Tiverton and Honiton - 23rd June 2022

[iang]

Waiting for Roger Harmer

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party) 0.30%
Andy Foan (Reform UK) 1.20%
Richard Foord (Lib Dem) 43%
Helen Hurford (Conservative) 43.10%
Liz Pole (Labour) 8.90%
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain) 0.20%
Ben Walker (UKIP) 1.20%
Gill Westcott (Green) 2.10%

[Roger Harmer]

Liberal Democrats 50.1%
Conservative 33.2%
Labour 6.9%
Green 3.8%
Reform UIK 3.5%
UKIP 2%
Heritage Party 0.3%
For Britain 0.2%

[froome]

Liberal Democrats 43.6%
Conservative 39.8%
Labour 8.2%
Green 3.6%
Reform UK 3.4%
UKIP 0.6%
Heritage 0.6%
For Britain 0.2%

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

Lib Dems 48.6%
Cons 38.2%
Green 4.7%
Labour 4.6%
Ref-UK 1.8%
UKIP 1.5%
Heritage Party 0.3%
For Britain 0.3%

[Adam in Stroud]

Jun 22, 2022 23:53:54 GMT Roger Harmer said:

Liberal Democrats 50.1%
Conservative 33.2%
Labour 6.9%
Green 3.8%
Reform UIK 3.5%
UKIP 2%
Heritage Party 0.3%
For Britain 0.2%

That is by quite a distance the most optimistic forecast made by an actual Lib Dem on this site.

[Smartie]

LD - 46.7
Con - 37.2
Lab - 9.3
Grn - 3.2
RU - 2.7
HP - 0.4
UKIP - 0.3
ForB - 0.2

[iang]

Jun 23, 2022 8:03:22 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Jun 22, 2022 23:53:54 GMT Roger Harmer said:

Liberal Democrats 50.1%
Conservative 33.2%
Labour 6.9%
Green 3.8%
Reform UIK 3.5%
UKIP 2%
Heritage Party 0.3%
For Britain 0.2%

That is by quite a distance the most optimistic forecast made by an actual Lib Dem on this site.

Always been spot on in the past!

[andrewp]

Jun 23, 2022 8:14:40 GMT iang said:

Jun 23, 2022 8:03:22 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

That is by quite a distance the most optimistic forecast made by an actual Lib Dem on this site.

Always been spot on in the past!

It’s about what I would predict.

[wallington]

Never really make predictions, but will do for the hell of it.

Liberal Democrats - 44.6
Conservative - 36.2
Labour - 9.8
Green - 4.5
Reform - 3
UKIP - 1.5
For Britain - 0.2
Heritage - 0.2

[cogload]

Jun 22, 2022 23:53:54 GMT Roger Harmer said:

Liberal Democrats 50.1%
Conservative 33.2%
Labour 6.9%
Green 3.8%
Reform UIK 3.5%
UKIP 2%
Heritage Party 0.3%
For Britain 0.2%

Bold!

[heathener]

Jun 14, 2022 10:35:40 GMT greenhert said:

My prediction:

Richard Foord (Liberal Democrats) 44.7%
Helen Hurford (Conservative) 28.7%
Liz Pole (Labour) 8.4%
Gill Westcott (Green) 8.5%
Andy Foan (Reform UK) 6.8%
Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party) 0.5%
Ben Walker (UKIP) 2.2%
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain) 0.2%

[dibs]

Forecast Liberal Democrats 40%
Conservative 38%
Labour 12%
Green 4%
Reform UK 4%
UKIP 1%
Heritage 0.7%
For Britain 0.3%

[haribo]

Lib: 52.1
Con: 30.9
Lab: 7.1
Green: 4.8
RefUK: 4.6
UKIP 0.3
Heritage 0.1
For Britain 0.1

First time entering so fingers crossed this is compliant with the rules.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 23, 2022 17:58:54 GMT heathener said:

Jun 14, 2022 10:35:40 GMT greenhert said:

My prediction:

Richard Foord (Liberal Democrats) 44.7%
Helen Hurford (Conservative) 28.7%
Liz Pole (Labour) 8.4%
Gill Westcott (Green) 8.5%
Andy Foan (Reform UK) 6.8%
Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party) 0.5%
Ben Walker (UKIP) 2.2%
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain) 0.2%

This prediction by heathener is accepted, it is very different from greenhert's prediction.

[clyde1998]

LDm - 45.5%
Con - 37.2%
Lab - 8.4%
Grn - 4.5%
RUK - 2.8%
UKIP - 1.0%
Heritage - 0.4%
For Britain - 0.2%

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Competition closed

25 entries

20 out of 25 predict a Liberal Democrat win over the Conservatives ranging from 0.80% by jm to 25.40% by Olympian95 a range of 24.60%
5 out of 22 predict a Conservative win over the Liberal Democtrats by 0.10% by DHAA to 3.00% by jamesmanc a range of 1.50% (dhaa, jamesmanc, mysticrobin, David, bigfatron)

Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party) 0.10% by haribo to 0.80% by Olympian95 a range of 0.70%
Andy Foan (Reform UK) 0.70% by David to 6.80% by heathener a range of 6.10%
Richard Foord (Lib Dem) 40.00% by kevinf & dibs to 57.70% by Olympian95 a range of 17.70%
Helen Hurford (Conservative) 28.70% by heathener to 46.00% by jamesmanc22 a range of 17.30%
Liz Pole (Labour) 3.90% by Olympian95 to 12.20% by Tony Otim a range of 8.30%
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain) 0.10% by YL & haribo to 0.50% by Olympian95 a range of 0.40%
Ben Walker (UKIP) 0.30% by 3 predictors to 2.20% by heathener a range of 1.90%
Gill Westcott (Green) 2.10% by DHAA to 8.50% by heathener a range of 6.40%

[Chris from Brum]

Jun 23, 2022 16:21:46 GMT cogload said:

Jun 22, 2022 23:53:54 GMT Roger Harmer said:

Liberal Democrats 50.1%
Conservative 33.2%
Labour 6.9%
Green 3.8%
Reform UIK 3.5%
UKIP 2%
Heritage Party 0.3%
For Britain 0.2%

Bold!

Not bold enough, as it turns out, and overgenerous to Labour and Greens.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Tiverton and Honiton - 23rd June 2022 - Result

Congratulations to sirnorfolkpassmore who wins with a score of less than 10! Also on the podium, and not far behind, are Andrew_S in second and in joint third we have YL and olympian95, well done to all.

Full Result

sirnorfolkpassmore 9.4
Andrew_S 12.2
YL 13
olympian95 13
johnloony 14
sirbenjamin 15.8
Smartie 15.8
Roger Harmer 16.6
clyde 1998 17.6
haribo 18.4
froome 18.8
wallington 19.8
greenhert 20
jm 20.6
batman 21
Tony Otim 21.8
peterl 22.6
dibs 26.8
jamesmanc22 27.6
DHAA 27.6
kevinf 29.2

bigfatron 30.6
mysticrobin 31
David 31.8
heathener 34.2

For Completeness the points before penalties were

sirnorfolkpassmore 9.4
Andrew_S 12.2
YL 13
olympian95 13
johnloony 14
sirbenjamin 15.8
Smartie 15.8
Roger Harmer 16.6
clyde 1998 17.6
haribo 18.4
froome 18.8
wallington 19.8
greenhert 20
jm 20.6
jamesmanc22 20.8
DHAA 20.8
batman 21
Tony Otim 21.8
peterl 22.6
bigfatron 23.8
mysticrobin 24.2
David 25
dibs 26.8
kevinf 29.2
heathener 34.2

Thanks to all for taking part.

DHAA

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

I'd like to thank the Academy, my family, my God, and Oliver Dowden.

This award isn't just mine. It also belongs - to a much, much lesser extent - to a huge range of little people too numerous and unmemorable to mention by name.