1930s German Elections are fair, open and democratic

[sirbenjamin]

What would the results have been in 1936 (presumably November 1933 wouldn't have happened) and how might it have changed the course of history?

[johnloony]

Hitler would have been outmanoeuvred, the Nazi Party would have dropped in support, and politics would have continued approximately “normally”. If there had still been some sort of crisis, a military dictatorship might have emerged and some sort of territorial expansion but only as far as Austria and the Rhineland but not Poland.

[DrW]

Aug 23, 2022 13:25:12 GMT sirbenjamin said:

What would the results have been in 1936 (presumably November 1933 wouldn't have happened) and how might it have changed the course of history?

Hindenburg, his advisors and most other prominent political figures on the right wanted a more authoritarian system of some kind - whether a monarchy, a more powerful presidency or a (quasi) military dictatorship. Under a right wing administration that is in a stronger position than that or Schleicher or Papen you may see electoral reform to give a majority bonus to the winning party and/or restriction of the franchise - which would probably lead to a National/ Fatherland Front style merger/alliance of the DNVP, the smaller right wing parties and at least part of the NSDAP. Potentially the Catholic Centre Party and Bavarian sister party too. I don’t know, however, who exactly it is that serves as a front man for this expanded Harzburg Front if it is to be an established conservative politician and not Hitler - maybe Schleicher and Bruning had they not both alienated Hindenburg. You would have to assume that the Communists and Social Democrats would be subject to some degree of repression in these circumstances.

However, if democracy continued in Germany then I think you would see a continuation of the trends seen in the November 1932 election on the right, namely Protestant, middle class voters returning from the NSDAP to the DNVP and the other right wing/liberal parties like the DVP and DDP. As unemployment decreased you would expect the Social Democrats to gain from the Communists. Election results in the later 30s, absent consolidation on the right, would look more like those in the 1920s, with the Social Democrats in the high 20s, DNVP high teens and a medley of parties including the Nazis, Centre and Communists behind them.

[uthacalthing]

Apologies, by genuine coincidence I came here to raise a similar but not at all similar question. It does not fit within this thread, so will be adjacent to it.