast), Southtown & Cobholme, St Andrews and Central & Northgate, where representation was shared with a latter-day UKIP councillor, which says something in itself. St Andrew and Magdalen are both in Gorleston-on-Sea, which is really Yarmouth on the other side of the mouth of the River Yare: St Andrews is the northern central section of Gorleston, and Magdalen is in effect the Gorleston council estate ward in its south-western quadrant – it still had 40% housing in the social rented sector in 2011. Claydon in south west Yarmouth also had 35% social rented, and other wards such as Nelson and Southtown/Cobholme have a minority of owner occupiers because of high private rented numbers as well. This central block of wards is clearly overall working class with elements of deprivation. Note too some of the educational statistics: 36% with no qualifications in Claydon, 40% in Nelson, 38% in Magdalen, 36% in Central & Northgate. Overall, in 2021 Great Yarmouth was the seat with the 3rd lowest percentage of those with degrees, out of the 573 in England and Wales.The demographics suggest that although this zone may provide reliable Labour support in council elections, it would not have done so in recent general elections, particularly the most recent, because they also correlation with a very strong Brexit preference.
The Conservatives did manage to win in 2019 in Yarmouth North and Gorleston ward itself. It is also the case that slightly more than half the electorate is not in the Yarmouth and Gorleston ‘conurbation’, The seat, and the borough, also includes Bradwell just inland (with over 10,000 residents), effectively a more middle class and owner occupied suburb. Inland from Gorleston is Lothingland, a large low lying area that, like Bradwell, was in Suffolk before 1974. Further north up the cast is Caister-on-Sea (not to be confused with Caistor in the Lincolnshire Wolds), which, like Bradwell, has two wards and around 10,000 population. Still further north and west, and more rural, are Ormesby, East Flegg and West Flegg, and Fleggburgh.
These are all in effect part of rural Norfolk, which has become very Conservative in recent decades. Not only do they between them elected 16 Tories and three Independents in May 2019, but in the Norfolk county council contests of 2021 the Conservatives could be said to have given Labour a good ‘flegging’: by 72% to 14% in East Flegg, 68% to 14% in West Flegg. At county level Labour only triumphed in Magdalen and Yarmouth Nelson & Southtown, even though 2021 was not one of their worse years. The hinterland is characterised by an older age structure: over 30% in Caister South (for example), which also tends to EU ‘leave’ type opinions.
Therefore on top of a history of Labour only winning in their best general election years, the Great Yarmouth seat has a combination of characteristics that suggest it has become an even less likely target. Relative to the national averages it is aged, less educationally qualified, more working class, more white and more (literally) insular: it had the 7th highest proportion of residents without a passport of the 659 seats in the 2011 census. Because of its rather isolated location and stable population it is again suggested that there should be no boundary changes in the 2023 review – its lines have already remained unaltered since 1983. That is another difference from the Yarmouth on the Isle of Wight, which has by contrast seen one of the most radical changes in the present review, as it has been split for the first time into two whole seats. There is a far chance that the Conservative hold on either of these will be less secure in the foreseeable future than that in Great Yarmouth.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 20.9% 97/650
Owner-occupied 64.3% 402/650
Private rented 16.5% 212/650
Social rented 17.2% 287/650
White 96.9% 236/650
Black 0.5% 385/650
Asian 1.2% 460/650
No passport 28.9% 7/650
Managerial & professional 21.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 36.0%
Semi-Routine 19.9% 12/650
Professional occupations 10.1% 636/650
Degree level 14.2% 639 /650
No qualifications 32.8% 42/650
Students 5.9% 507/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 62.1% 370/573
Private rented 21.7% 167/573
Social rented 16.2% 248/573
White 94.6%
Black 1.1%
Asian 2.0%
Managerial & professional 22.2% 526/573
Routine & Semi-routine 33.8% 23/573
Degree level 18.3% 571/573
No qualifications 26.5% 31/573
General Election 2019: Great Yarmouth
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Brandon Lewis 28,593 65.8 +11.7
Labour Co-op Mike Smith-Clare 10,930 25.1 −11.0
Liberal Democrats James Joyce 1,661 3.8 +1.6
Green Anne Killett 1,064 2.4 +1.1
Veterans and People's Dave Harding 631 1.5 New
Independent Adrian Myers 429 1.0 New
Independent Margaret McMahon-Morris 154 0.4 New
C Majority 17,663 40.7 +22.7
2019 electorate 71,957
Turnout 43,462 60.4 −1.4
Conservative hold
Swing 11.3 Lab to C