sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979 
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Post by sirbenjamin on May 24, 2022 22:46:18 GMT
If there was a metric for residents considering themselves being 'in Kent', this seat would likely be vying with Orpington for the top slot in the stats table. It is, nonetheless, a part of the 'young and thriving metropolis' - albeit a fairly distant part - by virtue of being in the London Borough of Bexley, though it as remote in its voting behaviour as it is geographically and culturally. The very name 'Old Bexley and Sidcup' evokes images of Grandfatherly
nostalgia and a fusty, old-fashioned cobwebbed nook, smelling slightly
of mothballs and claret. Well, to me, anyway.
For more than 50 years the MP for this seat and its predecessors was, appropriately enough, Sir Edward Heath, the former Prime Minister and latterly Father of the House. But even he was young once. Having been first elected MP for Bexley in 1950, 15 years before it became a London Borough, Heath was eventually succeeded in 2001 by the controversial Derek Conway, a retread who had lost his Shrewsbury seat in 1997 and who has been described as 'brutalist architecture made flesh'.
Conway was later expelled from the party amidst the expenses scandal as David Cameron's government-in-waiting looked to clean up its act, and in 2010 the seat was won by James Brokenshire who served as a junior Home Office minister under David Cameron, and latterly Northern Ireland secretary in Theresa May's cabinet. Brokenshire sadly died in late 2021 following a long struggle with cancer and, at the subsequent by election, bequeathed the seat to young Bexley councillor Louis French who held it relatively comfortably with 51.5% of the vote, despite the unpopularity of the government at the time.
The closest any other party has come to winning OB&S in anything like its current form was in the 1997 and 2001 elections when Labour came within 4000 votes of defeating first Heath and then Conway, and in recent local elections all of the wards that make up the seat have elected a full slate of Conservative councillors. If many locals consider 'London' to be a separate entity, the part of the seat closest to it is Welling, straddling the long, straight A207 (known in various places as Shooters Hill and the Old Dover Road) a semi-suburban area which perhaps has more in common as the neighbouring Royal Borough of Greenwich, expect maybe its voting behaviour. In 2013 Welling saw the opening of London's first micropub, the Door Hinge, which was soon followed by similar licensed premises on high streets throughout the seat. The micropub phenomenon, which has its origins in Kent, has had a particular impact in this part of the world, with narrow former shop units now dispensing cask ales to thirsty, typically more mature punters. Sidcup itself is a little more 'towny' with an air of quiet respectability about it, though these days that might well exist primarily in the mind. Just as Welling could easily be in the borough of Greenwich, so Sidcup would be at home in neighbouring Bromley. Green spaces and modest new-builds, coupled with relatively affordable property made Sidcup an attractive prospect for commuters with families - though in recent years a notable increase in house prices here will likely have reduced its appeal. (Though there are more of the aforementioned micropubs so not that unappealling!) While most of the seat is well connected by rail to both London and Kent, the Blackfen area in between Sidcup and Welling is rather less so, with big wide roads, mid-century semis, and a sense of sprawling 'fill in the gaps' suburbia. The Broken Drum ('cannot be beaten') here was one of the earlier micropubs on the scene. The Southeasternmost parts of the seat, around (Old) Bexley and North Cray are, unsurprisingly the most rural and villagey. There is light farming and riding school stables here and the strongest sense of being in Kent proper. It is also usually the most strongly Conservative part of the seat though, unlike similar areas on the fringes of London - there is not a strong Lib Dem challenge in St Mary's and St James ward. Taken as a whole the seat feels very much like a gradated journey from London into Kent. It may be slightly more Tory-inclined than similar places elsewhere on the fringes of the capital because it had such a famous MP for so long, but Sir Edward stood down more than two decades ago, has been dead since 2005, was not liked by a substantial number of Tories AND generally preferred to live in Mayfair and Salisbury, so those 51 years may not have proved particularly meaningful politically! |
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Post by Robert Waller on May 24, 2022 23:30:49 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 18.7% 193/650
Owner-occupied 79.8% 13/650
Private rented 10.2% 571/650
Social rented 8.6% 617/650
White 89.0% 455/650
Black 2.8% 147/650
Asian 5.5% 204/650
UK passport 85.5% 7/650
Managerial & professional 32.8%
Intermediate 19.9% 2/650
Routine & Semi-routine 18.4%
Administrative and secretarial occupations 18.8% 1/650
Employed in construction 11.0% 21/650
Degree level 22.6% 414/650
Level 2 qualifications 18.1% 13/650
No qualifications 22.0% 366 /650
Students 8.3% 211/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 77.5% 28/573
Private rented 13.6% 500/573
Social rented 8.9% 541/573
White 81.5%
Black 4.7%
Asian 8.6%
Managerial & professional 37.1% 165/573
Routine & Semi-routine 17.2% 480/573
Degree level 30.8% 313/573
No qualifications 17.1% 331/573
General Election 2019: Old Bexley and Sidcup
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative James Brokenshire 29,786 64.5 +3.1
Labour Dave Tingle 10,834 23.5 -5.8
Liberal Democrats Simone Reynolds 3,822 8.3 +5.0
Green Matt Browne 1,477 3.2 +1.5
CPA Carol Valinejad 226 0.5 +0.3
C Majority 18,952 41.0 +8.8
Turnout 46,145 69.8 -3.0
Registered electors 66,104
Conservative hold
Swing 4.4 Lab to C
By-election 2 December 2021: Old Bexley and Sidcup
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Louie French 11,189 51.5 -13.0
Labour Daniel Francis 6,711 30.9 +7.4
Reform UK Richard Tice 1,432 6.6 N/A
Green Jonathan Rooks 830 3.8 +0.6
Liberal Democrats Simone Reynolds 647 3.0 -5.3
English Democrat Elaine Cheeseman 271 1.3 N/A
UKIP John Poynton 184 0.8 N/A
Rejoin EU Richard Hewison 151 0.7 N/A
Heritage David Kurten 116 0.5 N/A
CPA Carol Valinejad 108 0.5 Steady
Monster Raving Loony Mad Mike Young 94 0.4 N/A
C Majority 4,478 20.6 -20.4
Turnout 21,733 33.5 -36.3
Registered electors 64,831
Conservative hold
Swing 10.2 C to Lab
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on May 25, 2022 0:02:08 GMT
2011 CensusAge 65+ 18.7% 193/650 Owner-occupied 79.8% 13/650 Private rented 10.2% 571/650 Social rented 8.6% 617/650 White 89.0% 455/650 Black 2.8% 147/650 Asian 5.5% 204/650 UK passport 85.5% 7/650 Managerial & professional 32.8% Intermediate 19.9% 2/650 Routine & Semi-routine 18.4% Administrative and secretarial occupations 18.8% 1/650 Employed in construction 11.0% 21/650 Degree level 22.6% 414/650 Level 2 qualifications 18.1% 13/650 No qualifications 22.0% 366 /650 Students 8.3% 211/650 General Election 2019: Old Bexley and SidcupParty Candidate Votes % ±% Conservative James Brokenshire 29,786 64.5 +3.1Labour Dave Tingle 10,834 23.5 -5.8 Liberal Democrats Simone Reynolds 3,822 8.3 +5.0 Green Matt Browne 1,477 3.2 +1.5 CPA Carol Valinejad 226 0.5 +0.3
C Majority 18,952 41.0 +8.8Turnout 46,145 69.8 -3.0 Registered electors 66,104 Conservative hold Swing 4.4 Lab to C By-election 2 December 2021: Old Bexley and SidcupParty Candidate Votes % ±% Conservative Louie French 11,189 51.5 -13.0Labour Daniel Francis 6,711 30.9 +7.4 Reform UK Richard Tice 1,432 6.6 N/A Green Jonathan Rooks 830 3.8 +0.6 Liberal Democrats Simone Reynolds 647 3.0 -5.3 English Democrat Elaine Cheeseman 271 1.3 N/A UKIP John Poynton 184 0.8 N/A Rejoin EU Richard Hewison 151 0.7 N/A Heritage David Kurten 116 0.5 N/A CPA Carol Valinejad 108 0.5 Steady Monster Raving Loony Mad Mike Young 94 0.4 N/A C Majority 4,478 20.6 -20.4Turnout 21,733 33.5 -36.3 Registered electors 64,831 Conservative hold Swing 10.2 C to Lab
The secretary capital of the UK, eh?
Not surprised by the owner-occupation stats. Just wondering how all those secretaries and administrators can afford to buy...
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Post by bjornhattan on May 25, 2022 1:23:35 GMT
2011 CensusAge 65+ 18.7% 193/650 Owner-occupied 79.8% 13/650 Private rented 10.2% 571/650 Social rented 8.6% 617/650 White 89.0% 455/650 Black 2.8% 147/650 Asian 5.5% 204/650 UK passport 85.5% 7/650 Managerial & professional 32.8% Intermediate 19.9% 2/650 Routine & Semi-routine 18.4% Administrative and secretarial occupations 18.8% 1/650 Employed in construction 11.0% 21/650 Degree level 22.6% 414/650 Level 2 qualifications 18.1% 13/650 No qualifications 22.0% 366 /650 Students 8.3% 211/650 General Election 2019: Old Bexley and SidcupParty Candidate Votes % ±% Conservative James Brokenshire 29,786 64.5 +3.1Labour Dave Tingle 10,834 23.5 -5.8 Liberal Democrats Simone Reynolds 3,822 8.3 +5.0 Green Matt Browne 1,477 3.2 +1.5 CPA Carol Valinejad 226 0.5 +0.3
C Majority 18,952 41.0 +8.8Turnout 46,145 69.8 -3.0 Registered electors 66,104 Conservative hold Swing 4.4 Lab to C By-election 2 December 2021: Old Bexley and SidcupParty Candidate Votes % ±% Conservative Louie French 11,189 51.5 -13.0Labour Daniel Francis 6,711 30.9 +7.4 Reform UK Richard Tice 1,432 6.6 N/A Green Jonathan Rooks 830 3.8 +0.6 Liberal Democrats Simone Reynolds 647 3.0 -5.3 English Democrat Elaine Cheeseman 271 1.3 N/A UKIP John Poynton 184 0.8 N/A Rejoin EU Richard Hewison 151 0.7 N/A Heritage David Kurten 116 0.5 N/A CPA Carol Valinejad 108 0.5 Steady Monster Raving Loony Mad Mike Young 94 0.4 N/A C Majority 4,478 20.6 -20.4Turnout 21,733 33.5 -36.3 Registered electors 64,831 Conservative hold Swing 10.2 C to Lab
The secretary capital of the UK, eh?
Not surprised by the owner-occupation stats. Just wondering how all those secretaries and administrators can afford to buy...
The statistics on administrative and secretarial occupations are pretty fascinating. The top ten constituencies for employment in those jobs are: 1. Old Bexley and Sidcup 2. Bexleyheath and Crayford 3. Hornchurch and Upminster 4. Romford 5. Rayleigh and Wickford 6. Bootle 7. Beckenham 8. Orpington 9. Castle Point 10. Dagenham and Rainham With the exception of Bootle, these are all to be found to the east of London, broadly in the Essex and Kent borders. And with the exception of Beckenham and possibly Orpington, they seem to mostly be lower middle class areas - probably too affluent to have many workers in routine or manual occupations, but not affluent or prestigious enough to attract many professionals. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on May 25, 2022 7:07:20 GMT
The statistics on administrative and secretarial occupations are pretty fascinating. The top ten constituencies for employment in those jobs are: 1. Old Bexley and Sidcup 2. Bexleyheath and Crayford 3. Hornchurch and Upminster 4. Romford 5. Rayleigh and Wickford 6. Bootle 7. Beckenham 8. Orpington 9. Castle Point 10. Dagenham and Rainham With the exception of Bootle, these are all to be found to the east of London, broadly in the Essex and Kent borders. And with the exception of Beckenham and possibly Orpington, they seem to mostly be lower middle class areas - probably too affluent to have many workers in routine or manual occupations, but not affluent or prestigious enough to attract many professionals. That's presumably just for England. If you look at the whole UK, Dagenham & Rainham is only 17th, and the seven constituencies outside England which beat it are North Down (2nd), Strangford (4th), Belfast West, Belfast East, East Antrim, Belfast North and Lagan Valley, which is a similarly striking geographical clustering to the one you've already observed. |
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Post by bjornhattan on May 25, 2022 7:27:18 GMT
The statistics on administrative and secretarial occupations are pretty fascinating. The top ten constituencies for employment in those jobs are: 1. Old Bexley and Sidcup 2. Bexleyheath and Crayford 3. Hornchurch and Upminster 4. Romford 5. Rayleigh and Wickford 6. Bootle 7. Beckenham 8. Orpington 9. Castle Point 10. Dagenham and Rainham With the exception of Bootle, these are all to be found to the east of London, broadly in the Essex and Kent borders. And with the exception of Beckenham and possibly Orpington, they seem to mostly be lower middle class areas - probably too affluent to have many workers in routine or manual occupations, but not affluent or prestigious enough to attract many professionals. That's presumably just for England. If you look at the whole UK, Dagenham & Rainham is only 17th, and the seven constituencies outside England which beat it are North Down (2nd), Strangford (4th), Belfast West, Belfast East, East Antrim, Belfast North and Lagan Valley, which is a similarly striking geographical clustering to the one you've already observed. That's right - those figures were for England and Wales only. I wasn't aware of that pattern in Northern Ireland, so thank you for pointing it out. |
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on May 25, 2022 18:42:38 GMT
The statistics on administrative and secretarial occupations are pretty fascinating. The top ten constituencies for employment in those jobs are: 1. Old Bexley and Sidcup 2. Bexleyheath and Crayford 3. Hornchurch and Upminster 4. Romford 5. Rayleigh and Wickford 6. Bootle 7. Beckenham 8. Orpington 9. Castle Point 10. Dagenham and Rainham With the exception of Bootle, these are all to be found to the east of London, broadly in the Essex and Kent borders. And with the exception of Beckenham and possibly Orpington, they seem to mostly be lower middle class areas - probably too affluent to have many workers in routine or manual occupations, but not affluent or prestigious enough to attract many professionals. That's presumably just for England. If you look at the whole UK, Dagenham & Rainham is only 17th, and the seven constituencies outside England which beat it are North Down (2nd), Strangford (4th), Belfast West, Belfast East, East Antrim, Belfast North and Lagan Valley, which is a similarly striking geographical clustering to the one you've already observed.
Does this mean the the n/650 rankings across the profiles are wrong? Or are they based on different (e.g. whole UK) data to the table above?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 29, 2022 18:54:43 GMT
Old Bexley & Sidcup is a little under quota and this is to be resolved (according to both the intital and revised proposals of the boundary commission) by essentially realigning to the new ward boundaries, with the parts of East Wickham and Falconwood & Welling wards not already included to be added. This involves adding the Danson Park area which was in this seat between 1997 and 2010. The area to be added is a bit less solidly Conservative than most of the existing seat but the partisan impact will be trivial. Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries | Con | 33252 | 64.3% | | Lab | 12262 | 23.7% | | LD | 4260 | 8.2% | | Grn | 1651 | 3.2% | | Oth | 284 | 0.5% |
| | | | Majority | 20990 | 40.6% |
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