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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 24, 2022 13:27:32 GMT
The only way to tackle inflation is for the Bank of England to trigger a recession.
Governments rarely get re-elected when they’re in a recession.
And certainly not when half the party want to bin the leader.
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Post by aargauer on Jun 24, 2022 13:28:41 GMT
The only way to tackle inflation is for the Bank of England to trigger a recession. Governments rarely get re-elected when they’re in a recession. And certainly not when half the party want to bin the leader. Well, I think the recession is happening without much input from the bank of england... |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jun 24, 2022 13:48:12 GMT
Well, at least Labour are a clear second in Banbury, and have councillors, whereas Aylesbury is typical of a seat where the LD's fell behind post-coalition at a national level, but retain local strength. The idea of Labour winning Aylesbury is fanciful even though they always do worse locally in the Bucks towns than their national position indicates Aylesbury town is quite rundown, and quite working class, and is the sort of place where Labour might do quite well if the Liberals hadn’t got a lock on politics locally. It isn’t much different from Wycombe. But as in many other seats the town has to be topped up by rural areas where there is no Labour base, and no time for Labour, but which might be tempted by the more cuddly Liberals when the Conservatives are unpopular. If Liberals and Labour start coalescing behind the best placed challenger, as they did in 1997, the results could be as disastrous for the Conservatives as they were in 1997, with many bizarre losses. I think I would be concerned if I was a Conservative right now. The economic position looks uniformly gloomy for at least 18 months. The party itself has no political or ideological coherence. The public is tired after 12 years of Conservative rule, and the Conservatives are equally tired and out of ideas as usually happens after a long period in power. And Johnson has plainly become a liability, but the Conservatives are too divided to remove him. Agree with all that. Aylesbury also has vast new housing estates being built on the edge of town, which might help to trim off a little of the rural hinterland in subsequent boundary reviews. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 24, 2022 13:52:23 GMT
Well, at least Labour are a clear second in Banbury, and have councillors, whereas Aylesbury is typical of a seat where the LD's fell behind post-coalition at a national level, but retain local strength. The idea of Labour winning Aylesbury is fanciful even though they always do worse locally in the Bucks towns than their national position indicates Aylesbury town is quite rundown, and quite working class, and is the sort of place where Labour might do quite well if the Liberals hadn’t got a lock on politics locally. It isn’t much different from Wycombe. But as in many other seats the town has to be topped up by rural areas where there is no Labour base, and no time for Labour, but which might be tempted by the more cuddly Liberals when the Conservatives are unpopular. If Liberals and Labour start coalescing behind the best placed challenger, as they did in 1997, the results could be as disastrous for the Conservatives as they were in 1997, with many bizarre losses. I think I would be concerned if I was a Conservative right now. The economic position looks uniformly gloomy for at least 18 months. The party itself has no political or ideological coherence. The public is tired after 12 years of Conservative rule, and the Conservatives are equally tired and out of ideas as usually happens after a long period in power. And Johnson has plainly become a liability, but the Conservatives are too divided to remove him. Wycombe has more ethnic minorities. But yes, Labour under-poll in Aylesbury. It's a bit grim in parts. Given the historical success there and the rural part of the seat I still think the LibDems are in abetter place to challenge than Labour. Whereas Labour are definitely the challengers in Wycombe and the boundary changes will assist them there. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 24, 2022 14:06:20 GMT
Surely many of the people that would have won over voted LD irl? Unless country people are very different in the West Country to round here (they are not), then exactly, yes. It would have mildly reduced the majority in the same way that the former Conservative councillor running in Wakefield will have mildly reduced the Labour majority (he's a big man in the local Pakistani community - which is why he very surprisingly won a ward that is usually securely Labour in 2021 - and that's where the biggest section of his votes will have come from), but the result would still have ended up as an embarrassing catastrophe, much as the result in Wakefield still was. As it would have made things even funnier it's a pity that he didn't, but we can't have everything. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 24, 2022 14:09:42 GMT
I still don't know why either MP resigned. They ought to have dug in like the SNP sex pests. Dugging in is only available to those North of Hadrian's Wall. |
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Post by john07 on Jun 24, 2022 14:26:00 GMT
I still don't know why either MP resigned. They ought to have dug in like the SNP sex pests. Dugging in is only available to those North of Hadrian's Wall. Is that anything to do with Dogging? |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 24, 2022 14:32:11 GMT
I still don't know why either MP resigned. They ought to have dug in like the SNP sex pests. Dugging in is only available to those North of Hadrian's Wall. Geordies? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 24, 2022 14:32:47 GMT
What's the theory of change here? It's an overwhelmingly rural constituency with very little territory you could reasonably call Exeter overspill. Neither Okehampton nor Crediton is exactly a proletarian stronghold. Demographically, it just doesn't look like anywhere Labour have ever won. If there was a long-term sleeper target for Labour in Devon, it'd be East Devon. The Exeter wards there are getting increasingly good for Labour, it's much more suitable commuter territory, Exmouth is somewhere where we ought to have potential to improve and with Clare Wright not standing again there's an opportunity to become the presumptive anti-Tory option. No chance. I agree it was a rather striking result that they picked up Topsham, one of the two wards in the Exeter City Council area, in May. But they were some way off in the other, St Loyes. So the Exeter wards are alright for them but no more than that. They won not a single ward in East Devon District in the last round there in 2019. They've won one since... but ironically that's in Honiton rather than this seat. This is a seat including Budleigh Salterton, Sidmouth, and a lot of other deep blue areas. In areas of more potential like Exmouth, the Lib Dems retain a reasonably strong presence (not what it once was, but they've not melted away). Look, Claire Wright is a force of nature and did phenomenally well to hoover up the anti-Tory vote AND appeal to enough Tories to be genuinely competitive. But in the end she came up short by a bit of a distance - 7k last time, 8k in 2017. She and her team can be enormously proud, but unless she does a volte face and returns to the front-line (or there's another by-election at some stage), East Devon isn't going anywhere, and certainly not into the Labour column, in the foreseeable future. I don't disagree with that - I described it as a long-term sleeper target, not one actually worth resourcing now. It's more the sort of seat that could be interesting in a good year in a couple of decades, if population growth means it grabs an additional chunk of Exeter, loses more countryside and if enough Labour voters have taken advantage of a decent railway link to move out to Exmouth. So it's a long-shot and a long-term long shot, but it's slightly less unlikely as a Labour prospect than Central Devon. |
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Post by sirnorfolkpassmore on Jun 24, 2022 15:11:55 GMT
No chance. I agree it was a rather striking result that they picked up Topsham, one of the two wards in the Exeter City Council area, in May. But they were some way off in the other, St Loyes. So the Exeter wards are alright for them but no more than that. They won not a single ward in East Devon District in the last round there in 2019. They've won one since... but ironically that's in Honiton rather than this seat. This is a seat including Budleigh Salterton, Sidmouth, and a lot of other deep blue areas. In areas of more potential like Exmouth, the Lib Dems retain a reasonably strong presence (not what it once was, but they've not melted away). Look, Claire Wright is a force of nature and did phenomenally well to hoover up the anti-Tory vote AND appeal to enough Tories to be genuinely competitive. But in the end she came up short by a bit of a distance - 7k last time, 8k in 2017. She and her team can be enormously proud, but unless she does a volte face and returns to the front-line (or there's another by-election at some stage), East Devon isn't going anywhere, and certainly not into the Labour column, in the foreseeable future. I don't disagree with that - I described it as a long-term sleeper target, not one actually worth resourcing now. It's more the sort of seat that could be interesting in a good year in a couple of decades, if population growth means it grabs an additional chunk of Exeter, loses more countryside and if enough Labour voters have taken advantage of a decent railway link to move out to Exmouth. So it's a long-shot and a long-term long shot, but it's slightly less unlikely as a Labour prospect than Central Devon. Fair enough, although you're really looking at a very different seat by that stage. It already stretches the name "East Devon" as you'd rather strongly suspect it might border Dorset or Somerset, but it doesn't. I believe the Boundary Commission are proposing an Exmouth seat, which I agree starts to look better for Labour, although also for the Lib Dems. It essentially loses some of the bluest bits to Honiton, while Tiverton drifts off to a frankly baffling cross-county seat stretching all the way to Minehead and beyond into the Quantocks - I can only assume the Boundary Commission knocked that particular map out on a Friday afternoon ahead of a long weekend, having had a couple of sherries to stiffen their resolve. I suspect Exeter's population would need to grow materially, and Exmouth would need to contract further to become a fairly tight, South Exeter/Exe Estuary seat in order to put it seriously into play, as even the proposals have enough true blue there, and very much the bluer bits of Exeter, to make it a stretch. But by then, I think the seat isn't comparable with the existing one. It's really just saying that Labour could do okay in the town of Exmouth as the demographics are alright (although it has a lot of wealthy pensioners who can't quite afford Sidmouth/Budleigh. That is kind of true although (defection aside) they haven't to date. |
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Post by batman on Jun 24, 2022 15:34:36 GMT
There is no 'Mid Devon' seat. Mid Devon district is mostly in this constituency. If you're talking about Central Devon, it was already the case that there are nearby seats where the Lib Dems will be concentrating more effort (North Devon, Newton Abbott etc). Labour's overperformance in Central Devon at the last couple of general elections has been remarked upon here, but the notion they might actually win there is for the birdsInsert the words "next time" there, and I would agree. And it was originally cogload 's mistake, not mine  I think Pete is right. Labour will not be winning Mid Devon in a general election. Not just the next one. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jun 24, 2022 16:07:49 GMT
I don't disagree with that - I described it as a long-term sleeper target, not one actually worth resourcing now. It's more the sort of seat that could be interesting in a good year in a couple of decades, if population growth means it grabs an additional chunk of Exeter, loses more countryside and if enough Labour voters have taken advantage of a decent railway link to move out to Exmouth. So it's a long-shot and a long-term long shot, but it's slightly less unlikely as a Labour prospect than Central Devon. Fair enough, although you're really looking at a very different seat by that stage. It already stretches the name "East Devon" as you'd rather strongly suspect it might border Dorset or Somerset, but it doesn't. I believe the Boundary Commission are proposing an Exmouth seat, which I agree starts to look better for Labour, although also for the Lib Dems. It essentially loses some of the bluest bits to Honiton, while Tiverton drifts off to a frankly baffling cross-county seat stretching all the way to Minehead and beyond into the Quantocks - I can only assume the Boundary Commission knocked that particular map out on a Friday afternoon ahead of a long weekend, having had a couple of sherries to stiffen their resolve. I suspect Exeter's population would need to grow materially, and Exmouth would need to contract further to become a fairly tight, South Exeter/Exe Estuary seat in order to put it seriously into play, as even the proposals have enough true blue there, and very much the bluer bits of Exeter, to make it a stretch. But by then, I think the seat isn't comparable with the existing one. It's really just saying that Labour could do okay in the town of Exmouth as the demographics are alright (although it has a lot of wealthy pensioners who can't quite afford Sidmouth/Budleigh. That is kind of true although (defection aside) they haven't to date. Have never been to that part of the coast between Exmouth and Seaton, are some of the towns more upmarket/expensive than others? I assume there is an older demographic, but Exmouth is younger? |
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Post by graham on Jun 24, 2022 16:29:42 GMT
I think the idea this helps any Westcountry Tory MPs is complete fantasy. The Lib Dems had been completely eradicated in the area - their nearest MP was way up in Bath, which is well out of the TV/media area and may as well be in Birmingham if you're from the Westcountry proper. The absolute last thing you need as a Tory is a visible revival - a yellow MP running around getting on the gogglebox; renewed self-confidence amongst their activists; a sharpened tactical squeeze message ("look, Labour voter, at how they kicked the Tories out in Tiverton - wouldn't you like a bit of that in Taunton?" It's like saying that you're delighted to see a mouse back in the house having thought you'd got rid of them, as at least it'll keep the cat on its toes. It's over-thought nonsense. It's a little more mixed for Labour, but I tend to think it's bad for them in the Westcountry overall (although not nationally). On the one hand, they get some positive tactical message out of it. On the other they were the sole opposition voice in the Westcountry with MPs in Exeter and Plymouth (again, Bristol is out of the media area) and this feeds into a "the way to beat the Tories in this region is with the Lib Dems" which was true to 2010 but had been dying out as a concept. I think you are right with regard to the LibDems. However, I think that what has become clear is that different parts of the West Country will have different challengers to the Tories. Take Cornwall. Its obvious that in Truro and Falmouth, and Camborne and Redruth, it will be Labour. In St Ives, North Cornwall and Cornwall SE, the LibDems. Labour can only win Johnny Mercer's Plymouth seat, where he has a significant personal vote, in Devon, other than the seats they already hold. They are simply not in contention anywhere else, and they are out of the picture in Somerset altogether. And have been for a long time. The decline of the LibDems did largely nothing to boost Labour other than put them in a very poor second in some unwinnable seats such as Tiverton and Honiton. Labour is not out of contention in NE Somerset - Rees Mogg's seat. It held on to second place in 2019 in the face of a lot of LD hype that they were the main challengers there. In 2010 Labour was within 5,000 of winning despite that being a good LD year . The former Wansdyke seat had been Labour-held and the new seat was notionally neck and neck in 2005. |
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Post by sirnorfolkpassmore on Jun 24, 2022 18:17:25 GMT
Fair enough, although you're really looking at a very different seat by that stage. It already stretches the name "East Devon" as you'd rather strongly suspect it might border Dorset or Somerset, but it doesn't. I believe the Boundary Commission are proposing an Exmouth seat, which I agree starts to look better for Labour, although also for the Lib Dems. It essentially loses some of the bluest bits to Honiton, while Tiverton drifts off to a frankly baffling cross-county seat stretching all the way to Minehead and beyond into the Quantocks - I can only assume the Boundary Commission knocked that particular map out on a Friday afternoon ahead of a long weekend, having had a couple of sherries to stiffen their resolve. I suspect Exeter's population would need to grow materially, and Exmouth would need to contract further to become a fairly tight, South Exeter/Exe Estuary seat in order to put it seriously into play, as even the proposals have enough true blue there, and very much the bluer bits of Exeter, to make it a stretch. But by then, I think the seat isn't comparable with the existing one. It's really just saying that Labour could do okay in the town of Exmouth as the demographics are alright (although it has a lot of wealthy pensioners who can't quite afford Sidmouth/Budleigh. That is kind of true although (defection aside) they haven't to date. Have never been to that part of the coast between Exmouth and Seaton, are some of the towns more upmarket/expensive than others? I assume there is an older demographic, but Exmouth is younger? I don't pretend to know the stats but would suggest Exmouth is a fair bit younger - it has a pretty vibrant nightlife (I mean that in a relative sense - it's not Ibiza, but it has a couple of nightclubs and youth-orientated bars). Some of that is people coming in from Exeter for a trip to the seaside as it's got an okay train service from the university/college part of Exeter. But it's also got a decent youth population, and is good for working age commuters. It's also got a child-friendly, sandy beach. Also, it has to be said, Exmouth has a bit more grot. It's a nice place, and there are significant very posh areas with detached homes and so on. But the housing stock isn't as good as elsewhere overall. That's partly due to the sandy beach and access - it's not Great Yarmouth by any means, but there is an aspect of being a seaside resort of the type we all know, which has known some slightly trickier times as holiday habits have evolved. Sidmouth and Budleigh Salterton are a good deal older and posher. It's not impossible to commute in to Exeter - people do, but it's a drive and somewhat of a faff. They aren't really "resorts" in the same way as Sidmouth is shingle and Budleigh pebble. They have visitors as they have some pretty views and so on (and Sidmouth has a very popular folk festival so is very busy one week a year). But the people there are basically residents, and these are essentially nice and fairly pricey retirement areas. Nothing is uniform of course - but that's very much the vibe - better off pensioners. Elsewhere on that stretch, you have largely rather chocolate-boxy villages - Salcombe Regis, Beer, Colaton Raleigh, and so on. Again, nothing is uniform and you'll get a cluster of Council and ex-Council properties here and there which feel a bit run down. But by and large it's pretty upmarket. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 24, 2022 18:51:11 GMT
At this rate about half the Lib Dem parliamentary party will end up being by election winners That must have nearly been the case by the end of the 1992-97 Parliament |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 24, 2022 18:52:48 GMT
I think you are right with regard to the LibDems. However, I think that what has become clear is that different parts of the West Country will have different challengers to the Tories. Take Cornwall. Its obvious that in Truro and Falmouth, and Camborne and Redruth, it will be Labour. In St Ives, North Cornwall and Cornwall SE, the LibDems. Labour can only win Johnny Mercer's Plymouth seat, where he has a significant personal vote, in Devon, other than the seats they already hold. They are simply not in contention anywhere else, and they are out of the picture in Somerset altogether. And have been for a long time. The decline of the LibDems did largely nothing to boost Labour other than put them in a very poor second in some unwinnable seats such as Tiverton and Honiton. Labour is not out of contention in NE Somerset - Rees Mogg's seat. It held on to second place in 2019 in the face of a lot of LD hype that they were the main challengers there. In 2010 Labour was within 5,000 of winning despite that being a good LD year . The former Wansdyke seat had been Labour-held and the new seat was notionally neck and neck in 2005. Well, the question will be which party is seen to be in the best place to challenge the Tories. The problem being that as Labour and Lib Dem literally split the opposition down the middle last time it's not entirely obvious. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 24, 2022 18:52:59 GMT
It was the case at the end of the 1970-74 Parliament (more than half I think*)
*I'm trying to do the maths in my head but I can think of five seats they gained at byelections (Ely, Berwick, Ripon, Sutton & Cheam, Rochdale) and they only had six to start with (with David Steel himself having been first elected at a byelection)
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 24, 2022 19:04:11 GMT
Labour is not out of contention in NE Somerset - Rees Mogg's seat. It held on to second place in 2019 in the face of a lot of LD hype that they were the main challengers there. In 2010 Labour was within 5,000 of winning despite that being a good LD year . The former Wansdyke seat had been Labour-held and the new seat was notionally neck and neck in 2005. Well, the question will be which party is seen to be in the best place to challenge the Tories. The problem being that as Labour and Lib Dem literally split the opposition down the middle last time it's not entirely obvious. I think many people there vote LD at local elections and switch back to Labour at a GE. Given Labour's poor 2019 result nationally - and strong LD claims to be the main anti- Tory challenger - it seems unlikely that Labour will lose second place in a scenario where they are ahead in national polling - or neck and neck with the Tories. Much the same is true of 2010 when Cleggmania did not lead to second place for the LDs here. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 24, 2022 19:05:39 GMT
Well, the question will be which party is seen to be in the best place to challenge the Tories. The problem being that as Labour and Lib Dem literally split the opposition down the middle last time it's not entirely obvious. I think many people there vote LD at local elections and switch back to Labour at a GE. Given Labour's poor 2019 result nationally - and strong LD claims to be the main anti- Tory challenger - it seems unlikely that Labour will lose second place in a scenario where they are ahead in national polling - or neck and neck with the Tories. Much the same is true of 2010 when Cleggmania did not lead to second place for the LDs here. It's going to be difficult to make that stick though, whereas in most places it's a lot more obvious. |
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Post by graham on Jun 24, 2022 19:16:08 GMT
I think many people there vote LD at local elections and switch back to Labour at a GE. Given Labour's poor 2019 result nationally - and strong LD claims to be the main anti- Tory challenger - it seems unlikely that Labour will lose second place in a scenario where they are ahead in national polling - or neck and neck with the Tories. Much the same is true of 2010 when Cleggmania did not lead to second place for the LDs here. It's going to be difficult to make that stick though, whereas in most places it's a lot more obvious. Many voters will recall having a Labour MP for Wansdyke until 2010 - indeed he is now the West of England Mayor. On paper, this should be easier for Labour than what faces them in the two London seats of Cities of London & Westminster and Finchley & Golders Green. Both were Labour -held until 2010 and very rarely has Labour not been the main challenger there. In 2019 Labour fell back to 3rd place in those seats - but I confidently expect that to be an aberration in that the LD candidates were high profile Labour defectors via Change UK.. In NE Somerset many may feel misled by the 2019 LD claims - and be disinclined to believe that talk again - if Labour appears to be performing well nationally.
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