Prediction Competition - April 2022

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 13 by-elections during April.

- 9 by-elections on 7 April
- 4 on 14 April

6 by-elections are for District Councils, one of which was last contested in a 2021 by-election and another in a 2019 by-election, both of which had the last regular election in 2019, and the remaining 4 last contested in 2019
4 are for Unitary Authorities, 1 of which was last contested in 2021 and 3 in 2019
3 are for Metropolitan Boroughs last contested in 2021

Conservatives defend 5 of the by-election seats, 2 following the death of the previous councillor and 3 a resignation
Labour defend 5 seats, 2 following the death of the previous councillor and 3 a resignation, 1 of which was sitting as an Independent
Independents defend 3 seats, 2 following a resignation and 1 a disqualification

With all candidates declared there is a full slate of 13 Conservative candidates, 10 Labour, 9 Liberal Democrats, 6 Greens and 1 apiece for the Liberals and TUSC together with 4 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 4 seats
- a total of 45 candidates for 13 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[johnloony]

DORSET: Lyme & Charmouth: Ind 37 Con 36 Lab 15 Grn 12
EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE: South Hunsley: Con 59 LD 24 Lab 13 Grn 4
HIGH PEAK: Cote Heath: Lab 48 Con 39 Grn 13
HORSHAM: Storrington & Washington: Con 47 LD 37 Grn 16
LIVERPOOL: Everton: Lab 56 Grn 19 Con 12 LD 7 Lib 5 TUSC 1
LIVERPOOL: Warbreck: Lab 63 LD 17 Grn 12 Con 8
MID DEVON: Cullompton South: Con 39 LD 38 Lab 23
TELFORD & WREKIN: Lab 55 Con 26 LD 19
WOLVERHAMPTON: East Park: Lab 63 Con 37

[peterl]

DORSET: Lyme & Charmouth: Green 32 Con 30 Ind 27 Lab 11
EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE: South Hunsley: Con 50 LD 29 Lab 15 Green 6
HIGH PEAK: Cote Heath: Lab 48 Con 42 Green 10
HORSHAM: Storrington & Washington: Con 44 LD 39 Green 17
LIVERPOOL: Everton: Lab 53 Green 21 Con 10 LD 8 Lib 7 TUSC 1
LIVERPOOL: Warbreck: Lab 59 LD 20 Green 14 Con 7
MID DEVON: Cullompton South: LD 42 Con 40 Lab 18
TELFORD & WREKIN: Lab 52 Con 27 LD 21
WOLVERHAMPTON: East Park: Lab 61 Con 39

[robert1]

Can we please have a competition for the first and last authorities to post the full SOPN.

Not sure which will be first but, if I remember correctly, Manchester has a fair record, along with Reading, of being last or nearly last!

[Tony Otim]

Apr 5, 2022 13:55:08 GMT robert1 said:

Can we please have a competition for the first and last authorities to post the full SOPN.

Not sure which will be first but, if I remember correctly, Manchester has a fair record, along with Reading, of being last or nearly last!

Dudley is usually one of the worst.

[Tony Otim]

Apr 5, 2022 14:00:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

Apr 5, 2022 13:55:08 GMT robert1 said:

Can we please have a competition for the first and last authorities to post the full SOPN.

Not sure which will be first but, if I remember correctly, Manchester has a fair record, along with Reading, of being last or nearly last!

Dudley is usually one of the worst.

But Tower Hamlets have a go this year...

[John Chanin]

Dudley are a very good bet for last, based on previous experience. Although there’s usually some piddling District Council like North Kesteven that fails to get it together.

[iain]

Watford are usually pretty slow too I think

[robert1]

And the winner appears to be Green Christian and Walsall 

[kevinf]

Dorset. Ind 41, Con 34, Green 16, Lab 9
East Riding Con 49, LD 31, Lab 14, Green 6
High Peak Lab 49, Con 41, Green 10
Horsham Con 52, LD 38, Green 10
Liverpool Everton. Lab 50, Green 18, Liberal 12, LD 10, Con 8, TUSC 2
Liverpool Warbeck. Lab 55, LD 19, Green 16, Con 10
Mid Devon LD 45, Con 42, Lab 13
Telford Lab 40, LD 35, Con 25
Wolves. Lab 59, Con 41

[Tony Otim]

Apr 5, 2022 14:44:10 GMT iain said:

Watford are usually pretty slow too I think

They're one of the first!

[Tony Otim]

Apr 5, 2022 15:37:57 GMT Tony Otim said:

Apr 5, 2022 14:44:10 GMT iain said:

Watford are usually pretty slow too I think

They're one of the first!

Or not as it turned out...

[Tony Otim]

Dorset: Ind 30.6; Con 29.5; Grn 27.2; Lab 12.7
East Riding: Con 56.0; LD 17.8; Grn 14.9; Lab 11.3
High Peak: Lab 46.6; Con 44.7; Grn 8.7
Horsham: Con 43.4; Grn 32.7; LD 23.9
Liverpool Everton: Lab 73.0; Grn 12.0; Con 5.1; LD 4.6; Lib 3.7; TUSC 1.6
Liverpool Warbreck: Lab 67.5; LD 19.4; Grn 7.9; Con 5.2
Mid Devon: Con 42.9; LD 38.1; Lab 19.0
Telford & wrekin: Lab 50.0; Con 27.0; LD 23.0
Wolverhampton: Lab 65 2, Con 34.8

[andykernow]

DORSET - Lyme & Charmouth - Ind Gain from Con

Independent - 40%
Conservative - 38%
Green - 15%
Labour - 7%

EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE - Con Hold

Conservative - 61%
Liberal Democrat - 20%
Labour - 12%
Green - 7%

HIGH PEAK - Cote Heath - Lab Hold

Labour - 48%
Conservative - 30%
Green - 22%

HORSHAM - Storrington & Washington - Con Hold

Conservative - 64%
Liberal Democrat - 30%
Green - 6%

LIVERPOOL - Everton - Lab Hold

Labour - 72%
Green - 12%
Conservative - 10%
Liberal Democrat 3%
Liberal Party - 2%
TUSC - 1%

LIVERPOOL - Warbreck - Lab Hold

Labour - 60%
Liberal Democrat - 20%
Green - 13%
Conservative - 7%

MID DEVON - Cullompton South - Con Gain from Ind

Conservative - 48%
Liberal Democrat -43%
Labour - 9%

TELFORD & WREKIN - Brookside - Lab Hold

Labour - 51%
Conservative - 28%
Liberal Democrat - 21%

WOLVERHAMPTON - East Park - Lab Hold

Labour - 60%
Conservative - 40%

[John Chanin]

Apr 5, 2022 13:55:08 GMT robert1 said:

Can we please have a competition for the first and last authorities to post the full SOPN.

Not sure which will be first but, if I remember correctly, Manchester has a fair record, along with Reading, of being last or nearly last!

At 4.30 I think we have just 4 to come:  Nuneaton, Newham, Lambeth & Manchester.

Nuneaton I think.  Only election agents up at 5.15

[Richard Cromwell]

Brookside, Telford and Wrekin

LAB	49%
LDM	28%
CON	23%

Everton, Liverpool

LAB	74%
GRN	10%
LIB	6%
LDM	5%
CON	3%
TUSC	2%

Storrington & Washington, Horsham

LDM	41%
CON	40%
GRN	19%

East Park, Wolverhampton

LAB	66%
CON	34%

Cote Heath, High Peak

LAB	56%
CON	38%
GRN	6%

Lyme & Charmouth, Dorset

CON	33%
IND	30%
LAB	19%
GRN	18%

South Hunsley, East Riding of Yorkshire

CON	57%
LAB	16%
LDM	15%
GRN	12%

Cullompton South, Mid Devon

CON	42%
LDM	39%
LAB	19%

Warbreck, Liverpool

LAB	75%
LDM	16%
GRN	6%
CON	3%

[John Chanin]

Apr 6, 2022 15:33:04 GMT John Chanin said:

Apr 5, 2022 13:55:08 GMT robert1 said:

Can we please have a competition for the first and last authorities to post the full SOPN.

Not sure which will be first but, if I remember correctly, Manchester has a fair record, along with Reading, of being last or nearly last!

At 4.30 I think we have just 4 to come:  Nuneaton, Newham, Lambeth & Manchester.

Nuneaton I think.  Only election agents up at 5.15

jamesdoyle has found an obscure link from yesterday with Nuneaton data.  I think Manchester just beat Lambeth therefore, and the latter wins robert1 ‘s prize.  

My memories of Lambeth, admittedly from the last century, were that the council was a total shambles.  One of my former staff members took a job there, which paid around the same I earned, and told me he had virtually nothing to do, and the organization was as bad as its reputation.  I do however believe that things have improved since then, even if they can’t get it together to post their SOPN.

[andrewp]

Dorset. Lyme and Charmouth. Ind 36, Con 34, Green 21, Lab 9
East Riding, South Hunsley. Con 55, LD 21, Lab 14, Green 10
High Peak, Cote Heath. Lab 47, Con 43, Green 10
Horsham. Storrington and Washington. Con 48, Green 35, LD 17
Liverpool. Everton Lab 68, Green 12, LD 7, Con 5, LIb 5, TUSC 3
Liverpool, Warbreck. Lab 69, LD 16, Green 9, Con 6
Mid Devon, Cullompton South. LD 47, Con 45, Lab 8
Telford and Wrekin, Brookside. Lab 55, Con 30, LD 15
Wolverhampton, East Park. Lab 64, Con 36

[Robert Waller]

Dorset, Lyme and Charmouth. Ind 34, Con 36, Green 17, Lab 13

East Riding, South Hunsley. Con 55, LD 27, Lab 12, Green 6

High Peak, Cote Heath. Lab 46, Con 48, Green 6

Horsham. Storrington and Washington. Con 52, Green 35, LD 13

Liverpool. Everton Lab 68, Green 17, LD 3, Con 6, Lib 3, TUSC 3

Liverpool, Warbreck. Lab 65, LD 20, Green 9, Con 6

Mid Devon, Cullompton South. LD 40, Con 50, Lab 10

Telford and Wrekin, Brookside. Lab 53, Con 32, LD 15

Wolverhampton, East Park. Lab 62, Con 38

[rightleaning]

Dorset, Lyme and Charmouth. Con 39, Ind 30, Green 21, Lab 10

East Riding, South Hunsley. Con 59, LD 22, Lab 10, Green 9

High Peak, Cote Heath. Lab 48, Con 44, Green 8

Horsham. Storrington and Washington. Con 62, Green 28, LD 10

Liverpool. Everton Lab 65, Green 21, LD 7, Con 4, Lib 2, TUSC 1

Liverpool, Warbreck. Lab 67, LD 22, Green 7, Con 4

Mid Devon, Cullompton South. Con 48, LD 39, Lab 13

Telford and Wrekin, Brookside. Lab 49, Con 35, LD 16

Wolverhampton, East Park. Lab 65, Con 35