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Post by robert1 on Sept 23, 2022 6:32:13 GMT
If Lab get the Bentilee & Ubberley swing in Stoke in May: LAB 32 (+19); CON 11 (-11); CIND 1 (-5); IND 1 (-2). LAB gain from NOC. LAB gains: Abbey Hulton and Townsend; Baddeley, Milton and Norton (x2); Birches Head and Central Forest Park (x2); Blurton West and Newstead; Broadway and Longton East: Burslem Park; Dresden and Florence; Eaton Park; Fenton West and Mount Pleasant; Great Chell and Packmoor (x2); Hollybush and Longton West; Meir South; Penkhull and Stoke; Sneyd Green; Springfields and Trent Vale; Tunstall. Are you intending to post a similar calculation for Coventry following last night's result or Bolton after last week's? |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Sept 23, 2022 6:33:15 GMT
GWBWI
Grn +76
PC +55
Lab +27
LDm -1
Con -25
ASV
Grn +1.3
PC +0.9
Lab +0.5
LDm +0.0
Con -0.4
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Post by willpower3 on Sept 23, 2022 6:41:04 GMT
Llanuwchllyn PC 368 (95.5%) LD 16 ( 4.5%) Well you can see why it's normally uncontested. One of the biggest majorites in a contested election ever? |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Sept 23, 2022 6:45:31 GMT
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Post by rockefeller on Sept 23, 2022 6:48:06 GMT
If Lab get the Bentilee & Ubberley swing in Stoke in May: LAB 32 (+19); CON 11 (-11); CIND 1 (-5); IND 1 (-2). LAB gain from NOC. LAB gains: Abbey Hulton and Townsend; Baddeley, Milton and Norton (x2); Birches Head and Central Forest Park (x2); Blurton West and Newstead; Broadway and Longton East: Burslem Park; Dresden and Florence; Eaton Park; Fenton West and Mount Pleasant; Great Chell and Packmoor (x2); Hollybush and Longton West; Meir South; Penkhull and Stoke; Sneyd Green; Springfields and Trent Vale; Tunstall. Are you intending to post a similar calculation for Coventry following last night's result or Bolton after last week's? Cov yes, Bolly no (Rumworth seems a sui generis result). |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 23, 2022 7:29:53 GMT
That has interesting results in 2015 and 2011 as well as 2019 (two Swindells against each other) |
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Post by robert1 on Sept 23, 2022 7:37:35 GMT
Are you intending to post a similar calculation for Coventry following last night's result or Bolton after last week's? Cov yes, Bolly no (Rumworth seems a sui generis result). I think you missed my point. There is no benefit in making projections in September, based on one off results, on what might happen in next May. |
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Post by rockefeller on Sept 23, 2022 7:43:12 GMT
Cov yes, Bolly no (Rumworth seems a sui generis result). I think you missed my point. There is no benefit in making projections in September, based on one off results, on what might happen in next May. Where did I make a projection for May? The key word is 'if'. It's interesting as Stoke swung right in every GE since 1997. |
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 23, 2022 7:50:17 GMT
Llanuwchllyn PC 368 (95.5%) LD 16 ( 4.5%) Well you can see why it's normally uncontested. To clear one mystery up, it appears that Cllr Evans failed to sign his declaration after the May elections due to a serious bout of Covid. |
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Post by kevinf on Sept 23, 2022 9:49:54 GMT
Well you can see why it's normally uncontested. To clear one mystery up, it appears that Cllr Evans failed to sign his declaration after the May elections due to a serious bout of Covid. That would explain why voters were so forgiving… |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 23, 2022 10:18:37 GMT
Its not too suprising its a gain considering the close margins the last two years, but that's quite a swing in Sherbourne. The Labour one didn't (whilst the deceased incumbent had at least some). And the suspension of campaigning almost certainly played a part, as Labour needed to get their vote out on the day and losing the last two weeks of the campaign would have made that exceedingly difficult. In what respect exactly? This result does suggest that may have been a significant factor. |
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Post by batman on Sept 23, 2022 11:23:36 GMT
it could also be that the Council in general is very unpopular, though there may be a specific ward issue which is compounding that unpopularity
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 23, 2022 12:16:15 GMT
Well we do know about the bin dispute, though that was settled a while ago and Labour didn't perform dreadfully in May's elections given it was still going then.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 23, 2022 12:26:21 GMT
Well we do know about the bin dispute, though that was settled a while ago and Labour didn't perform dreadfully in May's elections given it was still going then. They only just held on in this Ward in May however (majority down to 35), with a long-ish serving councillor whose father and brother had both been councillors, so maybe had some personal support that just made the difference. The Tory candidate’s late father was a Freeman of the City, suggesting he had some service that he may have had the name recognition that this time transferred to his daughter; she was also the candidate in May, so presumably had some name recognition of her own. The bin dispute may have been settled, but IIRC only a month ago, and from a Facebook friend in Coventry things still haven’t returned to normal. The Labour candidate being a postie and CWU official in the midst of a series of post strikes might not have been well received either. |
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Post by John Chanin on Sept 23, 2022 12:46:48 GMT
Well we do know about the bin dispute, though that was settled a while ago and Labour didn't perform dreadfully in May's elections given it was still going then. They only just held on in this Ward in May however (majority down to 35), with a long-ish serving councillor whose father and brother had both been councillors, so maybe had some personal support that just made the difference. The Tory candidate’s late father was a Freeman of the City, suggesting he had some service that he may have had the name recognition that this time transferred to his daughter; she was also the candidate in May, so presumably had some name recognition of her own. The bin dispute may have been settled, but IIRC only a month ago, and from a Facebook friend in Coventry things still haven’t returned to normal. The Labour candidate being a postie and CWU official in the midst of a series of post strikes might not have been well received either. This is all very well, and a narrow Conservative win might be explained away, but they won very easily. This was a dreadful result for Labour. Meanwhile Labour do unexpectedly well, albeit by default, in a rundown Stoke ward. The Greens continue their run of wins in very conservative rural wards. And PC attack the record for winning percentage. This is the oddest collection of results for some time. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Sept 23, 2022 13:14:58 GMT
Coventry was dire for Labour. What's going on there?
From a distance it looks like an unpopular council - the bin strikes might be over but they still happened.
The only thing I know about Labour's campaigning there is that awful video from a couple of elections ago about the MP and Councillor candidates door-knocking and looking like idiots when they were being filmed.
Then the likes of Zarah Sultana, who surprisingly seems to be sailing through re-selection.
If I didn't know better I'd wonder if we're looking at a split and slightly inept local Labour party without strong leadership which feels like it's going backwards.
Am I on the right lines?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 23, 2022 13:26:07 GMT
I don't think Zarah Sultana has much to do with anything (not least because last night's result wasn't in her seat)
The previous Coventry byelection result since May wasn't great for Labour, but nowhere near as dismal as this.
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Post by kevinf on Sept 23, 2022 13:40:58 GMT
Coventry was dire for Labour. What's going on there? From a distance it looks like an unpopular council - the bin strikes might be over but they still happened. The only thing I know about Labour's campaigning there is that awful video from a couple of elections ago about the MP and Councillor candidates door-knocking and looking like idiots when they were being filmed. Then the likes of Zarah Sultana, who surprisingly seems to be sailing through re-selection. If I didn't know better I'd wonder if we're looking at a split and slightly inept local Labour party without strong leadership which feels like it's going backwards. Am I on the right lines? Not regarding Zarah Sultana, no. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 23, 2022 14:00:08 GMT
There’s clearly a trend going on in Selbourne, which up until the coalition was returning a full slate of Conservatives. Labour’s 2019 majority slipped to 57, the Tories took a seat by 99 in 2021 against the national trend, and only fell 35 short in May.
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Sept 23, 2022 14:43:53 GMT
The Coventry Telegraph are reporting that a local planning/green space/NIMBY issue was a big factor. The Tory was campaigning to “Save Coundon Wedge”, which I’m sure is much more of a beauty spot than its name suggests.
Also likely that the gain in 2021 and near miss in 2022 were a factor in giving the winner a boost, given she stood last time.
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