Milton Keynes South
May 24, 2022 12:01:58 GMT
andrewp, Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells, and 1 more like this
Post by Robert Waller on May 24, 2022 12:01:58 GMT
Rather conveniently, when the most recent version of the Boundary Commission started its work reviewing parliamentary constituency boundaries, the quota of seats to which Buckinghamshire, including the unitary authority of Milton Keynes, was entitled was exactly 8.00 – one more than it now possesses. Somewhat less conveniently, but hardly surprisingly, the ‘new city’ of Milton Keynes itself was now due 2.57 constituencies, which clearly means that it could no longer have an exact number (two) as at present. The electorate of Milton Keynes North had already expanded to 91,730 – and that of the South division to a massive 96,543. Major changes were clearly necessary and have indeed been proposed.
Somewhat counter-intuitively, the number of constituencies actually with Milton Keynes in the name was originally reduced to one. However after the inquiry process identified a large number of objections to the names initially proposed, the Commission reverted to the names 'Milton Keynes North' (instead of 'Newport Pagnell') and Milton Keynes South - although of course the new city would also contribute substantially to 'Buckingham and Bletchley'.
Since the last reconfiguration of boundaries, which took effect in 2010, Milton Keynes South has essentially been a Conservative marginal. The Tories won it by a margin of 9.4% in that year, when in effect it was a gain from Labour with the ousting of Phyllis Starkey the MP for its predecessor Milton Keynes South West from 1997 to 2010. From 2010 up to and including 2017 South was slightly the closer of the two MK seats, and in the ‘Corbyn surge’ of 2017 Iain Stewart’s Tory lead fell to just 1,665. In 2019, however, it swung back more sharply than North and for the first time returned a larger majority. This may actually be due to its demographics revealing that South is slightly more working class and less highly educated than North - previously not being disadvantages for Labour but a different matter in that ‘Brexit’ election.
One point that can be made is that not all of Milton Keynes South came into existence as a result of the birth of a ‘new city’ first designated in January 1967 as part of a second wave of development to relieve housing congestion and demand in the South East. This seat also includes the historic communities of Stony Stratford (at its north-west tip) and Bletchley (more or less due south of the centre of Milton Keynes). The former is indeed literally historic, once the site of a 13th century Eleanor Cross, until destroyed by Roundheads during the Civil War, and also the location of the effective abduction of the young king Edward V by his ‘wicked uncle’ Richard in April 1483. Bletchley is probably best known now as the site of the Second World War codebreaking and intelligence centre at Bletchley Park (though that was of course not widely known at all for decades afterwards). The small North Buckinghamshire market town was already expanding after that war and before the conception of an inclusion in Milton Keynes; for example my uncle Ormerod Ashworth, working in the Engineer and Surveyor’s office of its Urban District Council, designed the immediately post war council estate around St John’s Road (the blueprints are in my attic). Bletchley now gives its name to three unitary authority wards with a total of nearly 33,000 electors, although these also cover some New Town developments such as the Water Eaton as well as another pre-existing community, Fenny Stratford (actually at the other end of the seat from its Stony namesake). Overall, MK South has a higher proportion of older housing than its counterpart to the North, where the equivalent long-standing neighbourhoods were Newport Pagnell and Wolverton. North also covers most of the very centre of Milton Keynes, which was not in fact the first area to be completed.
The newer developments in South include (already present on my 1980 Ordnance Survey Landranger 152 map) Coffee Hall, Netherfield and Beanhill, and (more recent so present on the 1999 version) massive infilling as MK marched across the Buckinghamshire fields in a westerly direction, filling the gap between between Bletchley and Fenny Stratford. The wards covering these neighbourhoods are Shenley Brook End, Lougton & Shenley, and Tattenhoe (which includes Emerson Valley). The wards do not currently match the constituency boundaries, so South also includes parts of Bradwell, Monkston and Woughton & Fishermead, and most of the sprawling Danesborough & Walton, which includes the upmarket and attractive survival of Wavendon Village, reaches as far as Woburn Sands in the extreme south-east of the authority.
However, in general the more recent housing developments are less favourable for the Labour party. This is not unconnected with their different appearance. Coffee Hall, for example, is one of those striking inner MK neighbourhoods of distinctive appearance, with ‘adventurous’ modern terraced rows of small houses. The much later western additions appear much more as suburban and identikit end-twentieth century detached owner occupied estates. Which of these types is more attractive is very much a matter of taste, rather like attitudes to Milton Keynes as a whole.
In May 2022, for example Labour won all three Bletchley wards and Stony Stratford (three of these having been Conservative in 2021), but the Liberal Democrats held Shenley Brook End as well as Monkston and the Conservatives actually gained Tattenhoe from Labour. Danesborough/Walton is safe Conservative, still by nearly two to one in 2022. The Liberal Democrats are very competitive in local elections – after May 2022 they held the balance on the council, with 14 councillors compared with 19 for Labour and 23 for the Conservatives. There has been no overall majority on MK council since 2006 (when it was for the Liberal Democrats!). But in parliamentary contests the picture is more of a two horse race; in September 2019 the LD share in South was just 7.3% and that more than doubled the deposit-losing performance in 2017.
That tradition seems likely to continue in the successor seats. Buckingham & Bletchley will likely be safely Conservative, given the influence of the Buckingham segment, which would comprise both the town of Buckingham and the largely rural divisions of Great Brickhill and Winslow, and the inclusion of Tattenhoe ward - though it might be recalled that the estimable Robert Maxwell held a Buckingham seat for Labour that covered Bletchley (as well as Newport Pagnell and Wolverton) between 1964 and 1974. However Milton Keynes South will, like the current South and North, be a constituency that Labour have to win in order to be credible contenders for forming a government. It is indeed a plausible target – Labour would have been ahead there on May 2022 votes for example, for all the local elections being poorish predictors here.
Milton Keynes has always divided opinion and still does. Some see it as a massive excrescence, crawling across and obliterating the countryside of England’s douce heartland, soulless and ugly, typified by endless roundabouts and stereotypical shopping malls, with an ever expanding range of neighbourhoods all lacking distinctive character and the attractive patina of unplanned evolutionary development. Others say it is actually a good place to live, with excellent entertainment, educational and retail facilities, and a very wide range of employment. The figures do indeed suggest relative prosperity and less deprivation, with a high proportion of adults in work, a plurality in managerial and professional positions rather than routine or semi-routine, and a young population, much fewer than average with no educational qualifications.
It could be argued, though, that Milton Keynes is now so large that it cannot be simply characterized as a whole, that there is variety, there are indeed distinct neighbourhoods and communities, and maybe something, if not for all, then for most people. It is also sufficiently a microcosm politically that both the present MK seats and their successors after the boundary changes will be key marginals that need to be won in order to win the general election itself. As such this area will be a key test for the appeal of post-Corbyn (Starmer’s?) Labour, as well as for whoever will be Prime Minister circa 2024.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 10.9% 592/650
Age 0-15 23.2% 24/650
Owner-occupied 57.2% 516/650
Private rented 15.7% 244/650
Social rented 19.1% 244/650
Shared ownership (part owned & rented) 7.1% 1/650
White 80.1% 525/650
Black 6.5% 79/650
Asian 9.2% 134/650
Managerial & professional 33.8%
Routine & Semi-routine 24.8%
No adults in employment household 25.6% 619/650
Wholesale and retail trade 20.7% 5/650
Degree level 27.0% 276/650
No qualifications 19.1% 493/650
Students 6.7% 346/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 61.9% 374/573
Private rented 19.3% 234/573
Social rented 18.9% 192/573
White 71.1%
Black 9.7%
Asian 13.1%
Managerial & professional 35.9% 197/573
Routine & Semi-routine 23.6% 295/573
Degree level 35.4% 187/573
No qualifications 16.0% 380/573
General Election 2019: Milton Keynes South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Iain Stewart 32,011 50.0 +2.5
Labour Hannah O'Neill 25,067 39.2 -5.7
Liberal Democrats Saleyha Ahsan 4,688 7.3 +4.4
Green Alan Francis 1,495 2.3 +0.5
Independent Stephen Fulton 539 0.8 New
CPA Amarachi Ogba 207 0.3 New
C Majority 6,944 10.8 +8.2
Turnout 64,007 66.4 -3.4
Conservative hold
Swing 4.1 Lab to C
Somewhat counter-intuitively, the number of constituencies actually with Milton Keynes in the name was originally reduced to one. However after the inquiry process identified a large number of objections to the names initially proposed, the Commission reverted to the names 'Milton Keynes North' (instead of 'Newport Pagnell') and Milton Keynes South - although of course the new city would also contribute substantially to 'Buckingham and Bletchley'.
Since the last reconfiguration of boundaries, which took effect in 2010, Milton Keynes South has essentially been a Conservative marginal. The Tories won it by a margin of 9.4% in that year, when in effect it was a gain from Labour with the ousting of Phyllis Starkey the MP for its predecessor Milton Keynes South West from 1997 to 2010. From 2010 up to and including 2017 South was slightly the closer of the two MK seats, and in the ‘Corbyn surge’ of 2017 Iain Stewart’s Tory lead fell to just 1,665. In 2019, however, it swung back more sharply than North and for the first time returned a larger majority. This may actually be due to its demographics revealing that South is slightly more working class and less highly educated than North - previously not being disadvantages for Labour but a different matter in that ‘Brexit’ election.
One point that can be made is that not all of Milton Keynes South came into existence as a result of the birth of a ‘new city’ first designated in January 1967 as part of a second wave of development to relieve housing congestion and demand in the South East. This seat also includes the historic communities of Stony Stratford (at its north-west tip) and Bletchley (more or less due south of the centre of Milton Keynes). The former is indeed literally historic, once the site of a 13th century Eleanor Cross, until destroyed by Roundheads during the Civil War, and also the location of the effective abduction of the young king Edward V by his ‘wicked uncle’ Richard in April 1483. Bletchley is probably best known now as the site of the Second World War codebreaking and intelligence centre at Bletchley Park (though that was of course not widely known at all for decades afterwards). The small North Buckinghamshire market town was already expanding after that war and before the conception of an inclusion in Milton Keynes; for example my uncle Ormerod Ashworth, working in the Engineer and Surveyor’s office of its Urban District Council, designed the immediately post war council estate around St John’s Road (the blueprints are in my attic). Bletchley now gives its name to three unitary authority wards with a total of nearly 33,000 electors, although these also cover some New Town developments such as the Water Eaton as well as another pre-existing community, Fenny Stratford (actually at the other end of the seat from its Stony namesake). Overall, MK South has a higher proportion of older housing than its counterpart to the North, where the equivalent long-standing neighbourhoods were Newport Pagnell and Wolverton. North also covers most of the very centre of Milton Keynes, which was not in fact the first area to be completed.
The newer developments in South include (already present on my 1980 Ordnance Survey Landranger 152 map) Coffee Hall, Netherfield and Beanhill, and (more recent so present on the 1999 version) massive infilling as MK marched across the Buckinghamshire fields in a westerly direction, filling the gap between between Bletchley and Fenny Stratford. The wards covering these neighbourhoods are Shenley Brook End, Lougton & Shenley, and Tattenhoe (which includes Emerson Valley). The wards do not currently match the constituency boundaries, so South also includes parts of Bradwell, Monkston and Woughton & Fishermead, and most of the sprawling Danesborough & Walton, which includes the upmarket and attractive survival of Wavendon Village, reaches as far as Woburn Sands in the extreme south-east of the authority.
However, in general the more recent housing developments are less favourable for the Labour party. This is not unconnected with their different appearance. Coffee Hall, for example, is one of those striking inner MK neighbourhoods of distinctive appearance, with ‘adventurous’ modern terraced rows of small houses. The much later western additions appear much more as suburban and identikit end-twentieth century detached owner occupied estates. Which of these types is more attractive is very much a matter of taste, rather like attitudes to Milton Keynes as a whole.
In May 2022, for example Labour won all three Bletchley wards and Stony Stratford (three of these having been Conservative in 2021), but the Liberal Democrats held Shenley Brook End as well as Monkston and the Conservatives actually gained Tattenhoe from Labour. Danesborough/Walton is safe Conservative, still by nearly two to one in 2022. The Liberal Democrats are very competitive in local elections – after May 2022 they held the balance on the council, with 14 councillors compared with 19 for Labour and 23 for the Conservatives. There has been no overall majority on MK council since 2006 (when it was for the Liberal Democrats!). But in parliamentary contests the picture is more of a two horse race; in September 2019 the LD share in South was just 7.3% and that more than doubled the deposit-losing performance in 2017.
That tradition seems likely to continue in the successor seats. Buckingham & Bletchley will likely be safely Conservative, given the influence of the Buckingham segment, which would comprise both the town of Buckingham and the largely rural divisions of Great Brickhill and Winslow, and the inclusion of Tattenhoe ward - though it might be recalled that the estimable Robert Maxwell held a Buckingham seat for Labour that covered Bletchley (as well as Newport Pagnell and Wolverton) between 1964 and 1974. However Milton Keynes South will, like the current South and North, be a constituency that Labour have to win in order to be credible contenders for forming a government. It is indeed a plausible target – Labour would have been ahead there on May 2022 votes for example, for all the local elections being poorish predictors here.
Milton Keynes has always divided opinion and still does. Some see it as a massive excrescence, crawling across and obliterating the countryside of England’s douce heartland, soulless and ugly, typified by endless roundabouts and stereotypical shopping malls, with an ever expanding range of neighbourhoods all lacking distinctive character and the attractive patina of unplanned evolutionary development. Others say it is actually a good place to live, with excellent entertainment, educational and retail facilities, and a very wide range of employment. The figures do indeed suggest relative prosperity and less deprivation, with a high proportion of adults in work, a plurality in managerial and professional positions rather than routine or semi-routine, and a young population, much fewer than average with no educational qualifications.
It could be argued, though, that Milton Keynes is now so large that it cannot be simply characterized as a whole, that there is variety, there are indeed distinct neighbourhoods and communities, and maybe something, if not for all, then for most people. It is also sufficiently a microcosm politically that both the present MK seats and their successors after the boundary changes will be key marginals that need to be won in order to win the general election itself. As such this area will be a key test for the appeal of post-Corbyn (Starmer’s?) Labour, as well as for whoever will be Prime Minister circa 2024.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 10.9% 592/650
Age 0-15 23.2% 24/650
Owner-occupied 57.2% 516/650
Private rented 15.7% 244/650
Social rented 19.1% 244/650
Shared ownership (part owned & rented) 7.1% 1/650
White 80.1% 525/650
Black 6.5% 79/650
Asian 9.2% 134/650
Managerial & professional 33.8%
Routine & Semi-routine 24.8%
No adults in employment household 25.6% 619/650
Wholesale and retail trade 20.7% 5/650
Degree level 27.0% 276/650
No qualifications 19.1% 493/650
Students 6.7% 346/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 61.9% 374/573
Private rented 19.3% 234/573
Social rented 18.9% 192/573
White 71.1%
Black 9.7%
Asian 13.1%
Managerial & professional 35.9% 197/573
Routine & Semi-routine 23.6% 295/573
Degree level 35.4% 187/573
No qualifications 16.0% 380/573
General Election 2019: Milton Keynes South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Iain Stewart 32,011 50.0 +2.5
Labour Hannah O'Neill 25,067 39.2 -5.7
Liberal Democrats Saleyha Ahsan 4,688 7.3 +4.4
Green Alan Francis 1,495 2.3 +0.5
Independent Stephen Fulton 539 0.8 New
CPA Amarachi Ogba 207 0.3 New
C Majority 6,944 10.8 +8.2
Turnout 64,007 66.4 -3.4
Conservative hold
Swing 4.1 Lab to C
