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Post by andrewp on May 27, 2022 9:14:31 GMT
Without getting into detail on the Index, that isn’t really how it feels to me this week. In the 3 contests where there were both Labour and Conservative candidates, there was a swing from Labour to Conservative in all 3. So factoring in the fact that Labour won 2 wards and the Conservatives none, I would say the two parties were fairly even this week.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on May 27, 2022 9:23:39 GMT
Well, no swing in Redbridge practically speaking. And you can't really sniff at a 70-15 win in what was effectively a byelection situation.
And the Lincolnshire contest was still a Tory loss (even if narrowly) which has to count for something in such an assessment.
Gedling was the interesting one, perhaps - mentioned upthread that Labour were heavily attacking the LibDems in their literature, and of course the yellows managed to win a previous seat in that council from a similarly unpromising position at the start of the year. As it was, the Tories weren't that far from coming through the middle.
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Post by jamesdoyle on May 27, 2022 10:12:46 GMT
Without getting into detail on the Index, that isn’t really how it feels to me this week. In the 3 contests where there were both Labour and Conservative candidates, there was a swing from Labour to Conservative in all 3. So factoring in the fact that Labour won 2 wards and the Conservatives none, I would say the two parties were fairly even this week. Well, the Cons do get small positive numbers for their vote share increases, but these are outweighed by very significant negative numbers for losing two seats they were defending. Labour get small negative numbers for vote share decreases, and get smallish positives number for holding on to seats, and the latter are slightly bigger in total than the former. I'd say the parties are only fairly even if you think that actually winning the elections is relatively unimportant. I don't think that's a strong position to defend, tbh. And if you're going to put the weight heavily on vote swings, then just add up the vote swings, if that works for you. |
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Post by andrewp on May 27, 2022 10:33:48 GMT
Without getting into detail on the Index, that isn’t really how it feels to me this week. In the 3 contests where there were both Labour and Conservative candidates, there was a swing from Labour to Conservative in all 3. So factoring in the fact that Labour won 2 wards and the Conservatives none, I would say the two parties were fairly even this week. Well, the Cons do get small positive numbers for their vote share increases, but these are outweighed by very significant negative numbers for losing two seats they were defending. Labour get small negative numbers for vote share decreases, and get smallish positives number for holding on to seats, and the latter are slightly bigger in total than the former. I'd say the parties are only fairly even if you think that actually winning the elections is relatively unimportant. I don't think that's a strong position to defend, tbh. And if you're going to put the weight heavily on vote swings, then just add up the vote swings, if that works for you. Yes, fair enough. Everyone will have a slightly different opinion on good week/ bad week. Most people’s views will Probably be within a smallish range, but will be different. I base my view partly on my predictions. |
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Post by finsobruce on May 27, 2022 16:43:28 GMT
Redbridge / Mayfield Athwal, Jas Labour Party 2349 Elected
Khan, Tanweer Akhtar Labour Party 2148 Elected
Solanki, Vanisha Surendra Labour Party 2125 Elected Corbin, Carol Conservative Party Candidate 525 Begum, Maria Conservative Party Candidate 470 Khushi Pasha, Masood Conservative Party Candidate 360 Khanam, Sufia Liberal Democrats 229 Hussain, Majad Independent Network 218 www.redbridge.gov.uk/voting-and-elections/2022-local-election-results-summary/Corbinism still on the retreat.  |
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Post by froome on May 27, 2022 16:48:39 GMT
Redbridge / Mayfield Athwal, Jas Labour Party 2349 Elected
Khan, Tanweer Akhtar Labour Party 2148 Elected
Solanki, Vanisha Surendra Labour Party 2125 Elected Corbin, Carol Conservative Party Candidate 525 Begum, Maria Conservative Party Candidate 470 Khushi Pasha, Masood Conservative Party Candidate 360 Khanam, Sufia Liberal Democrats 229 Hussain, Majad Independent Network 218 www.redbridge.gov.uk/voting-and-elections/2022-local-election-results-summary/Corbinism still on the retreat. I'm not sure many of us thought it would retreat into the Conservative party...  |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 28, 2022 8:35:42 GMT
Corbinism still on the retreat.  I'm not sure many of us thought it would retreat into the Conservative party...  I won't be surprised, many of their policies are already to the left of Labour. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on May 28, 2022 10:25:51 GMT
There are certainly some extremely loud people on the Very Online Left who are openly hoping for a Johnson victory next time.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
Member is Online
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 28, 2022 11:57:20 GMT
There are certainly some extremely loud people on the Very Online Left who are openly hoping for a Johnson victory next time. Paging Merseymike .. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on May 29, 2022 9:35:06 GMT
Well in his defence he is hardly VOL (just see his current comments on Twitter/Facebook) and nor do I think he actually *wants* the Tories to win next time.
(he may think Starmer is no good and that increases the chances of such an outcome, but that is slightly different)
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Post by Merseymike on May 29, 2022 9:40:21 GMT
Well in his defence he is hardly VOL (just see his current comments on Twitter/Facebook) and nor do I think he actually *wants* the Tories to win next time. (he may think Starmer is no good and that increases the chances of such an outcome, but that is slightly different) Absolutely right. I would like a hung parliament as that will be the best chance of electoral reform. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 23, 2022 16:58:55 GMT
Well in his defence he is hardly VOL (just see his current comments on Twitter/Facebook) and nor do I think he actually *wants* the Tories to win next time. (he may think Starmer is no good and that increases the chances of such an outcome, but that is slightly different) Absolutely right. I would like a hung parliament as that will be the best chance of electoral reform. Just like happened in 1929, 1974, 2010, and 2015? |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 23, 2022 17:20:32 GMT
Absolutely right. I would like a hung parliament as that will be the best chance of electoral reform. Just like happened in 1929, 1974, 2010, and 2015? At no time then did Labour have any intention of enacting change. That may not be the case next time - given that another union voted for reform this week. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 23, 2022 17:48:16 GMT
Just like happened in 1929, 1974, 2010, and 2015? At no time then did Labour have any intention of enacting change. That may not be the case next time - given that another union voted for reform this week. Do you seriously think that could be accomplished in a hung Parliament? I supported electoral reform during the 1979 General Election when I was a candidate when it was even less popular than today. If this is to be enanacted it will require a solid Labour majority as well as a change of policy. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
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Post by ColinJ on Jun 23, 2022 18:17:05 GMT
Didn't the 1929 Labour Government introduce an AV bill which was a victim of the fall of the government in '31? (I stand to be corrected.)
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 23, 2022 19:51:49 GMT
At no time then did Labour have any intention of enacting change. That may not be the case next time - given that another union voted for reform this week. Do you seriously think that could be accomplished in a hung Parliament? I supported electoral reform during the 1979 General Election when I was a candidate when it was even less popular than today. If this is to be enanacted it will require a solid Labour majority as well as a change of policy. I think it's only likely in a hung parliament |
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