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Post by agbutler on May 19, 2022 23:12:00 GMT
Greens win this one
Green: 547
Lab: 418
Con: 377
LD: 35
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Post by kevinf on May 19, 2022 23:14:10 GMT
Well that’s upset the prediction competition! And Shadsy’s got my beer money…
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Post by middleenglander on May 19, 2022 23:25:59 GMT
Lancaster: Ellel - Green gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Green | 547 | 39.7% | +19.5% | +20.2% | +22.4% | +23.8% | | Labour | 418 | 30.4% | -1.2% | -1.9% | +6.6% | +5.6% | | Conservative | 377 | 27.4% | -14.4% | -14.6% | -31.5% | -32.0% | | Liberal Democrat | 35 | 2.5% | -4.0% | -3.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 1,377 |
| 100% | 103% | 57% | 60% |
Swing: Conservative to Green 17% / 17½% since 2019 and 27% / 28% since 2015
Council now: 15 Labour, 11 Green, 10 Conservative, 10 Morecambe Bay Independents, 5 Independent Group, 4 Liberal Democrats, 4 Eco-Socialists, 1 vacancy
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on May 19, 2022 23:38:03 GMT
Didn't seen that one coming! Always nice to see more Greens on a council than Tories.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
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Post by ricmk on May 20, 2022 0:51:43 GMT
I make that 3 defences, 3 losses for the blue team since May 5th. When does their first/next win come?
And even with the anti-Con vote badly split between Lab and Green, they still couldn't hold on.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on May 20, 2022 0:57:17 GMT
I make that 3 defences, 3 losses for the blue team since May 5th. When does their first/next win come? And even with the anti-Con vote badly split between Lab and Green, they still couldn't hold on. Next week, I reckon they can kiss goodbye to the Spelthorne seat. North Kesteven could be a Tory hold, but in the current climate I wouldn't bet on it. |
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Post by agbutler on May 20, 2022 1:05:29 GMT
I make that 3 defences, 3 losses for the blue team since May 5th. When does their first/next win come? And even with the anti-Con vote badly split between Lab and Green, they still couldn't hold on. North Kesteven next week probably, and if not there Breckland on 9th June |
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Post by froome on May 20, 2022 3:51:30 GMT
Didn't seen that one coming! Always nice to see more Greens on a council than Tories. A relatively comfortable win as well. Did Labour campaign to win the seat? Presumably jamesgroves would know? |
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Post by John Chanin on May 20, 2022 6:10:05 GMT
But I have bookmarked medium and it still isn’t showing. Wish Britain Elects would mend its website which has been down for over 2 months now. Apparently the link was on “/@britainelects” rather than simply “/britainelects” where it was previously. I have no idea what is going on and presumably iang found it through twitter. This is all so irritating. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on May 20, 2022 6:37:54 GMT
GWBWI
Grn +59
Lab -2
LDm -2
Con -74
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Post by andrewteale on May 20, 2022 7:12:41 GMT
But I have bookmarked medium and it still isn’t showing. Wish Britain Elects would mend its website which has been down for over 2 months now. Apparently the link was on “/@britainelects” rather than simply “/britainelects” where it was previously. I have no idea what is going on and presumably iang found it through twitter. This is all so irritating. If it's any consolation, I don't know much about what's going on there either. |
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Post by minionofmidas on May 20, 2022 7:31:12 GMT
Maybe go oldschool and post them to uselectionatlas again?
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on May 20, 2022 7:33:44 GMT
But I have bookmarked medium and it still isn’t showing. Wish Britain Elects would mend its website which has been down for over 2 months now. Apparently the link was on “/@britainelects” rather than simply “/britainelects” where it was previously. I have no idea what is going on and presumably iang found it through twitter. This is all so irritating. Trying to remember - yesterday was such a long time ago! Think I googled for it, found last week's and then that linked to this week's |
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Post by Robert Waller on May 20, 2022 9:17:27 GMT
Greens win this one Green: 547 Lab: 418 Con: 377 LD: 35 This went up on Britain Elects twitter last night: Ellel (Lancaster) council by-election result: GRN: 39.7% (+19.5) LAB: 30.4% (-1.2) CON: 27.4% (-14.4) LDEM: 2.5% (-4.0) Votes cast: 1,377 Green GAIN from Conservative. |
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Post by owainsutton on May 20, 2022 9:26:01 GMT
Didn't seen that one coming! Always nice to see more Greens on a council than Tories. A relatively comfortable win as well. Did Labour campaign to win the seat? Presumably jamesgroves would know? Yes, they did. Well, by their measure  |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on May 20, 2022 9:29:02 GMT
I make that 3 defences, 3 losses for the blue team since May 5th. When does their first/next win come? And even with the anti-Con vote badly split between Lab and Green, they still couldn't hold on. Moreover these three seats were all ones they managed to win in 2019, and in two of them they finished in third place. |
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Post by jamesgroves on May 20, 2022 10:38:53 GMT
Didn't seen that one coming! Always nice to see more Greens on a council than Tories. A relatively comfortable win as well. Did Labour campaign to win the seat? Presumably jamesgroves would know? Labour had 25-30 volunteers out on polling day and successfully held on to its 2019 vote. The vote switchers were overwhelmingly from Con to Green - and credit where it's due, the Greens were very good at persuading longstanding Conservative voters to support them this time. Something like one-third of previously Conservative voters voted Green, causing the Con and Green numbers to more-or-less swap places, with Labour staying in 2nd place. This is something we also witnessed in the 'Scotforth Rural' portion of University & Scotforth Rural Ward, in the 11 Nov 2021 by-election (although Scotforth Rural is a tiny portion of the University & Scotforth Rural Ward so this shift didn't affect the overall result that day). There were very few Labour to Green switchers in Ellel, and very few Con to Lab switchers. Some of the Green advance is just because they properly campaigned this time (they had a paper candidate in 2019), but mainly it's because so many previously Con voters decided to vote Green this time (rather than stay at home, or switch to Labour). Turnout was high for a local by-election: 37.83%. For those who know the area, this is how we think it broke down: - Cockerham (ELLA): Green narrowly ahead of Con, Lab distant 3rd - Galgate (ELLB/ELLC/ELLD): Lab narrowly ahead of Green, Con distant 3rd - Dolphinholme (ELLE): Lab and Green roughly even, Con just behind - Abbeystead (ELLF): Con narrowly ahead of Green, Lab distant 3rd - Glasson and Thurnham (ELLG): Green overwhelmingly ahead, Con and Lab roughly even but way behind - Postals: Con and Green roughly even, Lab some way behind The Con to Green shift was everywhere; the only place we detected any Lab to Green movement was in Glasson, where the Green candidate lives. ELLA and ELLG lie in the Lancaster Central county council division which is a Green seat. The Greens spent a lot of time pushing a bar chart (based on, er, Green Party polling) showing 'Greens and Conservatives neck and neck' - this may have had some impact, in persuading disaffected Conservatives to offer their vote to the Greens this time. J |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on May 20, 2022 17:53:19 GMT
But I have bookmarked medium and it still isn’t showing. Wish Britain Elects would mend its website which has been down for over 2 months now. Apparently the link was on “/@britainelects” rather than simply “/britainelects” where it was previously. I have no idea what is going on and presumably iang found it through twitter. This is all so irritating. I don’t think iang found it on Twitter, BE didn’t Tweet the link until 10.37, after his post. |
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