Local Council by-elections July 28th 2022

[tonyhill]

Slack water for the next six weeks or so as Tony Greaves might have said.

[froome]

Jul 28, 2022 23:17:08 GMT andrewp said:

Only 2 wards but this weeks results are Labour doing a bit better than expected in a ‘red wall’ type ward and the Conservatives doing a bit better than expected in a Lib Dem facing southern ward.

I would have thought that was a bit of an understatement. In a safe Conservative ward with the Lib Dems clearly the only other challenger, you would expect in the current political climate to see a swing towards the Lib Dems even if they haven't put in their usual hard campaign, and instead there was a notable swing to the Conservatives. In Derbyshire that must rank as an excellent performance by Labour, putting them into a very dominant position.

[cuthbertbede]

Jul 29, 2022 7:34:36 GMT froome said:

Jul 28, 2022 23:17:08 GMT andrewp said:

Only 2 wards but this weeks results are Labour doing a bit better than expected in a ‘red wall’ type ward and the Conservatives doing a bit better than expected in a Lib Dem facing southern ward.

I would have thought that was a bit of an understatement. In a safe Conservative ward with the Lib Dems clearly the only other challenger, you would expect in the current political climate to see a swing towards the Lib Dems even if they haven't put in their usual hard campaign, and instead there was a notable swing to the Conservatives. In Derbyshire that must rank as an excellent performance by Labour, putting them into a very dominant position.

Lib Dems probably hampered here by candidate choice - student at University of Essex, not living in the ward, previously stood elsewhere in the borough and in Doncaster simultaneously, all points which the Tory literature hammered home, alongside blaming Lib Dems for local house building. Meanwhile, the Conservative candidate is a reasonably high-profile resident in the largest village in the ward.

[matureleft]

Jul 29, 2022 8:08:14 GMT cuthbertbede said:

Jul 29, 2022 7:34:36 GMT froome said:

I would have thought that was a bit of an understatement. In a safe Conservative ward with the Lib Dems clearly the only other challenger, you would expect in the current political climate to see a swing towards the Lib Dems even if they haven't put in their usual hard campaign, and instead there was a notable swing to the Conservatives. In Derbyshire that must rank as an excellent performance by Labour, putting them into a very dominant position.

Lib Dems probably hampered here by candidate choice - student at University of Essex, not living in the ward, previously stood elsewhere in the borough and in Doncaster simultaneously, all points which the Tory literature hammered home, alongside blaming Lib Dems for local house building. Meanwhile, the Conservative candidate is a reasonably high-profile resident in the largest village in the ward.

Yup. These are local elections and factors like candidate choice rightly count. In Derbyshire Labour selected a known quantity who has been around the block many (! I remember him) times. Clearly residents like that. 

On the choice of a student I’m still impressed by Labour’s ability to get one elected in the highly marginal and non-university West Chesterton in Cambridge. 

[The Bishop]

Jul 29, 2022 8:08:14 GMT cuthbertbede said:

Jul 29, 2022 7:34:36 GMT froome said:

I would have thought that was a bit of an understatement. In a safe Conservative ward with the Lib Dems clearly the only other challenger, you would expect in the current political climate to see a swing towards the Lib Dems even if they haven't put in their usual hard campaign, and instead there was a notable swing to the Conservatives. In Derbyshire that must rank as an excellent performance by Labour, putting them into a very dominant position.

Lib Dems probably hampered here by candidate choice - student at University of Essex, not living in the ward, previously stood elsewhere in the borough and in Doncaster simultaneously, all points which the Tory literature hammered home, alongside blaming Lib Dems for local house building. Meanwhile, the Conservative candidate is a reasonably high-profile resident in the largest village in the ward.

Ah, of course

There are few more reliable standbys in local council byelections than NIMBYism and literally all parties indulge in it.

[jamesdoyle]

GWBWI

Lab +71
Con +36
LDm +2

ASV

Lab +1.2
Con +0.6
LDm +0.0

Full explanation of GWBWI at vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/16159/good-week-bad-index

[yellowperil]

Jul 29, 2022 9:37:44 GMT matureleft said:

Jul 29, 2022 8:08:14 GMT cuthbertbede said:

Lib Dems probably hampered here by candidate choice - student at University of Essex, not living in the ward, previously stood elsewhere in the borough and in Doncaster simultaneously, all points which the Tory literature hammered home, alongside blaming Lib Dems for local house building. Meanwhile, the Conservative candidate is a reasonably high-profile resident in the largest village in the ward.

Yup. These are local elections and factors like candidate choice rightly count. In Derbyshire Labour selected a known quantity who has been around the block many (! I remember him) times. Clearly residents like that. 

On the choice of a student I’m still impressed by Labour’s ability to get one elected in the highly marginal and non-university West Chesterton in Cambridge. 

Yes, I did wonder about our choice of candidate, but just occasionally (all parties) the moment can be right for a young candidate without too much past baggage. The Tory candidate may have been just the right choice in the circumstances. I do feel too that Colchester is one of those places which once had a very effective local election machine, no longer what it was, and some times it takes longer to recover in such places.

[East Anglian Lefty]

It probably wasn't an ideal candidate choice, but I don't think it would have made very much difference, as the ward combines the most reliably Conservative part of Colchester with some decidedly prosperous villages that don't have any characteristics that would indicate a propensity to support the LDs today. Last time the LDs lost either of the main predecessor wards was when John Major was in office.

[Tony Otim]

Jul 29, 2022 11:36:00 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

It probably wasn't an ideal candidate choice, but I don't think it would have made very much difference, as the ward combines the most reliably Conservative part of Colchester with some decidedly prosperous villages that don't have any characteristics that would indicate a propensity to support the LDs today. Last time the LDs lost either of the main predecessor wards was when John Major was in office.

I assume you mean Conservatives lost and/or Lib Dems won in your last sentence?

[East Anglian Lefty]

Yes, I mean won. Which itself was a surprise to me - I had assumed that both would have been bulletproof even in the mid 90s, but evidently not.

[cuthbertbede]

Jul 29, 2022 11:36:00 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

It probably wasn't an ideal candidate choice, but I don't think it would have made very much difference, as the ward combines the most reliably Conservative part of Colchester with some decidedly prosperous villages that don't have any characteristics that would indicate a propensity to support the LDs today. Last time the LDs lost either of the main predecessor wards was when John Major was in office.

That's all true. I do think the result would have been a bit closer if the LD candidate had been rather more tied into one of the local communities (but the issue with a ward like this is that you can't be local everywhere!) or if the Tories had selected Paul Dundas (council leader who lost his seat in Stanway in May), as had been rumoured. But you don't always have an ideal candidate to hand, and from what I can see he can't be faulted for the work he put into the campaign

Incidentally, one of the winning LD candidates in West Bergholt and Eight Ash Green in the 90s was a very well-regarded GP at the West Bergholt surgery, which probably helped them over the line at the time.

[yellowperil]

Jul 29, 2022 11:51:17 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Yes, I mean won. Which itself was a surprise to me - I had assumed that both would have been bulletproof even in the mid 90s, but evidently not.

As I said, that was the time when the Colchester LibDem machine was one of the best in the business. Sadly, however hard they try the can't quite match up to that.

I can remember in those days a competition in LDN between Bob Russell and my Eileen as to who had the best ward.( Ashford Pluckley v Colchester Newtown) Even in that the Colchester lot were intensely competitive and wouldn't rest until they had victory in the bag- obviously a mistake, of course- Pluckley should have won hands down.