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Post by rockefeller on Dec 6, 2022 10:00:05 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 6, 2022 11:39:40 GMT
I think it was generally agreed that Trump had a big advantage in this scenario.
(something to do with the GOP "controlling" more states?)
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 6, 2022 12:37:33 GMT
The Dems controlled the house?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 6, 2022 12:42:54 GMT
The Dems controlled the house? Irrelevant. Dozens of congressional seats in California and New York count for no more than the At Large Dakota seats |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 6, 2022 12:43:30 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,693 
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Post by iain on Dec 6, 2022 13:26:23 GMT
In terms of current congressional delegations, we're at:
Republican - 26
Democrat - 22
Split - 2
And there are far more Republican pickup opportunities. They will definitely take North Carolina, which is currently split, if they gerrymander as they are currently expected to.
This would need the Democrats to take / split 2 delegations to deny Republicans a majority, or take 4 themselves to win a majority.
They could probably take Arizona from the Republicans, but after that it already looks hard. There is a possibility they could split Montana, Wisconsin or Iowa (and an outside chance they could pick up Iowa themselves) which would deny a Republican majority. To get to a Democrat majority they'd need to take Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina and probably Minnesota (the other split delegation), but in this scenario it is very difficult to imagine them not winning an electoral college majority. If North Carolina does redistrict then I'm not sure there is a plausible 4th pickup, even if Dems are doing very, very well - probably Ohio would be next, but they may redistrict too, and many of the competitive districts are trending Republican. Maybe then you'd be left with somewhere like Nebraska?
Though actually, reading through, it appears it is the 2022-24 congress who would elect the President. So Republicans would get it, barring a special election (which might have to be in Montana's first district to have a chance at changing things). The Senate would have the chance to elect the VP though, and would presumably pick the Democrat.
If the House did deadlock then I believe the Senate's choice of VP would be elevated to the vacant Presidency.
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Post by Wisconsin on Dec 6, 2022 14:31:01 GMT
If the House did deadlock then I believe the Senate's choice of VP would be elevated to the vacant Presidency. But only as Acting President, to be usurped if and when the House eventually elects a President. |
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