Wakefield - 23rd June 2022

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Parliamentary Prediction Competition for Wakefield by election.
23rd June 2022

The 15 candidates as a reminder are:
Nadeem Ahmed (Conservative)
Akef Akbar (Ind)
Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance)
Mick Dodgson (Freedom Alliance)
Sir Archibald Stanton Earl 'Eaton (Official Monster Raving Loony)
Jayda Fransen (Ind)
Jordan Gaskell (UKIP)
David Herdson (Yorkshire Party)
Therese Hirst (English Democrats)
Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party)
Simon Lightwood (Labour)
Jamie Needle (Lib Dem)
Ashley Routh (Green)
Ashlea Simon (Britain First)
Chris Walsh (Reform UK)

Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 15 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 6.6 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 6.6 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 23rd June 2022.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.


Have Fun.
DHAA

[greenhert]

To begin, here is my prediction:

Simon Lightwood (Labour) 49.3%
Nadeem Ahmed (Conservative) 35.5%
David Herdson (Yorkshire Party) 3.5%
Chris Walsh (Reform UK) 2.8%
Ashley Routh (Green Party) 2.5%
Jamie Needle (Liberal Democrats) 2.1%
Akef Akbar (Independent) 1.9%
Therese Hirst (English Democrats) 0.6%
Jordan Gaskell (UKIP) 0.5%
Paul Bickerdike (CPA) 0.3%
Archibald Earl Stanton (OMRLP) 0.3%
Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party) 0.2%
Mick Dodgson (Freedom Alliance) 0.2%
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.2%
Jayda Fransen (Independent) 0.1%

[peterl]

Simon Lightwood (Labour) 51.8%
Nadeem Ahmed (Conservative) 33.1%
David Herdson (Yorkshire Party) 4.6%
Ashley Routh (Green Party) 2.7%
Chris Walsh (Reform UK) 2.2%
Jamie Needle (Liberal Democrats) 1.8%
Akef Akbar (Independent) 1.4%
Jordan Gaskell (UKIP) 0.6%
Therese Hirst (English Democrats) 0.5%
Paul Bickerdike (CPA) 0.4%
Archibald Earl Stanton (OMRLP) 0.3%
Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party) 0.2%
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.2%
Mick Dodgson (Freedom Alliance) 0.1%
Jayda Fransen (Independent) 0.1%

[owainsutton]

Simon Lightwood (Labour) 46.5
Nadeem Ahmed (Conservative) 35.4
Ashley Routh (Green) 5.1
Jamie Needle (Lib Dem) 5
David Herdson (Yorkshire Party) 3.3
Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party) 1.6
Chris Walsh (Reform UK) 1.3
Jordan Gaskell (UKIP) 0.5
Sir Archibald Stanton Earl 'Eaton (Official Monster Raving Loony) 0.3
Therese Hirst (English Democrats) 0.3
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.3
Akef Akbar (Ind) 0.1
Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance) 0.1
Mick Dodgson (Freedom Alliance) 0.1
Jayda Fransen (Ind) 0.1

[kevinf]

Labour 44
Con 34
Yorkshire 6
Green 4.5
LibDem 3.2
Akbar (I) 2.5
Reform 2.5
Ukip 1
NIP 0.5
Britain First 0.5
Eng Dem 0.4
MRLP 0.3
Freedom 0.3
CPA 0.2
Fransen 0.1

[johnloony]

Lab 53.8
Con 33.7
York 3.1
RefUK 2.3
LD 1.9
Grn 1.8
Akbar 1.2
ED 0.6
UKIP 0.4
OMRLP 0.3
CPA 0.2
FrAll 0.2
NIP 0.2
BrFir 0.2
Fransen 0.1

[batman]

Simon Lightwood (Labour) 48.6%
Nadeem Ahmed (Conservative) 35.3%
David Herdson (Yorkshire Party) 3.6%
Ashley Routh (Green Party) 2.8%
Chris Walsh (Reform UK) 2.7%
Jamie Needle (Liberal Democrats) 2.4%
Akef Akbar (Independent) 1.7%
Jordan Gaskell (UKIP) 0.7%
Archibald Earl Stanton (OMRLP) 0.5%
Therese Hirst (English Democrats) 0.4%
Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party) 0.4%
Paul Bickerdike (CPA) 0.3%
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.3%
Mick Dodgson (Freedom Alliance) 0.2%
Jayda Fransen (Independent) 0.1%

[sirbenjamin]

Simon Lightwood (Labour) 53.9%
Nadeem Ahmed (Conservative) 30.5%
David Herdson (Yorkshire Party) 5.1%
Jamie Needle (Liberal Democrats) 2.4%
Chris Walsh (Reform UK) 2.2%
Ashley Routh (Green Party) 2.1%
Jordan Gaskell (UKIP) 1.0%
Akef Akbar (Independent) 0.7%
Therese Hirst (English Democrats) 0.6%
Paul Bickerdike (CPA) 0.4%
Mick Dodgson (Freedom Alliance) 0.3%
Jayda Fransen (Independent) 0.3%
Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party) 0.2%
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.2%
Archibald Earl Stanton (OMRLP) 0.1%

[owainsutton]

After spending the day there, I'm aware that Akef Akbar is in a much stronger position than I'd assumed. Decent leaflets, and winning at posterboards-on-lampposts. Maybe 5%-10%?

[markgoodair]

Jun 18, 2022 18:56:35 GMT owainsutton said:

After spending the day there, I'm aware that Akef Akbar is in a much stronger position than I'd assumed. Decent leaflets, and winning at posterboards-on-lampposts. Maybe 5%-10%?

He has the money but I doubt he has any real support outside of the small Asian community.

[johnloony]

Jun 18, 2022 18:56:35 GMT owainsutton said:

After spending the day there, I'm aware that Akef Akbar is in a much stronger position than I'd assumed. Decent leaflets, and winning at posterboards-on-lampposts. Maybe 5%-10%?

That's a mistake I made when I stood in Ealing Southall in 2007. The campaign was very active and lively, and there were some minor-party or independent candidates who had very visible campaigns with loads of posters in shops etc. I did think that possibly one or two of them were going to get several hundred votes, or a few percent, but they all ended up with the usual not-very-many.

The opposite sort of result happened in Hartlepool, where an Independent candidate came 3rd with 2,904 votes (9.7%); I'm not sure if I did ever find out why or how he/she got so much support.

P.S. I notice that in the 6 predictions so far, there are only 2 predictions of held deposits for non-top-two candidates.

[jm]

Simon Lightwood (Labour) 50.2%
Nadeem Ahmed (Conservative) 33.1%
David Herdson (Yorkshire Party) 5.1%
Akef Akbar (Independent) 3.4%
Jamie Needle (Liberal Democrats) 2.3%
Ashley Routh (Green Party) 2.1%
Chris Walsh (Reform UK) 1.9%
Jordan Gaskell (UKIP) 0.4%
Therese Hirst (English Democrats) 0.3%
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.3%
Archibald Earl Stanton (OMRLP) 0.2%
Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party) 0.2%
Paul Bickerdike (CPA) 0.2%
Mick Dodgson (Freedom Alliance) 0.2%
Jayda Fransen (Independent) 0.1%

[mysticrobin]

Simon Lightwood 47.2%
Nadeem Ahmed 34%
David Herdson 4%
Akef Akbar 3.5%
Ashley Routh 3%
Jamie Needle 2.5%
Chris Walsh 2%
Jordan Gaskell 1%
Archibald Earl Stanton 1%
Christopher Jones 1%
Therese Hirst 0.2%
Ashlea Simon 0.2%
Paul Bickerdike 0.2%
Mick Dodgson 0.1%
Jayda Fransen 0.1%

[Tony Otim]

Labour 48.1
Conservative 32.5
Akbar 3.5
Yorkshire 3.3
Liberal Democrat 2.7
Reform 2.4
Green 2.0
UKIP 1.9
NIP 1.0
ED 0.8
Freedom 0.7
CPA 0.4
OMRLP 0.3
Britain First 0.3
Fransen 0.1

[YL]

Lab 51.1%
Con 29.7%
Yorkshire Party 5.8%
Akbar 4.4%
Reform 3.1%
Green 1.7%
Lib Dem 1.6%
NIP 0.6%
UKIP 0.5%
Eng Dem 0.5%
CPA 0.3%
OMRLP 0.3%
Britain First 0.2%
Freedom Alliance 0.1%
Fransen 0.1%

[thejedi]

1. Labour 46.5
2. Cons 29.5
3. Akef 5.1
4. YP 4.2
5. LD 3.7
6. Greens 2.5
7. Reform UK 2
8. NIP 1.8
9. UKIP 1.6
10. ED 0.9
11. MRLP 0.8
12. Britain First 0.6
13. Freedom 0.4
14. CPA 0.3
15. Fransen 0.1

[bigfatron]

Nadeem Ahmed (Conservative) - 31.7%
Akef Akbar (Ind) - 5.8%
Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance) - 0.2%
Mick Dodgson (Freedom Alliance) - 0.2%
Sir Archibald Stanton Earl 'Eaton (Official Monster Raving Loony) - 0.1%
Jayda Fransen (Ind) - 0.1%
Jordan Gaskell (UKIP) - 0.5%
David Herdson (Yorkshire Party) - 5.5%
Therese Hirst (English Democrats) - 0.3%
Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party) - 0.2%
Simon Lightwood (Labour) - 48.0%
Jamie Needle (Lib Dem) - 2.5%
Ashley Routh (Green) - 3.0%
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) - 0.2%
Chris Walsh (Reform UK) - 1.7%

[aargauer]

Simon Lightwood (Labour) 53.9%
Nadeem Ahmed (Conservative) 29.9%
David Herdson (Yorkshire Party) 3.6%
Akef Akbar (Independent) 3.4%
Ashley Routh (Green Party) 2.5%
Chris Walsh (Reform UK) 2.2%
Jamie Needle (Liberal Democrats) 2.1%
Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party) 0.5%
Jordan Gaskell (UKIP) 0.5%
Therese Hirst (English Democrats) 0.4%
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.3%
Mick Dodgson (Freedom Alliance) 0.2%
Paul Bickerdike (CPA) 0.2
Archibald Earl Stanton (OMRLP) 0.2%
Jayda Fransen (Independent) 0.1%

I think thats right, but if I am over or below 100, I request moving the labour score by the required amount to get to 100 exactly!

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Nadeem Ahmed (Conservative) 33.30%
Akef Akbar (Ind) 4%
Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance) 0.60%
Mick Dodgson (Freedom Alliance) 0.10%
Sir Archibald Stanton Earl 'Eaton (Official Monster Raving Loony) 0.40%
Jayda Fransen (Ind) 0.20%
Jordan Gaskell (UKIP) 0.60%
David Herdson (Yorkshire Party) 4%
Therese Hirst (English Democrats) 0.80%
Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party) 0.30%
Simon Lightwood (Labour) 49.60%
Jamie Needle (Lib Dem) 3%
Ashley Routh (Green) 2.30%
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.20%
Chris Walsh (Reform UK) 0.80%

[Smartie]

Lab - 46.3
Con -30.8, LD 5.1
YP - 4.3
AA - 4.0
Grn - 3.1
RU - 2.8
NIP - 0.9
UKIP - 0.7
CPA - 0.5
OMRLP - 0.5
ED - 0.4
FA - 0.2
JF - 0.2
BF - 0.2

Adjusted