Post by Robert Waller on Jul 24, 2022 22:29:15 GMT
At the base of the Wirral peninsula, the Ellesmere Port and Neston constituency is squeezed between the muddy, swampy estuary of the Dee and the River Mersey, itself bulging to a width of near four miles opposite John Lennon Airport. This is one of Britain’s most functional, industrial landscapes. By the Mersey can be found the massive complex of the Essar (Shell until 2011) oil refinery at Stanlow, the second largest in the UK after Fawley on Southampton Water. Vauxhall Motors, long the representative of General Motors in Britain but now owned by the Stelantis conglomerate, have had a major factory at the north end of Ellesmere Port since 1962, now their only car production centre operational in Britain following the move to focus on commercial vehicles at their Luton headquarters. There are docks, paper-works, oil depots, sewage works, fertiliser factories and many other concerns. Chimneys and flares overshadow Ellesmere Port, a town created by the industrial revolution and the Manchester Ship Canal. Study of old fashioned Ordnance Survey products or the more modern technology of Google maps reveals just how much the terrain in this seat is influenced by industrial development. Driving south down the M53 then taking the M56 east of Ellesmere Port past the Stanlow oil storage tanks can remind one of the dramatic finale of the classic James Cagney film White Heat.
Not surprisingly perhaps from this description, Ellesmere Port and Neston now appears to be a safe Labour seat. Justin Madders was returned with a majority of over 8,750 even in the ‘Boris year’ of 2019. However this was not always so, and in several ways does need further explanation. Created from the Bebington & Ellesmere Port and Wirral divisions, in its first two contests in 1983 and 1987 Ellesmere Port and Neston seemed to be a Tory marginal; indeed it actually started in 1983 with a Conservative majority of over 7,000 for Mike Woodcock. Then Andrew Miller made a gain for Labour in 1992, by less than 2,000, before the Blair tidal surge, which has never really ebbed, unlike in so many other parts of Britain. The seat is clearly on a secular trend away from the Tories.
Yet many of its characteristics do not account for this direction of development. This is a predominantly owner occupied constituency: at over 72% of the housing stock, it lies in the top quartile. There are more professional and managerial workers than routine and semi-routine, and more with education to at least degree level than with no qualifications. The seat was still nearly 98% white at the time of the most recently available Census figures. The population is somewhat more elderly than average. As well as the rather dour Ellesmere Port town (population around 61,000), the seat includes south Wirral villages such as Willaston and Thornton and the small town of Neston (15,000) near the Dee marshes, both of which have a high proportion of commuters to Merseyside and Chester. It currently extends as far east as Elton beyond the Stanlow complex, and as far south as far as the village of Mickle Trafford, nowhere near the borough of that name but rather situated just north east of Chester. Neston is essentially mainly middle class, especially its western suburb of Parkgate along with Ness and Burton to the south, and was traditionally inclined to the Conservatives; however this has no longer been the case in recent years.
In the Chester West and Chester council elections of May 2019 Labour beat the Tories by 62%-38% in a straight fight in Neston ward, and narrowly shaded Little Neston too. In up-market (over 50% professional/managerial) Parkgate an Independent won easily. Meanwhile Labour were well ahead in all the Ellesmere Port wards, polling 67% even in Strawberry, where over nine out of ten of the relatively new housing is owner occupied, 61% in Whitby Groves and 62% in Whitby Park (also overwhelmingly owner occupied), 63% in Netherpool near the Vauxhall factory, and, coming to the areas with more social rented housing, 72% (top candidate) in Central & Grange, and no less than 83% in Wolverham. The Tories only won in Gowy Rural and in Willaston & Thornton.
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What explains the pro-Labour movement over the decades affecting Ellesmere Port and Neston (and this was hardly reversed in December 2019 even though this seat is estimated to have voted 58% to Leave the EU in 2016)? The answer is the same as that regarding the City of Chester seat and even Weaver Vale. Although administratively entirely in Cheshire at the moment this constituency is very much within the economic and political orbit of Merseyside, frankly a disaster zone for the Tories for decades.
In the proposed boundary changes, this constituency will become even more associated with ‘Merseyside’. As the metropolitan borough of Wirral’s electorate cannot justify the retention of its four current seats, and as the Boundary Commission has expressed it unwillingness (this time) to suggest a cross-river seat including parts of the city of Liverpool, the only alternative was to link Cheshire West and Chester with Wirral. The initially proposed Ellesmere Port seat would include two wards from the current South Wirral: Eastham and Bromborough, with over 23,000 electors. Altogether it would include 68% of EP & Neston and 40% of South Wirral. To a large extent, this actually recreates the Bebington & Ellesmere Port seat that existed in the 1974-83 period – both Bromborough and Eastham were included in the former Bebington municipal borough. Meanwhile both Neston and the Gowy Rural area would be removed, the former to a new Chester North and Neston constituency, and the latter to Runcorn & Helsby. In the revised proposals of November 2022 the Commission retained the boundaries initially suggested, but changed the name to Ellesmere Port and Bromborough to acknowledge the presence of the Wirral section along with that in Cheshire.
Thus the new seat would more tightly follow the west bank of the Mersey. In recent local elections such as those of May 2022, Bromborough has been solidly won by Labour and Eastham by the Liberal Democrats. However as South Wirral as a whole has been swinging strongly to Labour in the long term, the new Ellesmere Port is likely to be a safe seat, with a notional majority for December 2019 well into five figures. Chester North and Neston looks closer, but with Labour still ahead by at least 6,000 in a hypothetical 2019 contest.
It is no secret that Boris Johnson was not Merseyside’s favourite politician. However it would be foolish for any Conservative to hope that this sub region will show any more favour to his successor in 2024 or whenever the next general election takes place; and the new Ellesmere Port will be more 'Merseyside' still than the current version, both literally and figuratively. The Tories might not shout ‘Top of the world, Ma!’ like James Cagney in White Heat, but their hopes will surely crash and burn here.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 18.6% 200/650
Owner-occupied 72.2% 157/650
Private rented 9.2 % 606 /650
Social rented 16.9% 290 /650
White 97.8% 149/650
Black 0.2% 527/650
Asian 1.0% 519/650
Managerial & professional 30.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 29.0%
Degree level 23.7% 386/650
No qualifications 22.9% 329/650
Students 6.6% 360/650
[b
2021 Census[/b]
Owner occupied 69.7% 181/573
Private rented 13.8% 492/573
Social rented 16.6% 233/573
White 96.2%
Black 0.4%
Asian 1.6%
Managerial & professional 31.6% 296/573
Routine & Semi-routine 27.2% 170/573
Degree level 30.0% 332/573
No qualifications 17.4% 317/573
General Election 2019: Ellesmere Port and Neston
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Justin Madders 26,001 53.3 –5.9
Conservative Alison Rodwell 17,237 35.4 –1.4
Liberal Democrats Ed Gough 2,406 4.9 +3.1
Brexit Party Christopher Stevens 2,138 4.4 New
Green Chris Copeman 964 2.0 +1.3
Lab Majority 8,764 18.0 –4.5
2019 electorate 70,327
Turnout 46,746 69.3 –4.9
Labour hold
Swing 2.2 Lab to C
Not surprisingly perhaps from this description, Ellesmere Port and Neston now appears to be a safe Labour seat. Justin Madders was returned with a majority of over 8,750 even in the ‘Boris year’ of 2019. However this was not always so, and in several ways does need further explanation. Created from the Bebington & Ellesmere Port and Wirral divisions, in its first two contests in 1983 and 1987 Ellesmere Port and Neston seemed to be a Tory marginal; indeed it actually started in 1983 with a Conservative majority of over 7,000 for Mike Woodcock. Then Andrew Miller made a gain for Labour in 1992, by less than 2,000, before the Blair tidal surge, which has never really ebbed, unlike in so many other parts of Britain. The seat is clearly on a secular trend away from the Tories.
Yet many of its characteristics do not account for this direction of development. This is a predominantly owner occupied constituency: at over 72% of the housing stock, it lies in the top quartile. There are more professional and managerial workers than routine and semi-routine, and more with education to at least degree level than with no qualifications. The seat was still nearly 98% white at the time of the most recently available Census figures. The population is somewhat more elderly than average. As well as the rather dour Ellesmere Port town (population around 61,000), the seat includes south Wirral villages such as Willaston and Thornton and the small town of Neston (15,000) near the Dee marshes, both of which have a high proportion of commuters to Merseyside and Chester. It currently extends as far east as Elton beyond the Stanlow complex, and as far south as far as the village of Mickle Trafford, nowhere near the borough of that name but rather situated just north east of Chester. Neston is essentially mainly middle class, especially its western suburb of Parkgate along with Ness and Burton to the south, and was traditionally inclined to the Conservatives; however this has no longer been the case in recent years.
In the Chester West and Chester council elections of May 2019 Labour beat the Tories by 62%-38% in a straight fight in Neston ward, and narrowly shaded Little Neston too. In up-market (over 50% professional/managerial) Parkgate an Independent won easily. Meanwhile Labour were well ahead in all the Ellesmere Port wards, polling 67% even in Strawberry, where over nine out of ten of the relatively new housing is owner occupied, 61% in Whitby Groves and 62% in Whitby Park (also overwhelmingly owner occupied), 63% in Netherpool near the Vauxhall factory, and, coming to the areas with more social rented housing, 72% (top candidate) in Central & Grange, and no less than 83% in Wolverham. The Tories only won in Gowy Rural and in Willaston & Thornton.
.
What explains the pro-Labour movement over the decades affecting Ellesmere Port and Neston (and this was hardly reversed in December 2019 even though this seat is estimated to have voted 58% to Leave the EU in 2016)? The answer is the same as that regarding the City of Chester seat and even Weaver Vale. Although administratively entirely in Cheshire at the moment this constituency is very much within the economic and political orbit of Merseyside, frankly a disaster zone for the Tories for decades.
In the proposed boundary changes, this constituency will become even more associated with ‘Merseyside’. As the metropolitan borough of Wirral’s electorate cannot justify the retention of its four current seats, and as the Boundary Commission has expressed it unwillingness (this time) to suggest a cross-river seat including parts of the city of Liverpool, the only alternative was to link Cheshire West and Chester with Wirral. The initially proposed Ellesmere Port seat would include two wards from the current South Wirral: Eastham and Bromborough, with over 23,000 electors. Altogether it would include 68% of EP & Neston and 40% of South Wirral. To a large extent, this actually recreates the Bebington & Ellesmere Port seat that existed in the 1974-83 period – both Bromborough and Eastham were included in the former Bebington municipal borough. Meanwhile both Neston and the Gowy Rural area would be removed, the former to a new Chester North and Neston constituency, and the latter to Runcorn & Helsby. In the revised proposals of November 2022 the Commission retained the boundaries initially suggested, but changed the name to Ellesmere Port and Bromborough to acknowledge the presence of the Wirral section along with that in Cheshire.
Thus the new seat would more tightly follow the west bank of the Mersey. In recent local elections such as those of May 2022, Bromborough has been solidly won by Labour and Eastham by the Liberal Democrats. However as South Wirral as a whole has been swinging strongly to Labour in the long term, the new Ellesmere Port is likely to be a safe seat, with a notional majority for December 2019 well into five figures. Chester North and Neston looks closer, but with Labour still ahead by at least 6,000 in a hypothetical 2019 contest.
It is no secret that Boris Johnson was not Merseyside’s favourite politician. However it would be foolish for any Conservative to hope that this sub region will show any more favour to his successor in 2024 or whenever the next general election takes place; and the new Ellesmere Port will be more 'Merseyside' still than the current version, both literally and figuratively. The Tories might not shout ‘Top of the world, Ma!’ like James Cagney in White Heat, but their hopes will surely crash and burn here.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 18.6% 200/650
Owner-occupied 72.2% 157/650
Private rented 9.2 % 606 /650
Social rented 16.9% 290 /650
White 97.8% 149/650
Black 0.2% 527/650
Asian 1.0% 519/650
Managerial & professional 30.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 29.0%
Degree level 23.7% 386/650
No qualifications 22.9% 329/650
Students 6.6% 360/650
[b
2021 Census[/b]
Owner occupied 69.7% 181/573
Private rented 13.8% 492/573
Social rented 16.6% 233/573
White 96.2%
Black 0.4%
Asian 1.6%
Managerial & professional 31.6% 296/573
Routine & Semi-routine 27.2% 170/573
Degree level 30.0% 332/573
No qualifications 17.4% 317/573
General Election 2019: Ellesmere Port and Neston
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Justin Madders 26,001 53.3 –5.9
Conservative Alison Rodwell 17,237 35.4 –1.4
Liberal Democrats Ed Gough 2,406 4.9 +3.1
Brexit Party Christopher Stevens 2,138 4.4 New
Green Chris Copeman 964 2.0 +1.3
Lab Majority 8,764 18.0 –4.5
2019 electorate 70,327
Turnout 46,746 69.3 –4.9
Labour hold
Swing 2.2 Lab to C