What if the republicans had won the Spanish Civil war ?

[mark1968]

So what impact on the world would there be if the Republicans had won the Spanish Civil war ? Or what if no attempt was made to overthrow the republican government ? How would it change events in Spanish history,

[finsobruce]

Sept 4, 2022 19:39:58 GMT mark1968 said:

So what impact on the world would there be if the Republicans had won the Spanish Civil war ? Or what if no attempt was made to overthrow the republican government ? How would it change events in Spanish history,

Lorca would have written a lot more plays.

[mark1968]

Sept 4, 2022 19:39:58 GMT mark1968 said:

So what impact on the world would there be if the Republicans had won the Spanish Civil war ? Or what if no attempt was made to overthrow the republican government ? How would it change events in Spanish history,

   A small  thought is that we might not have had the Portillo moment in this country and maybe Spanish politics might have the rise of Migel Portillo in the 1980's and 1990's. Assuming he is born at all as his mother is English and she  only met his father due to the evacuation of Basque children in the late 1930's. So many small things are affected by the impact of one large event ! 

[Strontium Dog]

Real Madrid would not have enjoyed as much success.

[johnloony]

Sept 4, 2022 19:39:58 GMT mark1968 said:

So what impact on the world would there be if the Republicans had won the Spanish Civil war ? Or what if no attempt was made to overthrow the republican government ? How would it change events in Spanish history,

It would have been a democratic republic in the 1930s, invaded by Germany in the 1940s (with a Vichy-style puppet government) and then reverting to the republic after WW2.

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 7, 2022 12:08:09 GMT johnloony said:

Sept 4, 2022 19:39:58 GMT mark1968 said:

So what impact on the world would there be if the Republicans had won the Spanish Civil war ? Or what if no attempt was made to overthrow the republican government ? How would it change events in Spanish history,

It would have been a democratic republic in the 1930s, invaded by Germany in the 1940s (with a Vichy-style puppet government) and then reverting to the republic after WW2.

If the second thing had occurred, then Gibraltar would have been taken by Germany as well. 'After WW2' might then have looked a bit different..

[iainbhx]

Dec 7, 2022 12:10:28 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Dec 7, 2022 12:08:09 GMT johnloony said:

It would have been a democratic republic in the 1930s, invaded by Germany in the 1940s (with a Vichy-style puppet government) and then reverting to the republic after WW2.

If the second thing had occurred, then Gibraltar would have been taken by Germany as well. 'After WW2' might then have looked a bit different..

WWII would have looked a bit different in a number of ways. A long slow slog through a badly war damaged Spain with a Siege for Gibraltar, even more divisions held down to garrison Spain even if there was a Vichy government. Questions about what would happen to Portugal (not getting access to the Azores would be bad - but we would have the Canaries to use probably). Hard to see a 1941 Barbarossa after a Spanish adventure. Lots of potential differences - no Gib almost certainly means Malta going and quite possibly Italian victories in North Africa.

[johnloony]

Dec 8, 2022 7:57:13 GMT iainbhx said:

Dec 7, 2022 12:10:28 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

If the second thing had occurred, then Gibraltar would have been taken by Germany as well. 'After WW2' might then have looked a bit different..

WWII would have looked a bit different in a number of ways. A long slow slog through a badly war damaged Spain with a Siege for Gibraltar, even more divisions held down to garrison Spain even if there was a Vichy government. Questions about what would happen to Portugal (not getting access to the Azores would be bad - but we would have the Canaries to use probably). Hard to see a 1941 Barbarossa after a Spanish adventure. Lots of potential differences - no Gib almost certainly means Malta going and quite possibly Italian victories in North Africa.

I think the premise of this is that if the Republicans had won the civil war, the civil war would not have happenedd in the first place. i.e. the nationalist uprising would have been squashed at its inception, or it wouldn't have developed very far - so Spain would not be as "war damaged" in the first place.

[iainbhx]

Dec 8, 2022 14:18:08 GMT johnloony said:

Dec 8, 2022 7:57:13 GMT iainbhx said:

WWII would have looked a bit different in a number of ways. A long slow slog through a badly war damaged Spain with a Siege for Gibraltar, even more divisions held down to garrison Spain even if there was a Vichy government. Questions about what would happen to Portugal (not getting access to the Azores would be bad - but we would have the Canaries to use probably). Hard to see a 1941 Barbarossa after a Spanish adventure. Lots of potential differences - no Gib almost certainly means Malta going and quite possibly Italian victories in North Africa.

I think the premise of this is that if the Republicans had won the civil war, the civil war would not have happenedd in the first place. i.e. the nationalist uprising would have been squashed at its inception, or it wouldn't have developed very far - so Spain would not be as "war damaged" in the first place.

That's a fair point, but it's still a long way with poor infrastructure and a quick win means a much more dangerous Spanish Army, although possibly not one that has buddied up so much with the USSR.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

I agree that Nazi Germany would have invaded in order to seize Gibraltar. The reason why they did not in our timeline was because Franco was seen as trustworthy to some degree having been rescued from 'El Rif' by the Luftwaffe, despite the intense dislike Hitler had for him after their meeting at Hendaye, and many in the German military admired Franco personally. Most notably Admiral Canaris. I think that if Germany had seized Gibraltar, Operation Husky and Operation Torch would not have happened. In the absence of an Allied invasion of Italy, it's highly doubtful that Mussolini would have fallen. However, I am not sure the Nazis would have won in that scenario. I'm not convinced they would have been able to subdue the Soviets completely, though they probably would have got a bit further and taken Moscow eventually. They then would've had to guard all their external frontiers, an active one with the Soviets near somewhere like Kazan and have been sitting on a powder keg in the occupied east. The Allies would also have still got the bomb, defeated Japan and nuclear weapons could then have been deployed against the Germans, had the Western Allies wanted to continue the war, especially in the east and on major German cities. I think the Reich would have been a ramshackle thing and collapsed anyway. It just would have taken a lot longer and cost a lot more lives.

[islington]

Sept 4, 2022 19:39:58 GMT mark1968 said:

So what impact on the world would there be if the Republicans had won the Spanish Civil war ? Or what if no attempt was made to overthrow the republican government ? How would it change events in Spanish history,

But would a Republican victory have ended the war?

Isn't it likelier that the Communists would have resorted to force to contest power with the (as they would see it) bourgeois elements on the Republican side?

And picking up on other points above, even if the republican side had won the war and had stayed sufficiently united to form an effective government, would the Germans really have invaded after the fall of France? It would have been a reckless move. Even in a disturbed internal condition, Spain can be a tougher nut to crack than it looks, especially if the British get involved (as they are strategically well-positioned to do). Further enquiries on this point should be addressed to 'Bonaparte, N'.

On the other hand, to Hitler's way of thinking 'reckless' seemed to be a feature rather than a bug, so maybe such an invasion would have taken place. But even if it had been successfully achieved, including Gibraltar, I don't think it would have extinguished British activity in the Mediterranean because I imagine that we'd simply have seized Ceuta instead and probably also, in our public-sprited way, have taken the Tangier International Zone under British protection as well. I don't think the Germans could have stopped this and it would have given us continued access to the Mediterranean as well as a refuge in Spanish Morocco for an anti-Nazi Spanish government. 

[WJ]

I struggle to see Hitler going for Spain. He'd spread himself way too thin. If it did happen though, Portugal would have been strong-armed by Britain into joining on the side of the Allies one way or another. Either by invoking the Treaty of Windsor or by simply doing a friendly invasion vis-à-vis Iceland in WW2 or Greece in WW1.

Meanwhile the Germans would struggle to hold down republican strongholds in Spain itself due to uprisings and guerrilla activity from bands of battle-scarred and experienced partisans which were particularly fierce in the most resource rich parts of the country, such as the north.

Either way, if WW2 ended up with the same general outcome I think we would have seen a series of coups and government collapses in Spain over the following decades and I think we would end up with a Spain which would have been more similar to a South American democracy than a Western European one.