Post by Robert Waller on Sept 16, 2022 18:58:32 GMT
There are some constituencies that look like a rag-bag of disparate areas that have been rather cobbled together to form an unconvincing whole. This is often because they have been the extra seat created in a unit defined for the purposes of parliamentary boundary commissions, when that unit (say a county or a group of counties) achieves population growth that mathematically demands increased representation. One such is Clwyd South. Strictly speaking it is a development dating from 1997 of the Clwyd South West division that was created in the above circumstances in 1983. It is arguable that give the persistent over-representation of Wales it should never have been created in the first time, but as that anomaly is being corrected at last in the present set of boundary reviews it should come as no surprise that Clwyd South is one of the eight constituencies that will in effect disappear as the number of seats in Wales is reduced from 40 to 32.
This will at first sight look like a Conservative loss, as there is a sitting Tory MP, Simon Baynes. However his narrow gain in 2019 marks the only time the Conservatives ever won Clwyd South. More typical was the clear defeat suffered by the party’s candidate in its inaugural contest in 1997, one Boris Johnson (aged 32). They had also only won Clwyd SW once, in 1983. What is more, Labour’s Ken Skates held the identical Clwyd South constituency in the May 2021 Senedd election, with a comfortable lead of 12%. This can therefore be characterized as a semi-marginal Labour seat that is vulnerable only in exceptional circumstances. There are, however, considerable variations in the nature of the parts of the seat.
Clwyd South is, or has been, an extensive, seat in the north eastern quadrant of Wales. There are no large towns, and quite a bit of rugged countryside, including the dramatic mountains around Llangollen. At first sight, this would not seem to be ideal terrain to harbour a Labour seat. But this is Wales; the Conservative Party cannot rely on the rural vote here. Two other factors hamper them too. This area has a high proportion of Welsh speakers for Clwyd, about a fifth of the total; and these individuals, often with a nonconformist and even Nationalist background, are not usually well disposed to a Conservative Party which has often been seen as English and elitist. Finally, there is a strong industrial heritage here too, in the hinterland south and west of Wrexham which was once dominated by coal-mining and brickmaking. There are a number of large ex-colliery ‘villages’ here such as Rhosllanerchrugog, Johnstown, and Coedpoeth; a scrutiny of vintage Ordnance Survey maps of these communities reveal an extraordinary preponderance of crosses indicting the presence of chapels, mostly know demolished or converted to other, more secular, usage.
www.clwydfhs.org.uk/miscellanea/dencollieries.htm
There was also a large chemical works at Cefn-mawr until 2010, and a major steelworks at Brymbo until 1990.
There are some voters in the villages and hill farms in the picturesque scenery around Llangollen, Corwen, Llanarmon Dyffryn Ceiriog and Llandrillo, which is just about in mid Wales, as the western boundary of the seat extends towards Lake Bala. More electors are to be found, however, in a compact industrial area around Chirk and Ruabon, including Ponciau, Pen-y-cae and Cefn, which also figures extensively the historic list of ‘Denbighshire’ collieries above, and includes the Pontcysyllte aqueduct, which is one of the most impressive features of the British canal system (the Shropshire Union canal manages to penetrate through the mountains all the way to Llangollen, and makes for a special week on a narrowboat, for those who like that sort of thing). This is traditionally Labour country in general elections. The Plas Madoc ward, for example, near Cefn-mawr still has over 78% of its housing in council hands on 2011, a rare figure even for an inner-city area nowadays.
However the temper in local government elections is largely Independent. One extreme example in the May 2022 Wrexham county borough contests was in Pen-y-cae: John Phillips (Independent) 579 votes, Labour 40, Conservative 7. Independents swept a majority the wards in this seat in 2022, with exceptions such as Labour’s victories in Coedpoeth, Ruabon, Cefn East and Cefn West (and even there it was narrow; Labour won Ruabon by 4 votes, and held off the splendidly named Independent Sonia Tyger Benbow-Jones in Cefn West by a margin of only 6). The Conservatives’ local success was even more limited, and mainly confined to the furthest east (and least ‘Welsh’) section of Clwyd South, in the two wards of Bangor-is-y-Coed and Bronington & Hanmer, both of which reach the English border with Cheshire. The chances must be that Labour would have regained Clwyd South at the next general election – if it were still to exist.
However that is unlikely to be the case. In the provisional recommendations of the Welsh Boundary Commission, this seat was to be split three ways. Nine per cent of it was recommended to go into an enlarged Alyn & Deeside, in the shape of Brymbo and Minera, 48% though added to Wrexham - close to half of the electorate, but not of the acreage. That is because the remaining 43% of Clwyd South , around 25,000 voters, was proposed to join a cross-boundary seat with the former Powys to be called Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr. The Glyndwr section seems to be named after a defunct local authority which existed between 1974 and 1996 within another defunct local authority, the county of Clwyd.
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/sites/bcomm/files/pages/Montgomeryshire%20and%20Glyndwr.png
As will be seen from the map, ‘Glyndwr’ was to include not only the wide open spaces of Corwen, Llandrillo and Llangollen, but also Chirk and the more highly populated Ruabon mini-conurbation (confusingly labelled in the inset in the map as ‘Llangollen area’).
Then in the revised (somewhat more than may have been expected) proposals issued in October 2022, while the basic pattern of change was confirmed, for some reason the Llangollen wards were placed in Clwyd East and removed from Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, leaving it with an odd bite mark in its northern boundary. In slightly more than exchange, some more wards from the Wrexham area such as Esclusham, Johnstown and Ponciau were added to the Glyndwr section. This will give Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr somewhat less of a rural balance overall, but it will not change the essential electoral effects. Also, Brymbo and Minera were now recommended to go into Wrexham rather than Alyn & Deeside.
Potentially in a very good year for Labour this section might boost their hopes of pulling off what would be a (very) surprise gain, give Montgomeryshire’s long history of Liberalism and more recent strong Conservatism. But the Tories will clearly start very strong favourites in Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr. The question is likely to be – who will come second? It could be said that this new seat would be at least as artificial and heterogeneous as Clwyd SW and Clwyd South have been; but at least it can be justified on the grounds of the necessary equalisation of electorates across the United Kingdom.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 17.3% 280/650
Owner-occupied 64.5% 397/650
Private rented 11.0% 528/650
Social rented 22.3% 160/650
White 98.2% 86/650
Black 0.3% 455 /650
Asian 0.7% 592/650
Managerial & professional 25.9%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.0%
Employed in manufacturing 17.4% 18/650
Degree level 22.3% 423/650
No qualifications 26.6% 192/650
Students 6.5% 380/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 64.5% 324/573
Private rented 15.1% 430/573
Social rented 20.3% 147/573
White 97.7%
Black 0.4%
Asian 0.7%
Managerial & professional 27.7% 413/573
Routine & Semi-routine 29.0% 117/573
Degree level 29.1% 364/573
No qualifications 20.4% 178/573
General election 2019: Clwyd South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Simon Baynes 16,222 44.7 +5.6
Labour Susan Elan Jones 14,983 41.3 -9.4
Plaid Cymru Christopher Allen 2,137 5.9 -0.2
Liberal Democrats Calum Davies 1,496 4.1 +2.1
Brexit Party Jamie Adams 1,468 4.0 N/A
C Majority 1,239 3.4
Turnout 36,306 67.3 -1.6
Registered electors 53,919
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 7.5 Lab to C
This will at first sight look like a Conservative loss, as there is a sitting Tory MP, Simon Baynes. However his narrow gain in 2019 marks the only time the Conservatives ever won Clwyd South. More typical was the clear defeat suffered by the party’s candidate in its inaugural contest in 1997, one Boris Johnson (aged 32). They had also only won Clwyd SW once, in 1983. What is more, Labour’s Ken Skates held the identical Clwyd South constituency in the May 2021 Senedd election, with a comfortable lead of 12%. This can therefore be characterized as a semi-marginal Labour seat that is vulnerable only in exceptional circumstances. There are, however, considerable variations in the nature of the parts of the seat.
Clwyd South is, or has been, an extensive, seat in the north eastern quadrant of Wales. There are no large towns, and quite a bit of rugged countryside, including the dramatic mountains around Llangollen. At first sight, this would not seem to be ideal terrain to harbour a Labour seat. But this is Wales; the Conservative Party cannot rely on the rural vote here. Two other factors hamper them too. This area has a high proportion of Welsh speakers for Clwyd, about a fifth of the total; and these individuals, often with a nonconformist and even Nationalist background, are not usually well disposed to a Conservative Party which has often been seen as English and elitist. Finally, there is a strong industrial heritage here too, in the hinterland south and west of Wrexham which was once dominated by coal-mining and brickmaking. There are a number of large ex-colliery ‘villages’ here such as Rhosllanerchrugog, Johnstown, and Coedpoeth; a scrutiny of vintage Ordnance Survey maps of these communities reveal an extraordinary preponderance of crosses indicting the presence of chapels, mostly know demolished or converted to other, more secular, usage.
www.clwydfhs.org.uk/miscellanea/dencollieries.htm
There was also a large chemical works at Cefn-mawr until 2010, and a major steelworks at Brymbo until 1990.
There are some voters in the villages and hill farms in the picturesque scenery around Llangollen, Corwen, Llanarmon Dyffryn Ceiriog and Llandrillo, which is just about in mid Wales, as the western boundary of the seat extends towards Lake Bala. More electors are to be found, however, in a compact industrial area around Chirk and Ruabon, including Ponciau, Pen-y-cae and Cefn, which also figures extensively the historic list of ‘Denbighshire’ collieries above, and includes the Pontcysyllte aqueduct, which is one of the most impressive features of the British canal system (the Shropshire Union canal manages to penetrate through the mountains all the way to Llangollen, and makes for a special week on a narrowboat, for those who like that sort of thing). This is traditionally Labour country in general elections. The Plas Madoc ward, for example, near Cefn-mawr still has over 78% of its housing in council hands on 2011, a rare figure even for an inner-city area nowadays.
However the temper in local government elections is largely Independent. One extreme example in the May 2022 Wrexham county borough contests was in Pen-y-cae: John Phillips (Independent) 579 votes, Labour 40, Conservative 7. Independents swept a majority the wards in this seat in 2022, with exceptions such as Labour’s victories in Coedpoeth, Ruabon, Cefn East and Cefn West (and even there it was narrow; Labour won Ruabon by 4 votes, and held off the splendidly named Independent Sonia Tyger Benbow-Jones in Cefn West by a margin of only 6). The Conservatives’ local success was even more limited, and mainly confined to the furthest east (and least ‘Welsh’) section of Clwyd South, in the two wards of Bangor-is-y-Coed and Bronington & Hanmer, both of which reach the English border with Cheshire. The chances must be that Labour would have regained Clwyd South at the next general election – if it were still to exist.
However that is unlikely to be the case. In the provisional recommendations of the Welsh Boundary Commission, this seat was to be split three ways. Nine per cent of it was recommended to go into an enlarged Alyn & Deeside, in the shape of Brymbo and Minera, 48% though added to Wrexham - close to half of the electorate, but not of the acreage. That is because the remaining 43% of Clwyd South , around 25,000 voters, was proposed to join a cross-boundary seat with the former Powys to be called Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr. The Glyndwr section seems to be named after a defunct local authority which existed between 1974 and 1996 within another defunct local authority, the county of Clwyd.
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/sites/bcomm/files/pages/Montgomeryshire%20and%20Glyndwr.png
As will be seen from the map, ‘Glyndwr’ was to include not only the wide open spaces of Corwen, Llandrillo and Llangollen, but also Chirk and the more highly populated Ruabon mini-conurbation (confusingly labelled in the inset in the map as ‘Llangollen area’).
Then in the revised (somewhat more than may have been expected) proposals issued in October 2022, while the basic pattern of change was confirmed, for some reason the Llangollen wards were placed in Clwyd East and removed from Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, leaving it with an odd bite mark in its northern boundary. In slightly more than exchange, some more wards from the Wrexham area such as Esclusham, Johnstown and Ponciau were added to the Glyndwr section. This will give Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr somewhat less of a rural balance overall, but it will not change the essential electoral effects. Also, Brymbo and Minera were now recommended to go into Wrexham rather than Alyn & Deeside.
Potentially in a very good year for Labour this section might boost their hopes of pulling off what would be a (very) surprise gain, give Montgomeryshire’s long history of Liberalism and more recent strong Conservatism. But the Tories will clearly start very strong favourites in Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr. The question is likely to be – who will come second? It could be said that this new seat would be at least as artificial and heterogeneous as Clwyd SW and Clwyd South have been; but at least it can be justified on the grounds of the necessary equalisation of electorates across the United Kingdom.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 17.3% 280/650
Owner-occupied 64.5% 397/650
Private rented 11.0% 528/650
Social rented 22.3% 160/650
White 98.2% 86/650
Black 0.3% 455 /650
Asian 0.7% 592/650
Managerial & professional 25.9%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.0%
Employed in manufacturing 17.4% 18/650
Degree level 22.3% 423/650
No qualifications 26.6% 192/650
Students 6.5% 380/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 64.5% 324/573
Private rented 15.1% 430/573
Social rented 20.3% 147/573
White 97.7%
Black 0.4%
Asian 0.7%
Managerial & professional 27.7% 413/573
Routine & Semi-routine 29.0% 117/573
Degree level 29.1% 364/573
No qualifications 20.4% 178/573
General election 2019: Clwyd South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Simon Baynes 16,222 44.7 +5.6
Labour Susan Elan Jones 14,983 41.3 -9.4
Plaid Cymru Christopher Allen 2,137 5.9 -0.2
Liberal Democrats Calum Davies 1,496 4.1 +2.1
Brexit Party Jamie Adams 1,468 4.0 N/A
C Majority 1,239 3.4
Turnout 36,306 67.3 -1.6
Registered electors 53,919
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 7.5 Lab to C