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Post by middleenglander on Apr 18, 2013 22:40:20 GMT
Arun DC, Angmering - Conservative hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Conservative | 878 | 63.9% | +22.2% | +24.0% | -5.0% | -3.6% | | Labour | 268 | 19.5% | +4.8% | +4.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems | 228 | 16.6% | +1.5% | +1.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | | | -14.4% | -14.8% | | | | UKIP | | | -14.2% | -14.6% | -31.1% | -32.5% | | Total votes | 1,374 | | -2,275 | -2,171 | -630 | -545 |
Swing Labour to Conservative 9% / 10% since 2011 - although as 3 Conservatives but only 1 each Labour, Lib Dem, Independent and UKIP concept may not be meaningful.
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Post by listener on Apr 19, 2013 0:23:36 GMT
Here is some background to the by-election in the Alsager Central ward of Alsager Town Council in the unitary Borough of Cheshire East. The 2007 town council elections were organized by the old Congleton Borough Council.
Alsager Town Council comprises 14 members, elected from each of three wards as follows – Alsager Central (4), Alsager East (6) and Alsager West (4).
The town is coterminous with the Alsager borough ward of Cheshire East.
The council strengths were:
Elections on 3 May 2007: Lib Dem 9, Ind 3, No Description 1, Lab 1
Only Alsager East ward was contested.
Elections on 5 May 2011: Lib Dem 7, Lab 3, Ind 1, Green Party 1, Vacant 2
Only Alsager Central ward was contested – with 2 vacancies subsequently filled by co-option.
The current Chairman and Deputy Chairman are both Liberal Democrats.
The result in Alsager Central ward on 3 May 2007 was:
Ind 2, Lib Dem 1, No Description 1 – unopposed
The result in Alsager Central ward on 5 May 2011 was:
Lib Dem 974, Ind 449/115, Green Party 402, Lab 308, No Description 201
Elected: Lib Dem 1, Ind 1, Green Party 1, Lab 1. The sitting Independent and No Description councillors lost their seats.
The by-election on 18 April 2013 in Alsager Central ward is caused by the resignation of Marion Camm (Independent).
The two candidates are Independent and Labour.
The result in the Alsager ward of Cheshire East Council on 1 May 2008 was
Lib Dem 2165/2095/2004, Con 1119/882/877, BNP 429/369/297, Lab 332/308/288
Elected: Lib Dem 3
The result in the Alsager ward of Cheshire East Council on 5 May 2011 was
Lib Dem 1895/1760/1648, Con 1193/1164/822, Lab 947/805/725, Green Party 439.
Elected: Lib Dem 3
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2013 9:13:32 GMT
Local Labour in West Sussex are claiming to have doubled their vote in Angmering, on the basis of a comparison with the by election in 2006. Leaving aside the anoraks' detail that (obviously) they mean vote share rather than vote, I think it's a twitter equivalent of the 'dodgy bar chart'  |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 19, 2013 9:53:05 GMT
Swing and vote changes in Arun really not very meaningful - I'd guess that a significant proportion of those who voted LD or Lab last time actually voted for both of them. I tried to find out how many ballot papers had actually been issued last time, but couldn't find it. But I'd suspect that the real Conservative vote share was somewhere between 60 and 70% rather than the c.40% you get on average vote share.
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Post by marksenior on Apr 19, 2013 9:58:41 GMT
Swing and vote changes in Arun really not very meaningful - I'd guess that a significant proportion of those who voted LD or Lab last time actually voted for both of them. I tried to find out how many ballot papers had actually been issued last time, but couldn't find it. But I'd suspect that the real Conservative vote share was somewhere between 60 and 70% rather than the c.40% you get on average vote share. turnout in 2011 was 44.3% around 2,700 voters so I would guesstimate around half the LD and Lab voters voted for both . |
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 19, 2013 10:06:53 GMT
Swing and vote changes in Arun really not very meaningful - I'd guess that a significant proportion of those who voted LD or Lab last time actually voted for both of them. I tried to find out how many ballot papers had actually been issued last time, but couldn't find it. But I'd suspect that the real Conservative vote share was somewhere between 60 and 70% rather than the c.40% you get on average vote share. Turnout last night was 23.4%. With 1,374 total valid votes and 14 spoilt that implies an electorate around 5,930. Turnout in 2011 was 44.83%. Assuming the electorate was similar to last night, then the number of ballot papers counted was some 2,650. The Conservatives polled 1,520 "top" candidate and 1,416 "average" giving a share of 57% and 53% respectively, say 55% against 64% last night. Whilst the "average" voter for the non Conservative candidates does not exist, they statistically voted for nearly 2 out of the 4 Labour, Lib Dems, UKIP and Independent using 2 out of their 3 votes.. |
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 19, 2013 10:20:04 GMT
Local Labour in West Sussex are claiming to have doubled their vote in Angmering, on the basis of a comparison with the by election in 2006. Leaving aside the anoraks' detail that (obviously) they mean vote share rather than vote, I think it's a twitter equivalent of the 'dodgy bar chart' Strictly speaking they are right in terms of votes and share. 2006 result was: Con 1,052 - 73.6%, increase of 10.2% Lib Dems 254 - 17.8%, down 18.8% Lab 123 - 8.6% from nowhere. Not sure whether such comparison from 7 years ago does add much to the sum of human knowledge |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2013 10:55:59 GMT
Local Labour in West Sussex are claiming to have doubled their vote in Angmering, on the basis of a comparison with the by election in 2006. Leaving aside the anoraks' detail that (obviously) they mean vote share rather than vote, I think it's a twitter equivalent of the 'dodgy bar chart' Strictly speaking they are right in terms of votes and share. 2006 result was: Con 1,052 - 73.6%, increase of 10.2% Lib Dems 254 - 17.8%, down 18.8% Lab 123 - 8.6% from nowhere. Not sure whether such comparison from 7 years ago does add much to the sum of human knowledge Agreed on both |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 19, 2013 12:07:59 GMT
Swing and vote changes in Arun really not very meaningful - I'd guess that a significant proportion of those who voted LD or Lab last time actually voted for both of them. I tried to find out how many ballot papers had actually been issued last time, but couldn't find it. But I'd suspect that the real Conservative vote share was somewhere between 60 and 70% rather than the c.40% you get on average vote share. Turnout last night was 23.4%. With 1,374 total valid votes and 14 spoilt that implies an electorate around 5,930. Turnout in 2011 was 44.83%. Assuming the electorate was similar to last night, then the number of ballot papers counted was some 2,650. The Conservatives polled 1,520 "top" candidate and 1,416 "average" giving a share of 57% and 53% respectively, say 55% against 64% last night.Whilst the "average" voter for the non Conservative candidates does not exist, they statistically voted for nearly 2 out of the 4 Labour, Lib Dems, UKIP and Independent using 2 out of their 3 votes Actually given the absence of UKIP (why?) and Indy candidates this time round, that sounds reasonable. A good result for the Tories in any case (certainly by recent standards) but not *quite* as spectacular as the usual measurements might imply. |
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Post by listener on Apr 19, 2013 12:21:00 GMT
Here is some background to the by-election in Wexham Court parish in the unitary Borough of Slough (Berkshire).
Wexham Court Parish Council comprises 11 members, elected from a single ward.
The parish forms part of the Wexham Lea borough ward of Slough.
The election on 3 May 2007 was uncontested, but the Council did not publish the SOPN on the website.
The result in Wexham Court on 5 May 2011 was:
Independent 8, Labour 3 unopposed
The current Chairman is Independent and the Vice-Chairman is Labour.
At the parish council meeting on 11 September 2012, it was reported that Dave Davies (Independent), a former chairman of the parish council, had retired and resigned from the council. The council coopted Paul Sohal, who is a Labour member of Slough Borough Council for Wexham Lea ward.
At the parish council meeting on 9 October 2012, it was noted that Keith Nunn (Independent) was missing meetings, because he was away studying. He had indicated that he would be willing to stand down, if members so required. Keith Nunn subsequently resigned and the council coopted Raja Muhammad Fayyaz to fill the vacancy.
The by-election on 18 April 2013 was called after Slough Borough Council project officer Vinay Vyas (Independent) stepped down, due to a potential conflict of interest after his job role changed.
The four candidates are 3 Independents (including the same Dave Davies who retired in Summer 2012) and 1 Labour.
The result was:
Trevor Allen (Lab) 551, Dave Davies (Independent) 220, Doreen Atkinson (Independent) 72, Kenneth Wright (Independent) 29.
Labour gain from Independent.
The make-up of the council is now Independent 5, Labour 5, Coopted 1
The result in the Wexham Lea ward of Slough Council on 4 May 2006 was Ind 945, Lab 716, Ind 354, Con 259.
The result in the Wexham Lea ward of Slough Council on 3 May 2007 was Ind 1432, Lab 1056.
The result in the Wexham Lea ward of Slough Council on 1 May 2008 was Ind 1137, Lab 977, Ind 171.
The result in the Wexham Lea ward of Slough Council on 6 May 2010 was Lab 1846, Ind 960, Con 827, Ind 508
The result in the Wexham Lea ward of Slough Council on 5 May 2011 was Lab 1632, Con 450, Ind 429, Ind 364.
The result in the Wexham Lea ward of Slough Council on 3 May 2012 was Lab 1257, Con 589, UKIP 176, Ind 158.
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Post by paulypaul on Apr 19, 2013 15:05:23 GMT
Here is some background to the by-election in the Alsager Central ward of Alsager Town Council in the unitary Borough of Cheshire East. The 2007 town council elections were organized by the old Congleton Borough Council. Alsager Town Council comprises 14 members, elected from each of three wards as follows – Alsager Central (4), Alsager East (6) and Alsager West (4). The town is coterminous with the Alsager borough ward of Cheshire East. The council strengths were: Elections on 3 May 2007: Lib Dem 9, Ind 3, No Description 1, Lab 1 Only Alsager East ward was contested. Elections on 5 May 2011: Lib Dem 7, Lab 3, Ind 1, Green Party 1, Vacant 2 Only Alsager Central ward was contested – with 2 vacancies subsequently filled by co-option. The current Chairman and Deputy Chairman are both Liberal Democrats. The result in Alsager Central ward on 3 May 2007 was: Ind 2, Lib Dem 1, No Description 1 – unopposed The result in Alsager Central ward on 5 May 2011 was: Lib Dem 974, Ind 449/115, Green Party 402, Lab 308, No Description 201 Elected: Lib Dem 1, Ind 1, Green Party 1, Lab 1. The sitting Independent and No Description councillors lost their seats. The by-election on 18 April 2013 in Alsager Central ward is caused by the resignation of Marion Camm (Independent). The two candidates are Independent and Labour. The result in the Alsager ward of Cheshire East Council on 1 May 2008 was Lib Dem 2165/2095/2004, Con 1119/882/877, BNP 429/369/297, Lab 332/308/288 Elected: Lib Dem 3 The result in the Alsager ward of Cheshire East Council on 5 May 2011 was Lib Dem 1895/1760/1648, Con 1193/1164/822, Lab 947/805/725, Green Party 439. Elected: Lib Dem 3 RESULT: Alsager TC - Central Ward Longhurst, Ind 563 Elected Newbould, Lab 156 www.cheshireeast.gov.uk/PDF/Alsager_Town_Council_Central_Ward_Declaration_of_Resultsv2.pdf |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 19, 2013 19:54:32 GMT
]Actually given the absence of UKIP (why?) and Indy candidates this time round, that sounds reasonable. A good result for the Tories in any case (certainly by recent standards) but not *quite* as spectacular as the usual measurements might imply. I've read somewhere that a UKIP nomination paper was submitted but one of the assentors was from outside the ward !! |
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