Donald Dewar lives

[rockefeller]

What happens? Does Dewar stick around until 2003? Does he step down earlier? Later? What would a longer Dewar ministry mean for the SNP?

[mattbewilson]

Scottish Labour has been plagued by an a revolving door of leaders. They've had about 5 since the referendum. I think that's done a lot of damage. A longer Dewar ministry would have meant more consistency

[msc]

Donald Dewar was, sadly, a very ill man by 2000, so even if he lived through that one bit of misfortune (the fall), he wasn't going to be long in the job. In fact, Dewar himself had privately admitted he was probably going to resign if his health woes continued. In that timeline, the McLeish/McConnell split for successor is about the same, it just happens a few months later. John Swinney had become leader of the SNP before Dewar died so the SNP wouldn't have done much else. The SNP already lost 10 MSPs (and gained 2) in the 2003 elections. I suppose with a stronger Dewar/McLeish handover, the Labour vote might have held up better in some of the narrow SNP holds/gains (Ochil and Aberdeen North were won very narrowly).

However, even then, Henry McLeish was going to be toppled before long, and Jack McConnell was going to take over. And Jack McConnell was going to be Jack McConnell, and Swinney was going to be torpedoed by his predecessors mates. So however you change the timeline to protect Donald, it still ends in McConnell's Labour vs Salmond's SNP in 2007. imo, anyhow.

Incidentally, given the topic, a name from the past - we knew John Rafferty! (Dewar's Chief Advisor who got sacked for allegedly death threats in 1999.) He was the organist at mum's church. My memories - he left the church soon after the scandal - were of him as a nice but humourless and quiet chap, so finding out as an adult he was a sort of cabinet bruiser in his day job is quite amusing.

[timrollpickering]

If Dewar had lived would there have been a proper contest for the Scottish Labour leadership to succeed him? My recollection is that there were a lot of unopposed elections and that can often deny both the leader and the party the opportunity to find out their weaknesses on the campaign trail. Would a more conventional succession have delivered a more experienced leader and maybe also have exposed sooner the decayed nature of the Scottish party.

But a lot of Labour's problems predate Dewar's death - everything from the central control, keeping key talent out of the Scottish Parliament and even the intellectual shift as politically minded university graduates went into the SNP rather than Labour.

[The Bishop]

Which is why Wendy Alexander - one of SLab's genuinely able politicians - having to resign over an almost entirely confected non-scandal was such a pivotal moment. It was reported that PM Brown didn't intervene to save her partly because he thought any successor would be easier to "control" - well, be careful what you wish for indeed.

[rcronald]

Can someone remind me
A. What were the major differences between McConnell and McLeish
B.Why was McConnell so bad?

[michaelarden]

Dewar is surely another Scottish machine politician (a la Smith) whose premature death falsely boosts their reputation. Had he lived he'd have made the same mistakes as his successors did in reality because that's what Scottish Labour did (and continues to do).

[stb12]

Sept 2, 2022 15:22:32 GMT michaelarden said:

Dewar is surely another Scottish machine politician (a la Smith) whose premature death falsely boosts their reputation. Had he lived he'd have made the same mistakes as his successors did in reality because that's what Scottish Labour did (and continues to do).

The difference is Smith and Dewar had talent as politicians while the likes of McConnell really didn't

[greyfriar]

Of the 56 Scottish Labour MPs returned in the 1997 election, Dewar was far from unknown, but similarly his defection to Holyrood in 1999 made him a big fish in a small pond, whereas several of the big beasts opting to remain at Westminster were surely of higher calibre.

At the risk of applying hindsight and viewing their profile through the lens of their subsequent ministerial careers, had the likes of Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling, John Reid, George Robertson and Robin Cook decided to apply their efforts to making devolution work from north of the border, how much brighter and better might have been Labour’s 1999 and 2003 administrations, as opposed to the rather mediocre and stale cabinet which had run out of steam by 2007. 

Indeed, might Gordon Brown occasionally contemplate a parallel pathway in which he voluntarily withdrew from the Granita deal to take up the reigns in Edinburgh, applying his considerable ability to optimising devolution and improving the lot of the Scottish people. At the very least his regrets of what might have been as PM as opposed to FM, would surely leave him as far less of a Gollum than the lived reality of a bitter and spiteful decade sparring with Blair, followed by an underwhelming couple of years steering a vehicle which was spluttering into the hard shoulder.

[Merseymike]

That was the problem though.
Although Labour fashioned devolution it was definitely not seen as the equivalent of Westminster in terms of political career, and if anything the quality of Labour representative declined from its original makeup which did at least include people like Dewar.
Then they lost nearly all the FPTP seats and ended up with the C team.

[neilm]

Indeed, it has often been commented that the SNP sent the A-team to Holyrood, whereas SLab sent the A-team to Westminster and ended up with the C-team in the list seats, and then ended up stuck with those people. The introduction of STV in 2007 allowed the SNP to develop the profile of 'winners' further.

You can almost imagine Salmond rubbing his hands and saying 'I love it when a plan comes together.'

[stb12]

I know he was a divisive figure when it came to Labour factions but Jim Murphy was also someone who could have made a difference if he’d made an early move to Holyrood. By the time he did decide to try and make that move too much damage had already been done

[greyfriar]

Sept 3, 2022 8:36:33 GMT stb12 said:

I know he was a divisive figure when it came to Labour factions but Jim Murphy was also someone who could have made a difference if he’d made an early move to Holyrood. By the time he did decide to try and make that move too much damage had already been done

I swithered with putting Murphy on the list and had some doubts as to the proven pedigree of even Darling and Reid based on their 1999 standing. Aside from the makeup of the Labour front bench, what ultimately ran through the party of that era was a generational arrogance and hubris.

Despite the potential for better technocratic governance and societal improvement with better names on the teamsheet, it’s arguable this factor may have sown its own seeds for decline. An example of Labour’s failure to adapt to the d’hondt AMS system, not backing up big hitters in the regions and indeed questioning the equality of the list MSPs with their constituency equivalents.

[No Offence Alan]

Sept 3, 2022 9:29:15 GMT greyfriar said:

Sept 3, 2022 8:36:33 GMT stb12 said:

I know he was a divisive figure when it came to Labour factions but Jim Murphy was also someone who could have made a difference if he’d made an early move to Holyrood. By the time he did decide to try and make that move too much damage had already been done

I swithered with putting Murphy on the list and had some doubts as to the proven pedigree of even Darling and Reid based on their 1999 standing. Aside from the makeup of the Labour front bench, what ultimately ran through the party of that era was a generational arrogance and hubris.

Despite the potential for better technocratic governance and societal improvement with better names on the teamsheet, it’s arguable this factor may have sown its own seeds for decline. An example of Labour’s failure to adapt to the d’hondt AMS system, not backing up big hitters in the regions and indeed questioning the equality of the list MSPs with their constituency equivalents.

An anecdote I was told in 2005, when campaigning in East Dunbartonshire:
When Labour lost Strathkelvin & Bearsden (Holyrood seat) to the Independent Jean Turner in 2003, Labour only spent about half the maximum legally allowed for the campaign, yet spent right up to the limit in neighbouring Springburn, which at that time was safe as houses for Labour.
Very much an "Old Labour" mentality that Labour shouldn't really be representing affluent areas like S&B.

[rockefeller]

Might more of the big beasts head to Holyrood if the SNP beat Labour in the 1994 Monklands East by-election?

[The Bishop]

Sept 2, 2022 19:07:15 GMT stb12 said:

Sept 2, 2022 15:22:32 GMT michaelarden said:

Dewar is surely another Scottish machine politician (a la Smith) whose premature death falsely boosts their reputation. Had he lived he'd have made the same mistakes as his successors did in reality because that's what Scottish Labour did (and continues to do).

The difference is Smith and Dewar had talent as politicians while the likes of McConnell really didn't

Well yes, as with Brown they both had a machine politician element to them but there was also quite a bit more.