Prediction Competition - May 2022

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 7 contests during May – 6 by-elections and a deferred election from earlier this month.

- 2 by-elections on 12 May
- 1 on 19 May
- 1 on 25 May - note this is a Wednesday
- 2 by-elections and 1 deferred election on 26 May

All 6 by-elections are for District Councils last contested in 2019
The deferred election is for a London Borough last contested in 2018

Conservatives defend 5 of the by-election seats, 2 following the death of the previous councillor, 2 a resignation and 1 disqualification
Labour defend 1 by-election seat following a resignation and all 3 seats in the deferred election

With all candidates declared there is a full slate of 9 Conservative candidates, 7 Labour, 5 Greens, 4 Liberal Democrats and 1 apiece for the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, Lincoln Independents and Independent Network together with 1 Independent
- a total of 29 candidates for 9 seats.

Top vote for the deferred election with the party of the poll topper and ultimate seat winners specified please (5 faults attributed for incorrect predictions respectively). Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[kevinf]

May 12th
Lewes
Lab 34
Green32
Con 24
LD 10

Waverley
Green 38
Con 35
Ind 27

[Tony Otim]

Waverley
Grn 39.8
Ind 32.1
Con 28.1


Lewes:
Lab 41.8
Con 36.2
LD 13.4
Grn 8.6

[peterl]

Waverley
Grn 42.6
Ind 30.5
Con 26.9

Lewes:
Lab 40.2
Con 32.3
Grn 15.5
LD 12.0

[andrewp]

Lewes. Lab 44, Con 34, LD 15, Green 7
Waverley. Green 40, Ind 36, Con 24

[greenhert]

Lewes DC, Peacehaven: Green 42, Conservative 33, Labour 15, Liberal Democrats 10. Green gain from Conservative.
Waverley DC, Frensham, Dockenfield & Tilford: Green 42, Conservative 38, Independent (Munro) 20. Green gain from Conservative.

[Robert Waller]

Lewes: Lab 36, Con 34, LD 15, Green 15

Waverley: Green 50, Ind 25, Con 25

[agbutler]

Lewes, Lab 35 Con 31 Grn 21 LD 13
Waverley, Grn 41 Con 32 Ind 27

[finsobruce]

May 11, 2022 23:49:01 GMT agbutler said:

Lewes, Lab 35 Con 31 Grn 21 LD 13
Wakerley, Grn 41 Con 32 Ind 27

Wakerley? Are you getting it confused with the parliamentary by election in Waverfield?

[iainbhx]

LEWES DC; Peacehaven West : Con 36 Lab 33 Grn 18 LDm 13
WAVERLEY DC; Frensham, Dockenfield & Tilford : Grn 48 Con 31 Ind 21

[rightleaning]

Lewes, Peacehaven West: C 36, Lab 32, Gn 17, LD 15
Waverley, Frensham, Dockenfield & Tilford : Gn 49, C 30 Ind 21

[yellowperil]

Lewes, Peacehaven West:Con 30, Lab 33,LD 14, GP 23.
Waverley, Frensham, Dockenfield & Tilford: Con 24, GP 48,Ind 28

[Smartie]

12th May

Lewes - Lab 34.8, Con 32.6, Green 21.7, 10.9
Waverley, - green 41.7, con 31.4, ind 26.9

[batman]

Lewes - Lab 37, Con 33, Green 19,LD 11
Waverley - Green 44, Con 34, Ind 22

[robbienicoll]

12 entries to begin May, with welcome returns from yellowperil and agbutler, and what I think is a maiden appearance for batman, certainly under the current persona! Unfortunately, he posted 7 hours over the deadline which would normally be 70x2 faults, but due to the first timer mitigation this is halved to 70 faults. All others were on time and correct.

Peacehaven West, Lewes: 9 Labour gain from Conservative, with iainbhx and Right Leaning Conservative hold and greenhert Green gain.
Frensham, Dockenfield and Tilford, Waverley: 100% Green gain, with majorities ranging from 3% (kevinf) to 25% (Robert Waller).

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U2FkX_VwYdJDNM8KrEE2dB0sA0pORi3sxQF9zdzf6TQ/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Tony Otim]

May 12, 2022 18:59:06 GMT robbienicoll said:

12 entries to begin May, with welcome returns from yellowperil and agbutler, and what I think is a maiden appearance for batman, certainly under the current persona! Unfortunately, he posted 7 hours over the deadline which would normally be 70x2 faults, but due to the first timer mitigation this is halved to 70 faults. All others were on time and correct.

Peacehaven West, Lewes: 9 Labour gain from Conservative, with iainbhx and Right Leaning Conservative hold and greenhert Green gain.
Frensham, Dockenfield and Tilford, Waverley: 100% Green gain, with majorities ranging from 3% (kevinf) to 25% (Robert Waller).

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U2FkX_VwYdJDNM8KrEE2dB0sA0pORi3sxQF9zdzf6TQ/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

So -we were all off to a good start with Frensham then?

[Robert Waller]

All off to a not very good at all start, but I think Tony Otim and andrewp were least worst this week!

[batman]

May 12, 2022 18:59:06 GMT robbienicoll said:

12 entries to begin May, with welcome returns from yellowperil and agbutler, and what I think is a maiden appearance for batman, certainly under the current persona! Unfortunately, he posted 7 hours over the deadline which would normally be 70x2 faults, but due to the first timer mitigation this is halved to 70 faults. All others were on time and correct.

Peacehaven West, Lewes: 9 Labour gain from Conservative, with iainbhx and Right Leaning Conservative hold and greenhert Green gain.
Frensham, Dockenfield and Tilford, Waverley: 100% Green gain, with majorities ranging from 3% (kevinf) to 25% (Robert Waller).

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U2FkX_VwYdJDNM8KrEE2dB0sA0pORi3sxQF9zdzf6TQ/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

no I have entered once previously.

[robbienicoll]

May 12, 2022 23:06:45 GMT Robert Waller said:

All off to a not very good at all start, but I think Tony Otim and andrewp were least worst this week!

Results are now up with andrewp just edging it. Tricky week for sure.

[Tony Otim]

May 13, 2022 8:26:49 GMT robbienicoll said:

May 12, 2022 23:06:45 GMT Robert Waller said:

All off to a not very good at all start, but I think Tony Otim and andrewp were least worst this week!

Results are now up with andrewp just edging it. Tricky week for sure.

I think the wins column is wrong (as in you've marked the wrong winners in Peacehaven).