Prediction Competition - April 2022

[iainbhx]

Dorset UA, Lyme & Charmouth: Ind 38, Con 36, Grn 18, Lab 8
East Riding of Yorkshire UA, South Hunsley: Con 50, LDm 33, Lab 13, Grn 4
High Peak DC, Cote Heath: Con 47, Lab 45, Grn 8
Horsham DC, Storrington & Washington: Con 46, Grn 34, LDm 20
Liverpool MBC, Everton: Lab 70, Grn 15, Con 4.5, Lib 4, TUSC 3.5, LDm 3
Liverpool MBC, Warbreck: Lab 60, LDm 28, Grn 8, Con 4
Mid Devon DC, Collompton South: LDm 45, Con 42, Lab 13
Telford & Wrekin UA, Brookside: Lab 48, Con 44, LDm 8
Wolverhampton MBC, East Park: Lab 57, Con 43

[greenhert]

Sorry this is late.

Dorset UA, Lyme & Charmouth: Independent (Reynolds) 41, Green 28, Conservative 24, Labour 7.
East Yorkshire UA, South Hunsley: Conservative 54, Liberal Democrats 22, labour 16, Green 8.
High Peak DC, Cote Heath: Labour 48, Conservative 42, Green 10.
Horsham DC, Storrington & Washington: Conservative 48, Liberal Democrats 44, Green 8.
Liverpool MBC, Everton: Labour 71, Green 11, Liberal 5.5, TUSC 5, Conservative 4, Liberal Democrats 3.5.
Liverpool MBC, Warbreck: Labour 68, Liberal Democrats 21, Green 6, Conservative 5.
Mid Devon DC, Cullompton South: Conservative 49, Liberal Democrats 44, Labour 7. Conservative gain from Independent.
Telford & Wrekin UA, Brookside: Labour 47, Conservative 43, Liberal Democrats 10.
Wolverhampton MBC, East Park: Labour 55, Conservative 45.

[Andrew_S]

I was intending to enter but forgot. Sorry about that.

[robbienicoll]

11 entries to kick off the month with AJS missing. All correct, with greenhert posting nearly an hour over the deadline. The faults would normally be 5x9 but due to the large number of contests I've halved this to 22.5.

Lyme and Charmouth, Dorset: 7 Independent (Reynolds) gain from Conservative with Richard Cromwell, Right Leaning and Robert Waller Conservative hold and peterl Green gain.
South Hunsley, East Riding of Yorkshire: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 17% (iainbhx over Lib Dem) to 41% (andykernow and Richard Cromwell over Lib Dem and Labour respectively).
Cote Heath, High Peak: 9 Labour hold, with iainbhx and Robert Waller Conservative gain.
Storrington and Washington, Horsham: 10 Conservative hold, with Richard Cromwell Lib Dem gain.
Everton, Liverpool: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 32% (kevinf and peterl) to 64% (Richard Cromwell).
Warbreck, Liverpool: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 32% (iainbhx) to 59% (Richard Cromwell).
Cullompton South, Mid Devon: 7 Conservative gain from Independent, with andrewp, iainbhx, kevinf and peterl Lib Dem gain.
Brookside, Telford and Wrekin: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 4% (greenhert and iainbhx) to 29% (johnloony).
East Park, Wolverhampton: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (greenhert) to 32% (Richard Cromwell).

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19b1BmWBH_C_OB2mqZ4p4fSLZdTYwDDb958k-CVFWzoE/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Congratulations to iainbhx for what I think was a convincing victory in a very difficult week to predict.

[kevinf]

April 14
Durham. Lab 49, Con 42, Ind 9
Maldon. Ind (Burwood) 30, Con 25, Lab 16, LD 15, Ind (Perry) 14
Surrey Heath. Con 51, LD 49
Tewkesbury. ND 40, LD 31, Con 29

[johnloony]

DURHAM: West Auckland: Lab 50 Con 37 Ind 13
MALDON: Heybridge West: Con 38 IndB 29 Lab 18 IndP 8 LD 7
SURREY HEATH: Bisley and West End: Con 52 LD 48
TEWKESBURY: Brockworth East: (-) 65 Con 18 LD 17

[peterl]

DURHAM: West Auckland: Lab 54 Con 31 Ind 15
MALDON: Heybridge West: IndP 34 Con 29 Lab 22 LD 9 IndB 6
SURREY HEATH: Bisley and West End: LD 54 Con 46
TEWKESBURY: Brockworth East: ND 62 LD 22 Con 16

[andykernow]

DURHAM - West Auckland - Lab Gain from Con

Labour - 48%
Conservative - 30%
Independent - 22%

MALDON - Heybridge West - Con gain from Ind

Conservative - 40%
Labour - 21%
Liberal Democrat - 18%
Independent P - 15%
Independent B - 6%

SURREY HEATH - Bisley & West End - Lib Dem Gain from Con

Liberal Democrat - 51%
Conservative - 49%

TEWKESBURY - Brockworth East - ND gain from Ind

No Description - 46%
Conservative - 36%
Liberal Democrat - 18%

[Richard Cromwell]

Bisley & West End, Surrey Heath

CON	60%
LDM	40%

Heybridge West, Maldon

Simon Burwood	33%
CON	32%
Richard Perry	23%
LAB	9%
LDM	3%

Brockworth East, Tewkesbury

IND	51%
CON	28%
LDM	21%

West Auckland, County Durham

LAB	54%
CON	27%
IND	19%

[greenhert]

Durham UA, West Auckland: Labour 51, Conservative 34, Independent (Brown) 15.
Maldon DC, Heybridge West: Independent (Burwood) 42, Conservative 35, Liberal Democrats 11, Labour 10, Independent (Perry) 2.
Surrey Heath DC, Bisley & West End: Conservative 58, Liberal Democrats 42.
Tewkesbury DC, Brockworth East: Jason Mills (No Description) 62, Conservative 24, Liberal Democrats 14.

[Tony Otim]

Durham: Lab 46.4; Con 42.7; Brown 10.9
Maldon: Burwood 36.3; Con 30.5; Lab 17.1; Perry 10.0; LD 6.1
Surrey Heath: LD 53.2; Con 46.8
Tewkesbury: Mills 73.0; LD 15.1; Con 11.9

[Smartie]

Durham: Lab 52.1; Con 35.5; Brown 12.4
Maldon: Burwood 32.8; Con 31.2; Lab 19.3; Perry 10.2; LD 6.1
Surrey Heath: LD 56.7; Con 43.3
Tewkesbury: Mills 68; LD 22.6; Con 9.4

[andrewp]

Durham. Lab 51, Con 35, Ind 14
Maldon. Burwood 34 Con 29, Perry 18, LD 9, Lab 10
Surrey Heath, LD 54, Con 46
Tewkesbury, Mills 72, LD 15, Con 13

[Robert Waller]

Durham. Lab 50, Con 40, Ind 10

Maldon. Ind Burwood 39, Con 33, Ind Perry 5, LD 15, Lab 8

Surrey Heath. LD 53, Con 47

Tewkesbury. N/D Mills 70, LD 15, Con 15

[Andrew_S]

Durham: Con 43, Lab 41, Ind 16
Maldon: Con 34, Ind Burwood 32, Lab 18, LD 11, Ind Perry 5
Surrey Heath: LD 51, Con 49
Tewkesbury: Mills 45, Con 29, LD 26

[rightleaning]

Durham. Lab 50, Con 34, Ind 16
Maldon. Burwood 36, Con 29, Perry 18, LD 11, Lab 6
Surrey Heath, LD 52, Con 48
Tewkesbury, Mills 65, Con 23, LD 12

[iainbhx]

Durham UA, West Auckland: Lab 46, Con 39, Ind Brown 15
Maldon DC, Heybridge West: Ind Burwood 34, Con 32, Ind Perry 14, LDm 12, Lab 8
Surrey Heath DC, Bisley & West End: LDm 51 Con 49
Tewkesbury DC, Brockworth East: ND Mills 66 LDm 20 Con 14

[Robert Waller]

Now all the results for the week (and month!) are in, and in advance of Robbie's authoritative figures ...

... I think it is safe to congratulate iainbhx for the monthly win. I do hope he doesn't hold it to be another 'fluke'!

As for the week, it's closer, but roughly I'm making a provisional guess that andrewp is in first place. However whether he's overtaken me for second place for the month of April is beyond my fuzzy maths.

Finally, I do think Smartie has made a very creditable debut, and may be on the podium for the week.

[iainbhx]

I think any final result which hinged on Maldon is a fluke for anyone.