Post by John Chanin on Sept 12, 2022 10:31:53 GMT
There are four distinct parts to this very varied seat. The largest is the town of Kings Lynn, with a population of over 40,000 (and an electorate of 30,000), which accounts for nearly half the seat. The port at the mouth of the wide Great Ouse was a very important mediaeval town, and has some splendid old buildings to prove it. But modern Lynn is something of a backwater, and is very much a working class town, with a majority of Labour councillors. The sizable amount of council housing is concentrated on the west of the town alongside the river, plus the Fairstead estate on the eastern edge, with routine workers substantially exceeding managerial throughout. In North Lynn just 8% have degrees, and 12% managerial jobs - exceptionally low figures even for a council estate ward. Gaywood to the north-east is predominantly owner-occupied, but not much better off. The middle-class population is concentrated in suburban Woottons to the north of the town.
The second largest component is a complete contrast. This is part of the holiday coast of north Norfolk, with around 20,000 voters, centred on the resort of Hunstanton, where there is a beach. Most of the settlements are inland, separated from the North Sea by marshes, protecting the low-lying land. These are attractive villages with typical Norfolk cobbled stone houses, like Brancaster and Burnham Market. The retired population is over a third throughout this area, reaching a peak of 39% in Hunstanton itself. As would be expected from this, educational qualifications are not high, and there is quite a lot of private renting, as well as owner-occupation, but voting is solidly Conservative, and generally the only competition comes from independents. Just inland, and not far from Lynn, is the small town of Dersingham, adjacent to the heavily wooded king’s estate of Sandringham.
Another 15,000 voters come from inland and agricultural Norfolk, scattered among many small villages, mostly fairly workaday. At local level this is also Conservative voting, with many independents, but like other rural areas will be heavily Conservative at General Elections. The retired population is lower here, and managerial workers generally exceed routine, though educational qualifications remain low as is common in rural areas. Lastly there is a small section of fens, to the west of the Great Ouse, with a decidedly working-class, although predominantly owner-occupied, population.
Overall as the statistics below show, the seat is distinctive for both its working-class and low education, and its high numbers of retired people. There is a small south asian population in Lynn, but overall the seat is almost entirely white. In normal circumstances the retirement coast and the rural countryside outvote the town of Lynn, but this has not always been the case. Labour won the parliamentary seat in 1945, held it narrowly in 1950 by less than 300 votes, and then lost it in 1951, although the seat was more tightly drawn around the town in those days. After extension in 1974 which made it safe for the Conservatives, it was reduced again in 1983 to roughly its present boundaries. In 1997 however Labour made a surprise gain on a swing of over 10%, only for this to be one of the 5 seats lost back to the Conservatives in 2001. Subsequently the Labour vote collapsed, with the 13.3% in 2010 being the lowest Labour vote in the country for a seat won in 1997. Since then they have recovered a bit, with the usual decline in the Liberal Democrat vote (there are no Liberal Democrat councillors in this constituency), but there is no realistic prospect of a Labour win in the future. Current MP, first elected in 2019, is James Wild, a former SPAD from Norwich originally.
The only change proposed by the Boundary Commission is to move the whole of the Walsoken ward in from South West Norfolk, taking the seat to the border of Wisbech. These 3000 voters will bolster the Conservative position.
Census data: owner-occupied 68% (278/573 in England & Wales), private rented 15% (271st), social rented 15% (292nd).
:White 97%, Black 0%, South Asian 1%, Mixed 1%, Other 1%
: Managerial & professional 28% (474th), Routine & Semi-routine 37% (116th)
: Degree level 19%(469th), Minimal qualifications 44%(93rd)
: Students 2% (521st), Over 65- 23% (30th)
The second largest component is a complete contrast. This is part of the holiday coast of north Norfolk, with around 20,000 voters, centred on the resort of Hunstanton, where there is a beach. Most of the settlements are inland, separated from the North Sea by marshes, protecting the low-lying land. These are attractive villages with typical Norfolk cobbled stone houses, like Brancaster and Burnham Market. The retired population is over a third throughout this area, reaching a peak of 39% in Hunstanton itself. As would be expected from this, educational qualifications are not high, and there is quite a lot of private renting, as well as owner-occupation, but voting is solidly Conservative, and generally the only competition comes from independents. Just inland, and not far from Lynn, is the small town of Dersingham, adjacent to the heavily wooded king’s estate of Sandringham.
Another 15,000 voters come from inland and agricultural Norfolk, scattered among many small villages, mostly fairly workaday. At local level this is also Conservative voting, with many independents, but like other rural areas will be heavily Conservative at General Elections. The retired population is lower here, and managerial workers generally exceed routine, though educational qualifications remain low as is common in rural areas. Lastly there is a small section of fens, to the west of the Great Ouse, with a decidedly working-class, although predominantly owner-occupied, population.
Overall as the statistics below show, the seat is distinctive for both its working-class and low education, and its high numbers of retired people. There is a small south asian population in Lynn, but overall the seat is almost entirely white. In normal circumstances the retirement coast and the rural countryside outvote the town of Lynn, but this has not always been the case. Labour won the parliamentary seat in 1945, held it narrowly in 1950 by less than 300 votes, and then lost it in 1951, although the seat was more tightly drawn around the town in those days. After extension in 1974 which made it safe for the Conservatives, it was reduced again in 1983 to roughly its present boundaries. In 1997 however Labour made a surprise gain on a swing of over 10%, only for this to be one of the 5 seats lost back to the Conservatives in 2001. Subsequently the Labour vote collapsed, with the 13.3% in 2010 being the lowest Labour vote in the country for a seat won in 1997. Since then they have recovered a bit, with the usual decline in the Liberal Democrat vote (there are no Liberal Democrat councillors in this constituency), but there is no realistic prospect of a Labour win in the future. Current MP, first elected in 2019, is James Wild, a former SPAD from Norwich originally.
The only change proposed by the Boundary Commission is to move the whole of the Walsoken ward in from South West Norfolk, taking the seat to the border of Wisbech. These 3000 voters will bolster the Conservative position.
Census data: owner-occupied 68% (278/573 in England & Wales), private rented 15% (271st), social rented 15% (292nd).
:White 97%, Black 0%, South Asian 1%, Mixed 1%, Other 1%
: Managerial & professional 28% (474th), Routine & Semi-routine 37% (116th)
: Degree level 19%(469th), Minimal qualifications 44%(93rd)
: Students 2% (521st), Over 65- 23% (30th)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Conservative | 25,916 | 54.2% | 24,727 | 52.2% | 29,408 | 60.2% | 30,627 | 65.7% |
Labour | 6,353 | 13.3% | 10,779 | 22.8% | 15,620 | 32.0% | 10,705 | 23.0% |
Liberal Democrat | 11,106 | 23.2% | 1,673 | 3.5% | 1,393 | 2.9% | 3,625 | 7.8% |
UKIP | 1,841 | 3.9% | 8,412 | 17.8% | 1,539 | 3.2% | ||
Green | 745 | 1.6% | 1,780 | 3.8% | 851 | 1.7% | 1,645 | 3.5% |
Others | 1,839 | 3.8% | ||||||
Majority | 14,810 | 31.0% | 13,948 | 29.4% | 13,788 | 28.2% | 19,922 | 42.7% |
