East Lothian

[john07]

This is a particularly interesting seats because it has certainly returned MPs with a variety of political labels. East Lothian, plus its predecessors Berwick and East Lothian along with Berwick and Haddington, has elected National Liberals, Labour, Unionists, Conservatives, and Scottish Nationalist since the First World War. It is currently represented by Kenny MacAskill elected as SNP but is now from the zombie party Alba.

The changes in the seat were bewildering: 1918 & 1922 National Liberal, 1923 Labour, 1924 Unionist, 1929 Labour, 1931 & 1935 Unionist, 1945 & 1950 Labour, 1951, 1955, 1959 & 1964 Conservative, 1966 and 1970 Labour, February 1974 Conservative, October 1974, Labour. The death of the respected John Mackintosh lead to a by-election in 1978 that was won by John Home Robertson for Labour. Things settled down with Labour holding the seat until 2015 when it was taken by the SNP. Then the volatility returned with Labour winning in 2017 and the SNP regaining in 2019.

The seat stretches from the fringe of Edinburgh through some former mining areas such as Tranent and Wallyford to seaside resorts such as North Berwick and Gullane. The administrative centre is the market town of Haddington, once the fourth biggest in Scotland after Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Roxburgh.



It will be interesting to see if MacAskill contests the next election. If so it could split the Nationalist vote and give Labour the edge in what looks like a close call based on recent history

[John Chanin]

We really need some information on how the demographics and politics differs in different parts of this heterogeneous seat.

[john07]

Jun 28, 2022 20:29:02 GMT John Chanin said:

We really need some information on how the demographics and politics differs in different parts of this heterogeneous seat.

This was taken from:

ballotbox.scot/le22#elothian



It is slightly confusing as it shows only first preference votes. In the Musselburgh division, the SNP did obtain more first preference votes but Labour took two seats to one SNP and one Green.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 17.8% 248 /650
Owner-occupied 65.4% 370/650
Private rented 9.5% 597/650
Social rented 23.7% 131/650
White 98.3% 76/650
Black 0.3% 472/650
Asian 1.0% 529/650
Managerial & professional 30.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 27.5%
Degree level 27.0% 275/650
No qualifications 25.1 % 248/650
Students 7.1% 278/650



General Election 2019: East Lothian

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

SNP Kenny MacAskill 21,156 36.2 +5.6
Labour Martin Whitfield 17,270 29.5 −6.6
Conservative Craig Hoy 15,523 26.5 −3.1
Liberal Democrats Robert O'Riordan 4,071 7.0 +3.9
UKIP David Sisson 493 0.8 New

SNP Majority 3,886 6.7

2019 electorate 81,600

Turnout 58,513 71.7 +1.1

SNP gain from Labour

Swing 6.1 Lab to SNP

[ntyuk1707]

East Lothian is a county constituency covering the East Lothian council area. The seat stretches from Musselburgh in the west, which is the seat's largest town and adjoins nearby Edinburgh, through to the fairly affluent and more remote coastal town of Dunbar 20-miles east.

East Lothian is, for the most part, made up of flat agricultural plains which stretch from the very affluent 'golfing coast' in the north which includes popular golfing villages like Longniddry, Aberlady, Gullane and Dirleton and the town of North Berwick in the very north of the seat, to remote villages on the foothills of the Lammermuir Hills in the south as well as the central town of Haddington, from which the county of East Lothian owed its name until 1921 when it was renamed from 'Haddingtonshire' to 'East Lothian'.

As a prosperous seat predominantly made-up of small-medium sized towns and villages, it may come as a surprise that the area voted Labour from 1923 until 2015, returning a mix of Labour and Conservative & Unionist MPs from the 1920s to 1970s as part of the Berwick and East Lothian constituency, which incorporated the more Conservative-leaning county of Berwickshire in the Scottish Borders. 

There are, however, a number of ex-mining towns and villages in the more urban west of the East Lothian constituency where social deprivation is markedly higher than the rest of the seat, including Prestonpans, Tranent, Cockenzie & Port Seton, Ormiston, Pencaitland, Macmerry and Wallyford. Substantial population growth has transformed the nature of this constituency in many respects as the seat has over 10,000 more inhabitants than it did at the turn of the century and it is a popular commuter area for the Edinburgh Middle Classes. It is set to see its population continue to expand quite rapidly over the forthcoming decades. A growing Middle Class population and proximity to Edinburgh has spared many of the seat's ex-mining communities of the same grim fates that their western cousins in West Lothian, Lanarkshire and Ayrshire have suffered, and there is some affluence on the outskirts of Tranent, Port Seton and the eastern fringe of Prestonpans.

The ex-mining communities of this seat have always voted Labour in local council elections, in spite of the party's decline in Scotland from the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary election. At last year's council elections, Labour led the SNP in Preston, Seton & Gosford ward on 40% of the vote to the SNP's 30%, and came ahead in Tranent, Wallyford & Macmerry ward on 46% of the vote to the SNP's 33%. Preston, Seton & Gosford ward, covering Prestonpans, Port Seton and Cockenzie as well as Longniddry is estimated to have voted 63% No at the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, with Tranent, Wallyford & Macmerry ward returning a 60% No vote, markedly higher than other communities with a similar demographic profile elsewhere in Scotland.

Loyalty to Labour and the Union wanes however as you approach the city of Edinburgh, and particularly in the town of Musselburgh and nearby villages of Whitecraigs and Wallyford.  Musselburgh shares a similar demographic profile to the aforementioned ex-mining towns and villages, with areas of high deprivation in eastern and central parts of the town and pockets of affluence on in its western and southern peripheries. 

The SNP topped the poll in Musselburgh at last year's local elections on 37% to Labour's 24%, with the Greens taking a notable 16% vote share. Musselburgh is estimated to have had the highest level of support for independence in the constituency, with a 53% No vote - beaten only by a marginal No vote in neighbouring Wallyford and Yes votes in the villages of West Barns and Whitecraigs.

As you move to the east of the seat however, the profile of the constituency changes - becoming more elderly, affluent and rural. 

Haddington and Lammermuir ward incorporates the central town of Haddington which includes a mixture of former council estates and affluent Edinburgh-facing commuter suburbs, in addition to more affluent villages including Athelstaneford, which is the site of the Battle of Athelstaneford 832 in which the Scottish saltire was first adopted as a national symbol for Scotland, in addition to villages towards the Lammermuir Hills such as Gifford, Garvald, Bolton and Moreham. 

Labour tend to perform better in the town of Haddington and the ex-mining communities of Pencaitland and Ormiston which are covered by this ward, with the Conservatives having a residual vote within some of the villages such as Bolton and Moreham, which enabled former Conservative Cllr and now MSP Craig Hoy to unexpectedly win the ward at a by-election in 2019. Last year however, it was Labour who topped to poll here, well ahead of their rivals, taking 36% of the vote to the SNP's 26% and the Conservatives' 22%. Haddington & Lammermuir ward is estimated to have returned a higher vote against independence in the 2014 referendum at 65% No 35% Yes.

Further east and towards the North Sea is Dunbar and its surrounding communities, including the affluent village of East Linton and its surrounding hamlets and steadings situated in between Haddington and Dunbar, as well as the more remote villages of Spott, Innerwick and Oldhamstocks in the south-eastern corner of East Lothian towards the Scottish Borders. Dunbar itself, like Haddington, contains pockets of deprivation and affluence, with a commuter population benefiting from a direct 25-minute rail connection to Edinburgh City Centre.

The rural communities of the ward tend to return a more favourable vote for the Conservatives, with Labour and the SNP polling close behind, whilst Dunbar itself is an SNP-Labour battleground, with the SNP polling slightly ahead of Labour at last year's council elections. In the west of Dunbar, the adjoining village of West Barns is the SNP's best area and is estimated to have voted marginally in favour of independence in 2014. Dunbar and East Linton ward as a whole voted 27% SNP, 25% Labour, 21% Conservative, 15% Green and 10% Liberal Democrat at last year's council elections and it was estimated to have rejected Scottish independence in 2014 by 61% No, 39% Yes. 

Finally, in the north of the constituency is the highly affluent, more elderly town of North Berwick and villages of the golfing coast. This area is extremely popular for day-trippers, and in the town of North Berwick itself over 1 in 10 homes are holiday homes. The town includes a booming High Street and faces out on the coast to the Bass Rock which houses a large number of Scotland's gannets during the Summer months. North Berwick and Gullane have the most expensive house prices in the whole of Scotland. The villages of Dirleton, Gullane, Aberlady and the town of North Berwick include a number of manor houses, townhouses and detached bungalows, with small pockets of relative deprivation in the south-east of North Berwick and central part of Aberlady. 

This ward, and the nearby village of Longniddry, is the most Conservative-leaning part of East Lothian, with the Conservatives' winning an impressive 39% of the vote in the ward in the 2022 council elections to Labour's 21%, the SNP's 20% and the Greens' 13%. Support for the Conservatives' is quite evenly spread across the ward, which is estimated to have rejected Scottish independence on 71% No to 29% Yes in the 2014 independence referendum, the best result for No in East Lothian which contributed to the county returning one of Scotland's highest No votes in 2014 at 62% No. 

East Lothian is not a natural SNP seat, and in the 2016 Scottish election and 2017 UK election, Labour won the seat before losing it to the SNP in the 2019 general election and 2021 Scottish election.

Nonetheless, given Labour's ascension in the polls and Douglas Ross' call for Conservative voters to lend Labour their support in seat's like East Lothian, it is very hard to see Labour lose the seat, especially with the return of high profile candidate Douglas Alexander, who previously represented Mhairi Black's constituency of Paisley & Renfrewshire South. 

Mr Alexander has no connection to East Lothian, however his pro-union moderate credentials may appeal to Conservative and Liberal Democrat voters in eastern parts of the county as has occurred for Labour's Ian Murray in nearby Edinburgh South. 

Boundary changes suggest the removal of western and central Musselburgh from this constituency, improving Labour's chances here.

East Lothian is Labour's top target in Scotland, and it is the most likely seat to fall to the Labour Party in the whole country. If Labour are in for any sort of recovery in Scotland, they will be winning here in East Lothian, and I would wager the margin of that victory will not be a small one if Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in the east of the county tactically support Mr Alexander's bid to return to the House of Commons to stop the SNP. 

2014 Independence referendum result:
NO: 44,283 (61.7%)
YES: 27,467 (38.3%)

2016 EU Membership referendum result
REMAIN: 36,026 (64.6%)
LEAVE: 19,738 (35.4%)

2017 UK General election result
LAB: 20,158 (36.1%)
SNP: 17,075 (30.6%)
CON: 16,540 (29.6%)
LIB: 1,738 (3.1%)
IND: 367 (0.7%)

2019 UK General election result
SNP: 21,156 (36.2%)
LAB: 17,270 (29.5%)
CON: 15,523 (26.5%)
LIB: 4,071 (7.0%)
UKIP: 493 (0.8%)

[batman]

Haddington in the past was often referred to as a Conservative stronghold, but I don't know how accurately. It appears as you say to be fairly socially mixed.

[carlton43]

Apr 13, 2023 8:05:46 GMT batman said:

Haddington in the past was often referred to as a Conservative stronghold, but I don't know how accurately. It appears as you say to be fairly socially mixed.

On the long haul Kent-Sutherland it was always worth the detour from the A1 for grade A fish and chips followed by a doss in the back of the car for a couple of hours.  It did appear to me then (more than half a century ago) to be very socially divided but possibly more right of centre than expected.

[Deleted]

You’ve done a great job with these Scottish constituency profiles, ntyuk1707. Much appreciated… and interesting.

Would anyone in-the-know on the Labour side be able to hazard a guess as to how swiftly (and how high) Mr Alexander might ascend to office should he be elected?
I assume he’d be used by the party as the mascot of a Labour revival there, given his relative high profile and defeat a few years ago.

[batman]

nobody's in the know, we'd all be guessing.

[batman]

The one thing missing in this otherwise excellent & highly detailed profile is the defection of the MP to Alba and whether he will stand again, and potentially harm the SNP further by splitting the nationalist vote. Although the SNP would rightly expect to gain the vast majority of this, it does make their job harder still. This of course also applies in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, although that looks more like a Labour banker at present.