Post by Robert Waller on Dec 24, 2022 22:03:45 GMT
One of the most striking social developments in Britain has been the decline of expressed commitment to Christianity. This made newspaper headlines in autumn 2022 when the findings of the 2021 census relating to religion were released, which confirmed a continuing steep diminution in the number claiming to be Christians compared with 2011. Many of the highest percentages of respondents answering that they had ‘no religion’ were to be found in the former South Wales coalfield. In the constituency of Islwyn, for example, well over half came into that category, 57.9%. This placed the seat 3rd in the list of constituencies in England and Wales. Six of the other seats in the top ten are also in the valleys, with Rhondda ranked at no.1. Why is there such a concentration of unbelief in this sub-region? The answer probably has to do with its denominational history. The coal valleys were strongholds of Nonconformist Protestantism – Methodism, Baptism, Presbyterianism, Congregationalism and so on; essentially it was the land of the chapel, as a study of any historic Ordnance Survey map will show, with all the symbolic plus-sign crosses. This tradition has suffered from a decline in active worship even steeper than that of the ‘Anglican’ branch of the Protestant persuasion.
There is a strong history of relationship between Nonconformity and political preference and voting patterns. Take for example the analysis in Kenneth Wald’s work Crosses on the Ballot (Princeton 1983). As the double meaning of its title implies, in the epoch before the era of class related voting, essentially up to the First World War, the predominant cleavage in British elections was between Nonconformist Liberal voters and Church of England (or at least what the Americans would call episcopalian) Conservatives. With the decline of the Liberal party, there was some element of transfer of Nonconformist support to the Labour party, although its disproportionate survival in parts of the ‘Celtic fringes’ was also associated with continuing Liberal relative success. Certainly Nonconformity was an inhibitor to support for the Conservative party.
Labour strength has indeed weakened in the ex-mining parts of South Wales recently. Although it is hard to see a direct connection with the decline of religious practice, the end of mining and its associated trade unionism must have played a part in a weakening of the community ‘neighbourhood effect’. It is not just the Brexit issue, as a Labour share of over 70% in 1987 (not a nationally good year for the party) fell to the low 60s even when they formed a government in 2005, and to below half (49%) as early as 2010. In December 2019 it reached a new nadir, 44.7% - and the Tories reached 28%, which would have been unthinkable back in the active coalfield days. Even in the 1995 byelection, when no mines were still operative (the last pit, Oakdale, closed in 1989) the Conservative candidate polled just 3.9% (it was Robert Buckland).
That byelection had been caused by the retirement from the Commons of the former Labour party leader, Neil Kinnock. When he had started his parliamentary career in 1970, the constituency was called Bedwellty, also not the easiest place to locate geographically. Neither Bedwellty nor Islwyn are names of prominent towns. Bedwellty had been an ancient parish, then a confected Urban District consisting of the communities of Aberbargoed, Argoed, Blackwood, New Tredegar, and Pengam. Most of these (except New Tredegar) are still in the Islwyn seat, which was created in 1983 to match a new local authority of the same name. That name is a contraction of the parish of Mynyddislwyn (‘below the grove’). Since 1996 in local government terms the area has been subsumed within the Caerphilly county borough and unitary authority. Other communities in the Islwyn division include Markham, home village of the Welsh rugby and darts player Gerwyn Price, Pontllanfraith, Newbridge, Abercarn and Risca. This is very much the heart of the valleys, as the Islwyn seat is almost entirely surrounded by other ex-mining constituencies: Torfaen to the east, Blaenau Gwent to the north, Caerphilly to the south and south west, and Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney to the north west. The exception is a small boundary with Newport West; small, but about to become of greater significance.
In the May 2022 Caerphilly county borough elections, Labour won almost all the electoral divisions within Islwyn with a handful of Independent exceptions such as in Blackwood and Ynysddu. However that location, and the fact that the electorate of the Islwyn seat was a mere 55,423 at the time of the 2019 general election, has consequences. As Wales loses eight constituencies in the current Boundary Commission review, Islwyn will see major changes. Just under a quarter of its voters are transferred to join Caerphilly, these being Pontllanfraith (over 6,300 electors), Cefn Fforest and Pengam (2,800 each) and Maesycymmer (1,800). A small section is also taken away and added to Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney. However the remaining 70% of Islwyn is joined, perhaps in an unlikely combination, with just over half of Newport West. Given these proportions , it seems harsh that the order of the names in the new constituency is proposed to be Newport West and Islwyn. In effect it is Newport West that is the abolished seat, as it forms the minority n two successor constituencies.
The wards of Newport West in the new seat do take in those that lie physically between the city and Islwyn – Rogerston and Graig. But they also include several wards of the city itself: the middle class residential area of Allt-yr-yn, and Gaer and Tredegar Park nearer its centre. Finally added is Marshfield. This is a large rural ward that crosses the M4 and extends all the way to the Severn estuary. This really does not fit with, for example, the far north end of the seat, Argoed ward, which follows the valley of the Sirhowy towards Tredegar, almost at the Heads of the Valleys road. Newport West and Islwyn will therefore be only partially a valleys constituency, and may be one of the more illogical productions of the entire review.
The Tories have a significant presence in several of the Newport wards, including Allt-yr-yn, Rogerstone North and Graig which all elected Tories in the May 2022 Newport elections (on new ward boundaries); in 2017 they had also taken Marshfield and the unified Rogerstone. They actually won the West parliamentary seat in 1983. Overall Newport West and Islwyn may have had a notional majority under 2,000 In 2019, though that looks at present a high water mark for the Conservatives for the foreseeable future. Newport West only ranks 161st in the 2021 census for England and Wales for ‘no religion’. That merely underlines that its pairing with Islwyn is a forced merger of two different traditions and ways of seeing the world; this is caused by the relative drop in population in the heart of the ‘valleys’. Their distinctive culture patterns are therefore in decline in two ways, shrinkage and historical transformation – and the impact they have on British electoral politics is also in the process of reduction.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 17.3% 281/650
Owner-occupied 70.0% 222/650
Private rented 10.4% 553/650
Social rented 18.4% 258/650
White 98.5% 50/650
Black 0.1% 624/650
Asian 0.6% 609/650
Born in UK 97.9% 3/650
Born In Wales 89.5% 4/650
No religion 41.0% 6/650
Managerial & professional 23.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 35.6%
Employed in manufacturing 18.8% 8/650
Degree level 18.1% 571/650
No qualifications 31.6% 66/650
Students 6.4% 405/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 69.0% 194/573
Private rented 12.9% 530/573
Social rented 18.1% 206/573
White 97.9%
Black 0.2%
Asian 0.7%
No religion 56.9% 3/573
Managerial & professional 26.1% 465/573
Routine & Semi-routine 31.6% 52/573
Degree level 24.7% 493/573
No qualifications 23.8% 70/573
Students 5.4% 321/573
General Election 2019: Islwyn
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Chris Evans 15,356 44.7 ―14.1
Conservative Gavin Chambers 9,892 28.8 +1.6
Brexit Party James Wells 4,834 14.1 New
Plaid Cymru Zoe Hammond 2,286 6.7 ―0.9
Liberal Democrats Jo Watkins 1,313 3.8 +1.9
Green Catherine Linstrum 669 1.9 New
Lab Majority 5,464 15.9 ―15.7
Turnout 34,350 62.0 ―2.2
2019 Registered electors 55,423
Labour Co-op hold
Swing 7.9 Lab to C
There is a strong history of relationship between Nonconformity and political preference and voting patterns. Take for example the analysis in Kenneth Wald’s work Crosses on the Ballot (Princeton 1983). As the double meaning of its title implies, in the epoch before the era of class related voting, essentially up to the First World War, the predominant cleavage in British elections was between Nonconformist Liberal voters and Church of England (or at least what the Americans would call episcopalian) Conservatives. With the decline of the Liberal party, there was some element of transfer of Nonconformist support to the Labour party, although its disproportionate survival in parts of the ‘Celtic fringes’ was also associated with continuing Liberal relative success. Certainly Nonconformity was an inhibitor to support for the Conservative party.
Labour strength has indeed weakened in the ex-mining parts of South Wales recently. Although it is hard to see a direct connection with the decline of religious practice, the end of mining and its associated trade unionism must have played a part in a weakening of the community ‘neighbourhood effect’. It is not just the Brexit issue, as a Labour share of over 70% in 1987 (not a nationally good year for the party) fell to the low 60s even when they formed a government in 2005, and to below half (49%) as early as 2010. In December 2019 it reached a new nadir, 44.7% - and the Tories reached 28%, which would have been unthinkable back in the active coalfield days. Even in the 1995 byelection, when no mines were still operative (the last pit, Oakdale, closed in 1989) the Conservative candidate polled just 3.9% (it was Robert Buckland).
That byelection had been caused by the retirement from the Commons of the former Labour party leader, Neil Kinnock. When he had started his parliamentary career in 1970, the constituency was called Bedwellty, also not the easiest place to locate geographically. Neither Bedwellty nor Islwyn are names of prominent towns. Bedwellty had been an ancient parish, then a confected Urban District consisting of the communities of Aberbargoed, Argoed, Blackwood, New Tredegar, and Pengam. Most of these (except New Tredegar) are still in the Islwyn seat, which was created in 1983 to match a new local authority of the same name. That name is a contraction of the parish of Mynyddislwyn (‘below the grove’). Since 1996 in local government terms the area has been subsumed within the Caerphilly county borough and unitary authority. Other communities in the Islwyn division include Markham, home village of the Welsh rugby and darts player Gerwyn Price, Pontllanfraith, Newbridge, Abercarn and Risca. This is very much the heart of the valleys, as the Islwyn seat is almost entirely surrounded by other ex-mining constituencies: Torfaen to the east, Blaenau Gwent to the north, Caerphilly to the south and south west, and Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney to the north west. The exception is a small boundary with Newport West; small, but about to become of greater significance.
In the May 2022 Caerphilly county borough elections, Labour won almost all the electoral divisions within Islwyn with a handful of Independent exceptions such as in Blackwood and Ynysddu. However that location, and the fact that the electorate of the Islwyn seat was a mere 55,423 at the time of the 2019 general election, has consequences. As Wales loses eight constituencies in the current Boundary Commission review, Islwyn will see major changes. Just under a quarter of its voters are transferred to join Caerphilly, these being Pontllanfraith (over 6,300 electors), Cefn Fforest and Pengam (2,800 each) and Maesycymmer (1,800). A small section is also taken away and added to Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney. However the remaining 70% of Islwyn is joined, perhaps in an unlikely combination, with just over half of Newport West. Given these proportions , it seems harsh that the order of the names in the new constituency is proposed to be Newport West and Islwyn. In effect it is Newport West that is the abolished seat, as it forms the minority n two successor constituencies.
The wards of Newport West in the new seat do take in those that lie physically between the city and Islwyn – Rogerston and Graig. But they also include several wards of the city itself: the middle class residential area of Allt-yr-yn, and Gaer and Tredegar Park nearer its centre. Finally added is Marshfield. This is a large rural ward that crosses the M4 and extends all the way to the Severn estuary. This really does not fit with, for example, the far north end of the seat, Argoed ward, which follows the valley of the Sirhowy towards Tredegar, almost at the Heads of the Valleys road. Newport West and Islwyn will therefore be only partially a valleys constituency, and may be one of the more illogical productions of the entire review.
The Tories have a significant presence in several of the Newport wards, including Allt-yr-yn, Rogerstone North and Graig which all elected Tories in the May 2022 Newport elections (on new ward boundaries); in 2017 they had also taken Marshfield and the unified Rogerstone. They actually won the West parliamentary seat in 1983. Overall Newport West and Islwyn may have had a notional majority under 2,000 In 2019, though that looks at present a high water mark for the Conservatives for the foreseeable future. Newport West only ranks 161st in the 2021 census for England and Wales for ‘no religion’. That merely underlines that its pairing with Islwyn is a forced merger of two different traditions and ways of seeing the world; this is caused by the relative drop in population in the heart of the ‘valleys’. Their distinctive culture patterns are therefore in decline in two ways, shrinkage and historical transformation – and the impact they have on British electoral politics is also in the process of reduction.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 17.3% 281/650
Owner-occupied 70.0% 222/650
Private rented 10.4% 553/650
Social rented 18.4% 258/650
White 98.5% 50/650
Black 0.1% 624/650
Asian 0.6% 609/650
Born in UK 97.9% 3/650
Born In Wales 89.5% 4/650
No religion 41.0% 6/650
Managerial & professional 23.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 35.6%
Employed in manufacturing 18.8% 8/650
Degree level 18.1% 571/650
No qualifications 31.6% 66/650
Students 6.4% 405/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 69.0% 194/573
Private rented 12.9% 530/573
Social rented 18.1% 206/573
White 97.9%
Black 0.2%
Asian 0.7%
No religion 56.9% 3/573
Managerial & professional 26.1% 465/573
Routine & Semi-routine 31.6% 52/573
Degree level 24.7% 493/573
No qualifications 23.8% 70/573
Students 5.4% 321/573
General Election 2019: Islwyn
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Chris Evans 15,356 44.7 ―14.1
Conservative Gavin Chambers 9,892 28.8 +1.6
Brexit Party James Wells 4,834 14.1 New
Plaid Cymru Zoe Hammond 2,286 6.7 ―0.9
Liberal Democrats Jo Watkins 1,313 3.8 +1.9
Green Catherine Linstrum 669 1.9 New
Lab Majority 5,464 15.9 ―15.7
Turnout 34,350 62.0 ―2.2
2019 Registered electors 55,423
Labour Co-op hold
Swing 7.9 Lab to C