Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2022 6:38:30 GMT
Would Redwood being PM have made much difference to what happened in 1997?
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 28, 2022 6:53:27 GMT
Worse, Major was likeable, Redwood not.
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Post by willpower3 on Mar 28, 2022 8:37:33 GMT
The Canada 1993 scenario that was feared by the Tories eventuates.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 28, 2022 9:41:50 GMT
@conservativeestimate is aiming to fill this entire forum up by himself
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2022 9:49:30 GMT
Who thinks Redwood would do better than Major in 1997?
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 28, 2022 12:41:05 GMT
We would probably have entered into diplomatic relations with Mars.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 28, 2022 13:47:29 GMT
Who thinks Redwood would do better than Major in 1997? John Redwood must have an account on here. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2022 6:26:15 GMT
Which Tories could have done better than Major in 1997?
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 29, 2022 6:39:52 GMT
Ken Clarke, possibly?
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Mar 29, 2022 10:01:09 GMT
Never got why some people seemed to like him. He would have created even more division than Sir John Major did. It would be difficult to think of two worse individuals to lead the Conservative Party. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 29, 2022 10:07:16 GMT
Never got why some people seemed to like him. He would have created even more division than Sir John Major did. It would be difficult to think of two worse individuals to lead the Conservative Party. Isn't the idea to appeal to people *outside* your party, to attract them to vote for you? Whatever you think of him, Clarke had a reasonably broad appeal, including looking like a member of the human race, something that Redwood never has done. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 29, 2022 10:30:53 GMT
Maybe, there was also Heseltine of course. But both would still have lost. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 29, 2022 10:50:00 GMT
Clarke and Redwood of course entered into a surprise pact in the 1997 leadership election didn’t they?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 29, 2022 10:55:04 GMT
Clarke and Redwood of course entered into a surprise pact in the 1997 leadership election didn’t they? Which very possibly cost the former the leadership. I could see the thinking behind it tbf, but its the sort of thing you do after you have won an election not before. |
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swanarcadian
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Post by swanarcadian on Mar 29, 2022 11:26:35 GMT
Possibly even worse in London, Scotland and Wales. Might have prevented some people voting for the Referendum Party/UKIP and saved some Tory seats that way. Better in areas that were more Eurosceptic.
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Post by jakegb on Mar 29, 2022 17:51:36 GMT
The Tories could well have fallen to 150 seats under a more divisive/right wing leader e.g. Redwood. Though they were unfortunate to lose a few seats by a such a narrow margin to the Lib Dems like Kingston and Surbiton, Torbay, Winchester. They in fact squeaked home against Labour in 12 seats, with three digit majorities, in places like Hexham, Bury St Edmunds and South Dorset. Source: researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP01-38/RP01-38.pdf |
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Post by michaelarden on Mar 31, 2022 22:49:12 GMT
Suspect the Tories would have got around 25% vote share instead of the 30ish they got under major. Both Labour and Lib Dems would have gained share - something like 45/25/20. Could the Lib Dems have ended up close to being the official opposition given the quantity of tactical voting in the election?
Lab 460, Tories 85, Lib Dem 80ish. Redwood was and still is toxic.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 2, 2022 11:51:37 GMT
I think that 1997 would have been (still) worse for the Tories under Redwood, but maybe not *that* much worse. Labour majority of around 200 and a dozen more LibDems, perhaps. (and to swanarcadian - how much "worse" could the Tories have done in Scotland and Wales in that election? In terms of MPs anyway  ) |
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swanarcadian
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Post by swanarcadian on Apr 4, 2022 16:38:11 GMT
(and to swanarcadian - how much "worse" could the Tories have done in Scotland and Wales in that election? In terms of MPs anyway  Not a lot. But the party's vote share could have been lower; indeed it was in Scotland in the four general elections that followed 1997. |
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Post by therealriga on Apr 5, 2022 17:18:28 GMT
It's hard to see any circumstances in which Redwood would have won.
Probably the more interesting question is what would have happened if Major had got a bit less support. Major says he'd set a threshold of 215 votes below which he would have resigned. He just cleared that with 218 votes.
In the event of his resignation do we get Heseltine vs Portillo? Heseltine could possibly have saved a few seats in 1997.
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