Slovenia, elections

[Georg Ebner]

[The forum has not less than 3 threads to specific elections in Slovenia with together not more than 53 replies - so could the BossMan merge them in this one, please?]

[Georg Ebner]

ParliamentaryElec. will take place this sunDay. A leftliberal party emerged - surprise, surprise... -, this time a Greenish one. Unlikely, that Jansa can remain in office. Already this term it happened only because the leftlib. government before had fallen apart. OpinionPolls:

[BossMan]

Apr 21, 2022 22:29:13 GMT Georg Ebner said:

[The forum has not less than 3 threads to specific elections in Slovenia with together not more than 53 replies - so could the BossMan merge them in this one, please?]

I've checked out the other threads and they were both referencing a specific set of elections. Additionally neither has been updated for several years now so I don't really forsee it being an issue.

[stodge]

Just worth noting the different Slovenian pollsters may not be as impartial as we think.

Parsifal polls for Nova24TV, a rolling news channel owned by one of Jansa's supporters and it usually has a higher SDS poll number than others.

Mediana and Ninamedia poll for centre-left supporting news outlets.

My reading is a deadheat between Jansa and Golob but the latter may be in a better position to form a Government.

[rcronald]

Slovenia seems to pick a new centrist party every election only to abandon it to another newer centrist party in the next election.

[Georg Ebner]

Apr 24, 2022 16:09:55 GMT rcronald said:

Slovenia seems to pick a new centrist party every election only to abandon it to another newer centrist party in the next election.

Not exactly "centrist", but "left-liberal".

[Georg Ebner]

No official numbers are out so far, but a pollster asked 15.000 voters and revealed these spectacular numbers:

Not sure, they have ever had only 5-6 parties in parliament.

[stodge]

Early Mediana exit poll indicating a big win for Svoboda with 35.8% of the vote and likely to win 42 seats in the 90 seat National Assembly.

[Merseymike]

The winning party are essentially a left-liberal Green party. They should be able to form a coalition with two other left of centre parties.

[Georg Ebner]

Apr 24, 2022 20:28:09 GMT Merseymike said:

The winning party are essentially a left-liberal Green party. They should be able to form a coalition with two other left of centre parties.

Yes, they announced already to talk (initially) only with them.
Yet, Levica/Left let the last mid-left government collapse and come Jansa in plus survived only narrowly, what makes their participation unlikely. Remain the exCommies of SD, whose participation i would rate at 95% probability.

[Georg Ebner]

Interesting article (+maps) on the geographical patterns:

metinalista.si/skrita-geografija-parlamentarnih-volitev-2022/

As maps of 1st or SDS-strength already indicated, SDS&NSi&allies had held up best in rural&remote areas. But the urban-rural division was sharper some times before.