Post by Robert Waller on Jul 30, 2022 10:48:57 GMT
The former Guardian deputy editor and subsequently travel writer David McKie has long argued that Essex should in fact constitute two counties rather than one. For example, as he declared in Great British Bus Journeys (2006, a book heartily to be recommended to certain members of this forum), “my brief immersion in Saffron Walden and the dishy villages around it has brought me back to an existential question that had troubled me for two decades. There is still only one county of Essex although it has long been plain that there ought to be two: the Essex of genteel country towns and thatch and Thaxted and windmills and clapboard and sleepy villages clustered around gorgeous greens; and the Essex of arterial roads and roadhouses and spectacular hairdos and vertiginous cleavages and Basildon and Southend.” Essentially the divide would lie along the SW / NE axis of the A12 from Romford towards Colchester, with certain exceptions like the area around Maldon and, perhaps, the town of Braintree.
The only constituency to be named after a spice, Saffron Walden is definitely in McKie’s more favoured section, covering the most rural and pleasant scenery in Essex, its north-western quadrant. Its eponymous town was originally known as Magna Walden or Chipping Walden, but the wide commercial growth of the saffron crocus led to a new name by the 1540s. Saffron is, apparently used for medicines, as a condiment, in perfume, as an expensive yellow dye, and as an aphrodisiac. Less exotically, saffron was mainly replaced by malt and barley production here by the end of the 18th century. This is the largest seat in area in the county and the only one which still reaches the list of the country’s 130 most agricultural seats. It includes the small towns of Saffron Walden (population 15,000 in 2011), Great Dunmow (9,000) and Thaxted (3,000) and over a hundred villages such as Stansted Mountfitchet, Wendens Ambo, Ugley, Leaden Roding, Wimbish Green, Wicken Bonhunt and Molehill Green. The peace is disturbed by the presence of Stansted Airport. In general, however, the ambience is far gentler than that in the rest of busy, bustling, hard-driving Essex; and so is the politics.
Not only is Saffron Walden a safe Conservative seat that has not been won by any other party since Cecil Beck retained it as a Lloyd George coalition Liberal in 1918, but there was a long tradition of moderate or liberal Toryism, as typified by R.A.Butler, the MP here from 1929 to 1965, then Peter Kirk (1965-77) and Alan Haselhurst (1977-2017). When Haselhurst retired two weeks short of his 80th birthday, there had been just three Saffron Walden MPs in 88 years. His successor is a rather different figure, Kemi Badenoch, one of the contenders for the party leadership and position of Prime Minister in 2022, but she has inherited calm prospects in the seat and secured a majority of 27,594 in December 2019, the 11th largest of the 365 seats they won - and this even after a small swing to the Liberal Democrats, probably accounted for by the fact that (unlike many other parts of Essex) this seat only voted Leave by around 51-49 in 2016.
The reasons for the Conservative hegemony in parliamentary contests are not hard to find. This seat was over 96% white in 2011, very high for a seat in the South East region. It is in the top quartile of owner occupiers, has more than twice as many in the professional and managerial socio-economic groups than working class routine and semi-routine, and a number of indictors illustrate its affluence. It is in the top three out of 650 seats for multiple car ownership (over three per household). In figures derived from other sources than the census, the Saffron Walden constituency was in the lowest thirty seats for financial hardship or premature mortality. It is in the top quarter for those educated to at least degree level and the bottom quarter of those with no educational qualifications. Finally, Essex (like the Eastern region as a whole) is a part of the land with a strong Conservative tradition, and that applies to both of our hypothetical halves of the county.
There is of course some dissent from the Tory consensus at local level. Most of the constituency is situated in the district of Uttlesford, which currently has a massive Residents/Independent majority, with only a handful of party representatives such as Greens in the Audley and Shire wards of Saffron Walden town and Takeley, and Liberal Democrats in Stansted wards and in Stort Valley. In Essex county elections, however, there is more major party success. In May 2021, for example, the Conservatives narrowly beat the Residents in Dunmow and Stansted divisions, but were themselves edged out in Thaxted and more clearly in Saffron Walden town. This seat does also currently contain some territory outside Uttlesford in the shape of the Writtle and Broomfield section of the city of Chelmsford authority, and this division produced a massive Tory victory in 2021, by over four to one against the Liberal Democrats in a distant second place.
As the present Boundary Commission started its work, Saffron Walden had an electorate well above quota at over 86,000. Also, although Essex itself did not qualify for an extra seat of its own, when paired with its neighbour to the north, Suffolk, originally it was suggested a new seat could and should be created: Haverhill and Halstead which was to take substantial sections from Braintree (Essex) and West Suffolk. Therefore other major boundary change also had to be proposed. Saffron Walden was recommended to lose the four City of Chelmsford wards of Writtle, Chelmsford Rural West, Broomfield & The Walthams, and Boreham & The Leighs, to be included in the Braintree constituency. In exchange, it would gain from the existing Brentwood and Ongar constituency the two wards of Moreton & Fyfield, and High Ongar, Willingale & The Rodings within Epping Forest district council. As a result the name of Ongar would disappear from a seat title, unless added to Saffron Walden after the Inquiry process.
Then in November 2022 all changed again as in the Boundary Commission's revised proposals for the Eastern region the idea of crossing the Essex/Suffolk border was scrapped in favour of a Norfolk/Suffolk pairing along the Waveney valley. This mean that far less change was needed in the boundaries of Saffron Walden. The four 'Chelmsford' wards would now be retained, and the two wards from Bentwood & Ongar would no longer ne needed. This means that Ongar could keep its place in that constituency name. Saffron Walden does still need to lose some voters, though, and the revise proposals recommended that these should be in the shape of the Uttlesford district wards of Broad Oak & The Hallingburys and Hatfield Heath, transferred to Harlow, and The Sampfords, and Felsted & Stebbing wards would be included in an alternatively configured Braintree constituency - these changes both meaning the loss of around 5,000 electors to the other two seats.
The new Saffron Walden would thus be ten thousand electors smaller, but just as safe Conservative – and just as firmly belonging to the characteristics of David McKie’s ‘North Essex’. It is true that there was at one time a renowned ‘Red Vicar’ of Thaxted, Conrad Noel, admirer of Trotsky and founder of both the British Socialist Party and Catholic Crusade, presented to the living in 1910 by Daisy Countess of Warwick (another socialist) and notorious for hanging the Red Flag and the banner of Sinn Fein in St John’s Church Thaxted. But his very untypicality is the cause of that notoriety. It would be fanciful to see any progression from the Red Vicar through the ‘pink Toryism’ and consensus views of the three long serving MPs to the more trenchant Conservatism of the pro-Brexit current member, but there can be little doubt that Saffron Walden will present few barriers to any further ambitions Kemi Badenoch may harbour.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 17.8% 250/650
Owner-occupied 72.0% 161/650
Private rented 12.4% 436/650
Social rented 13.1% 431/650
White 96.4% 275/650
Black 0.6% 351/650
Asian 1.6% 399/650
Managerial & professional 40.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 18.5%
3 cars or more household 10.7% 3/650
4 cars or more household 5.0% 2/650
Degree level 31.3% 154/650
No qualifications 18.4% 519/650
Students 6.7 % 348/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 72.5% 103/573
Private rented 13.8% 491/573
Social rented 13.7% 351/573
White 93.5%
Black 1,1%
Asian 2.5%
Managerial & professional 42.3% 67/573
Routine & Semi-routine 16.7% 493/573
Degree level 36.1% 171/573
No qualifications 14.1% 470/573
General Election 2019: Saffron Walden
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Kemi Badenoch 39,714 63.0 +1.2
Liberal Democrats Mike Hibbs 12,120 19.2 +5.2
Labour Thomas Van De Bilt 8,305 13.2 -7.6
Green Coby Wing 2,947 4.7 New
C Majority 27,594 43.7 +2.8
2019 Electorate 87,017
Turnout 63,086 72.5 -0.6
Conservative hold
Swing 2.0 C to LD
The only constituency to be named after a spice, Saffron Walden is definitely in McKie’s more favoured section, covering the most rural and pleasant scenery in Essex, its north-western quadrant. Its eponymous town was originally known as Magna Walden or Chipping Walden, but the wide commercial growth of the saffron crocus led to a new name by the 1540s. Saffron is, apparently used for medicines, as a condiment, in perfume, as an expensive yellow dye, and as an aphrodisiac. Less exotically, saffron was mainly replaced by malt and barley production here by the end of the 18th century. This is the largest seat in area in the county and the only one which still reaches the list of the country’s 130 most agricultural seats. It includes the small towns of Saffron Walden (population 15,000 in 2011), Great Dunmow (9,000) and Thaxted (3,000) and over a hundred villages such as Stansted Mountfitchet, Wendens Ambo, Ugley, Leaden Roding, Wimbish Green, Wicken Bonhunt and Molehill Green. The peace is disturbed by the presence of Stansted Airport. In general, however, the ambience is far gentler than that in the rest of busy, bustling, hard-driving Essex; and so is the politics.
Not only is Saffron Walden a safe Conservative seat that has not been won by any other party since Cecil Beck retained it as a Lloyd George coalition Liberal in 1918, but there was a long tradition of moderate or liberal Toryism, as typified by R.A.Butler, the MP here from 1929 to 1965, then Peter Kirk (1965-77) and Alan Haselhurst (1977-2017). When Haselhurst retired two weeks short of his 80th birthday, there had been just three Saffron Walden MPs in 88 years. His successor is a rather different figure, Kemi Badenoch, one of the contenders for the party leadership and position of Prime Minister in 2022, but she has inherited calm prospects in the seat and secured a majority of 27,594 in December 2019, the 11th largest of the 365 seats they won - and this even after a small swing to the Liberal Democrats, probably accounted for by the fact that (unlike many other parts of Essex) this seat only voted Leave by around 51-49 in 2016.
The reasons for the Conservative hegemony in parliamentary contests are not hard to find. This seat was over 96% white in 2011, very high for a seat in the South East region. It is in the top quartile of owner occupiers, has more than twice as many in the professional and managerial socio-economic groups than working class routine and semi-routine, and a number of indictors illustrate its affluence. It is in the top three out of 650 seats for multiple car ownership (over three per household). In figures derived from other sources than the census, the Saffron Walden constituency was in the lowest thirty seats for financial hardship or premature mortality. It is in the top quarter for those educated to at least degree level and the bottom quarter of those with no educational qualifications. Finally, Essex (like the Eastern region as a whole) is a part of the land with a strong Conservative tradition, and that applies to both of our hypothetical halves of the county.
There is of course some dissent from the Tory consensus at local level. Most of the constituency is situated in the district of Uttlesford, which currently has a massive Residents/Independent majority, with only a handful of party representatives such as Greens in the Audley and Shire wards of Saffron Walden town and Takeley, and Liberal Democrats in Stansted wards and in Stort Valley. In Essex county elections, however, there is more major party success. In May 2021, for example, the Conservatives narrowly beat the Residents in Dunmow and Stansted divisions, but were themselves edged out in Thaxted and more clearly in Saffron Walden town. This seat does also currently contain some territory outside Uttlesford in the shape of the Writtle and Broomfield section of the city of Chelmsford authority, and this division produced a massive Tory victory in 2021, by over four to one against the Liberal Democrats in a distant second place.
As the present Boundary Commission started its work, Saffron Walden had an electorate well above quota at over 86,000. Also, although Essex itself did not qualify for an extra seat of its own, when paired with its neighbour to the north, Suffolk, originally it was suggested a new seat could and should be created: Haverhill and Halstead which was to take substantial sections from Braintree (Essex) and West Suffolk. Therefore other major boundary change also had to be proposed. Saffron Walden was recommended to lose the four City of Chelmsford wards of Writtle, Chelmsford Rural West, Broomfield & The Walthams, and Boreham & The Leighs, to be included in the Braintree constituency. In exchange, it would gain from the existing Brentwood and Ongar constituency the two wards of Moreton & Fyfield, and High Ongar, Willingale & The Rodings within Epping Forest district council. As a result the name of Ongar would disappear from a seat title, unless added to Saffron Walden after the Inquiry process.
Then in November 2022 all changed again as in the Boundary Commission's revised proposals for the Eastern region the idea of crossing the Essex/Suffolk border was scrapped in favour of a Norfolk/Suffolk pairing along the Waveney valley. This mean that far less change was needed in the boundaries of Saffron Walden. The four 'Chelmsford' wards would now be retained, and the two wards from Bentwood & Ongar would no longer ne needed. This means that Ongar could keep its place in that constituency name. Saffron Walden does still need to lose some voters, though, and the revise proposals recommended that these should be in the shape of the Uttlesford district wards of Broad Oak & The Hallingburys and Hatfield Heath, transferred to Harlow, and The Sampfords, and Felsted & Stebbing wards would be included in an alternatively configured Braintree constituency - these changes both meaning the loss of around 5,000 electors to the other two seats.
The new Saffron Walden would thus be ten thousand electors smaller, but just as safe Conservative – and just as firmly belonging to the characteristics of David McKie’s ‘North Essex’. It is true that there was at one time a renowned ‘Red Vicar’ of Thaxted, Conrad Noel, admirer of Trotsky and founder of both the British Socialist Party and Catholic Crusade, presented to the living in 1910 by Daisy Countess of Warwick (another socialist) and notorious for hanging the Red Flag and the banner of Sinn Fein in St John’s Church Thaxted. But his very untypicality is the cause of that notoriety. It would be fanciful to see any progression from the Red Vicar through the ‘pink Toryism’ and consensus views of the three long serving MPs to the more trenchant Conservatism of the pro-Brexit current member, but there can be little doubt that Saffron Walden will present few barriers to any further ambitions Kemi Badenoch may harbour.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 17.8% 250/650
Owner-occupied 72.0% 161/650
Private rented 12.4% 436/650
Social rented 13.1% 431/650
White 96.4% 275/650
Black 0.6% 351/650
Asian 1.6% 399/650
Managerial & professional 40.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 18.5%
3 cars or more household 10.7% 3/650
4 cars or more household 5.0% 2/650
Degree level 31.3% 154/650
No qualifications 18.4% 519/650
Students 6.7 % 348/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 72.5% 103/573
Private rented 13.8% 491/573
Social rented 13.7% 351/573
White 93.5%
Black 1,1%
Asian 2.5%
Managerial & professional 42.3% 67/573
Routine & Semi-routine 16.7% 493/573
Degree level 36.1% 171/573
No qualifications 14.1% 470/573
General Election 2019: Saffron Walden
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Kemi Badenoch 39,714 63.0 +1.2
Liberal Democrats Mike Hibbs 12,120 19.2 +5.2
Labour Thomas Van De Bilt 8,305 13.2 -7.6
Green Coby Wing 2,947 4.7 New
C Majority 27,594 43.7 +2.8
2019 Electorate 87,017
Turnout 63,086 72.5 -0.6
Conservative hold
Swing 2.0 C to LD
