Post by Robert Waller on Apr 23, 2022 20:37:32 GMT
The Boundary Commission has had a tendency to name constituencies in Nottinghamshire after ancient administrative divisions such as hundreds, or rather wapentakes, as the county was once situated in the Danelaw rather than under continuous Anglo-Saxon sovereignty. Therefore we currently have Rushcliffe and Bassetlaw as well as Broxtowe. There is no single community of that name. What makes the position even more confusing here is that from 1918 to 1955 there was a former incarnation of a Broxtowe seat, which only had a minority of territory in common with the current one and which was in fact more similar to the present Ashfield.
The division under discussion here has been closely based since its inception in 1983 on the borough of Broxtowe, which has existed since 1974, and which was in turn largely based on the former urban district of Beeston and Stapleford; which to make matters even more confusing, was until 1974 the largest single component of a very different Rushcliffe seat from the current one – indeed it was marginal rather than forming the safe Conservative base for Kenneth Clarke that it proved to be for the best part of 50 years.
In case anyone still has the will to live, it is also true that between 1974 and 1983 this constituency’s name was plain Beeston, which was in all probability its clearest form. What is sure is that Broxtowe is a Conservative-Labour marginal. It was won by Tony Blair’s New Labour from 1997 to 2010, and by the Tories between 1983 and 1992 and since 2010. It has therefore been won each time by whichever party became the largest in the Commons and formed a government. In 2019 the Conservative majority over Labour was 9.6% compared with 11.5% nationally. It is therefore still close to the two-party average position.
The current Broxtowe essentially covers the western suburbs of the city of Nottingham, stretching (not very far) to the border with Derbyshire. It is therefore the mirror of Gedling, which plays a similar role to the east of the urban Nottingham core. One of the reasons why Nottingham has three safe Labour seats at present is because of the way the middle class owner occupied residential peripheral zone is outside the borders of the city – the same applies to the south where such famed Nottingham sporting venues as Trent Bridge cricket ground and the ground of former footballing greats Nottingham Forest are both in fact in the Rushcliffe district and constituency.
Broxtowe has an above average proportion of owner occupied housing, a far lower ethnic minority presence than Nottingham itself, and is distinctly above average in its share of professional and managerial workers and those with high educational qualifications. The latter is influenced by the presence of the main University of Nottingham campus just over the border from Beeston North ward; in fact the Broxtowe seat was in the top five per cent of seats for employment in education in the most recent available census. This may influence the fact that the Conservative members who have won here have tended to the left of the party – Jim Lester (up to 1997), who passed away fairly recently, was well known as someone who got on well personally with a wide strand of political opinion, while Anna Soubry (2010-19) was not exactly that, but an aggressive pro-European who ended here by standing for the Independent Group for Change in 2019. Labour’s Nick Palmer (1997-2010) was notably open to discussion on one of the rival internet sites to this one.
Of course, like all constituencies, there are variations within Broxtowe. The constituency covers a number of different communities of which Beeston is only the largest. In the May 2021 Nottinghamshire county council elections, Labour won the Beeston Central & Rylands division by nearly two to one from the Tories – this being an amalgam of their strongest wards on the district council. Stapleford & Broxtowe Central split its representation between the two largest parties. However the Liberal Democrats, not a factor at parliamentary level, did win Bramcote & Beeston North, the division nearest to Nottingham University campus, easily in 2021. The Conservatives were narrowly ahead of Labour in Toton, Chilwell & Attenborough – and more comfortably in the Nuthall & Kimberley division.
This reflects the situation on Broxtowe council too (which is currently no overall control with the Conservatives as largest party but a Labour//LD/Independent coalition in office). The Tories do best in the more rural areas and villages, which are mainly in effect suburban commuting bases for Nottingham: Watnall, Nuthall, Strelley, Awsworth, and Cossall. The small town of Kimberley does not have a diamond mine, unlike its better known offspring in South Africa, but it did historically have coalmining (Kimberley Colliery itself closed as far back as 1896) and a brewery (which closed in 2006). Even more recent coal mining is no longer a solid indicator of Labour support, though, and in the most recent borough contests in 2019 Conservatives led the party lists here behind only a lone Independent. On the borough council too, the Lib Dems have recently taken the more intellectual wards of Bramcote (44% with degrees) and Beeston North (36%). Labour do best in Beeston Central, West and Beeston Rylands, and in parts of the more working-class Stapleford.
In the forthcoming boundary changes, the provisional suggestions have not changed the name, unlike in the case of Bassetlaw, where the wapentake-derived moniker has been switched to a town-based one. However there are quite significant changes. The proposals remove some of the Tory villages, Nuthall, Strelley and Watnall, along with Kimberley, to a Nottingham North & Kimberley division. This adds up to about 17.5% of the current Broxtowe. In exchange, territory is moved in from Ashfield; but this is in essence the community of Eastwood, ex-mining and forever associated with its most famous son D.H.Lawrence.
Eastwood is not as strongly Labour as it once was, but it is certainly more Labour than the territory moved out of the Broxtowe seat. Therefore although notionally all of the 5,331 majority of the 2019 Conservative victor Darren Henry will not be wiped out, probably most of it will, given the confirmation of the proposals. Broxtowe is still a key marginal, and now one that should be high on Labour’s target list - but probably now slightly canted to Labour from its previous super-bellwether location. If there is a change of government in the next general election, this key seat will yet again most likely return a member to the winning benches.
General Election 2019: Broxtowe
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Darren Henry 26,602 48.1 +1.3
Labour Greg Marshall 21,271 38.5 −6.8
The Independent Group for Change Anna Soubry 4,668 8.5 New
Green Kat Boettge 1,806 3.3 +2.1
English Democrat Amy Dalla Mura 432 0.8 New
Independent Teck Khong 321 0.6 New
Militant Elvis Anti-HS2 David Bishop 172 0.3 New
C Majority 5,331 9.6 +8.1
Turnout 55,272 75.7 +0.7
Conservative hold
Swing 4.1 Lab to C
2011 Census
Age 65+ 18.2% 224/650
Owner-occupied 73.5% 106/650
Private rented 14.6 % 300/650
Social rented 10.5% 564 /650
White 91.9% 398/650
Black 1.0% 274/650
Asian 4.7% 244/650
Managerial & professional 35.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 24.0%
Employed in education 13.7% 24/650
Degree level 30.3% 176/650
No qualifications 21.8% 337/650
Students 8.8% 180/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 71.9% 119/573
Private rented 17.9% 298/573
Social rented 10.2% 509/573
White 87.8%
Black 1.8%
Asian 6.2%
Managerial & professional 36.9% 169/573
Routine & Semi-routine 22.1% 347/573
Degree level 36.3% 166/573
No qualifications 16.3% 364/573
The division under discussion here has been closely based since its inception in 1983 on the borough of Broxtowe, which has existed since 1974, and which was in turn largely based on the former urban district of Beeston and Stapleford; which to make matters even more confusing, was until 1974 the largest single component of a very different Rushcliffe seat from the current one – indeed it was marginal rather than forming the safe Conservative base for Kenneth Clarke that it proved to be for the best part of 50 years.
In case anyone still has the will to live, it is also true that between 1974 and 1983 this constituency’s name was plain Beeston, which was in all probability its clearest form. What is sure is that Broxtowe is a Conservative-Labour marginal. It was won by Tony Blair’s New Labour from 1997 to 2010, and by the Tories between 1983 and 1992 and since 2010. It has therefore been won each time by whichever party became the largest in the Commons and formed a government. In 2019 the Conservative majority over Labour was 9.6% compared with 11.5% nationally. It is therefore still close to the two-party average position.
The current Broxtowe essentially covers the western suburbs of the city of Nottingham, stretching (not very far) to the border with Derbyshire. It is therefore the mirror of Gedling, which plays a similar role to the east of the urban Nottingham core. One of the reasons why Nottingham has three safe Labour seats at present is because of the way the middle class owner occupied residential peripheral zone is outside the borders of the city – the same applies to the south where such famed Nottingham sporting venues as Trent Bridge cricket ground and the ground of former footballing greats Nottingham Forest are both in fact in the Rushcliffe district and constituency.
Broxtowe has an above average proportion of owner occupied housing, a far lower ethnic minority presence than Nottingham itself, and is distinctly above average in its share of professional and managerial workers and those with high educational qualifications. The latter is influenced by the presence of the main University of Nottingham campus just over the border from Beeston North ward; in fact the Broxtowe seat was in the top five per cent of seats for employment in education in the most recent available census. This may influence the fact that the Conservative members who have won here have tended to the left of the party – Jim Lester (up to 1997), who passed away fairly recently, was well known as someone who got on well personally with a wide strand of political opinion, while Anna Soubry (2010-19) was not exactly that, but an aggressive pro-European who ended here by standing for the Independent Group for Change in 2019. Labour’s Nick Palmer (1997-2010) was notably open to discussion on one of the rival internet sites to this one.
Of course, like all constituencies, there are variations within Broxtowe. The constituency covers a number of different communities of which Beeston is only the largest. In the May 2021 Nottinghamshire county council elections, Labour won the Beeston Central & Rylands division by nearly two to one from the Tories – this being an amalgam of their strongest wards on the district council. Stapleford & Broxtowe Central split its representation between the two largest parties. However the Liberal Democrats, not a factor at parliamentary level, did win Bramcote & Beeston North, the division nearest to Nottingham University campus, easily in 2021. The Conservatives were narrowly ahead of Labour in Toton, Chilwell & Attenborough – and more comfortably in the Nuthall & Kimberley division.
This reflects the situation on Broxtowe council too (which is currently no overall control with the Conservatives as largest party but a Labour//LD/Independent coalition in office). The Tories do best in the more rural areas and villages, which are mainly in effect suburban commuting bases for Nottingham: Watnall, Nuthall, Strelley, Awsworth, and Cossall. The small town of Kimberley does not have a diamond mine, unlike its better known offspring in South Africa, but it did historically have coalmining (Kimberley Colliery itself closed as far back as 1896) and a brewery (which closed in 2006). Even more recent coal mining is no longer a solid indicator of Labour support, though, and in the most recent borough contests in 2019 Conservatives led the party lists here behind only a lone Independent. On the borough council too, the Lib Dems have recently taken the more intellectual wards of Bramcote (44% with degrees) and Beeston North (36%). Labour do best in Beeston Central, West and Beeston Rylands, and in parts of the more working-class Stapleford.
In the forthcoming boundary changes, the provisional suggestions have not changed the name, unlike in the case of Bassetlaw, where the wapentake-derived moniker has been switched to a town-based one. However there are quite significant changes. The proposals remove some of the Tory villages, Nuthall, Strelley and Watnall, along with Kimberley, to a Nottingham North & Kimberley division. This adds up to about 17.5% of the current Broxtowe. In exchange, territory is moved in from Ashfield; but this is in essence the community of Eastwood, ex-mining and forever associated with its most famous son D.H.Lawrence.
Eastwood is not as strongly Labour as it once was, but it is certainly more Labour than the territory moved out of the Broxtowe seat. Therefore although notionally all of the 5,331 majority of the 2019 Conservative victor Darren Henry will not be wiped out, probably most of it will, given the confirmation of the proposals. Broxtowe is still a key marginal, and now one that should be high on Labour’s target list - but probably now slightly canted to Labour from its previous super-bellwether location. If there is a change of government in the next general election, this key seat will yet again most likely return a member to the winning benches.
General Election 2019: Broxtowe
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Darren Henry 26,602 48.1 +1.3
Labour Greg Marshall 21,271 38.5 −6.8
The Independent Group for Change Anna Soubry 4,668 8.5 New
Green Kat Boettge 1,806 3.3 +2.1
English Democrat Amy Dalla Mura 432 0.8 New
Independent Teck Khong 321 0.6 New
Militant Elvis Anti-HS2 David Bishop 172 0.3 New
C Majority 5,331 9.6 +8.1
Turnout 55,272 75.7 +0.7
Conservative hold
Swing 4.1 Lab to C
2011 Census
Age 65+ 18.2% 224/650
Owner-occupied 73.5% 106/650
Private rented 14.6 % 300/650
Social rented 10.5% 564 /650
White 91.9% 398/650
Black 1.0% 274/650
Asian 4.7% 244/650
Managerial & professional 35.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 24.0%
Employed in education 13.7% 24/650
Degree level 30.3% 176/650
No qualifications 21.8% 337/650
Students 8.8% 180/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 71.9% 119/573
Private rented 17.9% 298/573
Social rented 10.2% 509/573
White 87.8%
Black 1.8%
Asian 6.2%
Managerial & professional 36.9% 169/573
Routine & Semi-routine 22.1% 347/573
Degree level 36.3% 166/573
No qualifications 16.3% 364/573
