Post by Robert Waller on Jun 10, 2022 18:34:07 GMT
The River Weaver in west Cheshire rises in the Peckforton Hills (in Eddisbury constituency) and flows into the Mersey at Weston Point (currently in the Halton parliamentary division), but for the most part it runs through this eponymous seat. If we seek to characterise this constituency, it might be argued to be the most ‘salty’ in Britain – and its replacement is, in a way, set to be even more so.
That is because historically here we have the centre of the English salt extraction industry. (The other significant salt works were at Droitwich, Worcestershire and Teesside). According to Miners, Quarrymen and Saltworkers (ed. Raphael Samuel, 1977), the saltlands of Cheshire occupy an area roughly thirty miles by ten along the Weaver valley. Towards the centre, where the rivers Dane and Weaver converge, is Northwich, which covers the neighbourhoods of Castle, Winnington, Leftwich, Witton and Rudheath as well as the separate community of Hartford. Some six miles to the south, created by an amalgamation of the older townships of Wharton and Over, is Winsford. These towns were literally built on salt, the main beds being between 100 and 350 feet below the surface, and forming underground brine streams. Mining and extrication since Roman times have caused extensive subsidence and that in turn has created a surface landscape of lakes known locally as flashes – in addition to the mining equipment, spoil, and transport infrastructure starting with canalisation, including that of the Weaver itself.
The salt mining itself may have ended now, but its consequences remain and literally shape the character of the Weaver Vale seat. For example, one industry that followed the salt, since the late 19th century, was chemicals, particularly alkalis – principally in the form of the Brunner Mond company, centred on a huge works at Winnington, whose dominance of employment running well into the 20th century turned Northwich into a virtual company town. Brunner Mond was a key component of the formation of ICI in 1926, and after a series of sales the Winnington works was owned by the Indian giant Tata until its closure in 2014.
Weaver Vale can be characterized since its creation in 1997 as a Labour-inclined marginal. There was no surprise that Labour won it (progressively less comfortably) in the three Blair general elections; they won in most places. But it was gained by the Conservative Graham Evans by 991 votes in 2010 when David Cameron came into office, and held by 806 in 2015 when the Tories obtained a majority. However Labour regained it in Theresa May’s (literally) ill-advised election of 2017, and Mike Amesbury held on by a margin of 562 votes in December 2019. Given Labour’s overall disaster of that year, retaining only 202 seats in all, one might ask why they won here in Weaver Vale.
The answer lies largely in location and boundaries. Weaver Vale, for all that we can try to find a unifying factor in the river itself, is actually a typical ragbag of a seat created when Cheshire earned an extra constituency in the review that came into force in 1997. It included territory from four existing divisions – Eddisbury, Halton, Tatton and Warrington South. This was disparate in political terms. The Labour strength is concentrated in two areas, Northwich (ex-Tatton, though there was a seat named after the town from 1885 to 1983); and the eastern wards of the expanded town of Runcorn, which are in the Halton District. The latter really are very strongly Labour, and the core of their ability to win Weaver Vale more often than not. For example, in the May 2022 local elections for Halton district, Labour achieved a 76% share of the vote in Halton Lea ward in a four way contest in which the Conservatives finished second with 12%. Labour also attained 71% in Norton South & Preston Brook, and win Norton North too. The Tories did take Daresbury, their only success in the whole of Halton, and the Liberal Democrats were first in Beechwood.
In the most recent Cheshire West and Chester elections in May 2019 Labour did win all the seats in the core of Northwich – Leftwich, Winnington and Castle, and, most convincingly, Witton with a 63% share. However these were the limits of the party’s success. The Weaver Vale seat extends across a broad swathe of rural Cheshire. To the west, even beyond Runcorn, it reaches the small towns of Frodsham and Helsby, tucked below its sandstone hill. Frodsham voted Conservative over Labour by around two to one, while Helsby easily elected its Green candidate. Moving in an easterly direction we come to two large rural wards, Sandstone (centred on the village of Kingsley) and Weaver & Cuddington. An independent topped the poll in the latter in 2019, but in both the Tories were well ahead among the main parties. Finally there are three wards in a suburban ring around the core of Northwich, all of which are also Conservative: Davenham, Moulton & Kingsmead, Hartford & Greenbank and Rudheath. Indeed Hartford in particular has even developed something of a tradition of long-distance commuting as far as London due to its station being situated on the fast Liverpool-Birmingham main line, which has led to the creation there of a number of small upmarket estates such as
www.apexcd.co.uk/witton-park
Therefore Weaver Vale is basically a Conservative seat with two isolated but strong Labour pockets.
One reason why these Labour areas, apparently in a minority, have more often than not been strong enough to take Weaver Vale as a whole is that the Runcorn section is definitely within the Merseyside sub-region, with its persistent and strong antipathy to the Conservative party. However all is likely to change at the next election. In their proposals for the North West region, the Boundary Commission has recommended the creation of a Runcorn and Helsby seat that takes the whole western section of Weaver Vale – in fact, including the majority of this seat’s voters. The eastern section would form the core of a new seat that was in the initial proposals to be named Northwich. This would also have taken a third of Eddisbury’s electors and a quarter of those from Tatton:
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/2021-06-08-North-West-Initial-Proposals-44.-Northwich-CC.pdf
However, in the revised proposals revealed in November 2022 the rural wards added to the north and west of the proposed Northwich from Eddisbury and Tatton were removed and replaced with the fifth and final Winsford ward and also the town of Middlewich, currently in the Congleton constituency. The name was also changed to the more anodyne and characterless Mid Cheshire, but the seat does have the virtue of uniting the 'salt' towns as well as not dividing Winsford. Middlewich was given the name Salinae by the Romans because of its salt deposits, which shaped its character for the best part of two thousand years.
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/b65f7782-658b-4c4a-9cba-59c16c807f77/a3-maps/NW_42_Mid%20Cheshire%20CC.pdf
The new Mid Cheshire has been estimated to have had a notional Tory lead in 2019. However the section transferred from Eddisbury is not typical, as it is mainly the town of Winsford, which is Labour’s best area by far in the current Eddisbury, with a large number of ‘Liverpool overspill’ estates established from the 1960s onwards. Middlewich too is very unlike the rest of Congleton: in the most recent Cheshire East council elections in May 2019 its ward elected three Labour councillors with a share of over 50% compared with 22% for the Conservatives. Therefore Mid Cheshire should be regarded as a genuine target in a good year for the Labour party - the sort of year they will need if they are ever to win an overall majority again, give the political transformation of their former stronghold of Scotland. Northwich existed as a constituency for nigh on a century, 98 years to be exact, but Labour never quite won it. In 1945, John Foster beat them in his first contest there by just 15 votes. In 1966, the now Sir John held on again, by 703. Could Labour ever actually crack this salty nut? The creation of the extra Mid Cheshire constituency in the boundary review is not absolutely certain to mean an additional Conservative seat.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 15.9% 389/650
Owner-occupied 69.8% 228/650
Private rented 10.3% 564/650
Social rented 17.9% 265/650
White 97.6% 165/650
Black 0.2% 539/650
Asian 1.0% 514/650
Managerial & professional 34.4%
Routine & Semi-routine 26.9%
Degree level 27.6% 257/650
No qualifications 21.6% 382/650
Students 6.2% 439/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 70.1% /573
Private rented 13.4% /573
Social rented 16.5% /573
White 96.1%
Black 0.3%
Asian 1.5%
Managerial & professional 35.7% 203/573
Routine & Semi-routine 24.2% 273/573
Degree level 33.6% 233/573
No qualifications 16.7% 348/573
General Election 2019: Weaver Vale
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Mike Amesbury 22,772 44.9 −6.6
Conservative Adam Wordsworth 22,210 43.8 +0.1
Liberal Democrats Daniela Parker 3,300 6.5 +3.3
Brexit Party Nicholas Goulding 1,380 2.7 New
Green Paul Bowers 1,051 2.1 +0.5
Lab Majority 562 1.1 −6.7
2019 electorate 70,551
Turnout 50,713 71.9 −1.4
Labour hold
Swing 3.3 Lab to C
That is because historically here we have the centre of the English salt extraction industry. (The other significant salt works were at Droitwich, Worcestershire and Teesside). According to Miners, Quarrymen and Saltworkers (ed. Raphael Samuel, 1977), the saltlands of Cheshire occupy an area roughly thirty miles by ten along the Weaver valley. Towards the centre, where the rivers Dane and Weaver converge, is Northwich, which covers the neighbourhoods of Castle, Winnington, Leftwich, Witton and Rudheath as well as the separate community of Hartford. Some six miles to the south, created by an amalgamation of the older townships of Wharton and Over, is Winsford. These towns were literally built on salt, the main beds being between 100 and 350 feet below the surface, and forming underground brine streams. Mining and extrication since Roman times have caused extensive subsidence and that in turn has created a surface landscape of lakes known locally as flashes – in addition to the mining equipment, spoil, and transport infrastructure starting with canalisation, including that of the Weaver itself.
The salt mining itself may have ended now, but its consequences remain and literally shape the character of the Weaver Vale seat. For example, one industry that followed the salt, since the late 19th century, was chemicals, particularly alkalis – principally in the form of the Brunner Mond company, centred on a huge works at Winnington, whose dominance of employment running well into the 20th century turned Northwich into a virtual company town. Brunner Mond was a key component of the formation of ICI in 1926, and after a series of sales the Winnington works was owned by the Indian giant Tata until its closure in 2014.
Weaver Vale can be characterized since its creation in 1997 as a Labour-inclined marginal. There was no surprise that Labour won it (progressively less comfortably) in the three Blair general elections; they won in most places. But it was gained by the Conservative Graham Evans by 991 votes in 2010 when David Cameron came into office, and held by 806 in 2015 when the Tories obtained a majority. However Labour regained it in Theresa May’s (literally) ill-advised election of 2017, and Mike Amesbury held on by a margin of 562 votes in December 2019. Given Labour’s overall disaster of that year, retaining only 202 seats in all, one might ask why they won here in Weaver Vale.
The answer lies largely in location and boundaries. Weaver Vale, for all that we can try to find a unifying factor in the river itself, is actually a typical ragbag of a seat created when Cheshire earned an extra constituency in the review that came into force in 1997. It included territory from four existing divisions – Eddisbury, Halton, Tatton and Warrington South. This was disparate in political terms. The Labour strength is concentrated in two areas, Northwich (ex-Tatton, though there was a seat named after the town from 1885 to 1983); and the eastern wards of the expanded town of Runcorn, which are in the Halton District. The latter really are very strongly Labour, and the core of their ability to win Weaver Vale more often than not. For example, in the May 2022 local elections for Halton district, Labour achieved a 76% share of the vote in Halton Lea ward in a four way contest in which the Conservatives finished second with 12%. Labour also attained 71% in Norton South & Preston Brook, and win Norton North too. The Tories did take Daresbury, their only success in the whole of Halton, and the Liberal Democrats were first in Beechwood.
In the most recent Cheshire West and Chester elections in May 2019 Labour did win all the seats in the core of Northwich – Leftwich, Winnington and Castle, and, most convincingly, Witton with a 63% share. However these were the limits of the party’s success. The Weaver Vale seat extends across a broad swathe of rural Cheshire. To the west, even beyond Runcorn, it reaches the small towns of Frodsham and Helsby, tucked below its sandstone hill. Frodsham voted Conservative over Labour by around two to one, while Helsby easily elected its Green candidate. Moving in an easterly direction we come to two large rural wards, Sandstone (centred on the village of Kingsley) and Weaver & Cuddington. An independent topped the poll in the latter in 2019, but in both the Tories were well ahead among the main parties. Finally there are three wards in a suburban ring around the core of Northwich, all of which are also Conservative: Davenham, Moulton & Kingsmead, Hartford & Greenbank and Rudheath. Indeed Hartford in particular has even developed something of a tradition of long-distance commuting as far as London due to its station being situated on the fast Liverpool-Birmingham main line, which has led to the creation there of a number of small upmarket estates such as
www.apexcd.co.uk/witton-park
Therefore Weaver Vale is basically a Conservative seat with two isolated but strong Labour pockets.
One reason why these Labour areas, apparently in a minority, have more often than not been strong enough to take Weaver Vale as a whole is that the Runcorn section is definitely within the Merseyside sub-region, with its persistent and strong antipathy to the Conservative party. However all is likely to change at the next election. In their proposals for the North West region, the Boundary Commission has recommended the creation of a Runcorn and Helsby seat that takes the whole western section of Weaver Vale – in fact, including the majority of this seat’s voters. The eastern section would form the core of a new seat that was in the initial proposals to be named Northwich. This would also have taken a third of Eddisbury’s electors and a quarter of those from Tatton:
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/2021-06-08-North-West-Initial-Proposals-44.-Northwich-CC.pdf
However, in the revised proposals revealed in November 2022 the rural wards added to the north and west of the proposed Northwich from Eddisbury and Tatton were removed and replaced with the fifth and final Winsford ward and also the town of Middlewich, currently in the Congleton constituency. The name was also changed to the more anodyne and characterless Mid Cheshire, but the seat does have the virtue of uniting the 'salt' towns as well as not dividing Winsford. Middlewich was given the name Salinae by the Romans because of its salt deposits, which shaped its character for the best part of two thousand years.
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/b65f7782-658b-4c4a-9cba-59c16c807f77/a3-maps/NW_42_Mid%20Cheshire%20CC.pdf
The new Mid Cheshire has been estimated to have had a notional Tory lead in 2019. However the section transferred from Eddisbury is not typical, as it is mainly the town of Winsford, which is Labour’s best area by far in the current Eddisbury, with a large number of ‘Liverpool overspill’ estates established from the 1960s onwards. Middlewich too is very unlike the rest of Congleton: in the most recent Cheshire East council elections in May 2019 its ward elected three Labour councillors with a share of over 50% compared with 22% for the Conservatives. Therefore Mid Cheshire should be regarded as a genuine target in a good year for the Labour party - the sort of year they will need if they are ever to win an overall majority again, give the political transformation of their former stronghold of Scotland. Northwich existed as a constituency for nigh on a century, 98 years to be exact, but Labour never quite won it. In 1945, John Foster beat them in his first contest there by just 15 votes. In 1966, the now Sir John held on again, by 703. Could Labour ever actually crack this salty nut? The creation of the extra Mid Cheshire constituency in the boundary review is not absolutely certain to mean an additional Conservative seat.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 15.9% 389/650
Owner-occupied 69.8% 228/650
Private rented 10.3% 564/650
Social rented 17.9% 265/650
White 97.6% 165/650
Black 0.2% 539/650
Asian 1.0% 514/650
Managerial & professional 34.4%
Routine & Semi-routine 26.9%
Degree level 27.6% 257/650
No qualifications 21.6% 382/650
Students 6.2% 439/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 70.1% /573
Private rented 13.4% /573
Social rented 16.5% /573
White 96.1%
Black 0.3%
Asian 1.5%
Managerial & professional 35.7% 203/573
Routine & Semi-routine 24.2% 273/573
Degree level 33.6% 233/573
No qualifications 16.7% 348/573
General Election 2019: Weaver Vale
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Mike Amesbury 22,772 44.9 −6.6
Conservative Adam Wordsworth 22,210 43.8 +0.1
Liberal Democrats Daniela Parker 3,300 6.5 +3.3
Brexit Party Nicholas Goulding 1,380 2.7 New
Green Paul Bowers 1,051 2.1 +0.5
Lab Majority 562 1.1 −6.7
2019 electorate 70,551
Turnout 50,713 71.9 −1.4
Labour hold
Swing 3.3 Lab to C
