Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
Nov 15, 2022 20:00:36 GMT
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 15, 2022 20:00:36 GMT
Some might think that 38 letters is a little excessive for a constituency name. It’s a far cry from Bath, say, or Angus. However it would be hard to deny representation in the nomenclature to the largest community. Cumbernauld, the New Town scattered across windy hills some 15 miles north east of Glasgow, has a population of just over 50,000, which just about entitles it to be rated among the ten largest urban units in Scotland, although the growth that followed its designation in 1955 stopped some decades ago, and it may actually have lost numbers since the 2011 census. Perhaps its prime was around the time that Cumbernauld (specifically the eastern neighbourhood of Abronhill) was employed as the setting for Bill Forsyth’s wry and successful film, Gregory’s Girl, in 1980. Cumbernauld has featured in a constituency title from 1983, having previously been modestly located within East Dunbartonshire. It was because the electorate needed expanding that before the 2005 general election that a ward centred on part of Kirkintilloch was added, and thus the name lengthened; and the seat itself will again be expanded in the current review, though thankfully the name will not.
Despite its historic location in Dunbartonshire, Cumbernauld was placed under the aegis of North Lanarkshire in the Scottish local government reforms that were enacted in 1996. The present seat of Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East in effect covers the very northern tip of North Lanarkshire including a fair chunk of thinly populated upland territory. Curiously, Kilsyth was historically in Stirlingshire and Kirkintilloch is still in Dunbartonshire.
Cumbernauld accounts for about 41,000 of the present electorate of 66,000. It has long been a Scottish National Party stronghold. In the most recent North Lanarkshire elections in May 2022, for example, the SNP took an absolute majority of first preferences, 50.2%, in the most populous ward, North, which includes neighbourhoods such as Wardpark, Westerwood, Carrickstone, and Balloch (one of the last to be developed). Labour (27.7%) and the Conservatives (14.2%) trailed far behind. However, North is actually the least strong of the three wards for the SNP; it had nearly twice the proportion of professional and managerial workers that the other two wards reported in the 2011 Scottish census though even there it was not much above a quarter of the whole 16-64 population. In Cumbernauld South the SNP polled nearly 52% and in East they achieved a mighty 58.5% that actually elected three Nationalists to its four council seats. East includes Gregory’s Abronhill as well as Luggiebank, Lenziemill, Seafar and Kildrum. South’s neigbourhoods are Condorrat (rather older), Greenfaulds and Carbrain, and it also covers the station entrance and essentially, the ruthlessly planned and brutalistically accomplished town centre. The Broadwood stadium which hosted Clyde football club for 28 years until they departed to Hamiliton in 2022, is in the western part of North ward. Overall, the parts of Cumbernauld north of the bisecting M80 are in general somewhat the more advantaged parts.
www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2021-08/Abbreviated%20Cumbernauld%20Community%20Profile%20May%202020.pdf
One feature of the census figures that makes the seat distinctive is the remarkably high proportion who are owner occupiers with the aid of a mortgage or loan, rather than outright: a product of the sale of the former New Town properties.
Unlike Cumbernauld, Kilsyth (population 10,000) favours the Labour party. In May 2022 its ward - which also includes villages such as Queenzieburn and Banton and extensive hill country extending as far north as the south bank of the Carron Valley reservoir - gave Labour 52.4% first preferences to the SNP’s 37.4%. For all its attractive setting, Kilsyth has over 30% of its housing in the social rented sector and a plurality of its workforce in the semi and unskilled ‘DE’ categories. In no part of Kilsyth are as many of 15% of young people aged 17-21 participating in university studies:
www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2021-08/Abbreviated%20Kilsyth%20Community%20Profile%20May%202020.pdf
The final part of the constituency is the section around Kirkintilloch. This is a town with a population estimated at over 21,000 in 2022, which until 2005 was entirely placed in the marginal Strathkelvin & Bearsden seat, which had been won by both Conservative and Labour (and the majority of which was about to be gained by the youthful Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson). In May 2022 the Kirkintilloch East & North & Twechar ward was actually headed by none of these, as the SNP took 38% of the first preferences, but it was more widely competitive than all the others in its current seat, as Labour received 29%, the Liberal Democrats 19% and the Conservatives 12%. In the forthcoming boundary changes this section is to be augmented. The suggested addition to the ‘Cumbernauld etc’ seat is Lenzie & Kirkintilloch South, which currently comprises 20% of the electorate of East Dunbartonshire. This will be the most up-market part of the newly drawn constituency. Lenzie is a largely owner occupied and fairly desirable residential area, and the location of the BBC Radio 4 comedy Fags, Mags and Bags. In May 2022 in this ward the SNP got their lowest share of any of the wards so far discussed, a mere 33%, while Labour only just finished second with 21% ahead of the Conservatives 20% and LD 17%.
Overall, though, scarcely a dent is likely to be made in the SNP dominance in the Cumbernauld based seat, which had their 4th largest majority in December 2019, behind only Aberdeen North and the two Dundee divisions. We ought, however, to finish as started, with names. In the revised proposals of the Scottish Boundary Commission after the inquiry process, the name advanced for the new east is Kilsyth Hills and Cumbernauld. Though thankfully no longer the longest anywhere in the United Kingdom, it is still rather odd. Why is the community with the majority of the electors no longer placed first? Why does it sound as if the almost unpopulated hills have displaced the town of Kilsyth as worthy of mention, for all the bracing moorland attractions one can savour as one wends over them on the drovers route called Tak-Ma-Doon Road? And why has Kirkintilloch, by far the second largest town, having doubled its presence within the seat, disappeared from the name entirely? It seems we have exchanged the unconscionably long for the incomprehensible; but perhaps it is all just grist to the mill of carping amateur psephologists and nitpicking locals alike.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 15.1% 448/650
Owner-occupied 68.1% 279/650
Owned with a mortgage or loan 42.7% 10/650
Private rented 8.6% 621/650
Social rented 22.5% 158/650
White 97.9% 125/650
Black 0.2% 500/650
Asian 1.5% 406/650
Born in Scotland 92.6% 5/650
Christian 61.2% 11/59
Managerial & professional 27.0 %
Routine & Semi-routine 29.7%
Degree level 19.8% 518/650
Level 1 qualifications 26.2% 8/650
No qualifications 27.2% 162/650
Students 7.7% 242/650
2019 General Election: Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Stuart McDonald 24,158 52.8 +9.2
Labour James McPhilemy 11,182 24.5 -9.6
Conservative Roz McCall 7,380 16.1 -2.2
Liberal Democrats Susan Murray 2,966 6.6 +3.7
SNP Majority 12,976 28.4 +18.7
2019 electorate 66,079
Turnout 45,716 69.3 +3.4
SNP hold
Swing 9.3 Lab to SNP
Despite its historic location in Dunbartonshire, Cumbernauld was placed under the aegis of North Lanarkshire in the Scottish local government reforms that were enacted in 1996. The present seat of Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East in effect covers the very northern tip of North Lanarkshire including a fair chunk of thinly populated upland territory. Curiously, Kilsyth was historically in Stirlingshire and Kirkintilloch is still in Dunbartonshire.
Cumbernauld accounts for about 41,000 of the present electorate of 66,000. It has long been a Scottish National Party stronghold. In the most recent North Lanarkshire elections in May 2022, for example, the SNP took an absolute majority of first preferences, 50.2%, in the most populous ward, North, which includes neighbourhoods such as Wardpark, Westerwood, Carrickstone, and Balloch (one of the last to be developed). Labour (27.7%) and the Conservatives (14.2%) trailed far behind. However, North is actually the least strong of the three wards for the SNP; it had nearly twice the proportion of professional and managerial workers that the other two wards reported in the 2011 Scottish census though even there it was not much above a quarter of the whole 16-64 population. In Cumbernauld South the SNP polled nearly 52% and in East they achieved a mighty 58.5% that actually elected three Nationalists to its four council seats. East includes Gregory’s Abronhill as well as Luggiebank, Lenziemill, Seafar and Kildrum. South’s neigbourhoods are Condorrat (rather older), Greenfaulds and Carbrain, and it also covers the station entrance and essentially, the ruthlessly planned and brutalistically accomplished town centre. The Broadwood stadium which hosted Clyde football club for 28 years until they departed to Hamiliton in 2022, is in the western part of North ward. Overall, the parts of Cumbernauld north of the bisecting M80 are in general somewhat the more advantaged parts.
www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2021-08/Abbreviated%20Cumbernauld%20Community%20Profile%20May%202020.pdf
One feature of the census figures that makes the seat distinctive is the remarkably high proportion who are owner occupiers with the aid of a mortgage or loan, rather than outright: a product of the sale of the former New Town properties.
Unlike Cumbernauld, Kilsyth (population 10,000) favours the Labour party. In May 2022 its ward - which also includes villages such as Queenzieburn and Banton and extensive hill country extending as far north as the south bank of the Carron Valley reservoir - gave Labour 52.4% first preferences to the SNP’s 37.4%. For all its attractive setting, Kilsyth has over 30% of its housing in the social rented sector and a plurality of its workforce in the semi and unskilled ‘DE’ categories. In no part of Kilsyth are as many of 15% of young people aged 17-21 participating in university studies:
www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2021-08/Abbreviated%20Kilsyth%20Community%20Profile%20May%202020.pdf
The final part of the constituency is the section around Kirkintilloch. This is a town with a population estimated at over 21,000 in 2022, which until 2005 was entirely placed in the marginal Strathkelvin & Bearsden seat, which had been won by both Conservative and Labour (and the majority of which was about to be gained by the youthful Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson). In May 2022 the Kirkintilloch East & North & Twechar ward was actually headed by none of these, as the SNP took 38% of the first preferences, but it was more widely competitive than all the others in its current seat, as Labour received 29%, the Liberal Democrats 19% and the Conservatives 12%. In the forthcoming boundary changes this section is to be augmented. The suggested addition to the ‘Cumbernauld etc’ seat is Lenzie & Kirkintilloch South, which currently comprises 20% of the electorate of East Dunbartonshire. This will be the most up-market part of the newly drawn constituency. Lenzie is a largely owner occupied and fairly desirable residential area, and the location of the BBC Radio 4 comedy Fags, Mags and Bags. In May 2022 in this ward the SNP got their lowest share of any of the wards so far discussed, a mere 33%, while Labour only just finished second with 21% ahead of the Conservatives 20% and LD 17%.
Overall, though, scarcely a dent is likely to be made in the SNP dominance in the Cumbernauld based seat, which had their 4th largest majority in December 2019, behind only Aberdeen North and the two Dundee divisions. We ought, however, to finish as started, with names. In the revised proposals of the Scottish Boundary Commission after the inquiry process, the name advanced for the new east is Kilsyth Hills and Cumbernauld. Though thankfully no longer the longest anywhere in the United Kingdom, it is still rather odd. Why is the community with the majority of the electors no longer placed first? Why does it sound as if the almost unpopulated hills have displaced the town of Kilsyth as worthy of mention, for all the bracing moorland attractions one can savour as one wends over them on the drovers route called Tak-Ma-Doon Road? And why has Kirkintilloch, by far the second largest town, having doubled its presence within the seat, disappeared from the name entirely? It seems we have exchanged the unconscionably long for the incomprehensible; but perhaps it is all just grist to the mill of carping amateur psephologists and nitpicking locals alike.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 15.1% 448/650
Owner-occupied 68.1% 279/650
Owned with a mortgage or loan 42.7% 10/650
Private rented 8.6% 621/650
Social rented 22.5% 158/650
White 97.9% 125/650
Black 0.2% 500/650
Asian 1.5% 406/650
Born in Scotland 92.6% 5/650
Christian 61.2% 11/59
Managerial & professional 27.0 %
Routine & Semi-routine 29.7%
Degree level 19.8% 518/650
Level 1 qualifications 26.2% 8/650
No qualifications 27.2% 162/650
Students 7.7% 242/650
2019 General Election: Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Stuart McDonald 24,158 52.8 +9.2
Labour James McPhilemy 11,182 24.5 -9.6
Conservative Roz McCall 7,380 16.1 -2.2
Liberal Democrats Susan Murray 2,966 6.6 +3.7
SNP Majority 12,976 28.4 +18.7
2019 electorate 66,079
Turnout 45,716 69.3 +3.4
SNP hold
Swing 9.3 Lab to SNP
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