Post by Robert Waller on Dec 19, 2022 18:15:03 GMT
There was a time when North was the safe Labour seat in Norfolk’s county town, and South was a marginal that the Conservatives could win. That situation no longer applies. The Tories have not come first in Norwich South since 1983, whereas they gained North in a byelection in 2009 and have triumphed four more times since. This reversal is chiefly due to boundary changes – but that is not the whole explanation, or story.
The seat called Norwich North was held continuously by Labour from its creation in 1950 until the first Thatcher landslide of 1983 (ironically the last time they won South). From 1976 to 1979 its MP held a Cabinet post: David Ennals (Social Security). However that version of North was entirely located within the county borough of Norwich’s boundaries, and included the more working class of the city’s residential areas.
Norwich is one of those places where the built up area (it is not really large enough to call it a conurbation) extends beyond the tighter boundaries of the core local authority, as is the case with, say, Nottingham and Leicester. This has an electoral effect, as significant Conservative suburban areas may be excluded from the city constituencies, leaving them as safely Labour – again, as in the aforementioned examples. However, Norwich is no longer large enough by comparison with the rise in the electoral quota to justify two constituencies of its own; this is part of a long term deficiency in relative population growth compared with other English cities that has gradually been taking effect since the medieval period, when it was the second biggest in England and a major economic centre due mainly to wool and textiles. Therefore since 1983 Norwich North as included very substantial elements of suburban terrain included in the Broadland District. This led to it being won by the Conservatives in all elections since, except for the three Blair victories of 1997 through 2005.
Only four of the City of Norwich wards are included in North at present, compared with the nine in the South constituency. By far the largest part of the electorate of North is provided by the seven Broadland wards, which cover the communities of Hellesdon, Old Catton, New Catton, Sprowston and Thorpe St Andrew. It is not really possible to tell exactly where any of these intersect with the Norwich city boundaries, nor even in some cases where they differ from each other. On a map the Broadland contribution to North looks like a slightly wonky halo or crown, curving above Norwich from the north west to due east.
The Broadland wards are mainly heavily owner occupied, such as 90% in Sprowston East, and strongly Conservative. The only exception is Sprowston Central, which elected two Labour councillors in the most recent Broadland council elections in May 2019. The other wards returned 15 Tories and one Liberal Democrat, in Hellesdon South East. Within the Norwich section there are examples of the high level of social rented housing which has long characterized this authority, such as 50% in Mile Cross, 38% in Crome, and 33% in Catton Grove. This is the core of that former strong Labour inclination when North really was a ‘Norwich’ division. In May 2022, the most recent Norwich city elections, Labour won all these three easily, with absolute majorities of the votes cast. The fourth city ward in this seat, Sewell, does not have extensive former council estates and was also exceptional in its politics, with a Green party gain from Labour.
Sewell may not be electorally typical of the Norwich North seat, but it is actually more typical of Norwich council politics as a whole, where the Greens form the main opposition to Labour with 11 councillors after May 2022 to Labour’s 25 and just three for the Liberal Democrats - none at all for the Tories, a very different situation from Broadland. Overall, the stark difference character between Norwich North and Norwich South parliamentary seats may be seen in the social, economic and demographic statistics. South was 45% owner occupied, North 65%, at the time of the last census for which all figures are available, 2011. In North the ‘middle class’ professional and managerial occupations accounted for around five per cent more individuals than the ‘working class’ routine and semi-routine; this situation was revered in North. Most striking of all are a number of figures associated with education. In Norwich South over 30% of adult residents held university degrees, which placed the seat in the top quartile on this variable, but in North fewer than 20% did – almost four fifths of the way down the list of constituencies. Finally, 17.8% in South were full time students, well into the top decile. In North the figure was 5.7% substantially below the national average.
This not only tells us much about the very different characters of the two seats, but is also relevant for their strongly opposed political preferences. South is very much the ‘higher academic’ seat. The University of East Anglia is here, indeed, there is now a University ward. Students clearly live either on campus or in the South seat; here is the ‘golden triangle’, simultaneously bohemian and fashionable, due west of the city centre – all of which is in effect in South. There is a clear connection between the element of intellectualism in South and its colourful recent electoral history: generally won by Labour but with a Liberal Democrat victory in 2010, and a Green surge into third place in 2015 when the LD MP Simon Wright actually managed to slump to fourth place, surely one of the very worst penalties exacted for the Clegg-Cameron coalition. In the Corbyn election of 2017 and the Brexit election of 2019 Labour’s left-wing Clive Lewis did very well, winning by a five figure margin on both occasions. Norwich South is estimated to have preferred ‘Remain’ in the EU’ with nearly 60% in 2016, whereas North probably voted Leave with over 56% - a massive difference within a single urban unit. Therefore the way that electoral politics has become correlated with educational profiles, and the rise of issues such as that of attitudes to 'Europe' along with decline of the class factor in elections, have all also played their part in the bifurcation between Norwich South and North as well as the boundary changes.
For all that Norwich North has the nature of stony ground for Labour since the end of Blairism as its predominant tone - white, fairly working class, unintellectual –it is still the kind of seat that they need to win to form a government at least with anywhere near a comfortable working majority. They missed gaining North by 507 votes in 2017 and on current boundaries require a swing of just over 5% from the Tories, easily within their compass on the opinion poll and real election evidence in late 2022. However their task will be made slightly harder by the boundary changes suggested in the Commission’s revised report, which further strengthen the ‘Broadland’ part of the seat by adding the two Drayton wards, which returned Conservatives with shares of 56.8% (Drayton North) in a straight fight with a Liberal Democrat and 58.9% in a three way contest in Drayton South.
This part of ‘Greater Norwich’ will be a key test for Labour in the next general election. Not only will its notional percentage majority be in the critical zone for the number of gains necessary actually to win power, but they will need to show they can win in this kind of seat, as they did when Tony Blair’s New Labour secured three terms. Unlike Norwich South, this constituency is very much part of ‘middle England’. This may be indicated by a couple of unexciting statistics – it is very high in the list of constituencies whose residents report they have good health, not very good or poor; and it is 3rd out of 650 for those households which have just the one car, not more or none. Norwich North may not superficially cover a very interesting set of places, but in political terms it should be seen as very much doing so.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 19.1% 171/650
Very good heath 42.2% 601/650
Good health 37.7% 3/650
Owner-occupied 64.8% 387/650
Private rented 13.4% 374/650
Social rented 20.3% 210/650
White 95.4% 312/650
Black 0.9% 286 /650
Asian 1.9% 374/650
Managerial & professional 26.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.0%
1 car in household 49.0% 4/650
Degree level 19.8% 523/650
No qualifications 26.3% 205/650
Students 5.7% 542/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 63.8% 335/573
Private rented 16.3% 372/573
Social rented 20.0% 154/573
White 93.0%
Black 1.4%
Asian 2.6%
Managerial & professional 28.9% 374/573
Routine & Semi-routine 29.0% 118/573
Degree level 26.6% 440/573
No qualifications 20.0% 196/573
General Election 2019: Norwich North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Chloe Smith 23,397 50.5 +2.8
Labour Karen Davis 18,659 40.3 -6.3
Liberal Democrats David Thomas 2,663 5.8 +2.6
Green Adrian Holmes 1,078 2.3 +0.6
UKIP David Moreland 488 1.1 New
C Majority 4,738 10.2 +9.1
2019 electorate 67,172
Turnout 46,285 68.9 +0.2
Conservative hold
Swing 4.6 Lab to C
The seat called Norwich North was held continuously by Labour from its creation in 1950 until the first Thatcher landslide of 1983 (ironically the last time they won South). From 1976 to 1979 its MP held a Cabinet post: David Ennals (Social Security). However that version of North was entirely located within the county borough of Norwich’s boundaries, and included the more working class of the city’s residential areas.
Norwich is one of those places where the built up area (it is not really large enough to call it a conurbation) extends beyond the tighter boundaries of the core local authority, as is the case with, say, Nottingham and Leicester. This has an electoral effect, as significant Conservative suburban areas may be excluded from the city constituencies, leaving them as safely Labour – again, as in the aforementioned examples. However, Norwich is no longer large enough by comparison with the rise in the electoral quota to justify two constituencies of its own; this is part of a long term deficiency in relative population growth compared with other English cities that has gradually been taking effect since the medieval period, when it was the second biggest in England and a major economic centre due mainly to wool and textiles. Therefore since 1983 Norwich North as included very substantial elements of suburban terrain included in the Broadland District. This led to it being won by the Conservatives in all elections since, except for the three Blair victories of 1997 through 2005.
Only four of the City of Norwich wards are included in North at present, compared with the nine in the South constituency. By far the largest part of the electorate of North is provided by the seven Broadland wards, which cover the communities of Hellesdon, Old Catton, New Catton, Sprowston and Thorpe St Andrew. It is not really possible to tell exactly where any of these intersect with the Norwich city boundaries, nor even in some cases where they differ from each other. On a map the Broadland contribution to North looks like a slightly wonky halo or crown, curving above Norwich from the north west to due east.
The Broadland wards are mainly heavily owner occupied, such as 90% in Sprowston East, and strongly Conservative. The only exception is Sprowston Central, which elected two Labour councillors in the most recent Broadland council elections in May 2019. The other wards returned 15 Tories and one Liberal Democrat, in Hellesdon South East. Within the Norwich section there are examples of the high level of social rented housing which has long characterized this authority, such as 50% in Mile Cross, 38% in Crome, and 33% in Catton Grove. This is the core of that former strong Labour inclination when North really was a ‘Norwich’ division. In May 2022, the most recent Norwich city elections, Labour won all these three easily, with absolute majorities of the votes cast. The fourth city ward in this seat, Sewell, does not have extensive former council estates and was also exceptional in its politics, with a Green party gain from Labour.
Sewell may not be electorally typical of the Norwich North seat, but it is actually more typical of Norwich council politics as a whole, where the Greens form the main opposition to Labour with 11 councillors after May 2022 to Labour’s 25 and just three for the Liberal Democrats - none at all for the Tories, a very different situation from Broadland. Overall, the stark difference character between Norwich North and Norwich South parliamentary seats may be seen in the social, economic and demographic statistics. South was 45% owner occupied, North 65%, at the time of the last census for which all figures are available, 2011. In North the ‘middle class’ professional and managerial occupations accounted for around five per cent more individuals than the ‘working class’ routine and semi-routine; this situation was revered in North. Most striking of all are a number of figures associated with education. In Norwich South over 30% of adult residents held university degrees, which placed the seat in the top quartile on this variable, but in North fewer than 20% did – almost four fifths of the way down the list of constituencies. Finally, 17.8% in South were full time students, well into the top decile. In North the figure was 5.7% substantially below the national average.
This not only tells us much about the very different characters of the two seats, but is also relevant for their strongly opposed political preferences. South is very much the ‘higher academic’ seat. The University of East Anglia is here, indeed, there is now a University ward. Students clearly live either on campus or in the South seat; here is the ‘golden triangle’, simultaneously bohemian and fashionable, due west of the city centre – all of which is in effect in South. There is a clear connection between the element of intellectualism in South and its colourful recent electoral history: generally won by Labour but with a Liberal Democrat victory in 2010, and a Green surge into third place in 2015 when the LD MP Simon Wright actually managed to slump to fourth place, surely one of the very worst penalties exacted for the Clegg-Cameron coalition. In the Corbyn election of 2017 and the Brexit election of 2019 Labour’s left-wing Clive Lewis did very well, winning by a five figure margin on both occasions. Norwich South is estimated to have preferred ‘Remain’ in the EU’ with nearly 60% in 2016, whereas North probably voted Leave with over 56% - a massive difference within a single urban unit. Therefore the way that electoral politics has become correlated with educational profiles, and the rise of issues such as that of attitudes to 'Europe' along with decline of the class factor in elections, have all also played their part in the bifurcation between Norwich South and North as well as the boundary changes.
For all that Norwich North has the nature of stony ground for Labour since the end of Blairism as its predominant tone - white, fairly working class, unintellectual –it is still the kind of seat that they need to win to form a government at least with anywhere near a comfortable working majority. They missed gaining North by 507 votes in 2017 and on current boundaries require a swing of just over 5% from the Tories, easily within their compass on the opinion poll and real election evidence in late 2022. However their task will be made slightly harder by the boundary changes suggested in the Commission’s revised report, which further strengthen the ‘Broadland’ part of the seat by adding the two Drayton wards, which returned Conservatives with shares of 56.8% (Drayton North) in a straight fight with a Liberal Democrat and 58.9% in a three way contest in Drayton South.
This part of ‘Greater Norwich’ will be a key test for Labour in the next general election. Not only will its notional percentage majority be in the critical zone for the number of gains necessary actually to win power, but they will need to show they can win in this kind of seat, as they did when Tony Blair’s New Labour secured three terms. Unlike Norwich South, this constituency is very much part of ‘middle England’. This may be indicated by a couple of unexciting statistics – it is very high in the list of constituencies whose residents report they have good health, not very good or poor; and it is 3rd out of 650 for those households which have just the one car, not more or none. Norwich North may not superficially cover a very interesting set of places, but in political terms it should be seen as very much doing so.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 19.1% 171/650
Very good heath 42.2% 601/650
Good health 37.7% 3/650
Owner-occupied 64.8% 387/650
Private rented 13.4% 374/650
Social rented 20.3% 210/650
White 95.4% 312/650
Black 0.9% 286 /650
Asian 1.9% 374/650
Managerial & professional 26.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.0%
1 car in household 49.0% 4/650
Degree level 19.8% 523/650
No qualifications 26.3% 205/650
Students 5.7% 542/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 63.8% 335/573
Private rented 16.3% 372/573
Social rented 20.0% 154/573
White 93.0%
Black 1.4%
Asian 2.6%
Managerial & professional 28.9% 374/573
Routine & Semi-routine 29.0% 118/573
Degree level 26.6% 440/573
No qualifications 20.0% 196/573
General Election 2019: Norwich North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Chloe Smith 23,397 50.5 +2.8
Labour Karen Davis 18,659 40.3 -6.3
Liberal Democrats David Thomas 2,663 5.8 +2.6
Green Adrian Holmes 1,078 2.3 +0.6
UKIP David Moreland 488 1.1 New
C Majority 4,738 10.2 +9.1
2019 electorate 67,172
Turnout 46,285 68.9 +0.2
Conservative hold
Swing 4.6 Lab to C
