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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 29, 2022 14:53:17 GMT
One seat for Jersey and one covering both Guernsey and the other Channel Islands would seem the logical option. Would continue the destruction of our Parliamentary proportionality - this is one good reason why the islands are suited to self-government in the vast majority of cases. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Jun 29, 2022 15:07:26 GMT
One seat for Jersey and one covering both Guernsey and the other Channel Islands would seem the logical option. Would continue the destruction of our Parliamentary proportionality - this is one good reason why the islands are suited to self-government in the vast majority of cases. Can't see how it would be different to the Isle of Wight, Western Isles, Shetland Isles and Orkney Isles having their own seats and being excluded from general proportionality rules. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 29, 2022 15:21:29 GMT
Would continue the destruction of our Parliamentary proportionality - this is one good reason why the islands are suited to self-government in the vast majority of cases. Can't see how it would be different to the Isle of Wight, Western Isles, Shetland Isles and Orkney Isles having their own seats and being excluded from general proportionality rules. The latter 3 are a significant distance from the mainland or each other and would require the seat to stretch hundreds of sq. km. I disagree with the IoW and Ynys Mon having their own or split seats, especially egregious in the latter case given Bangor and Caernarfon have direct or proximal fixed transport links to Anglesey. For the IoW, you can make a case based on the growing population, but the rate it is growing at due to the saturation of the Solent urban area means it will be not far off entitlement to a 2nd seat without proportionality derogations at the next review. The Channel Islands have a shared history and relatively close cultural bond, are all within a small geographical area and have strongly interdependent economies. The only reason they would be granted totally separate constituencies is for irrelevant minor cultural differences. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
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Post by peterl on Jun 29, 2022 15:35:45 GMT
Can't see how it would be different to the Isle of Wight, Western Isles, Shetland Isles and Orkney Isles having their own seats and being excluded from general proportionality rules. The latter 3 are a significant distance from the mainland or each other and would require the seat to stretch hundreds of sq. km. I disagree with the IoW and Ynys Mon having their own or split seats, especially egregious in the latter case given Bangor and Caernarfon have direct or proximal fixed transport links to Anglesey. For the IoW, you can make a case based on the growing population, but the rate it is growing at due to the saturation of the Solent urban area means it will be not far off entitlement to a 2nd seat without proportionality derogations at the next review. The Channel Islands have a shared history and relatively close cultural bond, are all within a small geographical area and have strongly interdependent economies. The only reason they would be granted totally separate constituencies is for irrelevant minor cultural differences. The total population of the Channel Islands is 170,499 (2018 estimate). That's closer to justifying two constituencies than one. If there are going to be two, Jersey for one, Guernsey plus remainder for the second is a sensible split. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,771
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 29, 2022 15:53:42 GMT
The latter 3 are a significant distance from the mainland or each other and would require the seat to stretch hundreds of sq. km. I disagree with the IoW and Ynys Mon having their own or split seats, especially egregious in the latter case given Bangor and Caernarfon have direct or proximal fixed transport links to Anglesey. For the IoW, you can make a case based on the growing population, but the rate it is growing at due to the saturation of the Solent urban area means it will be not far off entitlement to a 2nd seat without proportionality derogations at the next review. The Channel Islands have a shared history and relatively close cultural bond, are all within a small geographical area and have strongly interdependent economies. The only reason they would be granted totally separate constituencies is for irrelevant minor cultural differences. The total population of the Channel Islands is 170,499 (2018 estimate). That's closer to justifying two constituencies than one. If there are going to be two, Jersey for one, Guernsey plus remainder for the second is a sensible split. How many seats did the Forum allocate to them in the Imperial Parliament? Have we updated the Imperium Statii since the Australian elections? |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 29, 2022 16:00:23 GMT
The latter 3 are a significant distance from the mainland or each other and would require the seat to stretch hundreds of sq. km. I disagree with the IoW and Ynys Mon having their own or split seats, especially egregious in the latter case given Bangor and Caernarfon have direct or proximal fixed transport links to Anglesey. For the IoW, you can make a case based on the growing population, but the rate it is growing at due to the saturation of the Solent urban area means it will be not far off entitlement to a 2nd seat without proportionality derogations at the next review. The Channel Islands have a shared history and relatively close cultural bond, are all within a small geographical area and have strongly interdependent economies. The only reason they would be granted totally separate constituencies is for irrelevant minor cultural differences. The total population of the Channel Islands is 170,499 (2018 estimate). That's closer to justifying two constituencies than one. If there are going to be two, Jersey for one, Guernsey plus remainder for the second is a sensible split. Which is what I proposed, most of Jersey in one, and the rest in another. I meant the idea of the Bailiwick of Guernsey being completely separate from Jersey in a constituency is insane when a Jersey constituency would be significantly over quota. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 29, 2022 17:00:17 GMT
The total population of the Channel Islands is 170,499 (2018 estimate). That's closer to justifying two constituencies than one. If there are going to be two, Jersey for one, Guernsey plus remainder for the second is a sensible split. Which is what I proposed, most of Jersey in one, and the rest in another. I meant the idea of the Bailiwick of Guernsey being completely separate from Jersey in a constituency is insane when a Jersey constituency would be significantly over quota. The population of Jersey is about 103,000. In other words, about average for a UK parliamentary constituency. Unless it has an exceptionally small proportion of children, I don’t see how it would be “significantly over quota”. |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 29, 2022 17:28:57 GMT
Which is what I proposed, most of Jersey in one, and the rest in another. I meant the idea of the Bailiwick of Guernsey being completely separate from Jersey in a constituency is insane when a Jersey constituency would be significantly over quota. The population of Jersey is about 103,000. In other words, about average for a UK parliamentary constituency. Unless it has an exceptionally small proportion of children, I don’t see how it would be “significantly over quota”. Or tax exiles who are unable to vote. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 29, 2022 18:44:00 GMT
The total population of the Channel Islands is 170,499 (2018 estimate). That's closer to justifying two constituencies than one. If there are going to be two, Jersey for one, Guernsey plus remainder for the second is a sensible split. How many seats did the Forum allocate to them in the Imperial Parliament? Have we updated the Imperium Statii since the Australian elections? What's this 'we'? I don't remember your contribution to the effort being more than bitching about the colour scheme used for the maps.. Actually I chekced Adam Carr's site earlier today with a view to updating the results but he doesn't have the 2PP vote by division up yet. Also will need maps for those states that had boundary changes (Vic and WA i think). Its annoying one has to wait so long after the event to do it - I was able to do Canada within a couple of days. To answer your other question, the Channel Islands are not seperately represented in my Rhodes Parliament. They would not be populous enough to form a single electorate and as their elections are virtually non-partisan they would not add anything of interest to the project |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 29, 2022 18:56:10 GMT
Which is what I proposed, most of Jersey in one, and the rest in another. I meant the idea of the Bailiwick of Guernsey being completely separate from Jersey in a constituency is insane when a Jersey constituency would be significantly over quota. The population of Jersey is about 103,000. In other words, about average for a UK parliamentary constituency. Unless it has an exceptionally small proportion of children, I don’t see how it would be “significantly over quota”. In 2011, there were only 15,169 children, out of a total of 97,857. 82k is pushing it for a parliamentary constituency. (This is probably due to the high proportion of retirees.) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 29, 2022 19:16:33 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Jun 29, 2022 23:35:02 GMT
The population of Jersey is about 103,000. In other words, about average for a UK parliamentary constituency. Unless it has an exceptionally small proportion of children, I don’t see how it would be “significantly over quota”. In 2011, there were only 15,169 children, out of a total of 97,857. 82k is pushing it for a parliamentary constituency. (This is probably due to the high proportion of retirees.) That means that it’s only slightly (not “significantly”) over the quota, i.e. not anything like enough to justify Jersey having more than 1 hypothetical parliamentary constituency. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 30, 2022 5:51:20 GMT
In 2011, there were only 15,169 children, out of a total of 97,857. 82k is pushing it for a parliamentary constituency. (This is probably due to the high proportion of retirees.) That means that it’s only slightly (not “significantly”) over the quota, i.e. not anything like enough to justify Jersey having more than 1 hypothetical parliamentary constituency. And as the actual figures show (posted above) the electorate of Jersey is in fact slightly under quota - not over. The Bailiwick of Guernsey had an electorate of just under 31,000 at the last general election which is a little less than the electorate of Orkney & Shetland and considerably higher than the electorate of the Western Isles. It seems obvious that were these jurisdictions to return representatives to Parliament they would be treated as 'protected constituencies' on the same basis as those ones are. |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 30, 2022 6:46:53 GMT
Isle of Mann (85,000 population) is not too far off the right size. Presumably it would likely also be Conservative as it's attracts tax exiles (and unlike Jersey or Guernsey is accessible to to your average Brit)
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Post by matureleft on Jun 30, 2022 7:39:34 GMT
Isle of Mann (85,000 population) is not too far off the right size. Presumably it would likely also be Conservative as it's attracts tax exiles (and unlike Jersey or Guernsey is accessible to to your average Brit) Yes, but a visit there would demonstrate that it is far from homogenous. It used to be a fairly poor place and, as with any affluent community, the place can't work without the work of a lot of less affluent people . The local Labour Party does win seats in the House of Keys in Douglas (which has quite large amounts of social housing). |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2022 8:45:46 GMT
I suspect both Jersey and IoM would be Tory but with enough of a core Labour vote to switch in a 1997 style scenario. Guernsey I think would hold out even then
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 30, 2022 11:37:15 GMT
And the IoM has had its own Labour Party for over a century, even if it has never amounted to a massive amount electorally.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 30, 2022 12:02:30 GMT
Isle of Mann (85,000 population) is not too far off the right size. Presumably it would likely also be Conservative as it's attracts tax exiles (and unlike Jersey or Guernsey is accessible to to your average Brit) Yes, but a visit there would demonstrate that it is far from homogenous. It used to be a fairly poor place and, as with any affluent community, the place can't work without the work of a lot of less affluent people . The local Labour Party does win seats in the House of Keys in Douglas (which has quite large amounts of social housing). It's definitely within recent times that Manx have stopped coming to mainland en masse. Lots of Manx and people with Manx family in Manchester and Liverpool. It probably goes the other way these days-on my last visit, it seemed like a boss-class of Northerners being served by Ulstermen! |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 30, 2022 12:41:44 GMT
In 2011, there were only 15,169 children, out of a total of 97,857. 82k is pushing it for a parliamentary constituency. (This is probably due to the high proportion of retirees.) That means that it’s only slightly (not “significantly”) over the quota, i.e. not anything like enough to justify Jersey having more than 1 hypothetical parliamentary constituency. With the population growth that it has sustained over the last few decades, it would be. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619
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Post by ricmk on Jun 30, 2022 13:33:25 GMT
Isle of Wight North
Guernsey and bits
St Helier & Jersey East
and.....
Isle of Wight South and Jersey West.
Perfect....if you are a pitchfork manufacturer.
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