Gravesham

[Robert Waller]

The BBC obituary of Sir David Butler mentioned that among all his other achievements was this: “the 1970 election saw another innovation - the BBC's first exit poll. David Butler identified Gravesend in Kent as the most representative constituency in Britain - and a team of pollsters was dispatched. Against all expectations, Gravesend forecast a big swing to the Conservatives. Harold Wilson ventured the opinion that it could still be "very close" but Butler's rejoinder was withering. ‘I hate to disagree with a fellow member of the Royal Statistical Society, especially as he's still prime minister,’ he said, ‘but I don't think there can be any doubt about the outcome.’ Harold Wilson lost both the argument and the election.”

There were good reasons why the pioneering psephologist made his judgment about Gravesend. It has been a ‘bellwether’ (originally, the sheep that leads the herd) seat that had gone with the winning party in each general election since 1955, and it continued to do so until 2005, though its name was altered to reflect that of its local authority in 1983: thus it changed hands in 1964, 1970, February 1974, 1979 and 1997. There are other reasons why it is a useful constituency to keep tabs on. There have been no boundary changes here since 1983, and indeed none are proposed in the ‘2023’ review. It remains coterminous with the Borough of Gravesham

However, Sir David probably would not recommend Gravesham as politically typical now. The deviation started in 2005. One of the marks and key components of Tony Blair’s pair of landslide victories in 1997 and 2001 had been the ability to win seats in counties usually unfavourable to the Labour party, and Kent was perhaps the leading example: seven marginal seats had been gained in the county, yet the only one to fall to the Tories when Blair sought a third term was Gravesham. This broke the seat’s tradition, as the Prime Minister did not lose office. Thereafter Gravesham has continued to deviate from the national norm. In December 2019 the Conservatives won by a margin of 15,581, or 32.8% of the votes cast. This compares with a nationwide lead of 11.5%. This means that Gravesham is actually the 216th most vulnerable Conservative seat, or to put it another way, their 149th safest – far from the midpoint of the constituency spectrum.

One reason for this migration is clear. Because the Westminster constituency lines are the same as those of the borough, we know that it voted in the 2016 referendum without the usual need for estimation. 65.4% opted for Leave, 34.6% for Remain. Not entirely uncoincidentally, this deviates from the national average by a margin fairly close to that it displayed in the 2019 general election. Gravesham’s census statistics do not all look ‘average’ either. The age structure and housing tenure figures are not dramatically skewed. However the seat is definitely on the more working class side of the median, with a particularly high proportion in construction (the 6th most of any of the 650 constituencies), and, even more clearly, educational qualifications are lower. The percentage of ethnic minorities is higher than the national average, but not so much more than that for the South East – unusually, the largest group here is of the Sikh faith.

Nevertheless, it would seem that the main driver of the decline of Labour from competitiveness in this division is a combination of attitudes towards Europe and being situated in the sub-region of Kent, rather than specifically ‘Gravesham factors’. Four of the other Labour seats of the Blair era are even safer than it is for the Tories after 2019, the exceptions being Dover and Thanet South. Ironically, one Kent seat that Blair’s party never won, Canterbury, was gained in 2017 and held in 2019. But Canterbury voted nearly 55% Remain, had 24% students in 2011, and a very different class and education profile from the previous wave of New Labour gains.

Labour can still win council wards within Gravesham. In the most recent elections, in May 2019, Labour won (Gravesend) Central, Coldharbour, Northfleet North, Northfleet South, Pelham, Riverside, Westcourt and two of the three in Singlewell and one of the two in Whitehill. This follows a long standing pattern whereby Labour does well in the parts of the seat on and near the river Thames. Coldharbour, Singlewell and Westcourt are more inland Gravesend ‘council estate’ wards. Pelham, which covers the western part of Gravesend town centre then runs south past the cricket ground, has the highest ethnic minority population (a quarter Asian and 21% Sikh).

On the other hand it is also true that the more rural southern section of Gravesham, with its villages set in serrated hills rising towards the North Downs, such as Meopham and Istead Rise, Shorne, Cobham & Luddesdown, are strongly Conservative; these are the places that used to tip the balance in even years nationally. A good recent example is to be found in the Kent county council election of May 2021. The whole of Gravesham is divided into just three very large county electoral divisions. The Conservatives were not far ahead in Gravesend East (by 49% to 38% for Labour, an electorate of no less than 31,140). In Gravesend West and Northfleet one councillor was elected from each party, with the Conservatives between them taking 42.2% to Labour’s 40.5% (30,093 electors). But in Gravesham Rural the Tories won by over 50 points, 67% to 15%. Even though this division ‘only’ has 15,500 voters, it is easy to see why it can be so influential.

The naming of the county electoral divisions seems to suggest that Gravesham refers to the whole borough, Gravesend to the main town. In fact Gravesham is an older name for the town, it appeared as such in Domesday Book. The notion that it was changed to Gravesend because this is where the line of graves caused by the Black Death ended is probably an incorrect rationalization. The contrast between the gritty, industrial riverfront of Northfleet (with its paper mills and former cable works) and central Gravesend (maritime, Port of London, Pocahontas), then progressively more attractive suburban and rural sections, still has validity. It is just that it has not added up to overall balanced marginality as the 21st century has developed. The Butler swing(ometer) has veered rightwards. Labour can now win an election without taking it. Yet one has the feeling that in circumstances when the European issue is no longer dominant Gravesham may have the inclination to swing back towards the centre by a more than average degree; and may once again be the sort of seat that so drew it to the attention of the maestro.


2011 Census

Age 65+ 16.0% 381/650
Owner-occupied 64.6% 396/650
Private rented 16.1% 226/650
Social rented 17.3% 285 /650
White 82.8% 514 /650
Black 2.8% 146/650
Asian 10.4% 115/650
Sikh 7.6% 11/650
Managerial & professional 26.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 29.0%
Employed in construction 11.9% 6/650
Degree level 20.0% 511/650
No qualifications 24.4% 277/650
Students 6.8% 319/650

2021 Census

Owner occupied 63.3% 344/573
Private rented 19.3% 214/573
Social rented 17.4% 205/573
White 76.6%
Black 6.5%
Asian 11.2%
Managerial & professional 29.1% 366/573
Routine & Semi-routine 26.1% 209/573
Degree level 26.7% 350/573
No qualifications 20.3% 181/573






2019 General Election: Gravesham

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Adam Holloway 29,580 62.2 +6.6
Labour Lauren Sullivan 13,999 29.4 -7.1
Liberal Democrats Ukonu Obasi 2,584 5.4 +2.9
Green Marna Gilligan 1,397 2.9 +1.4

C Majority 15,581 32.8 +13.7

2019 electorate 73,234

Turnout 47,560 64.9 -2.3

Conservative hold

Swing 6.8 Lab to C

[Deleted]

I would expect above average swings to Labour in the string of Kent seats they held under Blair if that party is on its way back to power, and in a very good election they may regain some, but I would guess if there were a re-run of 2005 the Tories would do comparatively better in this part of the world, and in exchange Labour would do better in London.
Re-reading Robert’s 2005 Almanac it is striking that it says London was the best region for the Conservatives in terms of swing. Now that is compared to the awful 2001 election but even so, just in the two decades since that election things have altered pretty dramatically in certain parts of the country - and not just temporarily because of Brexit.

[batman]

there were indeed some quite large swings in some London seats - e.g. Putney, Battersea (although it was held), Enfield Southgate - and not that many where Labour held its ground from 2001, at least not in potentially marginal seats.

[bjornhattan]

Nov 17, 2022 10:40:02 GMT @johnyorks said:

I would expect above average swings to Labour in the string of Kent seats they held under Blair if that party is on its way back to power, and in a very good election they may regain some, but I would guess if there were a re-run of 2005 the Tories would do comparatively better in this part of the world, and in exchange Labour would do better in London.
Re-reading Robert’s 2005 Almanac it is striking that it says London was the best region for the Conservatives in terms of swing. Now that is compared to the awful 2001 election but even so, just in the two decades since that election things have altered pretty dramatically in certain parts of the country - and not just temporarily because of Brexit.

I think Dartford is probably the seat to watch - especially given boundary changes make the constituency remove quite a lot of its rural southern fringe. During the last decade, Dartford saw the biggest population increase in the UK, and the new estates appear to be attracting a lot of people priced out of London. There is a significant foreign born population in some of these neighbourhoods too - as high as 40% in Temple Hill - and the town as a whole is becoming more diverse which may help Labour. Gravesham has seen a similar increase in diversity but overall population growth is much less and it appears to be a less transient community; I think the Conservatives are more likely to hold on here.

I'm less convinced Labour will make gains further east. Chatham and Aylesford was the best Labour seat around there in the Blair years but now the Conservatives win two thirds of the vote there (perhaps helped by Tracey Crouch who comes across as very affable). Sittingbourne and Sheppey is even safer for the Conservatives; the other two Medway seats which have majorities similar to Dartford or Gravesham have seen much more modest population increases and remain pretty homogeneous.

[nodealbrexiteer]

link.springer.com/content/pdf/bbm:978-1-349-01095-0/1.pdf

see the bottom of p417 for a brief note on the Gravesend exit poll, Dr Clive Payne who helped select the seat thought the BBC rather underplayed the poll in their coverage