Conservatives win a majority in 2010

[rockefeller]

How are things different? What happens to the Lib Dems? Does Miliband still lose in 2015?

[nodealbrexiteer]

Lib Dems have less seats than they got probably Labour too, Miliband still loses in 2015

[michaelarden]

Brexit referendum in 2012 and assuming the same outcome a YES vote in indyref in 2014.

[iain]

I doubt that there would be an Independence Referendum without a Lib Dem collapse.

Also unclear we’d see much of a UKIP surge if the Lib Dems weren’t in government, which would make a Brexit referendum much less likely. Certainly nothing by 2012.

[ricmk]

Had the Tories won a majority, it would have been a tiny one.
So straight away we would have a Government that couldn't pass much legislation unless all its backbenchers agreed.
I think a main difference would have been steeper welfare cuts. Worse on energy, and probably on migrants. Ironically, tuition fees would likely have been held as they were, as hard to see where any majority to change would have come from. U-Turn on Heathrow third runway.

My guess is that the pledge for an EU referendum would still have found its way into the 2015 manifesto but I don't see it happening in the 2010-15 term.
I do think the Scottish referendum would have been tighter as the Government would have had less of a Scottish element and fewer sympathetic elements. Maybe Cameron would still have resigned after losing his referendum, just not that one?

[The Bishop]

Oct 7, 2022 7:40:20 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Lib Dems have less seats than they got probably Labour too, Miliband still loses in 2015

Though of course the other Miliband *might* be more likely to get elected leader in this scenario. Never been convinced he does significantly better than Ed though.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Oct 7, 2022 9:33:55 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 7, 2022 7:40:20 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Lib Dems have less seats than they got probably Labour too, Miliband still loses in 2015

Though of course the other Miliband *might* be more likely to get elected leader in this scenario. Never been convinced he does significantly better than Ed though.

Me neither

[michaelarden]

Oct 7, 2022 9:03:17 GMT ricmk said:

Had the Tories won a majority, it would have been a tiny one.
So straight away we would have a Government that couldn't pass much legislation unless all its backbenchers agreed.
I think a main difference would have been steeper welfare cuts. Worse on energy, and probably on migrants. Ironically, tuition fees would likely have been held as they were, as hard to see where any majority to change would have come from. U-Turn on Heathrow third runway.

My guess is that the pledge for an EU referendum would still have found its way into the 2015 manifesto but I don't see it happening in the 2010-15 term.
I do think the Scottish referendum would have been tighter as the Government would have had less of a Scottish element and fewer sympathetic elements. Maybe Cameron would still have resigned after losing his referendum, just not that one?

Wasn't the EU referendum a sop to fractious backbenches as well as a way of stifling internal debate? With a small majority wouldn't an EU referendum been used to bargain away the ERG types objections to other parts of the programme. It was in Cameron's 2010 manifesto (I believe) so could easily have come about before 2012.

[nobodyimportant]

Oct 7, 2022 9:45:42 GMT michaelarden said:

Oct 7, 2022 9:03:17 GMT ricmk said:

Had the Tories won a majority, it would have been a tiny one.
So straight away we would have a Government that couldn't pass much legislation unless all its backbenchers agreed.
I think a main difference would have been steeper welfare cuts. Worse on energy, and probably on migrants. Ironically, tuition fees would likely have been held as they were, as hard to see where any majority to change would have come from. U-Turn on Heathrow third runway.

My guess is that the pledge for an EU referendum would still have found its way into the 2015 manifesto but I don't see it happening in the 2010-15 term.
I do think the Scottish referendum would have been tighter as the Government would have had less of a Scottish element and fewer sympathetic elements. Maybe Cameron would still have resigned after losing his referendum, just not that one?

Wasn't the EU referendum a sop to fractious backbenches as well as a way of stifling internal debate? With a small majority wouldn't an EU referendum been used to bargain away the ERG types objections to other parts of the programme. It was in Cameron's 2010 manifesto (I believe) so could easily have come about before 2012.

The Conservatives 2010 general election manifesto promised a referendum on any transfer of powers to Europe, that the UK would not join the Euro without a referendum, and to negotiate for certain powers to be returned from the EU to the UK.

It did not even mention the possibility of a referendum on EU membership under any circumstances.

I would not have had the relatively high opinion of Cameron/Osborne etc. that I did at the time if it had done.

[stb12]

A big part of the SNP winning a majority in the 2011 Scottish parliament election was the collapse of the Lib Dems, I’d say that wouldn’t have happened without the coalition as they had a pretty consistent solid Scottish vote

[tonyhill]

I thought about having a go at answering this, but concluded that it is in the too recent past to allow one to make the simplifications necessary to be able to have a view on what might have been the consequences.

[rockefeller]

Map: www.yapms.com/app/?m=hw8u. CON 328; LAB 242; LD 51

I gave the Tories the UKIP vote to get them a majority.