maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299 
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Post by maxque on Sept 2, 2022 0:05:19 GMT
So two Tory candidates vying to be the last Councillor elected under Boris as PM. So, the last Tories elected under Boris were Karen Howkins (Spelthorne) and Rick Deller (Wychavon) on August 11th. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 2, 2022 5:55:29 GMT
I will take the Redditch result as a reinforcement of my argument against a "progressive alliance".
The Lib Dems should not stand down candidates in favour of Labour, because to defeat the Tories you need their some of their 2019 voters to actively vote somewhere other than Tory.
And the most likely place for that is the Lib Dems.
Re-arranging the deckchairs of last time's losers is not enough.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 2, 2022 6:13:15 GMT
I will take the Redditch result as a reinforcement of my argument against a "progressive alliance". The Lib Dems should not stand down candidates in favour of Labour, because to defeat the Tories you need their some of their 2019 voters to actively vote somewhere other than Tory. And the most likely place for that is the Lib Dems. Re-arranging the deckchairs of last time's losers is not enough. I think that is absolutely correct for somewhere like Redditch. It will not be the correct argument for everywhere. Trick is to work out which argument applies where. |
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Post by andykernow on Sept 2, 2022 6:20:37 GMT
I think it depends on the particular authority. In Cornwall, the lack of a Progressive Alliance effectively gifted the Conservatives 21 seats which would have probably gone to the LibDems/Green/Lab/MK/Ind and therefore gave the Tories a decent majority
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Post by andykernow on Sept 2, 2022 6:31:35 GMT
Launceston South and Lanivet are two great examples where non Tory and Non Lib Dem candidates effectively gifted the seat to the Tories. In Launceston South the Tory won by just 3 votes with Labour and Greens bringing in a combined 217 votes, a good proportion of which would have gone to the Lib Dem. In Lanivet the same with the Tories winning by 7 with the Green/Labour vote of 338. In both cases Lib Dems lost the seats they had held for 12 years. In places like St Columb, St Mewan, and Crowan one non Tory candidate saw the seat either retained or won by them against strong Conservative campaigning.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 2, 2022 6:59:56 GMT
Redditch: Headless Cross & Oakenshaw - Labour gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 | | Labour | 767 | 41.9% | +1.5% | +17.7% | +20.1% | +6.6% | | Conservative | 686 | 37.5% | -12.0% | -25.4% | -4.4% | -13.5% | | Liberal Democrat | 274 | 15.0% | +5.0% | +9.3% | +7.7% | from nowhere | | Green | 102 | 5.6% | from nowhere | -1.6% | -4.9% | -1.3% | | UKIP |
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| -18.5% | -6.8% | | Total votes | 1,829 |
| 86% | 80% | 91% | 83% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 6¾% since May, 21½% since 2021, 12¼% since 2019 and 10% since 2018 Council now: 19 Conservative, 8 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Independent Worcestershire: Arrow Valley West - Labour gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 "top" | since 2021 "average" | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | | Labour | 1,342 | 53.7% | +16.4% | +17.4% | +11.2% | +10.1% | | Conservative | 893 | 35.7% | -14.3% | -15.5% | +1.3% | +2.5% | | Green | 146 | 5.8% | -1.2% | -0.9% | +2.0% | +2.3% | | Liberal Democrat | 120 | 4.8% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.5% | -1.1% | | UKIP |
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| -10.2% | -10.9% | | Independent |
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| -2.6% | -2.8% | | Total votes | 2,501 |
| 57% | 62% | 55% | 58% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 15¼% / 16½% since 2021 and 5% / 3¾% since 2017 Council now: 44 Conservative, 4 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Green, 2 Independent I can't make your figures work for Headless Cross change from May? No Lb Dem candidate in May so how only up 5%? |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Sept 2, 2022 7:38:47 GMT
GWBWI:
Lab +108
LDm +14
Grn -4
Con -129
ASV:
Lab +1.8
LDm +0.2
Grn -0.1
Con -2.2
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 2, 2022 8:12:01 GMT
Redditch: Headless Cross & Oakenshaw - Labour gain from Conservative
corrected previously had the Green 2022 votes shown as Liberal Democrat | Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 | | Labour | 767 | 41.9% | +1.5% | +17.7% | +20.1% | +6.6% | | Conservative | 686 | 37.5% | -12.0% | -25.4% | -4.4% | -13.5% | | Liberal Democrat | 274 | 15.0% | from nowhere | +9.3% | +7.7% | from nowhere | | Green | 102 | 5.6% | -4.4% | -1.6% | -4.9% | -1.3% | | UKIP |
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| -18.5% | -6.8% | | Total votes | 1,829 |
| 86% | 80% | 91% | 83% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 6¾% since May, 21½% since 2021, 12¼% since 2019 and 10% since 2018 Council now: 19 Conservative, 8 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Independent Worcestershire: Arrow Valley West - Labour gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 "top" | since 2021 "average" | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | | Labour | 1,342 | 53.7% | +16.4% | +17.4% | +11.2% | +10.1% | | Conservative | 893 | 35.7% | -14.3% | -15.5% | +1.3% | +2.5% | | Green | 146 | 5.8% | -1.2% | -0.9% | +2.0% | +2.3% | | Liberal Democrat | 120 | 4.8% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -1.5% | -1.1% | | UKIP |
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| -10.2% | -10.9% | | Independent |
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| -2.6% | -2.8% | | Total votes | 2,501 |
| 57% | 62% | 55% | 58% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 15¼% / 16½% since 2021 and 5% / 3¾% since 2017 Council now: 44 Conservative, 4 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Green, 2 Independent
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Post by John Chanin on Sept 2, 2022 8:49:47 GMT
That’s a bad loss for the Conservatives in Headless Cross. While the eastern and central wards are notoriously volatile, the 3 suburban wards to the south-west (plus the rural addition) have been continuously Conservative this century.
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Post by batman on Sept 2, 2022 9:16:14 GMT
That’s a bad loss for the Conservatives in Headless Cross. While the eastern and central wards are notoriously volatile, the 3 suburban wards to the south-west (plus the rural addition) have been continuously Conservative this century. I gather that the nearest predecessor ward, which had a different name, was last won by Labour in 1997. Even in the 1997 general election I remember that it was quite a job for Labour to get the undecideds on board and although Jacqui Smith won comfortably enough in the end there was a feeling on the ground that the Tories were not out of it until quite late on - at least, that's what I heard on the media and from party sources. Redditch is generally not easy territory for Labour though it can look fairly good in good years. |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 2, 2022 10:00:52 GMT
That’s a bad loss for the Conservatives in Headless Cross. While the eastern and central wards are notoriously volatile, the 3 suburban wards to the south-west (plus the rural addition) have been continuously Conservative this century. I gather that the nearest predecessor ward, which had a different name, was last won by Labour in 1997. Even in the 1997 general election I remember that it was quite a job for Labour to get the undecideds on board and although Jacqui Smith won comfortably enough in the end there was a feeling on the ground that the Tories were not out of it until quite late on - at least, that's what I heard on the media and from party sources. Redditch is generally not easy territory for Labour though it can look fairly good in good years. It’s pretty difficult to compare predecessor wards pre 2004 as Headless Cross and Oakenshaw was the 12th and extra ward created that year and the only new ward name. It took territory from 5 existing wards- Central, Crabbs Cross, Greenlands, Lodge Park and West. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 2, 2022 10:01:05 GMT
That’s a bad loss for the Conservatives in Headless Cross. While the eastern and central wards are notoriously volatile, the 3 suburban wards to the south-west (plus the rural addition) have been continuously Conservative this century. Could be that the Tories there at the moment are both Headless and Cross. |
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
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Post by mrtoad on Sept 2, 2022 10:02:17 GMT
There's no particularly close predecessor to Headless Cross & Oakenshaw - it was created from parts of five wards in the review taking effect in 2004 s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/lgbce/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/9450/redditchf_9028-7704__e__.pdf Labour would certainly have won it in 1995 (even West ward narrowly went Labour then) but because of the volatility of results in Redditch and the way that not every ward is up for election every year it's hard to come to conclusions for other elections. I think as far as one can tell Labour's performance last night was a little below the 1995 all time peak but bears comparison with other very strong Labour showings. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 2, 2022 10:21:58 GMT
Great name for a ward if nothing else.
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 2, 2022 10:26:23 GMT
Launceston South and Lanivet are two great examples where non Tory and Non Lib Dem candidates effectively gifted the seat to the Tories. In Launceston South the Tory won by just 3 votes with Labour and Greens bringing in a combined 217 votes, a good proportion of which would have gone to the Lib Dem. In Lanivet the same with the Tories winning by 7 with the Green/Labour vote of 338. In both cases Lib Dems lost the seats they had held for 12 years. In places like St Columb, St Mewan, and Crowan one non Tory candidate saw the seat either retained or won by them against strong Conservative campaigning. well the argument was about taking seats off the Tories, not defences. (And arguably about byelections, and arguably not applicable to Labour candidates in most areas anyways.) |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 2, 2022 10:32:27 GMT
I did say something last week about a few winnable contests for Labour coming up after a dearth of them in August  Now we wait to see what, if any, difference a new Tory PM will make to this sort of thing. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 2, 2022 10:41:20 GMT
That’s a bad loss for the Conservatives in Headless Cross. While the eastern and central wards are notoriously volatile, the 3 suburban wards to the south-west (plus the rural addition) have been continuously Conservative this century. Could be that the Tories there at the moment are both Headless and Cross.  |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 2, 2022 20:59:48 GMT
Thanking you both I email every Sunday if they don't show it on their web pages. Sadly it is a item that they don't have to do, I can understand the venue to be kept secret but I think they should. My MP Craig Williams is on the case as Cloe Smith was moved off she agreed with me sowith it be published soon. Some council's are very forthcoming but a few it's like getting into Fort Knox and asking for a password. Glad I help out It's probably just coincidental, but over last few weeks or so there does seem to have been a noticeable improvement in more councils having the SOPN published promptly (ie Friday evening rather than the middle of the afternoon on Monday). Probably won't last though... And Newark & Sherwood have broken the streak this week... |
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