Post by Robert Waller on Dec 7, 2022 22:29:52 GMT
Ochil and South Perthshire as it has existed since 2005 is already a distinctly and rather oddly mixed seat, including disparate social and economic elements, that has provided some complex and competitive general election results. In the revised proposals of the Boundary Commission for Scotland, published in November 2022, it will in effect be split up; and the majority will form the core of a new seat that is, frankly, bizarre.
To analyse the current constituency first, it is balanced between urban and rural sections. Although the word Ochil conjures up a bucolic image of the range of hills rising to the height of 2,365 feet at Ben Cleuch, with burns cutting through the glens of Dollar, Silver and Alva, in fact it is here a synonym for the bulk of Clackmannanshire. The political tone is given by the industrial past of its rather gritty small towns: Alloa (the largest, with over 14,000 inhabitants), Alva, Tillicoultry, Sauchie and Clackmannan itself. To understand the electoral tradition here it should be remembered that Clackmannanshire is adjacent to west Fife, and shares a (now defunct) coalfield.
brianfraser47.wixsite.com/walks/post/clackmannan-and-coal-mines
Alloa also has woollen yarn spinning, weaving, glassmaking, the brewing of beer and the distilling of malt. Tullibody was a coal mining and tanning town. In Alva there was textile manufacture and there still is brewing in the shape of Harviestoun. Tillicoultry had a colliery and was a centre of quarrying of whinstone ( technically quartz-dolerite). Yes, the Ochil hills can be seen from these communities, but they are very much part of the Central Scottish industrial belt and they shared its commitment to Labour, until the rise of Nationalism from the 1970s onwards.
Very different characteristics of history and character belongs to the northern, ‘South Perthshire’ section of the constituency; we may also include the rural parts of Clackmannanshire around the small market town of Dollar and the villages of Pool of Muckhart and Yetts o’Muckhart with this portion. Beyond the Ochils and into Perthshire we find Auchterarder: just off the A9 and best known perhaps as the nearest town to the Gleneagles luxury hotel and championship golf courses, and Crieff, still further north, in the Earn valley and on the A85. Now we are in the land of whisky production rather than beer, major centre of rural activities such as cattle markets, and nowadays tourism and leisure as significant sources of employment. The seat also include the small historic county of Kinross, including the Loch Leven known to historic drama.
The two elements in Ochil and South Perthshire have contributed to the constituency’s unusual marginality. In its first contest in 2005 it was win by Gordon Banks (not that one) for Labour, but his winning share of 31.4% was the lowest in any of the 650 general election contests that year. This was because the SNP (30%) and also the Conservatives (21,5%) were credible challengers. In 2010 Banks won more easily, but in 2015he joined the long, indeed almost complete, casualty list of Labour incumbents north of the border as the SNP’s Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh became their, and Scotland’s, first Muslim female MP. Only two years later though a third different party became the victor in Ochil & South Perthshire as the Conservative Luke Graham came from third place to first. He in turn also lasted only two years. In December 2019 John Nicolson, formerly SNP member for East Dunbartonshire, returned to Westminster with a majority of almost 4,500.
Labour were reduced to a extremely poor showing of 8.6% in 2019, a dismal year for them in most regions but certainly in Scotland, but a consideration of the most recent local election results suggests that they may have suffered from ‘unionist’ tactical voting. In the Clackmannanshire council election results of May 2022, Labour finished second to the SNP candidates if the first references are tallied in South (Alloa), West (Tullibody) and Central (Sauchie) wards, achieving nearly 35% in the last named. The Tories were second in North (Alva, Tillicoultry and the hills) and first in East (Clackmannan and Dollar). Overall across Clackmannashire the SNP took 39.5%, Labour 23,8% and the Conservatives 23.2%.
Within the Perth ad Kinross council, however, Labour were, almost literally, nowhere. They did not even contest four of the five wards within Ochil & South Perthshire: Strathearn, Strathtay, Strathallan and Almond & Earn. In Kinross-shire they did put up a lone candidate who managed just 6.6% of the first preferences. In this section the battle is clearly between SNP and Conservative. The Tories won decisively in Almond & Earn, which includes Abernethy and Bridge of Earn and almost touches in the outskirts of Perth itself, attaining the heights of 48% n 2022 to the Nationalists’ 34%. They were also first in Strathallan (Auchterarder) with nearly 47%. In Kinrossshire they were again top, but with a much smaller share, just under 30%, due to a rare strong showing by the Liberal Democrats (21%) splitting opposition to the SNP (25.5%). Finally the Nationalisto did themselves come out on top narrowly in Strathtay (which is only partly included in the Ochil seat) and more convincingly in the Strathearn ward based on Crieff.
Therefore if Ochil & South Perthshire were still to exist at the time of the next General Election, Labour might well advance somewhat but the Conservatives would have a decent chance of retaining second place even given their recent and continuing travails. But new lines and new constituencies are likely to be in place by that time. Just over half of this seat is scheduled to be in Clackmannanshire and Forth Valley. This will encompass less than the whole of Clackmannanshire, as most of its East ward with Dollar and the Muckharts is placed in a Dunfermline and East Ochils division. The seat has been drawn to wind sinuously south and east across the river Forth and the M9 motorway, barriers ancient and modern, to take in the lion’s share of three wards of Falkirk unitary authority. These will account for over 34,000 voters and cover the communities of Stenhousemuir and Larbert, Denny and Dunipace, reaching Carron Bridge at its south western extremity. The new seat curves round, but misses, Stirling and Bannockburn. All this previously accounted for 40% of the electorate of the present Falkirk seat.
It is true that there is a precedent for pairing Clackmannan and the eastern part of Stirlingshire: there was a Westminster seat of that name between 1918 and 1983, which also included towns like Denny with Alloa et al. Indeed it was an early adopter of favour for the SNP, returning George Reid in both 1974 elections, when the Nationalists secured only seven and 11 MPs in February and October. The ‘Falkirk’ territory added is similarly composed of small largely working class industrial towns like those in Clackmannanshire, and shares the predominant pattern of contest, with the SNP ahead and Conservative and Labour vying for second. In May 2022 the Nationalists led in Denny & Banknock with 39% first preferences, in Carse, Kinnair & Tryst (centred on Stenhousemuir) with 40% and in Bonnybridge & Larbert (34%). Overall the 2022 totals are very similar to the 39-23-23 split in Clackmannanshire at the same time. Therefore this aspect of the new seat is not ridiculous. The stadium of Stenhousemuir FC is actually called Ochilview.
However, what does make the Clackmannanshire & Forth Valley seat rather absurd is that there is a third element, not recognised in the name. Although 38.5% of Ochil & South Perthshire joins the new Perth & Loch Leven constituency, Clackmannanshire & Forth Valley is still to extend north across the Ochils to take in most of the Perth and Kinross ward of Strathallan, a huge expanse stretching to Auchterarder and Gleneagles. The connection – and connections – between this area and, say, Denny strain credibility. One might try to work out what par figure might be appropriate for a golf hole stretching from Gleneagles to the other end of the proposed seat. An alternative speculation would be this: right at the new south end, almost in Falkirk, is Carron - once the site of the great ironworks that developed and produced the great naval carronade (please note, not cannonade). As installed in HMS Victory, for example, this formidable weapon had a range of over 1,000 yards. Place one at Carron Bridge at one end of Clackmannanshire & Forth Valley and it may be able to reach one fortieth of the way to the other end between Auchterarder and Perth - as the crow flies. But that crow would have to leave this seat on the way and fly right over Bannockburn.
The 6,000 voters that have to remain from the ‘South Perthshire’ section are there to make sure the new seat fits the national electoral quota. However their preferred party, which according to the May 2022 election results appears very much to be the Conservatives, will be much less likely to be a contender than in the current pairing with Ochil alone – even without the current short term Tory weakness. In the new Clackmannanshire and Forth Valley opposition to the SNP looks as if it will be more divided, and thus less effective. They, at least, may well be happy with it.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 18.1% 226/650
Owner-occupied 67.1% 320/650
Private rented 10.2% 568/650
Social rented 20.8% 193/650
White 98.5% 49/650
Black 0.2% 526/650
Asian 0.9% 539/650
Managerial & professional 31.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 28.1%
Degree level 27.7% 252/650
No qualifications 24.6% 268/650
Students 6.5% 382/650
General Election 2019: Ochil and South Perthshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP John Nicolson 26,882 46.5 +11.2
Conservative Luke Graham 22,384 38.7 -2.8
Labour Lorna Robertson 4,961 8.6 -11.4
Liberal Democrats Iliyan Stefanov 3,204 5.5 +2.3
UKIP Stuart Martin 382 0.7 New
SNP Majority 4,498 7.8
2019 electorate 78,776
Turnout 57,813 73.4 +2.8
SNP gain from Conservative
Swing 7.0 C to SNP
To analyse the current constituency first, it is balanced between urban and rural sections. Although the word Ochil conjures up a bucolic image of the range of hills rising to the height of 2,365 feet at Ben Cleuch, with burns cutting through the glens of Dollar, Silver and Alva, in fact it is here a synonym for the bulk of Clackmannanshire. The political tone is given by the industrial past of its rather gritty small towns: Alloa (the largest, with over 14,000 inhabitants), Alva, Tillicoultry, Sauchie and Clackmannan itself. To understand the electoral tradition here it should be remembered that Clackmannanshire is adjacent to west Fife, and shares a (now defunct) coalfield.
brianfraser47.wixsite.com/walks/post/clackmannan-and-coal-mines
Alloa also has woollen yarn spinning, weaving, glassmaking, the brewing of beer and the distilling of malt. Tullibody was a coal mining and tanning town. In Alva there was textile manufacture and there still is brewing in the shape of Harviestoun. Tillicoultry had a colliery and was a centre of quarrying of whinstone ( technically quartz-dolerite). Yes, the Ochil hills can be seen from these communities, but they are very much part of the Central Scottish industrial belt and they shared its commitment to Labour, until the rise of Nationalism from the 1970s onwards.
Very different characteristics of history and character belongs to the northern, ‘South Perthshire’ section of the constituency; we may also include the rural parts of Clackmannanshire around the small market town of Dollar and the villages of Pool of Muckhart and Yetts o’Muckhart with this portion. Beyond the Ochils and into Perthshire we find Auchterarder: just off the A9 and best known perhaps as the nearest town to the Gleneagles luxury hotel and championship golf courses, and Crieff, still further north, in the Earn valley and on the A85. Now we are in the land of whisky production rather than beer, major centre of rural activities such as cattle markets, and nowadays tourism and leisure as significant sources of employment. The seat also include the small historic county of Kinross, including the Loch Leven known to historic drama.
The two elements in Ochil and South Perthshire have contributed to the constituency’s unusual marginality. In its first contest in 2005 it was win by Gordon Banks (not that one) for Labour, but his winning share of 31.4% was the lowest in any of the 650 general election contests that year. This was because the SNP (30%) and also the Conservatives (21,5%) were credible challengers. In 2010 Banks won more easily, but in 2015he joined the long, indeed almost complete, casualty list of Labour incumbents north of the border as the SNP’s Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh became their, and Scotland’s, first Muslim female MP. Only two years later though a third different party became the victor in Ochil & South Perthshire as the Conservative Luke Graham came from third place to first. He in turn also lasted only two years. In December 2019 John Nicolson, formerly SNP member for East Dunbartonshire, returned to Westminster with a majority of almost 4,500.
Labour were reduced to a extremely poor showing of 8.6% in 2019, a dismal year for them in most regions but certainly in Scotland, but a consideration of the most recent local election results suggests that they may have suffered from ‘unionist’ tactical voting. In the Clackmannanshire council election results of May 2022, Labour finished second to the SNP candidates if the first references are tallied in South (Alloa), West (Tullibody) and Central (Sauchie) wards, achieving nearly 35% in the last named. The Tories were second in North (Alva, Tillicoultry and the hills) and first in East (Clackmannan and Dollar). Overall across Clackmannashire the SNP took 39.5%, Labour 23,8% and the Conservatives 23.2%.
Within the Perth ad Kinross council, however, Labour were, almost literally, nowhere. They did not even contest four of the five wards within Ochil & South Perthshire: Strathearn, Strathtay, Strathallan and Almond & Earn. In Kinross-shire they did put up a lone candidate who managed just 6.6% of the first preferences. In this section the battle is clearly between SNP and Conservative. The Tories won decisively in Almond & Earn, which includes Abernethy and Bridge of Earn and almost touches in the outskirts of Perth itself, attaining the heights of 48% n 2022 to the Nationalists’ 34%. They were also first in Strathallan (Auchterarder) with nearly 47%. In Kinrossshire they were again top, but with a much smaller share, just under 30%, due to a rare strong showing by the Liberal Democrats (21%) splitting opposition to the SNP (25.5%). Finally the Nationalisto did themselves come out on top narrowly in Strathtay (which is only partly included in the Ochil seat) and more convincingly in the Strathearn ward based on Crieff.
Therefore if Ochil & South Perthshire were still to exist at the time of the next General Election, Labour might well advance somewhat but the Conservatives would have a decent chance of retaining second place even given their recent and continuing travails. But new lines and new constituencies are likely to be in place by that time. Just over half of this seat is scheduled to be in Clackmannanshire and Forth Valley. This will encompass less than the whole of Clackmannanshire, as most of its East ward with Dollar and the Muckharts is placed in a Dunfermline and East Ochils division. The seat has been drawn to wind sinuously south and east across the river Forth and the M9 motorway, barriers ancient and modern, to take in the lion’s share of three wards of Falkirk unitary authority. These will account for over 34,000 voters and cover the communities of Stenhousemuir and Larbert, Denny and Dunipace, reaching Carron Bridge at its south western extremity. The new seat curves round, but misses, Stirling and Bannockburn. All this previously accounted for 40% of the electorate of the present Falkirk seat.
It is true that there is a precedent for pairing Clackmannan and the eastern part of Stirlingshire: there was a Westminster seat of that name between 1918 and 1983, which also included towns like Denny with Alloa et al. Indeed it was an early adopter of favour for the SNP, returning George Reid in both 1974 elections, when the Nationalists secured only seven and 11 MPs in February and October. The ‘Falkirk’ territory added is similarly composed of small largely working class industrial towns like those in Clackmannanshire, and shares the predominant pattern of contest, with the SNP ahead and Conservative and Labour vying for second. In May 2022 the Nationalists led in Denny & Banknock with 39% first preferences, in Carse, Kinnair & Tryst (centred on Stenhousemuir) with 40% and in Bonnybridge & Larbert (34%). Overall the 2022 totals are very similar to the 39-23-23 split in Clackmannanshire at the same time. Therefore this aspect of the new seat is not ridiculous. The stadium of Stenhousemuir FC is actually called Ochilview.
However, what does make the Clackmannanshire & Forth Valley seat rather absurd is that there is a third element, not recognised in the name. Although 38.5% of Ochil & South Perthshire joins the new Perth & Loch Leven constituency, Clackmannanshire & Forth Valley is still to extend north across the Ochils to take in most of the Perth and Kinross ward of Strathallan, a huge expanse stretching to Auchterarder and Gleneagles. The connection – and connections – between this area and, say, Denny strain credibility. One might try to work out what par figure might be appropriate for a golf hole stretching from Gleneagles to the other end of the proposed seat. An alternative speculation would be this: right at the new south end, almost in Falkirk, is Carron - once the site of the great ironworks that developed and produced the great naval carronade (please note, not cannonade). As installed in HMS Victory, for example, this formidable weapon had a range of over 1,000 yards. Place one at Carron Bridge at one end of Clackmannanshire & Forth Valley and it may be able to reach one fortieth of the way to the other end between Auchterarder and Perth - as the crow flies. But that crow would have to leave this seat on the way and fly right over Bannockburn.
The 6,000 voters that have to remain from the ‘South Perthshire’ section are there to make sure the new seat fits the national electoral quota. However their preferred party, which according to the May 2022 election results appears very much to be the Conservatives, will be much less likely to be a contender than in the current pairing with Ochil alone – even without the current short term Tory weakness. In the new Clackmannanshire and Forth Valley opposition to the SNP looks as if it will be more divided, and thus less effective. They, at least, may well be happy with it.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 18.1% 226/650
Owner-occupied 67.1% 320/650
Private rented 10.2% 568/650
Social rented 20.8% 193/650
White 98.5% 49/650
Black 0.2% 526/650
Asian 0.9% 539/650
Managerial & professional 31.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 28.1%
Degree level 27.7% 252/650
No qualifications 24.6% 268/650
Students 6.5% 382/650
General Election 2019: Ochil and South Perthshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP John Nicolson 26,882 46.5 +11.2
Conservative Luke Graham 22,384 38.7 -2.8
Labour Lorna Robertson 4,961 8.6 -11.4
Liberal Democrats Iliyan Stefanov 3,204 5.5 +2.3
UKIP Stuart Martin 382 0.7 New
SNP Majority 4,498 7.8
2019 electorate 78,776
Turnout 57,813 73.4 +2.8
SNP gain from Conservative
Swing 7.0 C to SNP
