Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,176
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 15, 2022 10:15:29 GMT
Liscard: Lab 1304 C 370 Grn 172 LD 167 Arden: C 1609 LD 854 Lab 251 So not bad, but not quite as close as I thought Overhauling the huge Tory majority from the regular county election was always going to be a very big ask, especially when starting from 4th place. Still, a clear second place now should set us up well for next time. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 15, 2022 10:18:56 GMT
So not bad, but not quite as close as I thought Overhauling the huge Tory majority from the regular county election was always going to be a very big ask, especially when starting from 4th place. Still, a clear second place now should set us up well for second place next time. FTFY |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 15, 2022 10:30:56 GMT
Binley and Willenhall: Lab 934 C 765 Cov Citizens 746 Alliance for Democracy and Freedom 91 TUSC 46 Perhaps all the non-voters decided to go to the Binley Mega Chippy instead? What are "Coventry Citizens" exactly - greenchristian? |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jul 15, 2022 10:31:04 GMT
Good Week/Bad Week Index
Lab +198
LDm +150
Grn -7
Con -93
Adjusted Seat Value
Lab +3.3
LDm +2.5
Grn -0.1
Con -1.6
Full explanation of GWBWI: vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/16159/good-week-bad-index
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Post by agbutler on Jul 15, 2022 10:31:45 GMT
Binley and Willenhall: Lab 934 C 765 Cov Citizens 746 Alliance for Democracy and Freedom 91 TUSC 46 Perhaps all the non-voters decided to go to the Binley Mega Chippy instead? What are "Coventry Citizens" exactly - greenchristian? They are the local 'we definitely didn't used to be UKIP' party |
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 15, 2022 10:35:34 GMT
Binley and Willenhall: Lab 934 C 765 Cov Citizens 746 Alliance for Democracy and Freedom 91 TUSC 46 Perhaps all the non-voters decided to go to the Binley Mega Chippy instead? What are "Coventry Citizens" exactly - greenchristian ? UKIP splinter group who now have more members who never had anything to do with UKIP than members who did. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 15, 2022 10:37:19 GMT
So more a catch all localist/populist thing these days?
Is this their best ward in the city and if so are there any particular reasons for that??
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 362
Member is Online
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Post by mrtoad on Jul 15, 2022 12:02:15 GMT
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 15, 2022 12:51:02 GMT
So more a catch all localist/populist thing these days? Pretty much. Yes it is, mostly due to the candidate having built up a personal vote during the UKIP years. Everywhere else their vote is tiny. |
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Post by londonseal80 on Jul 15, 2022 15:49:13 GMT
Tooting result would seem to confirm that the key factor in last week's London results was the circumstances of the two by elections The Tooting wards are on the whole a truly safe Labour voting area of London, though not as safely Labour as the neighbouring Mitcham area. |
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Post by batman on Jul 15, 2022 21:24:14 GMT
They are now but things were not quite the same a decade & a bit ago. For years Furzedown ward was split between Labour & the Tories (now it's just about the safest Labour ward in the entire borough, vying with Tooting Broadway). Part of Bedford ward was in the Tooting community & that was Tory for quite some years, and indeed the Tories only missed winning it by one vote in a by-election less than a year ago. Tooting ward until the recent boundary changes was for a time showing signs of gentrification and a noticeable uptick in the Tory vote (though still pretty safe Labour) but that seems to have come to a halt now. Even Graveney was something of a Lab-LD marginal in the Blair years for a time, although Labour never actually lost it.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 15, 2022 21:58:21 GMT
They are now but things were not quite the same a decade & a bit ago. For years Furzedown ward was split between Labour & the Tories (now it's just about the safest Labour ward in the entire borough, vying with Tooting Broadway). Part of Bedford ward was in the Tooting community & that was Tory for quite some years, and indeed the Tories only missed winning it by one vote in a by-election less than a year ago. Tooting ward until the recent boundary changes was for a time showing signs of gentrification and a noticeable uptick in the Tory vote (though still pretty safe Labour) but that seems to have come to a halt now. Even Graveney was something of a Lab-LD marginal in the Blair years for a time, although Labour never actually lost it. Don't forget the Conservatives topped the poll in Tooting in 2006 and won two of the three seats. Seemed to be a bit of a flash in the pan result though as they were never really close before or since. The Lib Dem strength in Graveney predates Blair - they were second in that ward in every election from 1986 to 2010 inclusive, though they certainly came closest to actually winning in the late Blair years |
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Post by batman on Jul 16, 2022 1:52:13 GMT
you told me not to forget, but I clearly had.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 16, 2022 10:11:15 GMT
Any gain is a good gain, but I thought Labour might do a bit better than that. From 2019 top vote, it’s a 4.8% swing to Labour From 2019 average vote, it’s a 2.2% swing to Labour, The UKIP win, the town in a rural setting suggests this was going to be fairly tough. Thetford used to have a large London overflow housing element which would have leaned Labour many years ago but will have lost its salience in the last 20 years or so. A turnout of just 21% in what was obviously a keenly fought contest probably didn't help Labour either. (not impossible on those figures that the Tories actually "won" the postal vote, despite the unfavourable national backdrop?) |
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