Clark
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Post by Clark on Apr 10, 2022 9:36:31 GMT
And would've John Smith won as big a landslide as Blair did in 1997?
Unlikely but we would have been spared 'that song'.
Agree. Maybe still a 3 figure majority but probably not 170. I believe there a lot of nationalism when it comes to elections. Would Kinnock have won in 92 if he was English? Possibly. Labour did awful in 2010 except in Scotland where they did very well (Gordon Brown - Scottish Prime minister) One exception would be Charles Kennedy who did well in 2005 nationwide |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 10, 2022 11:54:38 GMT
Portillo. He would have won in 1992, he would have won again in 1997. I really, really don't think so. Nothing and nobody could have saved CON in 1997. The best result and the fewer losses would have been under Clarke. Going back to 1990, I don't think its a state secret that Heseltine was the one Labour was most worried about. His big drawback is that he would have been divisive within the party to a certain degree (both for his pro-Europeanism and having "knifed" Maggie) but his plus points mean he might still have looked like a winner which would have (as always) quelled dissent to a significant extent. It is likely he would have called a GE sometime in 1991, and won a bigger majority than Major actually did. And whether he was still there or not, the Tories surely wouldn't have lost the following election as badly. |
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 10, 2022 17:35:06 GMT
Unlikely but we would have been spared 'that song'.
Agree. Maybe still a 3 figure majority but probably not 170. I believe there a lot of nationalism when it comes to elections. Would Kinnock have won in 92 if he was English? Possibly. Labour did awful in 2010 except in Scotland where they did very well (Gordon Brown - Scottish Prime minister) One exception would be Charles Kennedy who did well in 2005 nationwide I think you're reading nationalism into things. The reality is that 1997 Tony Blair and 2005 Charles Kennedy were very charismatic, a quality which Neil Kinnock and John Smith both lacked. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 10, 2022 17:51:29 GMT
Agree. Maybe still a 3 figure majority but probably not 170. I believe there a lot of nationalism when it comes to elections. Would Kinnock have won in 92 if he was English? Possibly. Labour did awful in 2010 except in Scotland where they did very well (Gordon Brown - Scottish Prime minister) One exception would be Charles Kennedy who did well in 2005 nationwide I think you're reading nationalism into things. The reality is that 1997 Tony Blair and 2005 Charles Kennedy were very charismatic, a quality which Neil Kinnock and John Smith both lacked. Kinnock had some charisma (his 1985 conference speech showed that). What he lacked was a sense of being 'prime-ministerial' (John Smith had that in spades but lacked charisma). Part of that with Kinnock was I suspect his Welshness but its impossible to quantify that in terms of votes. I doubt there are many people who might have voted Labour in 1992 had Kinnock (all else being equal) been English but who declined to do so specifically because he was Welsh |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2022 7:49:20 GMT
The performance of parties whose leaders had Scottish or Welsh seats:
1964 - Douglas-Home (Kinross & West Perthshire) - lost GE
1979 - Callaghan (Cardiff South East) - lost GE
1983 - Foot (Blaenau Gwent) - lost GE
1987 - Kinnock (Islwyn) - lost GE
1992 - Kinnock (Islwyn) - lost GE
2010 - Brown (Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath) - lost GE
Andrew Bonar Law (CON - Glasgow Central) in 1922 was the last party leader with a non-English seat to win a General Election, IIRC.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Apr 11, 2022 7:52:44 GMT
Would the ERM fiasco have happened under Redwood? He would probably have still lost due to sleeze in 1997 but if the economic record had been better the result could well have been closer.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 11, 2022 9:49:37 GMT
Though in what scenario does he become PM before 1995?
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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 11, 2022 10:21:52 GMT
The performance of parties whose leaders had Scottish or Welsh seats: 1964 - Alec Douglas-Home (Kinross & Western Perthshire) - lost GE 1979 - James Callaghan (Cardiff South East) - lost GE 1983 - Michael Foot (Blaenau Gwent) - lost GE 1987 - Neil Kinnock (Islwyn) - lost GE 1992 - Neil Kinnock (Islwyn) - lost GE 2010 - Gordon Brown (Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath) - lost GE Andrew Bonar Law (CON - Glasgow Central) in 1922 was the last party leader with a non-English seat to win a General Election, IIRC. Which would make 1923 or 1924 (debate "the winner") the first election since 1874 in which the winning leader was elected for an English seat. Quite a turnaround. I think before then elections were always won by leaders with either English seats or peerages? |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Apr 11, 2022 10:27:47 GMT
Though in what scenario does he become PM before 1995?
I thought someone had mentioned it, but that was probably Portillo on the other thread.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 11, 2022 12:22:34 GMT
I have voted 'Better' on the terms of the Thread as titled.
I think that Redwood would have made a good PM with better chosen and structured set of ministers, better structure to the fabric of policymaking and far greater general competence at running the Cabinet and the Country.
the problem I see is in getting him elected to Leader and getting then getting him elected as PM for the first time. But in the thread those are 'givens'.
Once PM I think he might have impressed enough to get re-elected and the 1992 Parliament would have had different personnel and a better record on most levels and possibly less sleaze? That and competence would have secured a more consolidated core vote and thus a less serious defeat in 1997. The Blair experience would have triumphed in nearly any circumstance as far as I can see because of party fatigue and being in power for so long. But the Conservatives might have still looked competent enough to merit better support.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 12, 2022 7:04:10 GMT
Would the ERM fiasco have happened under Redwood? He would probably have still lost due to sleeze in 1997 but if the economic record had been better the result could well have been closer. He wouldn't have taken us into the ERM but that relies on him being ChX post Lawson. Even on a rapid career trajectory, he'd have been Chief Secretary at best. Would he have tried to prop up the pound in the wholly unnecessary way that Major and Lamont did? Probably not. I wouldn't have (although all my knowledge and undergrad modelling was in hindsight) and the benefits would have been immediate, possibly even leading to Rover surviving. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Apr 12, 2022 16:26:56 GMT
I think you're reading nationalism into things. The reality is that 1997 Tony Blair and 2005 Charles Kennedy were very charismatic, a quality which Neil Kinnock and John Smith both lacked. Kinnock had some charisma (his 1985 conference speech showed that). What he lacked was a sense of being 'prime-ministerial' (John Smith had that in spades but lacked charisma). Part of that with Kinnock was I suspect his Welshness but its impossible to quantify that in terms of votes. I doubt there are many people who might have voted Labour in 1992 had Kinnock (all else being equal) been English but who declined to do so specifically because he was Welsh It's probably possible to have both in spades. Lloyd George. Even Gladstone was a bit ambiguous – he was certainly more at home in Hawarden. The problem's really that the Welsh Labour Party has continued to encourage pygmyism. Where is anyone of the calibre of, say, Roger Roberts or Glyn Davies? Or even Elis Thomas for that matter? I don't know why Labour are so good at only selecting miserably inept Welsh people. |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 14, 2022 21:41:06 GMT
The performance of parties whose leaders had Scottish or Welsh seats: 1964 - Douglas-Home (Kinross & West Perthshire) - lost GE 1979 - Callaghan (Cardiff South East) - lost GE 1983 - Foot (Blaenau Gwent) - lost GE 1987 - Kinnock (Islwyn) - lost GE 1992 - Kinnock (Islwyn) - lost GE 2010 - Brown (Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath) - lost GE Andrew Bonar Law (CON - Glasgow Central) in 1922 was the last party leader with a non-English seat to win a General Election, IIRC.Surprisingly enough that is correct. No Labour leader representing a non-English seat has ever won a general election. |
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Post by swingometer on Apr 9, 2024 10:41:39 GMT
Though in what scenario does he become PM before 1995? Major took Tony Marlow’s advice on board and stood down after the Euro elections in 1994. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 9, 2024 10:45:39 GMT
Which still doesn't stop the ERM debacle happening, as was claimed upthread.
And why would Redwood have any more chance in a 1994 leadership election than the actual 1995 one?
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Post by therealriga on Apr 9, 2024 11:30:46 GMT
It's hard to see any circumstances in which Redwood would have won. Probably the more interesting question is what would have happened if Major had got a bit less support. Major says he'd set a threshold of 215 votes below which he would have resigned. He just cleared that with 218 votes. In the event of his resignation do we get Heseltine vs Portillo? Heseltine could possibly have saved a few seats in 1997. Are you sure, no one could have saved the Tories after the VAT on fuel budget announcement in 1993, Redwood has a financial background as a banker as well, no Referendum Party to worry about either! Well, I said a few seats, not saving the Tories, who were going to lose badly no matter who the leader. |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Apr 9, 2024 19:08:34 GMT
No referendum party to worry about, no, but he'd have lost just as many votes... just to Labour instead.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 9, 2024 21:44:43 GMT
Got to have been a chance that Redwood's premiership in 1995 would have turned out like Liz Truss's in 2022.
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Post by swingometer on Apr 10, 2024 4:27:38 GMT
Here are the MP’s who we know definitely voted for him. Interesting the number of them in marginal seats.
Bill Cash MP, Stafford
Iain Duncan Smith MP, Chingford
Teresa Gorman MP, Billericay
Barry Legg MP, Milton Keynes South West
Sir Richard Body MP, Boston and Skegness
Christopher Gill MP, Ludlow
Tony Marlow MP, Northampton North
David Evans MP, Welwyn Hatfield (was Redwood’s PPS as Welsh Secretary)
Edward Leigh MP, Gainsborough
George Gardiner MP, Reigate
James Cran MP, Beverley
Bill Walker MP, Tayside North
Jacques Arnold MP, Gravesham
Roger Knapman MP, Stroud
Secret ballot so we don’t know the others, can anyone give any predictions?
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Apr 10, 2024 6:12:54 GMT
Which still doesn't stop the ERM debacle happening, as was claimed upthread. And why would Redwood have any more chance in a 1994 leadership election than the actual 1995 one?
Because in this alternative scenario, he'd properly learnt the Welsh National Anthem and was the toast of the whole British nation for doing so whilst singing it in a really relaxed manner.
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