Post by Robert Waller on Aug 18, 2022 17:05:04 GMT
Delyn is not only a relatively obscure name for a constituency, but despite its apparent origin in the Welsh language it is an artificial one too. It was coined as recently as 1974, by combining the area’s two principal rivers, the Dee and the Alyn, when a name was sought for one of the new local government districts within the historic county of Flintshire and the new Clwyd. In fact an earlier suggestion was Alyn-Dee. It is true that Y Delyn is also Welsh for ‘the harp’, and that instrument appears in the borough’s coat of arms – but that is an ex post facto rationalization. Its neighbouring seat to the south is called Alyn & Deeside, so it could be argued that actually both constituencies in effect have the same etymology, which cannot be fully distinctive and therefore cannot be fully satisfactory. At least ‘Delyn’ has the virtue of being short.
The constituency lies in the very north-eastern tip of Wales, including the Dee estuary and rounding the Point of Ayr to take in a little of the northern Irish Sea coast. On its creation in 1983, Delyn included sections of both the always Tory West Flintshire (retained even in 1966) and solidly Labour East Flintshire (held in 1959, say). It was felt that it was going to be very much a marginal seat. Originally the West Flintshire section was larger, and the Conservative Keith Raffan won Delyn in 1983 and 1987; but on his retirement in 1992 Labour’s David Hanson seized it by just over 2,000 votes, and he retained it by more or less comfortable margins seven more times up to and including 2017. Hanson’s majority varied from 12,693 in 1997 to 2,272 in 2010. Then in 2019 he became one of the longest serving Labour MPs to be defeated, as the Conservative Rob Roberts overtook him by just 865 votes – behind Dennis Skinner (1970), only Richard Burden (Birmingham Northfield) of those defeated by a Tory matched his longevity, though there were two others of the 1992 intake who were no longer standing for their party of origin (Mike Gapes and Roger Godsiff).
It is easy to see why the seat was regarded as finely balanced at first. Labour did best in Flint, which is an industrial centre and even boasts some tower blocks, and in the working-class town of Holywell. Mold, which was the administrative and cultural headquarters of the county of Clwyd and now plays the same role for the restored authority of Flintshire, is more mixed politically; and the Conservatives did better in the seaside resort of Prestatyn and the rural hinterland, which included a number of villages amid the scenic Clwydian hills.
Then however the balance was shifted, as 12,000 voters were moved out of the constituency in 1997 into the new Vale of Clwyd seat, created as the Welsh Commission awarded an extra seat to north-east Wales. Crucially, most of these electors were in Prestatyn, along with its more Labour-voting suburb of Meliden. The reunification of Prestatyn, known to so many for its long-established Pontin’s holiday camp, with its neighbouring north coast resort of Rhyl, was logical enough. It did, however, ease Labour’s, and David Hanson’s task in holding Delyn continuously over a 25 year period. The relevance of this history for the future should become clear below.
In 2019, however, Delyn was one of no fewer than five Labour losses, out of six defences, in North Wales. It is true that round 54% of voters within this constituency had opted for ‘Leave’ in the 2016 referendum, and the Brexit party took nearly 2,000 votes and just saved their deposit in the subsequent general election heavily influenced by the delay to ‘Brexit’. But its views on Europe were not far different from the Welsh average and actually less strongly Leave than the neighbouring constituencies of Alyn and Deeside and Vale of Clwyd, yet the Labour share fell more in Delyn, so the defeat cannot be put down to the European issue alone, unless the Liberal Democrat share, which more than doubled here, actually reflects a protest against Labour’s havering by ‘Remainers'.
Labour do appear to have recovered their lead within Delyn. In the Senedd election of 2021, on identical boundaries to the current Westminster seat, Hannah Blythyn retained the seat with a majority of 3,711 or 14.1%, on a 47% turnout. In the most recent elections for Flintshire council, in May 2022,, although there is a very strong Independent representation, Labour actually returned more councillors than in Alyn and Deeside, where they held the parliamentary seat in December 2019. In Flint town they triumphed in all three wards: Coleshill & Trelawney, Oakenholt and Castle. In Holywell they won West and Central, though the latter by only one vote, and only lost in East (to an Independent). In the county town Mold, Labour polled 72% in East ward, and took all the other three (South, West and Broncoed) narrowly with 40-45% shares. They also won Leeswood and Brynford and Halkin.
There is one fly in the ointment in this soothing picture of Labour recovery. Reversing the situation back in 1997 when this part of Wales was actually given an extra seat, the forthcoming boundary changes see a drastic reduction in the number of Welsh Westminster constituencies from 40 to 32, due to the heavy over-representation from which it has benefited for many decades. (The Senedd is going in the opposite direction, likely to expand from 60 to 96). Therefore the electorate of Delyn has to be expanded, and what is proposed is in effect a reversal of what happened in 1997, with the return of the Prestatyn area from Vale of Clwyd, plus the transfer of Ruthin and two rural wards from Clwyd West. In the revised proposals of October 2022 it was also suggested that Flint and Bagillt should be transferred to Alyn & Deeside, and that the seat should be greatly extended to include Llangollen from the abolished Clwyd South. The seat would now be substantially different from Delyn and a new name was proposed, Clwyd East. It is estimated that the changes would have produced a notably larger notional Conservative majority in Clwyd East than Delyn in 2019 if these new boundaries had applied in December 2019.
However, all is far from lost for Labour. In the Denbighshire elections in May 2022 they did secure victories for seven councillors within the Prestatyn wards, compared with one Green, one Independent and only one Conservative (and this one finishing second to the Green in the double member Prestatyn Central, and only a single vote ahead of the Labour candidate). Meanwhile Ruthin’s three member representation was split between Plaid Cymru, Independent and Liberal Democrat, with the three Conservatives languishing far adrift at the foot of the results declaration list.
Labour need to regain this seat, however named, if they are to have any chance of returning to government at the next general election, whatever effect the boundary changes have, and on the evidence of the May 2022 elections within both the existing and proposed boundaries they look to have a good chance of doing so. The sitting Conservative MP is currently suspended from the whip, which may also have an effect. Devotees of the classic BBC Radio 4 series A History of the World in 100 Objects, by the former British Museum director Neil MacGregor, may remember one from this constituency – a cape made from the finest and thinnest of gold, probably for a young prince, over 3,500 years ago and found in 1833 in a burial mound in the Clwydian hills near Mold. One could say this fragile object is Old Gold from Mold. The question for Labour as we approach a quarter of the way into the 21st century CE may be framed as – is there electoral gold in ‘them thar hills’?
2011 Census
Age 65+ 18.8% 188/650
Owner-occupied 73.1% 118/650
Private rented 9.9% 582/650
Social rented 15.5% 334/650
White 98.8% 24/650
Black 0.1% 636/650
Asian 0.6% 620/650
Managerial & professional 28.9%
Routine & Semi-routine 30.1%
Employed in manufacturing 18.0% 14/650
Degree level 23.8% 330 /650
No qualifications 24.5% 270/650
Students 6.4% 404/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 72.0% 117/573
Private rented 12.7% 538/573
Social rented 15.4% 273/573
White 98.1%
Black 0.1%
Asian 0.7%
Managerial & professional 30.8% 320/573
Routine & Semi-routine 27.7% 153/573
Degree level 29.8% 341/573
No qualifications 18.7% 240/573
General election 2019: Delyn
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Rob Roberts 16,756 43.7 +2.6
Labour David Hanson 15,891 41.4 ―10.8
Liberal Democrats Andrew Parkhurst 2,346 6.1 +3.5
Brexit Party Nigel Williams 1,971 5.1 N/A
Plaid Cymru Paul Rowlinson 1,406 3.7 ―0.1
C Majority 865 2.3
Turnout 38,370 70.3 ―2.5
2019 Registered electors 54,552
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 6.7 Lab to C
The constituency lies in the very north-eastern tip of Wales, including the Dee estuary and rounding the Point of Ayr to take in a little of the northern Irish Sea coast. On its creation in 1983, Delyn included sections of both the always Tory West Flintshire (retained even in 1966) and solidly Labour East Flintshire (held in 1959, say). It was felt that it was going to be very much a marginal seat. Originally the West Flintshire section was larger, and the Conservative Keith Raffan won Delyn in 1983 and 1987; but on his retirement in 1992 Labour’s David Hanson seized it by just over 2,000 votes, and he retained it by more or less comfortable margins seven more times up to and including 2017. Hanson’s majority varied from 12,693 in 1997 to 2,272 in 2010. Then in 2019 he became one of the longest serving Labour MPs to be defeated, as the Conservative Rob Roberts overtook him by just 865 votes – behind Dennis Skinner (1970), only Richard Burden (Birmingham Northfield) of those defeated by a Tory matched his longevity, though there were two others of the 1992 intake who were no longer standing for their party of origin (Mike Gapes and Roger Godsiff).
It is easy to see why the seat was regarded as finely balanced at first. Labour did best in Flint, which is an industrial centre and even boasts some tower blocks, and in the working-class town of Holywell. Mold, which was the administrative and cultural headquarters of the county of Clwyd and now plays the same role for the restored authority of Flintshire, is more mixed politically; and the Conservatives did better in the seaside resort of Prestatyn and the rural hinterland, which included a number of villages amid the scenic Clwydian hills.
Then however the balance was shifted, as 12,000 voters were moved out of the constituency in 1997 into the new Vale of Clwyd seat, created as the Welsh Commission awarded an extra seat to north-east Wales. Crucially, most of these electors were in Prestatyn, along with its more Labour-voting suburb of Meliden. The reunification of Prestatyn, known to so many for its long-established Pontin’s holiday camp, with its neighbouring north coast resort of Rhyl, was logical enough. It did, however, ease Labour’s, and David Hanson’s task in holding Delyn continuously over a 25 year period. The relevance of this history for the future should become clear below.
In 2019, however, Delyn was one of no fewer than five Labour losses, out of six defences, in North Wales. It is true that round 54% of voters within this constituency had opted for ‘Leave’ in the 2016 referendum, and the Brexit party took nearly 2,000 votes and just saved their deposit in the subsequent general election heavily influenced by the delay to ‘Brexit’. But its views on Europe were not far different from the Welsh average and actually less strongly Leave than the neighbouring constituencies of Alyn and Deeside and Vale of Clwyd, yet the Labour share fell more in Delyn, so the defeat cannot be put down to the European issue alone, unless the Liberal Democrat share, which more than doubled here, actually reflects a protest against Labour’s havering by ‘Remainers'.
Labour do appear to have recovered their lead within Delyn. In the Senedd election of 2021, on identical boundaries to the current Westminster seat, Hannah Blythyn retained the seat with a majority of 3,711 or 14.1%, on a 47% turnout. In the most recent elections for Flintshire council, in May 2022,, although there is a very strong Independent representation, Labour actually returned more councillors than in Alyn and Deeside, where they held the parliamentary seat in December 2019. In Flint town they triumphed in all three wards: Coleshill & Trelawney, Oakenholt and Castle. In Holywell they won West and Central, though the latter by only one vote, and only lost in East (to an Independent). In the county town Mold, Labour polled 72% in East ward, and took all the other three (South, West and Broncoed) narrowly with 40-45% shares. They also won Leeswood and Brynford and Halkin.
There is one fly in the ointment in this soothing picture of Labour recovery. Reversing the situation back in 1997 when this part of Wales was actually given an extra seat, the forthcoming boundary changes see a drastic reduction in the number of Welsh Westminster constituencies from 40 to 32, due to the heavy over-representation from which it has benefited for many decades. (The Senedd is going in the opposite direction, likely to expand from 60 to 96). Therefore the electorate of Delyn has to be expanded, and what is proposed is in effect a reversal of what happened in 1997, with the return of the Prestatyn area from Vale of Clwyd, plus the transfer of Ruthin and two rural wards from Clwyd West. In the revised proposals of October 2022 it was also suggested that Flint and Bagillt should be transferred to Alyn & Deeside, and that the seat should be greatly extended to include Llangollen from the abolished Clwyd South. The seat would now be substantially different from Delyn and a new name was proposed, Clwyd East. It is estimated that the changes would have produced a notably larger notional Conservative majority in Clwyd East than Delyn in 2019 if these new boundaries had applied in December 2019.
However, all is far from lost for Labour. In the Denbighshire elections in May 2022 they did secure victories for seven councillors within the Prestatyn wards, compared with one Green, one Independent and only one Conservative (and this one finishing second to the Green in the double member Prestatyn Central, and only a single vote ahead of the Labour candidate). Meanwhile Ruthin’s three member representation was split between Plaid Cymru, Independent and Liberal Democrat, with the three Conservatives languishing far adrift at the foot of the results declaration list.
Labour need to regain this seat, however named, if they are to have any chance of returning to government at the next general election, whatever effect the boundary changes have, and on the evidence of the May 2022 elections within both the existing and proposed boundaries they look to have a good chance of doing so. The sitting Conservative MP is currently suspended from the whip, which may also have an effect. Devotees of the classic BBC Radio 4 series A History of the World in 100 Objects, by the former British Museum director Neil MacGregor, may remember one from this constituency – a cape made from the finest and thinnest of gold, probably for a young prince, over 3,500 years ago and found in 1833 in a burial mound in the Clwydian hills near Mold. One could say this fragile object is Old Gold from Mold. The question for Labour as we approach a quarter of the way into the 21st century CE may be framed as – is there electoral gold in ‘them thar hills’?
2011 Census
Age 65+ 18.8% 188/650
Owner-occupied 73.1% 118/650
Private rented 9.9% 582/650
Social rented 15.5% 334/650
White 98.8% 24/650
Black 0.1% 636/650
Asian 0.6% 620/650
Managerial & professional 28.9%
Routine & Semi-routine 30.1%
Employed in manufacturing 18.0% 14/650
Degree level 23.8% 330 /650
No qualifications 24.5% 270/650
Students 6.4% 404/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 72.0% 117/573
Private rented 12.7% 538/573
Social rented 15.4% 273/573
White 98.1%
Black 0.1%
Asian 0.7%
Managerial & professional 30.8% 320/573
Routine & Semi-routine 27.7% 153/573
Degree level 29.8% 341/573
No qualifications 18.7% 240/573
General election 2019: Delyn
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Rob Roberts 16,756 43.7 +2.6
Labour David Hanson 15,891 41.4 ―10.8
Liberal Democrats Andrew Parkhurst 2,346 6.1 +3.5
Brexit Party Nigel Williams 1,971 5.1 N/A
Plaid Cymru Paul Rowlinson 1,406 3.7 ―0.1
C Majority 865 2.3
Turnout 38,370 70.3 ―2.5
2019 Registered electors 54,552
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 6.7 Lab to C
