Tiverton and Honiton - 23rd June 2022

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Parliamentary Prediction Competition for Tiverton and Honiton by election.
23rd June 2022

The 8 candidates as a reminder are:
Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party)
Andy Foan (Reform UK)
Richard Foord (Lib Dem)
Helen Hurford (Conservative)
Liz Pole (Labour)
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain)
Ben Walker (UKIP)
Gill Westcott (Green)


Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 8 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 12.5 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 6.8 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 23rd June 2022.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.


Have Fun.
DHAA

[greenhert]

To begin, here is my prediction:

Richard Foord (Liberal Democrats) 44.0%
Helen Hurford (Conservative) 37.5%
Liz Pole (Labour) 9.5%
Gill Westcott (Green) 5.5%
Andy Foan (Reform UK) 2.0%
Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party) 0.7%
Ben Walker (UKIP) 0.5%
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain) 0.3%

[kevinf]

Lib Dem 40
Con. 37
Lab. 12
Reform. 4.5
Green. 4
Ukip. 2
Heritage. 0.3
For Britain. 0.2

[peterl]

Richard Foord (Liberal Democrats) 43.8%
Helen Hurford (Conservative) 36.4%
Liz Pole (Labour) 10.4%
Gill Westcott (Green) 6.4%
Andy Foan (Reform UK) 1.6%
Ben Walker (UKIP) 0.7%
Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party) 0.5%
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain) 0.2%

[Tony Otim]

LD 42.2
Con 38.5
Lab 12.2
Grn 4.0
UKIP 1.2
Reform 1.0
Heritage 0.7
For Britain 0.2

[johnloony]

LD 53.1
Con 31.6
Lab 8.9
Grn 2.7
RefUK 2.4
UKIP 0.7
Her 0.4
ForBr 0.2

[sirbenjamin]

Richard Foord (Liberal Democrats) 48.9%
Helen Hurford (Conservative) 34.9%
Liz Pole (Labour) 7.6%
Gill Westcott (Green) 5.2%
Andy Foan (Reform UK) 2.3%
Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party) 0.5%
Ben Walker (UKIP) 0.4%
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain) 0.2%

[jamesmanc22]

Conservative 46%
Liberal Democrats 43%
Labour 6%
Green 3.0%
Reform UK 1%
Heritage Party 0.5%
UKIP 0.3%
For Britain 0.2%

Conservative Hold

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 17, 2022 21:26:08 GMT batman said:

LD 44.7
Con 38.4
Lab 11.2
Green 3.9
UKIP 1.1
For Britain 0.4
Heritage 0.3

batman

ReformUK is missing from your prediction, this will incur a 12.5 point penalty if not rectified.

DHAA

[jm]

Richard Foord (Lib Dem) 42.7%
Helen Hurford (Conservative) 41.9%
Liz Pole (Labour) 9.6%
Gill Westcott (Green) 2.4%
Andy Foan (Reform UK) 1.8%
Ben Walker (UKIP) 0.8%
Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party) 0.5%
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain) 0.3%

[mysticrobin]

Helen Hurford 42.5%
Richard Foord 41%
Liz Pole 8%
Gill Westcott 5%
Andy Foan 2%
Ben Walker 1%
Jordan Donaghue-Morgan 0.3%
Frankie Rufolo 0.2%

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jun 19, 2022 8:17:39 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Jun 17, 2022 21:26:08 GMT batman said:

LD 44.7
Con 38.4
Lab 11.2
Green 3.9
UKIP 1.1
For Britain 0.4
Heritage 0.3

batman

ReformUK is missing from your prediction, this will encure a 12.5 point penalty if not rectified.

DHAA

He could ask Mason Mount to take it 

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 19, 2022 12:35:50 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Jun 19, 2022 8:17:39 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

batman

ReformUK is missing from your prediction, this will encure a 12.5 point penalty if not rectified.

DHAA

He could ask Mason Mount to take it 

Anything that cures my spelling is allowable. 

[batman]

Jun 19, 2022 8:17:39 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Jun 17, 2022 21:26:08 GMT batman said:

LD 44.7
Con 38.4
Lab 11.2
Green 3.9
UKIP 1.1
For Britain 0.4
Heritage 0.3

batman

ReformUK is missing from your prediction, this will incur a 12.5 point penalty if not rectified.

DHAA

   

whoops, thanks. Here is my revised prediction (I'll delete the other one) :

LD 43.4
Con 37.6
Lab 10.8
Green 3.7
Reform UK 2.8
UKIP 1.0
For Britain 0.4
Heritage 0.3

[johnloony]

Jun 14, 2022 9:04:36 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Parliamentary Prediction Competition for Tiverton and Honiton by election.
23rd June 2022

…
Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 8 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 12.5 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 6.8 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 23rd June 2022.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.


Have Fun.
DHAA

I curious am. What is the logic behind the otherwise apparently arbitrary choice of 6.8 as a number? In the Wakefield prediction thread, it’s 6.6, which is sort-of logical because it’s the reciprocal of the number of candidates.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 19, 2022 19:33:14 GMT johnloony said:

Jun 14, 2022 9:04:36 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Parliamentary Prediction Competition for Tiverton and Honiton by election.
23rd June 2022

…
Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 8 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 12.5 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 6.8 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 23rd June 2022.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.


Have Fun.
DHAA

I curious am. What is the logic behind the otherwise apparently arbitrary choice of 6.8 as a number? In the Wakefield prediction thread, it’s 6.6, which is sort-of logical because it’s the reciprocal of the number of candidates.

It's a bit arbitrary, I thought 12.5 was too high and 6.25 a bit low. 6.8 is around typical for previous competitions. 

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Conservative 41.2%
Liberal Democrat 40.9%
Labour 10.5%
Green 5%
UKIP 1%
Reform 0.7%
Heritage 0.5%
For Britain 0.2%

[YL]

Lib Dem 46.8%
Con 41.7%
Green 4.5%
Lab 4.2%
Reform 1.9%
UKIP 0.5%
Heritage 0.3%
For Britain 0.1%

[olympian95]

Heritage Jordan Donoghue-Morgan 0.8%
Reform UK Andy Foan 1.6%
Liberal Democrats Richard Foord 57.7%
Conservative Helen Hurford 32.3%
Labour Liz Pole 3.9%
For Britain Frankie Rufolo 0.5%
UKIP Ben Walker 1.0%
Green Gill Westcott 2.2%

[bigfatron]

Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party) - 0.2%
Andy Foan (Reform UK) - 1.5%
Richard Foord (Lib Dem) - 41.5%
Helen Hurford (Conservative) - 42.0%
Liz Pole (Labour) - 9.4%
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain) = 0.2%
Ben Walker (UKIP) - 0.4%
Gill Westcott (Green) - 4.8%