Local Council by-elections/Deferred election 16th June 2022

[Tony Otim]

Deferred Election:

SUNDERLAND MBC; Copt Hill (Labour defence, deferred following death of UKIP candidate)
Candidates:
BODDY, Mary Ann (Liberal Democrat)
DODDS, Tracy (Labour)
FRANCIS, Patricia Ann (Conservative)
PEARSON, Kathleen Elizabeth (Independent)
ROBERTSON, Andrew (Green)
(so a Lib Dem extra, but no UKIP compared to the original nominations)

2021: Lab 1327, 1203; Con 833, 519; UKIP 403, 384; LD 272, 83; Grn 256
2019: Lab 1232; UKIP 1047; Con 386; Grn 311
2018: Lab 1400; Ind 940; Con 428; Grn 108
2016: Lab 1577; UKIP 847; Con 339; Grn 181
2015: Lab 2267; Ind 2082; Con 501; Grn 176
2014: Ind 1469; Lab 1399; Con 254
2012: Ind 1679; Lab 1250; LD 111
2011: Ind 1961; Lab 1533
2010: Lab 2174; Ind 1971; LD 687
2008: Ind 1487; Lab 1123; Con 451; BNP 197
2007: Ind 1382; Lab 1146; Con 358; BNP 176; LD 159
2006: Lab 1372; Con 898; BNP 438
2004: Lab 1805, 1642, 1551; Con 1161; BNP 508

Tracy Dodds (Lab) is the incumbent, elected second in the double election last year. Pat Francis was the Conservative candidate here in every election from 2014-2019.

Current Council: Lab 41; Con 18;LD 14; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



By-elections:

ROTHER DC; Brede & Udimore (Con died)
Candidates:
GORDON, Neil (Conservative)
GRIFFITHS, Martin Paul (Liberal Democrat)

2019: Con 303; Ind 260; Lab 78; UKIP 59; LD 58

Current Council: Con 14; Ind 13; LD 7; Lab 2; Grn 1; 1 vacancy



WARWICK DC; Leamington Clarendon (Lab died)
Candidates:
DYAKOV-RICHMOND, Ignaty (Green)
KING, Christopher Adrian (Labour)
LASOK, Frances (Conservative)
RAGANY, Justine Frances (Liberal Democrat)
SMITH, Gerald Martin (UKIP)

May 21by: Lab 1370; Con 761; LD 539; Grn 431; Ind 103; SDP 16
2019: Lab 1021, 977, 896; LD 873, 817, 784; Con 520, 520, 504; Grn 360, 357, 332; UKIP 188

The Conservative and Green candidates both stood in last year’s by-election, with the Green also standing in the Leamington Clarendon division of Warwickshire county council on the same day.

Current Council: Con 17; LD 9; Grn 8; Lab 4; Whitnash Residents 3; Ind 2; 1 vacancy



WYRE FOREST DC; Franche & Habberley North (ICHC resigned)
Candidates:
BROOKES, Ben (Conservative)
SEWELL, Kate (Labour)
WALKER, Oliver Yasha (Liberal Democrat)

Nov 21 by: Con 564; Lab 372; LD 245; Ind 198
2019: ICHC 956, 890, 651; Con 628, 536; Lab 628, 502; UKIP 338; Grn 318; LD 311
2018: Con 993; Lab 696; ICHC 452; LD 110; UKIP 81; Grn 40
2016: Lab 867; Con 695; ICHC 436; UKIP 385; Grn 62
2015: Con 2006, 1930, 1347; Lab 1443, 1113; ICHC 1137; UKIP 1039, 809, 742; Grn 437; TUSC 155, 112

Oliver Walker stood here for the Lib Dems in both 2019 and last year’s by-election and in the St Barnabas division (which covers this ward) last May.

Current Council: Con 13; IHC 8; Ind 5; LD 3; Lab 2; Grn 1; 1 vacancy

[iang]

What was the Independent success 2007 to 2014 in Sunderland based on? Has that got any connection to the current Indy?

[yellowperil]

At time of writing, the Tories have yet to manage to hold a single defence since the time of the main May elections. They may of course manage to do it today but the majority view of our prediction panel is that they won't (for what that is worth!). If not, it might be this week and it is possible they might break their duck not with a defence but a gain from health concern?

[Tony Otim]

Jun 9, 2022 13:07:00 GMT yellowperil said:

At time of writing, the Tories have yet to manage to hold a single defence since the time of the main May elections. They may of course manage to do it today but the majority view of our prediction panel is that they won't (for what that is worth!). If not, it might be this week and it is possible they might break their duck not with a defence but a gain from health concern?

Possibly, although a lot has changed since November and I wouldn't rule out the Lib Dems there...

[yellowperil]

Jun 9, 2022 13:26:02 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jun 9, 2022 13:07:00 GMT yellowperil said:

At time of writing, the Tories have yet to manage to hold a single defence since the time of the main May elections. They may of course manage to do it today but the majority view of our prediction panel is that they won't (for what that is worth!). If not, it might be this week and it is possible they might break their duck not with a defence but a gain from health concern?

Possibly, although a lot has changed since November and I wouldn't rule out the Lib Dems there...

[shadsy]

[phil156]

The good thing is all 4 are counting on Thursday night too

[Chris from Brum]

Andrew Teale speaks: medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-council-elections-of-16th-june-2022-94e5f9c42bfa

[Adam in Stroud]

Jun 16, 2022 18:35:23 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Andrew Teale speaks: medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-council-elections-of-16th-june-2022-94e5f9c42bfa

Thanks to Andrew I now know that Spike Milligan's grave doesn't have "I told you I was ill" engraved on it after all, but the same phrase in Gaelic.

Following in the great tradition of leaving the rude bits of Bocaccio in Medieval Italian i.e. to a certain mindset you can be as filthy or "inappropriate" as you like so long as you do it in a language the plebs won't understand.

[timmullen1]

Sunderland appears to be counting on a tennis court covered by a tent. Local Democracy Reporter @nicmarkoldr is Tweeting (and posting pictures and videos) from the count.

Wyre Forest have live video on their website: www.wyreforestdc.gov.uk/your-council/councillors-committees-and-meetings/council-meetings/

Turnout approximately 24% of which 15% was on the day voting, the overwhelming majority postal votes.

[andrewp]

Sunderland, Copt Hill result:
Mary Ann Boddy (Lib Dem) 61
Tracy Dodds (Lab) 969
Patricia Francis (Con) 384
Katherine Pearson (Ind) 606
Andrew Robertson (Green) 158

[middleenglander]

Wyre Forest turnout 24% - 69% postal votes and 15% in person.

Some 1,800 votes in total with slightly more postal than in person. This is over 400 more votes than the November 2021 by=election.

[Chris from Brum]

Jun 16, 2022 21:56:42 GMT middleenglander said:

Wyre Forest turnout 24% - 69% postal votes and 15% in person.

Some 1,800 votes in total with slightly more postal than in person. This is over 400 more votes than the November 2021 by=election.

I struggled with this, and eventually decided that you meant that 69% of postal voters voted and only 15% of in-person voters showed up. So postal voters are actually quite a small proportion of the overall electorate.

[middleenglander]

Jun 16, 2022 22:08:58 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Jun 16, 2022 21:56:42 GMT middleenglander said:

Wyre Forest turnout 24% - 69% postal votes and 15% in person.

Some 1,800 votes in total with slightly more postal than in person. This is over 400 more votes than the November 2021 by=election.

I struggled with this, and eventually decided that you meant that 69% of postal voters voted and only 15% of in-person voters showed up. So postal voters are actually quite a small proportion of the overall electorate.

Electorate circa 7,572. Now 1,830 votes compared to 1,379 in November 2021 - an increase of ~ 450 and a turnout of 24.5%.

When Returning Officer said there were 1,800 votes he added slightly more postal than in person on the day. Say split 910 / 890.

910 represents 69% of the postal votes issued, so say some 1,320 postal votes issued
890 represents 15% of the in person votes, so say some 5,950 electors who did not have a postal vote

So total electorate say 1,320 plus 5,950 = 7,270. So rough calculation from the figures provided in 300 votes or 4% short.

[andrewp]

Wyre Forest, Franche and Habberley North.

Con 826
Lab 656
LD 347

[batman]

Disappointing for Labour, but I suspect it was always a tough nut to crack. The Labour win in 2016 shows that it can be won in some circumstances though.

[andrewp]

Leamington Clarendon District by-election result:

Ignaty Dyakov-Richmond (Green) - 105
Christopher King (Lab) - 1064 ELECTED
Frances Lasok (Con) - 365
Justine Ragany (Lib Dem) - 612
Gerald Smith (UKIP) - 24

[andrewp]

Rother. Brede and Udimore

Con 424
LD 266

[ricmk]

Brede and Udimore, Rother District Council

Con: 424
Lib Dem: 266

[middleenglander]

Rother: Brede & Udimore - Conservative hold

Party	2022 votes	2022 share	since 2019
Conservative	424	61.4%	+21.5%
Liberal Democrat	266	38.6%	+30.8%
Independent			-34.3%
Labour			-10.3%
UKIP			-7.7%
Total votes	690		91%

Swing:  not meaningful

Council now:  15 Conservative, 13 Independent, 7 Liberal Democrat, 2 Labour, 1 Green

Sunderland: Copt Hill - Labour hold
Deferred election

Party	2022 votes	2022 share	since 2021 "top"	since 2021 "average"	since 2019	since 2018
Labour	969	44.5%	+1.6%	-1.2%	+3.1%	-4.2%
Independent Pearson	606	27.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	384	17.6%	-9.3%	-6.8%	+4.7%	+2.7%
Green	158	7.3%	-1.0%	-2.0%	-3.2%	+3.5%
Liberal Democrat	61	2.8%	-6.0%	-3.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere
UKIP			-13.0%	-14.2%	-35.2%
Independent Allen						-32.7%
Total votes	2,178		70%	79%	73%	76%

Swing:  not meaningful

Council now:  42 Labour, 18 Conservative, 14 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent

Warwick: Leamington Clarendon - Labour hold

Party	2022 votes	2022 share	since 2021 B	since 2019 "top"	since 2019 "average"
Labour	1,064	49.0%	+6.5%	+14.6%	+15.1%
Liberal Democrat	612	28.2%	+11.5%	-1.3%	-0.8%
Conservative	365	16.8%	-6.8%	-0.7%	-1.3%
Green	105	4.8%	-8.5%	-7.3%	-7.5%
UKIP	24	1.1%	from nowhere	-5.2%	-5.5%
Independent			-3.2%
SDP			-0.5%
Total votes	2,170		67%	73%	76%

Swing:  Conservative to Labour 6¾% since May 2021 by-election but Liberal Democrat to Labour 8% since 2019

Council now:  17 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 8 Green, 5 Labour, 3 Whitnash Independent, 2 Independent

Wyre Forest: Franche & Habberley North - Conservative gain from Independent Community & Health Concern

Party	2022 votes	2022 share	since 2021 B	since 2019 "top"	since 2019 "average"	since 2018
Conservative	826	45.2%	+4.3%	+25.4%	+25.4%	+3.3%
Labour	656	35.9%	+8.9%	+16.1%	+16.7%	+6.5%
Liberal Democrat	347	19.0%	+1.2%	+9.2%	+8.4%	+14.3%
Independent			-14.4%
ICHC				-30.1%	-28.2%	-19.1%
UKIP				-10.6%	-11.5%	-3.4%
Green				-10.0%	-10.8%	-1.7%
Total votes	1,829		133%	58%	62%	77%

ICHC - Independent Community & Health Concern

Swing:  Conservative to Labour 2¼% since November 2021 by-election and 1½% since 2018 but not meaningful since 2019

Council now 14 Conservative, 8 ICHC, 5 Independent, 3 Liberal Democrat, 2 Labour, 1 Green