Post by Robert Waller on May 11, 2022 20:25:17 GMT
Scunthorpe, Grimsby, Cleethorpes … the names of the main towns and constituencies in north east Lincolnshire are unglamorous, to say the least – but redolent of character. The Cleethorpes constituency as currently drawn includes the eponymous seaside community, which is contiguous in a built up area with Grimsby; indeed it is hard to identify where the one stops and the other starts, and the Blundell Park stadium of Grimsby Town football club (of the National League, at present, but engaged in something of a yo-yo with Football League 2) actually being located in Cleethorpes. But this division actually curls round to the other side of Grimsby to include the largely post-World war Two port of Immingham and reaches Barton on Humber near the south side of the massive bridge towards Hull.
Cleethorpes is a seat that once appeared marginal or even a bellwether but has not done recently. It was won by Shona McIsaac for Labour in 1997, 2001 and 2005. However it is a classic example of New Labour reaching parts that Old Labour never could; and which have not been penetrated since. It might be pointed out that the pattern of General Election results in the United Kingdom since 1979 for the Labour party has read: Lose – Lose – Lose – Lose – Blair - Blair – Blair – Lose – Lose - Lose- Lose. In December 2019 Martin Vickers won Cleethorpes for the Conservatives with a majority of 21,418 (or 46.5%, which makes it the 32nd safest Conservative seat).
Cleethorpes was winnable in the Blair era because it is socially and economically unexalted. A considerably higher proportion of its workforce is in routine and semi-routine occupations (over 32% at the time of the most recent Census available) than professional or managerial (25%). It ranks 4th highest of all constituencies in the ‘lower supervisory and technical’ category and 11th in ‘process, plant and machine operatives’. It is only just outside the lowest 100 seats for residents possessing degree level qualifications, and in the highest quartile for ‘no qualifications’.
On the other hand in the current era of voting behaviour, it looks very Conservative. The above mentioned characteristics are no longer a good guide to vulnerability to Labour. It was close to 98% white in the 2011 census. It was 73% owner occupied. In 2016 the Cleethorpes division voted around 69% to leave the EU, not far behind Grimsby’s 71%. In December 2019 the Labour share in Grimsby dropped by 16.9%. In its environs, Cleethorpes, it dropped 12.6% from a lower base. As elsewhere up and down England’s east coast, Cleethorpes, Immingham and the like clearly wanted to distance themselves from the European entanglement.
The growing Tory strength can be seen in local election results as well. The Cleethorpes constituency lies mainly within the unitary authority of North East Lincolnshire. In May 2022 the only Labour victory was a narrow hold in Sidney Sussex* ward, the part of Cleethorpes town closest to the centre of Grimsby, while the Conservatives easily won in the other two Cleethorpes wards, Haverstoe and Croft Baker, and also in Immingham ward. Waltham and Humberston/ New Waltham, large suburban villages favoured by the more affluent who work in the Grimsby-Cleethorpes ‘conurbation’, were all Conservative by over two to one over Labour – and other parties were notable by their absence. The Liberal Democrats did finish second in 2022 in the Wolds ward, the most ‘inland’/furthest from the Humber part of the constituency, with its remote feeling and attractive villages, running from Healing in the north through Laceby and Barnoldby-le-Beck to Wold Newton at the southern end – and yes, there are hills in Lincolnshire.
There are also two wards in North Lincolnshire (also a unitary), Barton and Ferry, which covers communities such as New Holland (which was indeed the southern terminus of the ferry across the estuary to Hull until rendered redundant by the bridge in 1981), Barrow-upon-Humber and the Killingholmes. The Tories easily returned all six councillors in these two wards in the most recent local elections in May 2019, though here Green candidates did finish second. In general, though, this is not a strong ‘minor party’ area, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens polling 8.3% between them in December 2019 - though this was at least an improvement on the wretched combined score of 3.3%, and fourth and fifth place behind UKIP, in 2017.
So, despite some history of local Labour victories in Immingham and Croft Baker as well as Sidney Sussex, Cleethorpes now looks overwhelmingly Conservative. However, its days seem to be numbered. In the current boundary reviews, the Commission has noted that at scarcely more than 60,000 voters the Great Grimsby seat is seriously under-populated. They have proposed the addition of the three Cleethorpes town wards of Sidney Sussex, Croft Baker and Haverstoe to be added to most of Grimsby to form a new Grimsby & Cleethorpes seat, which should consolidate the Tories’ dramatic gain in 2019. The remainder of the present Cleethorpes (66% of its electors) was suggested in the initial proposals to be included together with 22% of Brigg & Goole and 15% of Great Grimsby in a seat named South Humber. The only change in the revised recommendations of November 2022 was to rename South Humber as Brigg and Immingham.
This new seat would be a mish-mash with no clear centre. As proposed it would have no large towns. As well as Barton upon Humber and Immingham, along with the Walthams, from Cleethorpes, it would include Brigg and Broughton from Brigg & Goole and the suburban ward of Scartho from Grimsby, which is essentially composed of modern owner occupied (83%) and mid-priced housing. Brigg & Immingham would be overwhelmingly Conservative, probably even more so than Cleethorpes.
Having started with the characterful names of the present constituencies in this area, it seems somewhat pleasing to note that the functional ‘South Humber’ seems to have been rejected. Looking through the responses to the initial proposals, as well as the Cleethorpeites who did not want to be associated with their larger neighbour Grimsby, there were many that objected to the name South Humber, mostly on the long-established grounds that they did not believe there was such as a place as ‘Humberside’. The most common suggestion was some variation on 'Brigg and Immingham' – which are, at least, very real places, even if situated in a little known corner of England.
*For the connection between the grimmest looking (and not notably well educated) ward in this constituency and a rather beautiful Cambridge University college, see here
friendsofcleethorpesheritage.co.uk/home/alan-dowling-articles/ofdonsanddonuts-sidneysussexcollegeandcleethorpes
General Election 2019: Cleethorpes
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Martin Vickers 31,969 69.0 +11.9
Labour Ros James 10,551 22.8 -12.6
Liberal Democrats Roy Horobin 2,535 5.5 +3.2
Green Jodi Shanahan 1,284 2.8 +1.8
C Majority 21,418 46.2 +24.5
Turnout 46,339 62.9 -2.6
Conservative hold
Swing +12.25 to C from Lab
2011 Census
Age 65+ 19.9% 137/650
Owner-occupied 73.1% 119/650
Private rented 15.6% 248/650
Social rented 10.0% 581/650
White 97.9% 128/650
Black 0.2% 536/650
Asian 1.0% 515/650
Managerial & professional 25.4%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.3%
Lower supervisory and technical 10.9& 4/650
Process, plant and machine operatives 13.1% 11/650
Degree level 19.0% 547/650
No qualifications 27.0% 177/650
Students 5.9% 506/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 71.7% 125/573
Private rented 18.7% 256/573
Social rented 9.6% 534/573
White 97.1%
Black 0.3%
Asian 1.2%
Managerial & professional 27.0% 443/573
Routine & Semi-routine 30.3% 78/573
Degree level 24.2% 503/573
No qualifications 21.6% 134/573
Cleethorpes is a seat that once appeared marginal or even a bellwether but has not done recently. It was won by Shona McIsaac for Labour in 1997, 2001 and 2005. However it is a classic example of New Labour reaching parts that Old Labour never could; and which have not been penetrated since. It might be pointed out that the pattern of General Election results in the United Kingdom since 1979 for the Labour party has read: Lose – Lose – Lose – Lose – Blair - Blair – Blair – Lose – Lose - Lose- Lose. In December 2019 Martin Vickers won Cleethorpes for the Conservatives with a majority of 21,418 (or 46.5%, which makes it the 32nd safest Conservative seat).
Cleethorpes was winnable in the Blair era because it is socially and economically unexalted. A considerably higher proportion of its workforce is in routine and semi-routine occupations (over 32% at the time of the most recent Census available) than professional or managerial (25%). It ranks 4th highest of all constituencies in the ‘lower supervisory and technical’ category and 11th in ‘process, plant and machine operatives’. It is only just outside the lowest 100 seats for residents possessing degree level qualifications, and in the highest quartile for ‘no qualifications’.
On the other hand in the current era of voting behaviour, it looks very Conservative. The above mentioned characteristics are no longer a good guide to vulnerability to Labour. It was close to 98% white in the 2011 census. It was 73% owner occupied. In 2016 the Cleethorpes division voted around 69% to leave the EU, not far behind Grimsby’s 71%. In December 2019 the Labour share in Grimsby dropped by 16.9%. In its environs, Cleethorpes, it dropped 12.6% from a lower base. As elsewhere up and down England’s east coast, Cleethorpes, Immingham and the like clearly wanted to distance themselves from the European entanglement.
The growing Tory strength can be seen in local election results as well. The Cleethorpes constituency lies mainly within the unitary authority of North East Lincolnshire. In May 2022 the only Labour victory was a narrow hold in Sidney Sussex* ward, the part of Cleethorpes town closest to the centre of Grimsby, while the Conservatives easily won in the other two Cleethorpes wards, Haverstoe and Croft Baker, and also in Immingham ward. Waltham and Humberston/ New Waltham, large suburban villages favoured by the more affluent who work in the Grimsby-Cleethorpes ‘conurbation’, were all Conservative by over two to one over Labour – and other parties were notable by their absence. The Liberal Democrats did finish second in 2022 in the Wolds ward, the most ‘inland’/furthest from the Humber part of the constituency, with its remote feeling and attractive villages, running from Healing in the north through Laceby and Barnoldby-le-Beck to Wold Newton at the southern end – and yes, there are hills in Lincolnshire.
There are also two wards in North Lincolnshire (also a unitary), Barton and Ferry, which covers communities such as New Holland (which was indeed the southern terminus of the ferry across the estuary to Hull until rendered redundant by the bridge in 1981), Barrow-upon-Humber and the Killingholmes. The Tories easily returned all six councillors in these two wards in the most recent local elections in May 2019, though here Green candidates did finish second. In general, though, this is not a strong ‘minor party’ area, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens polling 8.3% between them in December 2019 - though this was at least an improvement on the wretched combined score of 3.3%, and fourth and fifth place behind UKIP, in 2017.
So, despite some history of local Labour victories in Immingham and Croft Baker as well as Sidney Sussex, Cleethorpes now looks overwhelmingly Conservative. However, its days seem to be numbered. In the current boundary reviews, the Commission has noted that at scarcely more than 60,000 voters the Great Grimsby seat is seriously under-populated. They have proposed the addition of the three Cleethorpes town wards of Sidney Sussex, Croft Baker and Haverstoe to be added to most of Grimsby to form a new Grimsby & Cleethorpes seat, which should consolidate the Tories’ dramatic gain in 2019. The remainder of the present Cleethorpes (66% of its electors) was suggested in the initial proposals to be included together with 22% of Brigg & Goole and 15% of Great Grimsby in a seat named South Humber. The only change in the revised recommendations of November 2022 was to rename South Humber as Brigg and Immingham.
This new seat would be a mish-mash with no clear centre. As proposed it would have no large towns. As well as Barton upon Humber and Immingham, along with the Walthams, from Cleethorpes, it would include Brigg and Broughton from Brigg & Goole and the suburban ward of Scartho from Grimsby, which is essentially composed of modern owner occupied (83%) and mid-priced housing. Brigg & Immingham would be overwhelmingly Conservative, probably even more so than Cleethorpes.
Having started with the characterful names of the present constituencies in this area, it seems somewhat pleasing to note that the functional ‘South Humber’ seems to have been rejected. Looking through the responses to the initial proposals, as well as the Cleethorpeites who did not want to be associated with their larger neighbour Grimsby, there were many that objected to the name South Humber, mostly on the long-established grounds that they did not believe there was such as a place as ‘Humberside’. The most common suggestion was some variation on 'Brigg and Immingham' – which are, at least, very real places, even if situated in a little known corner of England.
*For the connection between the grimmest looking (and not notably well educated) ward in this constituency and a rather beautiful Cambridge University college, see here
friendsofcleethorpesheritage.co.uk/home/alan-dowling-articles/ofdonsanddonuts-sidneysussexcollegeandcleethorpes
General Election 2019: Cleethorpes
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Martin Vickers 31,969 69.0 +11.9
Labour Ros James 10,551 22.8 -12.6
Liberal Democrats Roy Horobin 2,535 5.5 +3.2
Green Jodi Shanahan 1,284 2.8 +1.8
C Majority 21,418 46.2 +24.5
Turnout 46,339 62.9 -2.6
Conservative hold
Swing +12.25 to C from Lab
2011 Census
Age 65+ 19.9% 137/650
Owner-occupied 73.1% 119/650
Private rented 15.6% 248/650
Social rented 10.0% 581/650
White 97.9% 128/650
Black 0.2% 536/650
Asian 1.0% 515/650
Managerial & professional 25.4%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.3%
Lower supervisory and technical 10.9& 4/650
Process, plant and machine operatives 13.1% 11/650
Degree level 19.0% 547/650
No qualifications 27.0% 177/650
Students 5.9% 506/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 71.7% 125/573
Private rented 18.7% 256/573
Social rented 9.6% 534/573
White 97.1%
Black 0.3%
Asian 1.2%
Managerial & professional 27.0% 443/573
Routine & Semi-routine 30.3% 78/573
Degree level 24.2% 503/573
No qualifications 21.6% 134/573