Post by Robert Waller on Dec 18, 2022 0:01:50 GMT
The ‘fair city’ of Perth has claims to be in some ways the heart of Scotland. The Visitors Guide to Scotland claims that it was the nation’s first capital. It is close to Scone Palace, where medieval monarchs were crowned while sitting on the Stone of Destiny. Physically Perth is located in a strategic location on Scotland’s longest river, the Tay, close to the effective border between Lowlands and Highlands (there is even a local authority ward named Highland currently in the seat), and in modern terms just off the A9, the longest road in Scotland, which definitely ties the central belt to the north. Perhaps because of its geographical situation, successive Boundary Commissions do not seem to be sure with what other terrain to pair the city of Perth, and the present review is no exception.
Up to 1950 there was a parliamentary seat by the plain name of Perth but it was then renamed Perth and East Perthshire. That lasted until 1983 (with minor boundary adjustments in 1974) when it was replaced by Perth and Kinross (a small county previously associated with West Perthshire). But in 1997 that constituency was split five ways and Perth reappeared in the nomenclature. That lasted just eight years. Since 2005 Perth has been paired with ‘North Perthshire’, while the rest of the county has been linked southwards to Ochil (the Clackmannan sub-region).
There will be substantial changes again before the next general election, but some observations may be made about the present seat and indeed its predecessors. Whichever extraneous territory has been added to Perth, the contests have frequently been close, sometimes very close indeed, and the significant contestants have been the Conservative and Scottish National parties. On the other hand, despite this clear history of marginality, there have been relatively few actual changes of hand.
Perth (and East Perthshire) was first won by the SNP in October 1974, by only 793 votes, and the Conservative Bill Walker regained it in 1979. In 1983 another Tory, Nicholas Fairbairn (who had himself won Kinross & West Perthshire by only 53 in the second 1974 election), took Perth & Kinross and held it till his death in 1995, but in the consequent byelection it was gained by the SNP. They have never lost the seat covering Perth since, despite some perilously thin majorities (such as 48 in 2001, when the winning 29.7% was the lowest of any of the 659 in the UK). Indeed Pete Wishart, the former musician who entered the Commons in 2001 and has represented this seat since 2005, is now the longest-standing serving SNP MP. He won by just over 1,500 in 2005, and by a mere 21 votes in 2017. Personal votes are frequently overstated in the analysis of British elections, and in any case very hard to quantify, but they do exist in some degree and may have decided or influenced the outcome in some of the close contests over these decades – either helping a retention or weakening a party when their candidates are new. No incumbent has been defeated in a Perth seat since 1979.
Of the double tradition of this part of Scotland generating close results but the ultimate triumph of the incumbent party, the latter seems likely to prevail next time. If we consider the most recent elections in this area, in the Scottish Parliament elections of 2021 the SNP held both Perthshire seats, which have different boundaries from those set for Westminster contests. Then, in those in May 2022 for the Perth and Kinross council, the Nationalists were ahead in first preferences in all but two wards within the current boundaries of this division. These two were Blairgowrie & Glens (where the Conservatives got 45.5% to the SNP’s 40.3%), and Perth City South, where the Liberal Democrats headed the polls with 33.9%, while the SNP’s candidates took 33.6% first preferences between them. As this implies, there is a range of wards with different characteristics both within the city of Perth and across the wider constituency.
With a population of nearly 50,000, Perth itself is large enough to have a mosaic of disparate neighbourhoods, which have differing political experiences and views. Perth City South is by far the most middle class and affluent. It includes solid owner occupied housing in area such as Craigie, Cherrybank, Burghmuir and Woodlands. Well under 10% of the housing was in the social rented sector at the time of Scotland’s Census of 2011. Nearly 40% of adult residents held university degrees. Over a quarter were in the AB social groups and over two thirds in the ABC1 ‘middle class’ categories. By stark contrast, in Perth City North, across the Rannoch Road, the patterns were decidedly working class. Only 10% were in the AB occupations and over half C2DEs. Fewer than 20% had degrees and 30% no educational qualifications. Over a third lived in social rented housing. This reflects the presence of the large council estates such as Letham and Tulloch, where one really could be in any Scottish industrial town. City North is by far the SNP’s strongest ward in the whole of the Perth & Kinross council area – their 55% first preferences in 2022 was easily enough to elect two of the three ward councillors, as had been the case in 2017. Finally, Perth City Centre ward, which also covers the parts of Perth east of the River Tay, such as Kinnoull and Gannochy, as well as the fine heart of the city around St Ninian’s Cathedral, the three bridges across the Tay, the High Street, the Black Watch Castle and Museum, and the green space of the South Inch. Despite this fine aspect, the City Centre ward demographics are actually all closer to those of City North than City South, and so are its political preferences: 40% SNP, 25% Conservative, 20% LD and 10% Labour.
Outside Perth city, the top two places in the 2022 local elections were taken in all instances by the SNP and the Conservatives, almost invariably in that order. The strongest Nationalist area was Strathtay (46.5% first preferences to the Tories’ 35%). Strathtay is a large expanse north west of Perth, as the name implies following the valley of the river towards its source, centred on the tiny cathedral town of Dunkeld and Birnam (as in Macbeth). To the north east of Perth stretches Strathmore (many of these wards are larger than an average constituency) which includes Scone at the end nearest Perth, Coupar Angus in its centre and Alyth towards the far end. The SNP outpolled the Conservatives 36% to 30%, with an Independent presence as well. Between Strathtay and Strathmore, due north of Perth, is the one May 2022 Conservative stronghold: Blairgowrie and the Glens. At its southern end is the only significant settlement, the twin burghs of Blairgowrie and Rattray (conveniently known to locals as ‘Blair’). A population of 9,000 makes it the second largest urban unit in the constituency. As its name implies this ward extends many miles northwards, almost to the sculpture park in Glenshee. We must be careful before we assume that Blairgowrie & the Glens is the strongest Conservative area in parliamentary as well as local elections, as individual candidates can make a big difference in these parts; and Caroline Shiers has been a Tory councillor here since the first STV election in the ward in 2007.
There is one more ward to mention: Highland. This is so sparsely populated that it accounts for half the acreage of the whole Perth & North Perthshire constituency – roughly, covering the northern and western halves. Here we are in the former Pictish kingdom of Atholl. Highland includes the small towns of Pitlochry and Aberfeldy, Lochs Tummel, Rannoch and almost the whole of the length of Loch Tay from Kenmare almost to Killin, and Blair Atholl with its castle, the traditional home of the Dukes of Atholl. The predominant economic tone here is of tourism, with Pitlochry in particular the location of several Scottish baronial style hotels. The Kenmare Hotel is also of indirect Almanac relevance as my favored jumping off spot for research trips into all corners of Scotland, for which it is well placed; the first time I ever went to Kenmare, by coincidence Denis Healey walked out of its front door. In May 2022 Highland elected one SNP, one Conservative and one Independent councillor to Perth & Kinross council. However it will no longer be associated with Perth in the next Westminster contest.
Once again the game of musical chairs has been played and the latest partner for Perth takes the form of Perth and Loch Leven.
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/revised_constituency_maps/perth_and_loch_leven.pdf
Most of the ‘North Perthshire’ part of this seat will be placed with most of Angus in a reconstituted North Tayside constituency, similar to the one that existed between 1983 and 2005 (for Westminster purposes; a version of North Tayside existed for Holyrood Parliament purposes between 1999 and 2011). This will take most of Strathtay and Strathmore and the whole of Blairgowrie & Glens and Highland wards. Instead, Perth city will be joined by the whole of Carse of Gowrie (some of which was previously in Dundee West), Strathearn, Almond & Earn and Kinrossshire, which are effectively the South Perthshire sections of the present Ochil & South Perthshire seat. This has also been an SNP-Conservative marginal, which has actually changed hands more often than Perth & N Perthshire in recent general elections.
Therefore the overall pattern will be the same as all the other Perth based seats in the past few decades: SNP versus the Tories who may be seen as the lead representatives of unionism in these parts. Politics in this key hinge seat at the crossroads of many traditions in Scotland have been tightly balanced on many occasions in its rich past, and it is a fair bet that the Perth based seat will see a close contest again at some point in the future.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 20.0% 134/650
Owner-occupied 62.8% 435/650
Private rented 15.7% 245/650
Social rented 19.5% 235/650
White 97.7% 163/650
Black 0.3% 469/650
Asian 1.5% 405/650
Managerial & professional 31.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 28.3%
Degree level 28.7% 218/650
No qualifications 24.8% 260/650
Students 5.7% 533/650
General Election 2019: Perth and North Perthshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Pete Wishart 27,362 50.6 +8.3
Conservative Angus Forbes 19,812 36.6 -5.7
Liberal Democrats Peter Barrett 3,780 7.0 +2.0
Labour Angela Bretherton 2,471 4.6 -5.8
Brexit Party Stuart Powell 651 1.2 New
SNP Majority 7,550 14.0 +13.9
2019 electorate 72,600
Turnout 54,076 74.4 +2.6
SNP hold
Swing 7.0 C to SNP
Up to 1950 there was a parliamentary seat by the plain name of Perth but it was then renamed Perth and East Perthshire. That lasted until 1983 (with minor boundary adjustments in 1974) when it was replaced by Perth and Kinross (a small county previously associated with West Perthshire). But in 1997 that constituency was split five ways and Perth reappeared in the nomenclature. That lasted just eight years. Since 2005 Perth has been paired with ‘North Perthshire’, while the rest of the county has been linked southwards to Ochil (the Clackmannan sub-region).
There will be substantial changes again before the next general election, but some observations may be made about the present seat and indeed its predecessors. Whichever extraneous territory has been added to Perth, the contests have frequently been close, sometimes very close indeed, and the significant contestants have been the Conservative and Scottish National parties. On the other hand, despite this clear history of marginality, there have been relatively few actual changes of hand.
Perth (and East Perthshire) was first won by the SNP in October 1974, by only 793 votes, and the Conservative Bill Walker regained it in 1979. In 1983 another Tory, Nicholas Fairbairn (who had himself won Kinross & West Perthshire by only 53 in the second 1974 election), took Perth & Kinross and held it till his death in 1995, but in the consequent byelection it was gained by the SNP. They have never lost the seat covering Perth since, despite some perilously thin majorities (such as 48 in 2001, when the winning 29.7% was the lowest of any of the 659 in the UK). Indeed Pete Wishart, the former musician who entered the Commons in 2001 and has represented this seat since 2005, is now the longest-standing serving SNP MP. He won by just over 1,500 in 2005, and by a mere 21 votes in 2017. Personal votes are frequently overstated in the analysis of British elections, and in any case very hard to quantify, but they do exist in some degree and may have decided or influenced the outcome in some of the close contests over these decades – either helping a retention or weakening a party when their candidates are new. No incumbent has been defeated in a Perth seat since 1979.
Of the double tradition of this part of Scotland generating close results but the ultimate triumph of the incumbent party, the latter seems likely to prevail next time. If we consider the most recent elections in this area, in the Scottish Parliament elections of 2021 the SNP held both Perthshire seats, which have different boundaries from those set for Westminster contests. Then, in those in May 2022 for the Perth and Kinross council, the Nationalists were ahead in first preferences in all but two wards within the current boundaries of this division. These two were Blairgowrie & Glens (where the Conservatives got 45.5% to the SNP’s 40.3%), and Perth City South, where the Liberal Democrats headed the polls with 33.9%, while the SNP’s candidates took 33.6% first preferences between them. As this implies, there is a range of wards with different characteristics both within the city of Perth and across the wider constituency.
With a population of nearly 50,000, Perth itself is large enough to have a mosaic of disparate neighbourhoods, which have differing political experiences and views. Perth City South is by far the most middle class and affluent. It includes solid owner occupied housing in area such as Craigie, Cherrybank, Burghmuir and Woodlands. Well under 10% of the housing was in the social rented sector at the time of Scotland’s Census of 2011. Nearly 40% of adult residents held university degrees. Over a quarter were in the AB social groups and over two thirds in the ABC1 ‘middle class’ categories. By stark contrast, in Perth City North, across the Rannoch Road, the patterns were decidedly working class. Only 10% were in the AB occupations and over half C2DEs. Fewer than 20% had degrees and 30% no educational qualifications. Over a third lived in social rented housing. This reflects the presence of the large council estates such as Letham and Tulloch, where one really could be in any Scottish industrial town. City North is by far the SNP’s strongest ward in the whole of the Perth & Kinross council area – their 55% first preferences in 2022 was easily enough to elect two of the three ward councillors, as had been the case in 2017. Finally, Perth City Centre ward, which also covers the parts of Perth east of the River Tay, such as Kinnoull and Gannochy, as well as the fine heart of the city around St Ninian’s Cathedral, the three bridges across the Tay, the High Street, the Black Watch Castle and Museum, and the green space of the South Inch. Despite this fine aspect, the City Centre ward demographics are actually all closer to those of City North than City South, and so are its political preferences: 40% SNP, 25% Conservative, 20% LD and 10% Labour.
Outside Perth city, the top two places in the 2022 local elections were taken in all instances by the SNP and the Conservatives, almost invariably in that order. The strongest Nationalist area was Strathtay (46.5% first preferences to the Tories’ 35%). Strathtay is a large expanse north west of Perth, as the name implies following the valley of the river towards its source, centred on the tiny cathedral town of Dunkeld and Birnam (as in Macbeth). To the north east of Perth stretches Strathmore (many of these wards are larger than an average constituency) which includes Scone at the end nearest Perth, Coupar Angus in its centre and Alyth towards the far end. The SNP outpolled the Conservatives 36% to 30%, with an Independent presence as well. Between Strathtay and Strathmore, due north of Perth, is the one May 2022 Conservative stronghold: Blairgowrie and the Glens. At its southern end is the only significant settlement, the twin burghs of Blairgowrie and Rattray (conveniently known to locals as ‘Blair’). A population of 9,000 makes it the second largest urban unit in the constituency. As its name implies this ward extends many miles northwards, almost to the sculpture park in Glenshee. We must be careful before we assume that Blairgowrie & the Glens is the strongest Conservative area in parliamentary as well as local elections, as individual candidates can make a big difference in these parts; and Caroline Shiers has been a Tory councillor here since the first STV election in the ward in 2007.
There is one more ward to mention: Highland. This is so sparsely populated that it accounts for half the acreage of the whole Perth & North Perthshire constituency – roughly, covering the northern and western halves. Here we are in the former Pictish kingdom of Atholl. Highland includes the small towns of Pitlochry and Aberfeldy, Lochs Tummel, Rannoch and almost the whole of the length of Loch Tay from Kenmare almost to Killin, and Blair Atholl with its castle, the traditional home of the Dukes of Atholl. The predominant economic tone here is of tourism, with Pitlochry in particular the location of several Scottish baronial style hotels. The Kenmare Hotel is also of indirect Almanac relevance as my favored jumping off spot for research trips into all corners of Scotland, for which it is well placed; the first time I ever went to Kenmare, by coincidence Denis Healey walked out of its front door. In May 2022 Highland elected one SNP, one Conservative and one Independent councillor to Perth & Kinross council. However it will no longer be associated with Perth in the next Westminster contest.
Once again the game of musical chairs has been played and the latest partner for Perth takes the form of Perth and Loch Leven.
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/revised_constituency_maps/perth_and_loch_leven.pdf
Most of the ‘North Perthshire’ part of this seat will be placed with most of Angus in a reconstituted North Tayside constituency, similar to the one that existed between 1983 and 2005 (for Westminster purposes; a version of North Tayside existed for Holyrood Parliament purposes between 1999 and 2011). This will take most of Strathtay and Strathmore and the whole of Blairgowrie & Glens and Highland wards. Instead, Perth city will be joined by the whole of Carse of Gowrie (some of which was previously in Dundee West), Strathearn, Almond & Earn and Kinrossshire, which are effectively the South Perthshire sections of the present Ochil & South Perthshire seat. This has also been an SNP-Conservative marginal, which has actually changed hands more often than Perth & N Perthshire in recent general elections.
Therefore the overall pattern will be the same as all the other Perth based seats in the past few decades: SNP versus the Tories who may be seen as the lead representatives of unionism in these parts. Politics in this key hinge seat at the crossroads of many traditions in Scotland have been tightly balanced on many occasions in its rich past, and it is a fair bet that the Perth based seat will see a close contest again at some point in the future.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 20.0% 134/650
Owner-occupied 62.8% 435/650
Private rented 15.7% 245/650
Social rented 19.5% 235/650
White 97.7% 163/650
Black 0.3% 469/650
Asian 1.5% 405/650
Managerial & professional 31.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 28.3%
Degree level 28.7% 218/650
No qualifications 24.8% 260/650
Students 5.7% 533/650
General Election 2019: Perth and North Perthshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Pete Wishart 27,362 50.6 +8.3
Conservative Angus Forbes 19,812 36.6 -5.7
Liberal Democrats Peter Barrett 3,780 7.0 +2.0
Labour Angela Bretherton 2,471 4.6 -5.8
Brexit Party Stuart Powell 651 1.2 New
SNP Majority 7,550 14.0 +13.9
2019 electorate 72,600
Turnout 54,076 74.4 +2.6
SNP hold
Swing 7.0 C to SNP