Post by Robert Waller on Jun 8, 2022 18:34:34 GMT
Peterborough may not be the most glamorous of places; but it has one of the most dramatic of electoral histories. For example, it has had four different MPs since the beginning of 2017, and that is only the latest set of developments in an epic story. Parts of Peterborough give clear evidence that it was once a medieval city, with a genuine and very distinguished 12th century Early English Gothic cathedral dominating a fine Close and town square. It became a parliamentary borough in 1541, returning two members, quite separately from those representing the unique Soke associated with the city and diocese for centuries before that, which was included in Northamptonshire for parliamentary purposes. Yet the city of Peterborough is also a New Town, literally, and has been subject to massive housing developments which has led its population to rise from 50,000 in 1951, 60,000 in 1961 and 70,000 in 1981 to over 180,000 in 2011 (covering a somewhat larger area, but nevertheless representing a very significant inflow). Despite this transformation though, there is one thing that has not changed. Peterborough was a key marginal in the 1960s - and it still is now.
The Peterborough constituency has a distinguished record as the site of ultra-close general election battles. Having previously been won by Labour only in 1929 and 1945, in 1966 Peterborough produced jointly the closest contest of any parliamentary division in post-war elections (together with Carmarthen in February 1974) before Winchester's 2 votes in 1997. The sitting Conservative MP, Sir Harmar Nicholls, defeated Labour’s Michael Ward by just three votes. Seven recounts were necessary. After two more defeats (in February 1974 by 22 votes), Michael Ward finally gained the seat at his fourth attempt n October of the same year, with a princely majority of 1,848. He lost it after one term to Brian Mawhinney, later Chairman of the Conservative Party. Labour regained Peterborough in the person of Helen Brinton (later Clark), who was in turn ousted by Stewart Jackson who was member here from 2005 to 2017.
That was when the pace of electoral change really quickened. Jackson was beaten by Fiona Onasanya in the ‘Corbyn surge’ election of 2017 (Labour majority here 607), but the new MP was found guilty of perverting the course of justice by avoiding a speeding prosecution in December 2018, and expelled from the Labour party and sentenced to three months in prison in January 2019. Removed from Parliament by the first ever successful recall petition under the 2015 Recall of MPs Act, her disgrace led to a byelection in June 2019 that Labour did well to win, under the circumstances; Lisa Forbes won by a majority of 683 over the Brexit party, followed by 13 other candidates headed by the Conservatives’ Paul Bristow in third place, with a 21% share, and extending all the way down to Bobby Smith of the Give Me Back Elmo party with 5 votes. However In December 2019 Bristow advanced to first, defeating Lisa Forbes by 2,580 and ending her 6 month tenure as MP. This represented the seventh change of party in Peterborough in 45 years.
The marginality of the seat has remained constant despite some major boundary changes. For example, in 1997 due to the considerable expansion of housing and population, the areas of Peterborough south of the River Nene such as Fletton, Orton Waterville, Orton Longueville and Stanground were transferred to a new and additional North West Cambridgeshire constituency. Much of this territory came as a result of the designation in 1968 of the cathedral city on the edge of the Fens as one of the last New Towns, also involving the acceptance of London overspill. The seat is still growing, although the development is very much concentrated in the private sector nowadays, and new hi-tech and high-skill industries have been brought in. The electrification of the main east coast railway line has brought the city to within an hour’s commuting distance of London.
There have been significant other developments in the last half century too. Peterborough has received two different types of migrant. A substantial population of Asian origin, mainly Muslim, have settled, particularly in the older housing terraces of the city centre. In 2011 the ethnic pattern of Central ward was 49% Asian and 47% Muslim; Park ward 30% Asian, Ravensthorpe 22%. More recently Peterborough has become one of the centres for Eastern Europeans taking advantage of the opportunities afforded by EU expansion. In the 2011 census, within the constituency as a whole 12% of the population were classed as ‘white other’, which means not identifying either with any of the four constituents of the UK, or Irish, or gypsy/traveller. It had the 7th highest proportion born in those countries acceding to the UK between 2001 and 2011. These figures will have changed since then, but the impact is clear. For example, one of the most disparate and cosmopolitan neighbourhoods anywhere is to be found in Peterborough’s North and Central wards, with the best part of 20% born in the ‘new EU’ as well as a vibrant British Asian community.
However there is also a wide variety across the constituency. There are the former council estate wards like Dogsthorpe in the north east of the city, which still had a social housing proportion of 40% in 2011. Paston was similar, with a 33%, and Bretton North and South (now one ward not two) both approached 30%. On the other hand there are very attractive residential areas within the old city too, particularly towards the west and south west, West ward being 78% owner occupied and 40% professional and managerial. There is some really luxurious housing here, as a Google view trip along roads such as Westwood Park or Thorpe Avenue will show. Indeed the latter was even for many years the residence of the comedian Ernie Wise; a canny man who negotiated that he should keep 60% of the earnings compared with his comedy partner Eric Morecambe’s 40% (the explanation was that Ernie handled all the business side), Peterborough being well placed near the A1 road and main east coast railway networks, and roughly half way between London and Ernie’s city of origin, Leeds.*
There are yet more different kinds of neighbourhoods to describe. At the north end of Peterborough we find Werrington, a village swallowed up by the rapid expansion well to the north of the A447 and along the newer Werrington Parkway. Rather oddly, although a very substantial part of what most people would call Peterborough itself is not included in the constituency (pretty much everything south of the Nene, including many ‘New Town’ and even newer neighbourhoods but also the much older Fletton, such as the London Road stadium of Peterborough FC, late of the Championship – for all this see the NW Cambridgeshire entry), the seat discussed here extends to the east way beyond the original city boundaries. It encompasses a large chunk of ‘fenland’ countryside and the small communities of Eye, Thorney and Newborough and extends as far as Lower Knarr Fen and Ruff Fen. This section covers around three quarters of the Peterborough constituency by area, but only one ward and 7,222 electors. The result is a very odd look on the map, even more so given that Peterborough is the only seat in Cambridgeshire where the most recent boundary commission suggests no significant changes, either in their initial proposals nor their revised report of November 2022, despite suggestions led by the Conservative party to split Peterborough into North and South constituencies.
As is to be expected, the super-marginal Peterborough has a mosaic of political preferences among its constituent wards. In May 2022 Labour won in Central, Dogsthorpe, East, North and Park – essentially all in the ‘old’ inner urban core of the city. North was the most spectacular result as it was a gain from the Conservatives – and Labour achieved 72% in a straight fight with the Tories. The Liberal Democrats held Paston & Walton and Gunthorpe ward, which is among the modern northern extensions between Paston and Werrington. The Conservatives held on to Bretton and rather surprisingly gained Ravensthorpe, where second place was closely contested between Labour and the Independent Edward Murphy, a sitting councillor elected as Labour and former parliamentary candidate for Peterborough in 2010. They also won the extensive rural Eye, Thorney and Newborough ward by a margin of over two to one. A localist group, ‘Werrington First’ also easily triumphed there. West was not contested in 2022, as there are some wards (mainly villages in the NW Cambs seat) which do not have three councillors, but it was easily retained by the Tories in May 2021. Overall there was no clear pattern in 2022 and nothing to suggest that Peterborough does not retain its politically marginal, and even unpredictable, status. Across the city council as a whole the Conservatives polled 36% to Labour’s 35%, but that includes many wards outside this constituency. In those within it, in May 2022 Labour would have been ahead by less than a thousand, but that is distorted by some unusual local candidature pattern and the absence of West, the best Tory ward.
What makes Peterborough so consistently close between the two largest parties nationally? There are clearly more routine/semi-routine workers than professional or managerial; indeed it has the 3rd highest proportion of all 650 seats in ‘elementary’ occupations. This used to favour Labour but did not in 2019. Owner occupation is well below the national average, both private renting and social housing above. It has a much more mixed ethnic pattern. The terminal educational age is also atypical, with more without advanced qualifications and fewer with degrees. All the above would traditionally suggest Labour strengths. But we have not been in a traditional age recently. Those class and education variables have not favored Labour of late. One clue is that the Faragistas came within a thousand votes of winning here in the June 2019 parliamentary byelection – and yes, there were the specific circumstances of the recall petition, but it is also clear that Peterborough (over 61% Leave in 2016) wanted ‘Brexit done’. There may well have been some reaction against the east European presence (and those residents themselves probably do not vote in high numbers). In the 21st century Labour have not done well in ‘New Towns’ and where there have been large private housing developments. Therefore the win for Boris Johnson’s party in December of that year can be no surprise. Under effectively unchanged boundaries, though, Peterborough must be a key Labour target at the next General Election – at present yet another change of hand seems likely, but this is indeed a complex as well as a key seat, and predictions are fraught with difficulty.
*Eric, of course, was famously a resident of Harpenden. He lived sequentially in two addresses in the West Common neighbourhood, which is in Harpenden South ward. A good friend of mine lived next door to one of these, and knew his voting preferences; but I shall not divulge, as I wouldn't want approximately half of the fans of that delightful gentleman to be in any way disappointed ...
2011 Census
Age 65+ 13.9% 512/650
Owner-occupied 57.6% 513/650
Private rented 19.0% 143/650
Social rented 21.4% 179/650
White 77.4% 539/650
White UK 64.2%
‘Other white’ 12.2%
Black 2.3% 162/650
Asian 16.4% 60 /650
Country of birth: EU accession states 2001-11 9.5% 7/650
Managerial & professional 22.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 34.2%
Employed in administrative and support services 8.4% /650
Elementary occupations 19.0% 3/650
‘Very good’ health 42.0% 609/650
‘Good’ health 38.4% 1/650
Degree level 17.7% 574/650
No qualifications 27.8% 151/650
Students 6.9% 314/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 53.8% 468/573
Private rented 25.6% 99/573 significant increase
Social rented 20.6% 138/573
White 69.6%
‘Other white’ 15.8%
Black 3.7%
Asian 19.7%
Managerial & professional 23.3% 511/573
Routine & Semi-routine 33.1% 28/573
Degree level 23.6% 518/573
No qualifications 25.4% 45/573
General Election 2019: Peterborough
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Paul Bristow 22,334 46.7 -0.1
Labour Lisa Forbes 19,754 41.3 -6.8
Liberal Democrats Beki Sellick 2,334 4.9 +1.6
Brexit Party Mike Greene 2,127 4.4
Green Joseph Wells 728 1.5 -0.3
Independent Luke Ferguson 260 0.5
CPA Tom Rogers 151 0.3
Monster Raving Loony The Very Raving Mr P 113 0.2
C Majority 2,580 5.4
Changes in share are from 2017 general election
2019 electorate 72,560
Turnout 47,801 65.9 -0.8
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 2017 - December 2019 3.3 Lab to C
The Peterborough constituency has a distinguished record as the site of ultra-close general election battles. Having previously been won by Labour only in 1929 and 1945, in 1966 Peterborough produced jointly the closest contest of any parliamentary division in post-war elections (together with Carmarthen in February 1974) before Winchester's 2 votes in 1997. The sitting Conservative MP, Sir Harmar Nicholls, defeated Labour’s Michael Ward by just three votes. Seven recounts were necessary. After two more defeats (in February 1974 by 22 votes), Michael Ward finally gained the seat at his fourth attempt n October of the same year, with a princely majority of 1,848. He lost it after one term to Brian Mawhinney, later Chairman of the Conservative Party. Labour regained Peterborough in the person of Helen Brinton (later Clark), who was in turn ousted by Stewart Jackson who was member here from 2005 to 2017.
That was when the pace of electoral change really quickened. Jackson was beaten by Fiona Onasanya in the ‘Corbyn surge’ election of 2017 (Labour majority here 607), but the new MP was found guilty of perverting the course of justice by avoiding a speeding prosecution in December 2018, and expelled from the Labour party and sentenced to three months in prison in January 2019. Removed from Parliament by the first ever successful recall petition under the 2015 Recall of MPs Act, her disgrace led to a byelection in June 2019 that Labour did well to win, under the circumstances; Lisa Forbes won by a majority of 683 over the Brexit party, followed by 13 other candidates headed by the Conservatives’ Paul Bristow in third place, with a 21% share, and extending all the way down to Bobby Smith of the Give Me Back Elmo party with 5 votes. However In December 2019 Bristow advanced to first, defeating Lisa Forbes by 2,580 and ending her 6 month tenure as MP. This represented the seventh change of party in Peterborough in 45 years.
The marginality of the seat has remained constant despite some major boundary changes. For example, in 1997 due to the considerable expansion of housing and population, the areas of Peterborough south of the River Nene such as Fletton, Orton Waterville, Orton Longueville and Stanground were transferred to a new and additional North West Cambridgeshire constituency. Much of this territory came as a result of the designation in 1968 of the cathedral city on the edge of the Fens as one of the last New Towns, also involving the acceptance of London overspill. The seat is still growing, although the development is very much concentrated in the private sector nowadays, and new hi-tech and high-skill industries have been brought in. The electrification of the main east coast railway line has brought the city to within an hour’s commuting distance of London.
There have been significant other developments in the last half century too. Peterborough has received two different types of migrant. A substantial population of Asian origin, mainly Muslim, have settled, particularly in the older housing terraces of the city centre. In 2011 the ethnic pattern of Central ward was 49% Asian and 47% Muslim; Park ward 30% Asian, Ravensthorpe 22%. More recently Peterborough has become one of the centres for Eastern Europeans taking advantage of the opportunities afforded by EU expansion. In the 2011 census, within the constituency as a whole 12% of the population were classed as ‘white other’, which means not identifying either with any of the four constituents of the UK, or Irish, or gypsy/traveller. It had the 7th highest proportion born in those countries acceding to the UK between 2001 and 2011. These figures will have changed since then, but the impact is clear. For example, one of the most disparate and cosmopolitan neighbourhoods anywhere is to be found in Peterborough’s North and Central wards, with the best part of 20% born in the ‘new EU’ as well as a vibrant British Asian community.
However there is also a wide variety across the constituency. There are the former council estate wards like Dogsthorpe in the north east of the city, which still had a social housing proportion of 40% in 2011. Paston was similar, with a 33%, and Bretton North and South (now one ward not two) both approached 30%. On the other hand there are very attractive residential areas within the old city too, particularly towards the west and south west, West ward being 78% owner occupied and 40% professional and managerial. There is some really luxurious housing here, as a Google view trip along roads such as Westwood Park or Thorpe Avenue will show. Indeed the latter was even for many years the residence of the comedian Ernie Wise; a canny man who negotiated that he should keep 60% of the earnings compared with his comedy partner Eric Morecambe’s 40% (the explanation was that Ernie handled all the business side), Peterborough being well placed near the A1 road and main east coast railway networks, and roughly half way between London and Ernie’s city of origin, Leeds.*
There are yet more different kinds of neighbourhoods to describe. At the north end of Peterborough we find Werrington, a village swallowed up by the rapid expansion well to the north of the A447 and along the newer Werrington Parkway. Rather oddly, although a very substantial part of what most people would call Peterborough itself is not included in the constituency (pretty much everything south of the Nene, including many ‘New Town’ and even newer neighbourhoods but also the much older Fletton, such as the London Road stadium of Peterborough FC, late of the Championship – for all this see the NW Cambridgeshire entry), the seat discussed here extends to the east way beyond the original city boundaries. It encompasses a large chunk of ‘fenland’ countryside and the small communities of Eye, Thorney and Newborough and extends as far as Lower Knarr Fen and Ruff Fen. This section covers around three quarters of the Peterborough constituency by area, but only one ward and 7,222 electors. The result is a very odd look on the map, even more so given that Peterborough is the only seat in Cambridgeshire where the most recent boundary commission suggests no significant changes, either in their initial proposals nor their revised report of November 2022, despite suggestions led by the Conservative party to split Peterborough into North and South constituencies.
As is to be expected, the super-marginal Peterborough has a mosaic of political preferences among its constituent wards. In May 2022 Labour won in Central, Dogsthorpe, East, North and Park – essentially all in the ‘old’ inner urban core of the city. North was the most spectacular result as it was a gain from the Conservatives – and Labour achieved 72% in a straight fight with the Tories. The Liberal Democrats held Paston & Walton and Gunthorpe ward, which is among the modern northern extensions between Paston and Werrington. The Conservatives held on to Bretton and rather surprisingly gained Ravensthorpe, where second place was closely contested between Labour and the Independent Edward Murphy, a sitting councillor elected as Labour and former parliamentary candidate for Peterborough in 2010. They also won the extensive rural Eye, Thorney and Newborough ward by a margin of over two to one. A localist group, ‘Werrington First’ also easily triumphed there. West was not contested in 2022, as there are some wards (mainly villages in the NW Cambs seat) which do not have three councillors, but it was easily retained by the Tories in May 2021. Overall there was no clear pattern in 2022 and nothing to suggest that Peterborough does not retain its politically marginal, and even unpredictable, status. Across the city council as a whole the Conservatives polled 36% to Labour’s 35%, but that includes many wards outside this constituency. In those within it, in May 2022 Labour would have been ahead by less than a thousand, but that is distorted by some unusual local candidature pattern and the absence of West, the best Tory ward.
What makes Peterborough so consistently close between the two largest parties nationally? There are clearly more routine/semi-routine workers than professional or managerial; indeed it has the 3rd highest proportion of all 650 seats in ‘elementary’ occupations. This used to favour Labour but did not in 2019. Owner occupation is well below the national average, both private renting and social housing above. It has a much more mixed ethnic pattern. The terminal educational age is also atypical, with more without advanced qualifications and fewer with degrees. All the above would traditionally suggest Labour strengths. But we have not been in a traditional age recently. Those class and education variables have not favored Labour of late. One clue is that the Faragistas came within a thousand votes of winning here in the June 2019 parliamentary byelection – and yes, there were the specific circumstances of the recall petition, but it is also clear that Peterborough (over 61% Leave in 2016) wanted ‘Brexit done’. There may well have been some reaction against the east European presence (and those residents themselves probably do not vote in high numbers). In the 21st century Labour have not done well in ‘New Towns’ and where there have been large private housing developments. Therefore the win for Boris Johnson’s party in December of that year can be no surprise. Under effectively unchanged boundaries, though, Peterborough must be a key Labour target at the next General Election – at present yet another change of hand seems likely, but this is indeed a complex as well as a key seat, and predictions are fraught with difficulty.
*Eric, of course, was famously a resident of Harpenden. He lived sequentially in two addresses in the West Common neighbourhood, which is in Harpenden South ward. A good friend of mine lived next door to one of these, and knew his voting preferences; but I shall not divulge, as I wouldn't want approximately half of the fans of that delightful gentleman to be in any way disappointed ...
2011 Census
Age 65+ 13.9% 512/650
Owner-occupied 57.6% 513/650
Private rented 19.0% 143/650
Social rented 21.4% 179/650
White 77.4% 539/650
White UK 64.2%
‘Other white’ 12.2%
Black 2.3% 162/650
Asian 16.4% 60 /650
Country of birth: EU accession states 2001-11 9.5% 7/650
Managerial & professional 22.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 34.2%
Employed in administrative and support services 8.4% /650
Elementary occupations 19.0% 3/650
‘Very good’ health 42.0% 609/650
‘Good’ health 38.4% 1/650
Degree level 17.7% 574/650
No qualifications 27.8% 151/650
Students 6.9% 314/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 53.8% 468/573
Private rented 25.6% 99/573 significant increase
Social rented 20.6% 138/573
White 69.6%
‘Other white’ 15.8%
Black 3.7%
Asian 19.7%
Managerial & professional 23.3% 511/573
Routine & Semi-routine 33.1% 28/573
Degree level 23.6% 518/573
No qualifications 25.4% 45/573
General Election 2019: Peterborough
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Paul Bristow 22,334 46.7 -0.1
Labour Lisa Forbes 19,754 41.3 -6.8
Liberal Democrats Beki Sellick 2,334 4.9 +1.6
Brexit Party Mike Greene 2,127 4.4
Green Joseph Wells 728 1.5 -0.3
Independent Luke Ferguson 260 0.5
CPA Tom Rogers 151 0.3
Monster Raving Loony The Very Raving Mr P 113 0.2
C Majority 2,580 5.4
Changes in share are from 2017 general election
2019 electorate 72,560
Turnout 47,801 65.9 -0.8
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 2017 - December 2019 3.3 Lab to C
