Post by Robert Waller on Nov 18, 2022 21:18:54 GMT
Angus is a distinguished name in Scotland. Not just for people, but Angus has been known as a regional identifier since at least 937, when it was mentioned in the Chronicle of the Kings of Alba. Angus is a historic county and following the 1995 reforms a unitary authority. Since 1950 it has also appeared in constituency names, with compass points at various times of East, South and North & Mearns. Since 1997 there has been a Westminster division of just plain Angus. Yet, for the time being at least, due to proposed boundary changes confirmed in the revised proposals, its 2019 contest will be its last; and due to the removal of its largest town, Arbroath, most of its terrain will also be separated from what is one of the iconic locations of Scottish nationalism due to its 1320 Declaration of defiance against English subjugation.
Nevertheless, this area and its successor seats are likely to remain favourable to the Nationalist cause, though not without a competitive challenge on the part of the Conservative and Unionist party. Angus South had been an ‘early adopter’ of the SNP, electing Andrew Welsh for a term back in October 1974; he returned to win East Angus in 1987 and 1992, then the unified Angus seat in 1997. When Welsh moved to the newly established Holyrood Parliament in 2001 he was seamlessly replaced by Mike Weir, who won Angus for the SNP four more times before being defeated by Kirstene Hair of the Conservatives in their ‘slight hiccup’ (actually a 16% negative swing) of 2017. But Dave Doogan recovered the seat with a fairly comfortable 3,795 majority in December 2019. Though not as rock solid for Nationalism as the ‘big city’ in this sub-region, Dundee, it can be said that over many decades now the SNP has been the ‘natural party of government’ in the county of Angus.
That certainly applies to elections in the local authority. The majority of the electorate of the constituency is to be found in a group of towns familiar to all connoisseurs of the lower division of the Scottish Football league: Arbroath, Forfar, Montrose and Brechin – though the grandly named club of the last, Brechin City, lost their place in even the Second Division (actually the lowest of the four) in 2021.
The largest of the towns is Arbroath (population around 24,000 in 2022), with fittingly the currently highest ranked of those football teams, having been promoted to the Scottish Championship despite still having part-time players (though they haven’t beaten anyone 36-0 since 1885). Arbroath, known widely for its port and fishing industry (best known example, the haddock smokie) is large enough to contribute the majority of voters to two Angus council wards. In the most recent contests in May 2022 the SNP finished top in both on first preferences and ended with three of the seven councillors, a proportionate reward as they took 41.5% in Arbroath East & Lunan and 36.2% in Arbroath West, Letham & Friockheim. This will be an underestimation of their likely percentages in a general election due to the strength of Independent candidates in both wards (as indeed in all the Angus local elections); in fact an Independent finished second in the East ward, while the Conservatives were second in West with a very respectable 31%. Arbroath is also large enough to have a considerable range of housing types, from the solid granite ‘fishermen’s cottages’ in the centre to the inevitable respectable streets of bungalows to large social housing developments, particularly on the inland fringes of the town, from Great Michael Road in the north east to Donkey Park in the north west. Overall the East ward has over a third of its tenure in the social sector. Arbroath is as Nationalist as its history implies; the Scottish Parliament famously met here in the 14th century.
Much the same voting pattern applies in the other Angus towns. In Forfar, Montrose and Brechin the SNP took the most preferences in May 2022, with between 34% and 39% shares, usually with Independents in second place, though in Brechin (with Edzell) the Conservatives did well, runners up only two per cent behind the Nationalists. It may not be coincidental that the Brechin ward also has the lowest proportion of social rented housing of these mainly urban wards, the only one below 20%. In no case did Labour or the Liberal Democrats even reach 10%, just as in the December 2019 general election in Angus. There is clearly a Conservative base, which is linked to the 2014 independence referendum, when Angus voted 56.3% to remain in the United Kingdom and only 43.7% to leave, not far off the Scotland-wide average and very different indeed from Dundee, an enclave within the county, that returned the strongest ‘Yes’ vote anywhere. There also exists a culture less hostile to English traditions. For example there are cricket clubs (and strong ones, too) at Arbroath, Montrose and Forfar – where it is called Strathmore: the distinguished Forfarshire cricket club is actually in Broughty Ferry in the Dundee East seat.
As that name implies, Angus was known alternatively as Forfarshire until 1928, and Forfar, situated inland, is not only the second largest town in the constituency (population 16,000) but still the administrative centre of the county, as well as the acting as the market town of Strathmore. Montrose (12,000) is a coastal port and has a large Glaxo plant at its southern end near the mouth of the South Esk, as well as an industrial estate at its north end. Brechin (10,000) may not be widely recognized as a city despite the name of its football club, but the genteel ambience around the cathedral is not untypical of the town as a whole, which is decidedly less industrial than the others. The Angus seat does include one other ward, which is predominantly rural, Kirriemuir & Dean. This saw the highest Tory share in the county in 2022, over 38%, though yet again the SNP topped that with 42%. Overall, though, the demographic statistics of Angus may surprise some as they are decidedly less typified by elite indicators.
The percentage working in routine and semi-routine occupations is clearly higher than that in the professional and managerial sectors; in fact at the time of the most recent published census figures, the seat ranked 541st out of 650 for higher professional and managerial workers, and 112th for those in routine jobs. It is also only just outside the top 100 for those with no educational qualifications. It has exceptionally high numbers in lower supervisory and technical positions and those in mineral extractive industry (though as everywhere in Britain this is still a low percentage). As mentioned above it also has a lower than average proportion of owner occupiers. Its age profile is older than most and there are very few ethnic minority residents indeed.
Significant parts of the Angus council area are already excluded from this constituency. Dundee is not populous enough for two whole seats of its own, so Broughty Ferry, Monifieth and Carnoustie are included in Dundee East. In the forthcoming boundary changes the November 2022 revised recommendations have confirmed that Arbroath is to be added to this group. It is large and important enough to be recognized in the name: Dundee East and Arbroath. This removes nearly 37% of Angus’s electorate. What is more, the rest of the seat will no longer be identified by the name of Angus. The remaining 63% is to form the major part of a revived constituency of North Tayside – a seat name that previously existed between 1983 and 2005. It was initially Conservative but gained by the SNP in 1997 and retained thereafter. The remainder of the new North Tayside comes from Perth & North Perthshire, and comprises the small towns of Aberfeldy and Pitlochry (both heavily devoted to tourism), Blairgowrie and Coupar Angus, as well as a wide swathe of glens, mountains and lochs such as the giant Tay and the more remote Tummel and Rannoch. The acreage will be well over twice that of the present Angus division. The single Perth & Kinross ward of Highland is not far off as large as the whole of the current Angus seat. The four wards to be included in North Tayside are all SNP–Conservative contests. In May 2022 the Nationalists received the most first preferences in Highland, Strathmore (Blairgowrie/Rattray) and Strathtay (Coupar Angus/Alyth), the Tories in Blairgowrie & Glens.
The birthplace of J. M. Barrie, Kirriemuir, is in the geographical centre of the current Angus, though not of the new North Tayside. The SNP may display the confidence of Peter Pan that their dominance in this substantial part of Scotland may never end, and apart from the Tories’ remarkable (but solitary in recent times) victory in Angus in 2017 they have some reason. However one may wonder what would happen either if their dream of an independent state were achieved, or even if their government north of the border were to continue without achieving this end for yet further terms …
2011 Census
Age 65+ 19.8% 146/650
Owner-occupied 59.8% 479/650
Private rented 12.7% 410/650
Social rented 25.3% 103/650
White 98.9% 18/650
Black 0.2% 571/650
Asian 0.7% 598/650
Managerial & professional 26.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.2%
Lower supervisory and technical 10.1% 14/650
Employed in mining and quarrying 2.7% 7/650
Skilled trades occupations 17.0% 30/650
Degree level 21.0% 471/650
Level 1 qualifications 25.6% 12/650
No qualifications 29.8% 101/650
Students 6.3% 423/650
General Election 2019: Angus
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Dave Doogan 21,216 49.1 +10.5
Conservative Kirstene Hair 17,421 40.4 −4.8
Liberal Democrats Ben Lawrie 2,482 5.7 +2.4
Labour Monique Miller 2,051 4.8 −8.2
SNP Majority 3,795 8.8
2019 electorate 63,952
Turnout 43,170 67.5 +4.5
SNP gain from Conservative
Swing 7.7 C to SNP
Nevertheless, this area and its successor seats are likely to remain favourable to the Nationalist cause, though not without a competitive challenge on the part of the Conservative and Unionist party. Angus South had been an ‘early adopter’ of the SNP, electing Andrew Welsh for a term back in October 1974; he returned to win East Angus in 1987 and 1992, then the unified Angus seat in 1997. When Welsh moved to the newly established Holyrood Parliament in 2001 he was seamlessly replaced by Mike Weir, who won Angus for the SNP four more times before being defeated by Kirstene Hair of the Conservatives in their ‘slight hiccup’ (actually a 16% negative swing) of 2017. But Dave Doogan recovered the seat with a fairly comfortable 3,795 majority in December 2019. Though not as rock solid for Nationalism as the ‘big city’ in this sub-region, Dundee, it can be said that over many decades now the SNP has been the ‘natural party of government’ in the county of Angus.
That certainly applies to elections in the local authority. The majority of the electorate of the constituency is to be found in a group of towns familiar to all connoisseurs of the lower division of the Scottish Football league: Arbroath, Forfar, Montrose and Brechin – though the grandly named club of the last, Brechin City, lost their place in even the Second Division (actually the lowest of the four) in 2021.
The largest of the towns is Arbroath (population around 24,000 in 2022), with fittingly the currently highest ranked of those football teams, having been promoted to the Scottish Championship despite still having part-time players (though they haven’t beaten anyone 36-0 since 1885). Arbroath, known widely for its port and fishing industry (best known example, the haddock smokie) is large enough to contribute the majority of voters to two Angus council wards. In the most recent contests in May 2022 the SNP finished top in both on first preferences and ended with three of the seven councillors, a proportionate reward as they took 41.5% in Arbroath East & Lunan and 36.2% in Arbroath West, Letham & Friockheim. This will be an underestimation of their likely percentages in a general election due to the strength of Independent candidates in both wards (as indeed in all the Angus local elections); in fact an Independent finished second in the East ward, while the Conservatives were second in West with a very respectable 31%. Arbroath is also large enough to have a considerable range of housing types, from the solid granite ‘fishermen’s cottages’ in the centre to the inevitable respectable streets of bungalows to large social housing developments, particularly on the inland fringes of the town, from Great Michael Road in the north east to Donkey Park in the north west. Overall the East ward has over a third of its tenure in the social sector. Arbroath is as Nationalist as its history implies; the Scottish Parliament famously met here in the 14th century.
Much the same voting pattern applies in the other Angus towns. In Forfar, Montrose and Brechin the SNP took the most preferences in May 2022, with between 34% and 39% shares, usually with Independents in second place, though in Brechin (with Edzell) the Conservatives did well, runners up only two per cent behind the Nationalists. It may not be coincidental that the Brechin ward also has the lowest proportion of social rented housing of these mainly urban wards, the only one below 20%. In no case did Labour or the Liberal Democrats even reach 10%, just as in the December 2019 general election in Angus. There is clearly a Conservative base, which is linked to the 2014 independence referendum, when Angus voted 56.3% to remain in the United Kingdom and only 43.7% to leave, not far off the Scotland-wide average and very different indeed from Dundee, an enclave within the county, that returned the strongest ‘Yes’ vote anywhere. There also exists a culture less hostile to English traditions. For example there are cricket clubs (and strong ones, too) at Arbroath, Montrose and Forfar – where it is called Strathmore: the distinguished Forfarshire cricket club is actually in Broughty Ferry in the Dundee East seat.
As that name implies, Angus was known alternatively as Forfarshire until 1928, and Forfar, situated inland, is not only the second largest town in the constituency (population 16,000) but still the administrative centre of the county, as well as the acting as the market town of Strathmore. Montrose (12,000) is a coastal port and has a large Glaxo plant at its southern end near the mouth of the South Esk, as well as an industrial estate at its north end. Brechin (10,000) may not be widely recognized as a city despite the name of its football club, but the genteel ambience around the cathedral is not untypical of the town as a whole, which is decidedly less industrial than the others. The Angus seat does include one other ward, which is predominantly rural, Kirriemuir & Dean. This saw the highest Tory share in the county in 2022, over 38%, though yet again the SNP topped that with 42%. Overall, though, the demographic statistics of Angus may surprise some as they are decidedly less typified by elite indicators.
The percentage working in routine and semi-routine occupations is clearly higher than that in the professional and managerial sectors; in fact at the time of the most recent published census figures, the seat ranked 541st out of 650 for higher professional and managerial workers, and 112th for those in routine jobs. It is also only just outside the top 100 for those with no educational qualifications. It has exceptionally high numbers in lower supervisory and technical positions and those in mineral extractive industry (though as everywhere in Britain this is still a low percentage). As mentioned above it also has a lower than average proportion of owner occupiers. Its age profile is older than most and there are very few ethnic minority residents indeed.
Significant parts of the Angus council area are already excluded from this constituency. Dundee is not populous enough for two whole seats of its own, so Broughty Ferry, Monifieth and Carnoustie are included in Dundee East. In the forthcoming boundary changes the November 2022 revised recommendations have confirmed that Arbroath is to be added to this group. It is large and important enough to be recognized in the name: Dundee East and Arbroath. This removes nearly 37% of Angus’s electorate. What is more, the rest of the seat will no longer be identified by the name of Angus. The remaining 63% is to form the major part of a revived constituency of North Tayside – a seat name that previously existed between 1983 and 2005. It was initially Conservative but gained by the SNP in 1997 and retained thereafter. The remainder of the new North Tayside comes from Perth & North Perthshire, and comprises the small towns of Aberfeldy and Pitlochry (both heavily devoted to tourism), Blairgowrie and Coupar Angus, as well as a wide swathe of glens, mountains and lochs such as the giant Tay and the more remote Tummel and Rannoch. The acreage will be well over twice that of the present Angus division. The single Perth & Kinross ward of Highland is not far off as large as the whole of the current Angus seat. The four wards to be included in North Tayside are all SNP–Conservative contests. In May 2022 the Nationalists received the most first preferences in Highland, Strathmore (Blairgowrie/Rattray) and Strathtay (Coupar Angus/Alyth), the Tories in Blairgowrie & Glens.
The birthplace of J. M. Barrie, Kirriemuir, is in the geographical centre of the current Angus, though not of the new North Tayside. The SNP may display the confidence of Peter Pan that their dominance in this substantial part of Scotland may never end, and apart from the Tories’ remarkable (but solitary in recent times) victory in Angus in 2017 they have some reason. However one may wonder what would happen either if their dream of an independent state were achieved, or even if their government north of the border were to continue without achieving this end for yet further terms …
2011 Census
Age 65+ 19.8% 146/650
Owner-occupied 59.8% 479/650
Private rented 12.7% 410/650
Social rented 25.3% 103/650
White 98.9% 18/650
Black 0.2% 571/650
Asian 0.7% 598/650
Managerial & professional 26.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.2%
Lower supervisory and technical 10.1% 14/650
Employed in mining and quarrying 2.7% 7/650
Skilled trades occupations 17.0% 30/650
Degree level 21.0% 471/650
Level 1 qualifications 25.6% 12/650
No qualifications 29.8% 101/650
Students 6.3% 423/650
General Election 2019: Angus
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Dave Doogan 21,216 49.1 +10.5
Conservative Kirstene Hair 17,421 40.4 −4.8
Liberal Democrats Ben Lawrie 2,482 5.7 +2.4
Labour Monique Miller 2,051 4.8 −8.2
SNP Majority 3,795 8.8
2019 electorate 63,952
Turnout 43,170 67.5 +4.5
SNP gain from Conservative
Swing 7.7 C to SNP
