Conservatives win Batley & Spen in 2021

[rockefeller]

What if the Conservatives gained Batley & Spen as well as Hartlepool last year?

[The Bishop]

I think it might have forced him out yes, even if not straight away.

On such small margins can the political tide turn.

[mattbewilson]

I don't think he would resign and tbf not should he. The polls show now how much can change. There are people I know who do want KS to resign who aren't on the 'hard left'. Would losing Batley push them into speaking publicly. I think there would be doubling down 'long Corbyn'.

I have noticed since labour have been doing well there's a lot less anti Corbyn, anti hard left sentiment. I think while we weren't doing well there was a lot blame game going on but now people would rather pretend Corbyn doesn't exist and focus on the strengths of labour's top team propelling them to victory.

I think it would spook a huge number of people. If we lost Bately as well where could we actually hold on. Sheffield SE is the otherside of the border with a similar size majority. It's said their majority was pretty all the votes in Darnall. If Muslim voters abandoned labour in Darnall as they did in Bately we'd be done. There was a big swing away from labour in Darnall that year as well.

KS and colleagues would fear resigning would undo the work they'd done and the work they needed to do. At least KS would need to see the project through before stepping down

[edgbaston]

Nov 22, 2022 11:20:33 GMT mattbewilson said:

I don't think he would resign and tbf not should he. The polls show now how much can change. There are people I know who do want KS to resign who aren't on the 'hard left'. Would losing Batley push them into speaking publicly. I think there would be doubling down 'long Corbyn'.

I have noticed since labour have been doing well there's a lot less anti Corbyn, anti hard left sentiment. I think while we weren't doing well there was a lot blame game going on but now people would rather pretend Corbyn doesn't exist and focus on the strengths of labour's top team propelling them to victory.

I think it would spook a huge number of people. If we lost Bately as well where could we actually hold on. Sheffield SE is the otherside of the border with a similar size majority. It's said their majority was pretty all the votes in Darnall. If Muslim voters abandoned labour in Darnall as they did in Bately we'd be done. There was a big swing away from labour in Darnall that year as well.

KS and colleagues would fear resigning would undo the work they'd done and the work they needed to do. At least KS would need to see the project through before stepping down

Just to push back a little on Sheffield SE being lost, there was a *huge* shift away from Labour among Muslim voters in Batley proper, but there was also a large swing to Labour in the spen valley part of the seat among some usual conservatives who didn’t want George Galloway as their MP.. by far the weirdest by-election and winning coalition of Labour votes that we’ll see for quite some time. A win but still deeply concerning and I worry if we come into power nationally we could see even more dramatic shifts

[mattbewilson]

Nov 26, 2022 20:22:09 GMT edgbaston said:

Nov 22, 2022 11:20:33 GMT mattbewilson said:

I don't think he would resign and tbf not should he. The polls show now how much can change. There are people I know who do want KS to resign who aren't on the 'hard left'. Would losing Batley push them into speaking publicly. I think there would be doubling down 'long Corbyn'.

I have noticed since labour have been doing well there's a lot less anti Corbyn, anti hard left sentiment. I think while we weren't doing well there was a lot blame game going on but now people would rather pretend Corbyn doesn't exist and focus on the strengths of labour's top team propelling them to victory.

I think it would spook a huge number of people. If we lost Bately as well where could we actually hold on. Sheffield SE is the otherside of the border with a similar size majority. It's said their majority was pretty all the votes in Darnall. If Muslim voters abandoned labour in Darnall as they did in Bately we'd be done. There was a big swing away from labour in Darnall that year as well.

KS and colleagues would fear resigning would undo the work they'd done and the work they needed to do. At least KS would need to see the project through before stepping down

Just to push back a little on Sheffield SE being lost, there was a *huge* shift away from Labour among Muslim voters in Batley proper, but there was also a large swing to Labour in the spen valley part of the seat among some usual conservatives who didn’t want George Galloway as their MP.. by far the weirdest by-election and winning coalition of Labour votes that we’ll see for quite some time. A win but still deeply concerning and I worry if we come into power nationally we could see even more dramatic shifts

and had it not been for the work in those wards outside Batley we'd probably have lost. Much like Batley and Spen Sheffield SE has it's own more white socially conservative demographic in places like mosborough and Beighton. Labours new coalition would work better here. Who know if Labour's coalition failed to pay off in batley and Spen if it would work here

I did some canvassing in Clekheaton. Where I bought my first car actually. Even today we talk about it being the weirdest board we've ever run. Weird mix of rural remote village, bit of council housing from Manchester dumped in it and to top it off the M1 next to it. Follow this up with a massive council estate in a Wakefield postcode surrounded by posh housing. Plus West Yorkshire don't do poster boards. Everything is tied to lampposts. Wtf. The whole place was weird.

[edgbaston]

Nov 27, 2022 1:48:01 GMT mattbewilson said:

Nov 26, 2022 20:22:09 GMT edgbaston said:

Just to push back a little on Sheffield SE being lost, there was a *huge* shift away from Labour among Muslim voters in Batley proper, but there was also a large swing to Labour in the spen valley part of the seat among some usual conservatives who didn’t want George Galloway as their MP.. by far the weirdest by-election and winning coalition of Labour votes that we’ll see for quite some time. A win but still deeply concerning and I worry if we come into power nationally we could see even more dramatic shifts

and had it not been for the work in those wards outside Batley we'd probably have lost. Much like Batley and Spen Sheffield SE has its own more white socially conservative demographic in places like mosborough and Beighton. Labours new coalition would work better here. Who know if Labour's coalition failed to pay off in batley and Spen if it would work here

I did some canvassing in Clekheaton. Where I bought my first car actually. Even today we talk about it being the weirdest board we've ever run. Weird mix of rural remote village, bit of council housing from Manchester dumped in it and to top it off the M1 next to it. Follow this up with a massive council estate in a Wakefield postcode surrounded by posh housing. Plus West Yorkshire don't do poster boards. Everything is tied to lampposts. Wtf. The whole place was weird.

..and completely unsurprisingly given everything else, three Lib Dem Cllrs on the local authority

[The Bishop]

It was a very unusual by-election in several respects and trying to draw wider conclusions as to Labour's future around it is maybe foolhardy.

And it shouldn't be forgotten that Galloway can only stand in one constituency at a time.