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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 25, 2022 15:24:35 GMT
2023 BOUNDARY REVIEW – UNCHANGED CONSTITUENCIES
Research by Pete Whitehead
Additional assistance: John Chanin, YL, Islington
After revised recommendations
This list will be adjusted if there are any changes in the final report.
South West
Forest of Dean
North Devon
Greater London
Hayes and Harlington
Islington North
Tooting
Walthamstow
South East
Crawley
Gillingham & Rainham
Gosport
Gravesham
Havant
Hove
New Forest East
New Forest West
Portsmouth North
Portsmouth South
Southampton Itchen
Southampton Test
Worthing East & Shoreham
East
Epping Forest
Great Yarmouth
Ipswich
NE Herts
Stevenage
East Midlands
Chesterfield
Derby North
Derby South
Erewash
High Peak
Lincoln
South Holland & The Deepings
West Midlands
Bromsgrove
Burton
Cannock Chase
Newcastle under Lyme
North Warwickshire
Nuneaton
Sutton Coldfield
Worcester
Worcestershire West
Wyre Forest
North West
Altrincham & Sale West
Cheadle
Hyndburn
Macclesfield
Oldham East & Saddleworth
Oldham West & Royton
St Helens North
Stalybridge & Hyde
Stretford & Urmston
West Lancashire, ,
Wigan
Wythenshawe & Sale East
Yorkshire & Humberside
Bradford West
Penistone & Stocksbridge
Scarborough & Whitby
(there looks to be no meaningful change between Keighley and Shipley but there is a small shange in the boundary)
North East
Hartlepool
Sunderland Central
Wales
Ynys Mon
Scotland
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
Central Ayrshire
East Renfrewshire
Edinburgh SW
Kilmarnock & Loudoun
Midlothian
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
North Ayrshire and Arran
Orkney & Shetland
Stirling
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
Northern Ireland
None
All corrections/additions welcome.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,456
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Nov 25, 2022 15:43:33 GMT
2023 BOUNDARY REVIEW – UNCHANGED CONSTITUENCIESResearch by Pete Whitehead Additional assistance: John Chanin After revised recommendationsThis list will be adjusted if there are any changes in the final report. South WestForest of Dean North Devon Greater LondonHayes and Harlington Islington North Walthamstow South East Crawley Gosport Gravesham Havant Hove New Forest East New Forest West Portsmouth North Portsmouth South Southampton Itchen Southampton Test Worthing East & Shoreham
East Midlands Chesterfield Derby North Derby South High Peak Lincoln South Holland & The Deepings West MidlandsBromsgrove Burton Cannock Chase Newcastle under Lyme North Warwickshire Nuneaton Sutton Coldfield Worcester Worcestershire West Wyre Forest North WestAltrincham & Sale West Cheadle Hyndburn Macclesfield Oldham East & Saddleworth Oldham West & Royton St Helens North Stalybridge & Hyde Stretford & Urmston West Lancashire, , Wigan Wythenshawe & Sale East Yorkshire & HumbersideBradford West Penistone & Stocksbridge Scarborough & Whitby (there looks to be no meaningful change between Keighley and Shipley but there is a small shange in the boundary) North EastHartlepool Sunderland Central WalesYnys Mon ScotlandAyr, Carrick & Cumnock Central Ayrshire Edinburgh SW Kilmarnock & Loudoun Midlothian Na h-Eileanan an Iar North Ayrshire and Arran Orkney & Shetland Stirling Northern Ireland None All corrections/additions welcome. I make that 60 so far, don't know how many were left unchanged for the review first used in the 1983 GE? |
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Post by islington on Nov 25, 2022 16:05:16 GMT
Finchley & Golders Green apart from a couple of minuscule ward realignments.
Ealing N subject to the same caveat.
If you're going to be strict about not allowing ward realignments then you need to remove Hayes & Harlington from the list.
Torbay.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Nov 25, 2022 16:06:29 GMT
You've missed Pete Whitehead's Eastern list: Stevenage, NE Herts, Epping Forest, Ipswich and Great Yarmouth. However, the BCE's mapping suggests there is a small area (close to the tripoint of the two constituencies with Hitchin) transferred from NE Herts to Stevenage. I think it reflects this local government boundary re-alignment. I'm not sure whether it should count, as the area appears from mapping to contain no buildings, but there is actually a very small area (on the southern boundary of East Ecclesfield ward) transferred from Penistone & Stocksbridge to Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough. So perhaps P & S should have an asterisk or something. Electoral Calculus lists Gillingham & Rainham as unchanged, and the BCE's mapping seems to confirm this. Leeds North East is in the same category as Shipley and Keighley (& Ilkley). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 25, 2022 16:13:58 GMT
Finchley & Golders Green apart from a couple of minuscule ward realignments. Ealing N subject to the same caveat. If you're going to be strict about not allowing ward realignments then you need to remove Hayes & Harlington from the list. Torbay.
Theya re not minuscule. If we were counting seats with that magnitude of change there would be many others (eg Brentwood & Ongar sees probably a smaller change in terms of the number of electors) |
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Post by islington on Nov 25, 2022 16:20:09 GMT
Finchley & Golders Green apart from a couple of minuscule ward realignments. Ealing N subject to the same caveat. If you're going to be strict about not allowing ward realignments then you need to remove Hayes & Harlington from the list. Torbay.
Theya re not minuscule. If we were counting seats with that magnitude of change there would be many others (eg Brentwood & Ongar sees probably a smaller change in terms of the number of electors) OK, it's your list so it's your definition.
What about Erewash?
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Post by kevinlarkin on Nov 25, 2022 16:23:59 GMT
Tooting
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 25, 2022 16:25:23 GMT
Theya re not minuscule. If we were counting seats with that magnitude of change there would be many others (eg Brentwood & Ongar sees probably a smaller change in terms of the number of electors) OK, it's your list so it's your definition.
What about Erewash?
I missed Erewash. It isn't really 'my' definition. Either a seat is unchanged or it isn't. In as much as there is any grey area it is such as in the seat which kicked the discussion off - Hayes & Harlington where the boundary changes really are minuscule and might only involve the transfer of one or two properties and hardly any voters. That certainly doesn't apply in Finchley & Golders Green where it looks like something like 300 voters are moving in or out. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 25, 2022 16:25:32 GMT
I think you can usefully distinguish between unchanged and unchanged except for ward re-alignment but it's probably worth recording both.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 25, 2022 16:28:59 GMT
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Nov 25, 2022 16:44:40 GMT
Here is a list of all those described as "Unchanged" by Electoral Calculus. Note that it includes some which actually have very minor changes (those I know about marked by asterisks) and it does not include constituencies where the name has been changed.
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
Central Ayrshire
North Ayrshire & Arran
Kilmarnock & Loudoun
Stirling
Edinburgh South West
Midlothian
East Renfrewshire
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
Orkney & Shetland
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
Sunderland Central
Hartlepool
Altrincham & Sale West
Stretford & Urmston
Wythenshawe & Sale East
Macclesfield
Cheadle
Oldham East & Saddleworth
Oldham West & Royton
Stalybridge & Hyde
Hyndburn
West Lancashire
Bootle
St Helen's North
Wigan
Scarborough & Whitby
Penistone & Stocksbridge*
Bradford West
Leeds North East*
Shipley*
Ynys Môn
Sutton Coldfield
Coventry North West
Bromsgrove
Worcester
West Worcestershire
Wyre Forest
Burton
Cannock Chase
Nuneaton
Chesterfield
Derby North
Derby South
Erewash
High Peak
Lincoln
South Holland & The Deepings
Epping Forest
North East Hertfordshire*
Stevenage*
Great Yarmouth
Ipswich
North Devon
Forest of Dean
Hayes & Harlington*
Islington North
Walthamstow
Tooting
Gosport
Havant
New Forest East
New Forest West
Portsmouth North
Portsmouth South
Southampton Itchen
Southampton Test
Gillingham & Rainham
Gravesham
Tunbridge Wells
Spelthorne
Crawley
East Worthing & Shoreham
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Post by islington on Nov 25, 2022 16:46:00 GMT
Coventry NW.
And in the 'tiny change' category I'd add Bournemouth E, SE Cornwall, Rugby.
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Post by lackeroftalent on Nov 25, 2022 17:26:58 GMT
Tiny change - Amber Valley
Gains about eighty voters in Kilburn, Denby & Holbrook ward who had found themselves in Mid Derbyshire.
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 25, 2022 17:41:33 GMT
I think you can usefully distinguish between unchanged and unchanged except for ward re-alignment but it's probably worth recording both. Ward realignment can mean movement of thousands of voters in urban seats. However a secondary list of seats with less than 1000 voters moving (virtually unchanged) would be useful. I’d do it myself, but I’ve still got loads of profiles to update with boundary info first. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Nov 25, 2022 18:50:28 GMT
The following list is also based on Electoral Calculus's data, and lists constituencies which contain at least 98% of their main predecessor and the sum of the percentages coming from other seats is at most 2%. Names are those for the new seats where they have changed; I believe there are two on this list (Bedworth & North Warwickshire and Hove & Portslade) where the name is the only change.
Not all of these are just "re-alignment to new ward boundaries"; e.g. the change to the two Bradford constituencies on the list is that a ward has been split, with a single polling district being included in one rather than the other. And some constituencies have "re-alignment to new ward boundaries" which goes above the threshold used here, e.g. Sheffield Hallam.
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
Warrington North
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough
Bradford East
Bradford South
Keighley & Ilkley
Hereford & South Herefordshire
North Herefordshire
Telford
Bedworth & North Warwickshire
Rugby
Amber Valley
Bolsover
North East Derbyshire
Rushcliffe
Bedford
Peterborough
Brentwood & Ongar
Welwyn Hatfield
North Norfolk
South East Cornwall
Newton Abbot
Torbay
Bournemouth East
Finchley & Golders Green
Ealing North
Romford
Carshalton & Wallington
Sutton & Cheam
Hove & Portslade
Dover & Deal
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 25, 2022 19:15:09 GMT
Sub-question: which local authorities have no changes to constituencies within their borders?
Trafford is one, with 2-and-a-bit constituencies unchanged. (No doubt there are some single-constituency ones among the islands and some smaller district authorities.)
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Post by swingometer on May 1, 2024 18:10:32 GMT
2023 BOUNDARY REVIEW – UNCHANGED CONSTITUENCIESResearch by Pete Whitehead Additional assistance: John Chanin After revised recommendationsThis list will be adjusted if there are any changes in the final report. South WestForest of Dean North Devon Greater LondonHayes and Harlington Islington North Walthamstow South East Crawley Gosport Gravesham Havant Hove New Forest East New Forest West Portsmouth North Portsmouth South Southampton Itchen Southampton Test Worthing East & Shoreham
East Midlands Chesterfield Derby North Derby South High Peak Lincoln South Holland & The Deepings West MidlandsBromsgrove Burton Cannock Chase Newcastle under Lyme North Warwickshire Nuneaton Sutton Coldfield Worcester Worcestershire West Wyre Forest North WestAltrincham & Sale West Cheadle Hyndburn Macclesfield Oldham East & Saddleworth Oldham West & Royton St Helens North Stalybridge & Hyde Stretford & Urmston West Lancashire, , Wigan Wythenshawe & Sale East Yorkshire & HumbersideBradford West Penistone & Stocksbridge Scarborough & Whitby (there looks to be no meaningful change between Keighley and Shipley but there is a small shange in the boundary) North EastHartlepool Sunderland Central WalesYnys Mon ScotlandAyr, Carrick & Cumnock Central Ayrshire Edinburgh SW Kilmarnock & Loudoun Midlothian Na h-Eileanan an Iar North Ayrshire and Arran Orkney & Shetland Stirling Northern Ireland None All corrections/additions welcome. I make that 60 so far, don't know how many were left unchanged for the review first used in the 1983 GE? 66, Dimbleby made the point very early in the election programme, an awful lot of them in London for some weird reason, three of the Hillingdon, two Hounslow and the four Barnet seats off the top of my head. |
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Post by greenhert on May 1, 2024 19:00:37 GMT
Ultimately, only 13% of the UK's 650 constituencies will remain unchanged for this year's general election-the lowest proportion since 1983 (and a large proportion of those changes were necessitated by changes to local government/county boundaries).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 1, 2024 22:11:41 GMT
I make that 60 so far, don't know how many were left unchanged for the review first used in the 1983 GE? 66, Dimbleby made the point very early in the election programme, an awful lot of them in London for some weird reason, three of the Hillingdon, two Hounslow and the four Barnet seats off the top of my head. It wasn't a 'weird' reason. London had been heavily redrawn in 1974 to bring the seats into line with the 'new' London borough boundaries. Against that the rest of the country had had the local government map torn up in the intervening period - there were new counties, all the Met boroughs and so on. You had seats like Goole that were split between four of the new counties. Those sort of anomalies in London had been ironed our in the previous review. |
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Post by johnloony on May 1, 2024 22:14:12 GMT
Ultimately, only 13% of the UK's 650 constituencies will remain unchanged for this year's general election-the lowest proportion since 1983 (and a large proportion of those changes were necessitated by changes to local government/county boundaries). In the circumstances of the boundary review (an unusually long time since the previous one, and an unusually strict set of new rules and criteria) I consider the use of the word “only” to be wildly inappropriate. I’m astonished it’s as many as 13%. |
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