Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307 
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Post by Terry Weldon on Dec 16, 2022 8:12:57 GMT
Isn't that 3 weeks running with 2 Lib Dem gains each time? Yes. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 16, 2022 8:13:02 GMT
Can't find them, but one of the result tweets says 694 votes cast. So it's going to be roughly Con 299, LDm 400 Think that should read Con 294? Or they've found 5 votes from nowhere? Yes of course, don't know what the hell I was doing there. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 16, 2022 10:30:07 GMT
Does anyone have any knowledge of middleenglander? His work on the weekly results and monthly summaries is being badly missed. I think his penultimate post suggested he had "important issues" to deal with- I'm hoping he's okay. Still logging in fairly regularly I think, agree that his summaries are very valuable. |
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Post by phil156 on Dec 16, 2022 11:17:03 GMT
Does anyone have any knowledge of middleenglander ? His work on the weekly results and monthly summaries is being badly missed. I think his penultimate post suggested he had "important issues" to deal with- I'm hoping he's okay. Still logging in fairly regularly I think, agree that his summaries are very valuable. I agree I always took note of the swings which I have no idea how to work out |
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listener
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,247
Member is Online
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Post by listener on Dec 16, 2022 11:27:21 GMT
Turnout was below 10% in Wigan (Ashton) and in Test Valley (Andover Romans) - 5.3% and 9.6% respectively.
The only other turnout below 10% in this municipal year (since 5 May) was Sefton (Linacre) on 24 November - 8.8%.
The remaining turnouts yesterday ranged from Amber Valley (Wingfield) - 22.9% to
Ipswich (Priory Heath) - 16.5%.
I have gone back to May 2019, but cannot find any other turnouts below 10%.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 16, 2022 11:32:39 GMT
Whilst the weather is obviously a major factor, it does also appear there were significant postal vote problems due to recent industrial action.
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Post by andrewp on Dec 16, 2022 11:32:48 GMT
Still logging in fairly regularly I think, agree that his summaries are very valuable. I agree I always took note of the swings which I have no idea how to work out For what they are worth, the swings were Amber Valley 17.8% swing Con to LD from May 2019 Ipswich. 5.2% swing Con to Lab from May 2022 Pendle. 3.5% swing Lab to Con from May 2022 Test Valley. 14.6% swing Con to LD from May 2019 Wigan 0.8% swing Con to Lab from May 2022 |
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listener
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,247
Member is Online
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Post by listener on Dec 16, 2022 11:40:12 GMT
As a temporary measure, pending the more detailed analysis of Middle Englander, here are the changes in vote share since the last election -
Changes since 2019
Amber Valley (Wingfield) - Lab down 7.2%, Con down 13.9%, Lib Dem up 21.4%, Green down 0.2%
South Kesteven (Toller) - Con down 8.6%, Lib Dem up 60.1%, Independent down 51.5%
Test Valley (Andover Romans) - Lab down 13.3%, Con up 3.8%, Lib Dem up 32.9%, The Andover Alliance down 23.4%
Changes since 2021
Ipswich (Priory Heath) - Lab up 14.2%, Con down 11.7%, Lib Dem up 6.4%, Green down 9.0%
Pendle (Barrowford and Pendleside) - Lab up 15.0%, Con up 1.0%, Lib Dem up to 0.9%, Independent down 16.9%
Changes since 2022
Wigan (Ashton) - Lab up 9.4%, Con up 8.0%, Lib Dem up 2.2%, Independent down 19.6%
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,814
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Post by iang on Dec 16, 2022 11:50:33 GMT
Isn't that 3 weeks running with 2 Lib Dem gains each time? Slightly better as two weeks ago, there was also a gain in the one by-election held on the Wednesday. So it's eight gains in the last four weeks, including yesterday, all from Cons or Independents, 1/3/2/2 week by week |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 16, 2022 12:44:53 GMT
The Wingfield result suggests that the LDs put some effort in there. They were second in Crich last time, so maybe a suggestion that they might be thinking about targetting the new ward in May?
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 16, 2022 13:34:37 GMT
Isn't that 3 weeks running with 2 Lib Dem gains each time? Slightly better as two weeks ago, there was also a gain in the one by-election held on the Wednesday. So it's eight gains in the last four weeks, including yesterday, all from Cons or Independents, 1/ 3/ 2/ 2 week by week So, a downward trend . . .  |
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Post by johnloony on Dec 16, 2022 13:36:30 GMT
I have gone back to May 2019, but cannot find any other turnouts below 10%. Lancaster, University & Scotforth Rural ward, 8th December 2016 had a turnout of 7.1% |
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carolus
Lib Dem
Posts: 5,743
Member is Online
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Post by carolus on Dec 16, 2022 13:59:31 GMT
I have gone back to May 2019, but cannot find any other turnouts below 10%. Lancaster, University & Scotforth Rural ward, 8th December 2016 had a turnout of 7.1% I'm beginning to see why the current vacancy in that ward may not have had a byelection called... |
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Post by phil156 on Dec 16, 2022 14:11:29 GMT
I agree I always took note of the swings which I have no idea how to work out For what they are worth, the swings were Amber Valley 17.8% swing Con to LD from May 2019 Ipswich. 5.2% swing Con to Lab from May 2022 Pendle. 3.5% swing Lab to Con from May 2022 Test Valley. 14.6% swing Con to LD from May 2019 Wigan 0.8% swing Con to Lab from May 2022 Thanking you Andrew some quite big swings yesterday |
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Post by Rutlander on Dec 16, 2022 14:15:49 GMT
The Wingfield result suggests that the LDs put some effort in there. They were second in Crich last time, so maybe a suggestion that they might be thinking about targetting the new ward in May? Presumably so. The LD candidate in both Crich and this by-election, Kate Smith, has been the parliamentary candidate in every general election bar 2010 since 2001. |
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Post by lackeroftalent on Dec 16, 2022 15:10:39 GMT
The Wingfield result suggests that the LDs put some effort in there. They were second in Crich last time, so maybe a suggestion that they might be thinking about targetting the new ward in May? Presumably so. The LD candidate in both Crich and this by-election, Kate Smith, has been the parliamentary candidate in every general election bar 2010 since 2001. I understand the conservatives did four rounds of leaflets. Unclear but some amount of work from the Lib Dems. We do assume this will be their target ward next year. Kate is a fixture of Crich Parish council and pretty much is the Lib Dems here. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 18, 2022 10:16:08 GMT
For what they are worth, the swings were Amber Valley 17.8% swing Con to LD from May 2019 Ipswich. 5.2% swing Con to Lab from May 2022 Pendle. 3.5% swing Lab to Con from May 2022 Test Valley. 14.6% swing Con to LD from May 2019 Wigan 0.8% swing Con to Lab from May 2022 Thanking you Andrew some quite big swings yesterday Usual pattern in recent weeks, Tories having one decent result (Pendle) and indifferent to poor elsewhere. |
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